Saturday, October 12, 2013

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
October 12th, 2013 
 





David’s Daily Digest

Week 6: Diamonds in the Rough

After five weeks of NFL action if some fantasy owners are anything like me, injuries and poor play are now playing havoc with my weekly line-ups; what's an owner to do. Fortunately for the waiver wire, but when the well starts to run dry and it is amazing how fast that can happen after just five weeks, where do we look for help.

In general I have managed to find early success in most of my fantasy league, but entering week 6 I am seeing some holes here and there that I now need to address. Where do I find my help?

The waiver wire has been a friend this season as it usually has in most, but with the talent well drying up, it's time to start really looking deep for that hidden talent or talent that has yet to shine; or what I like to call "Diamonds in the Rough." There's been some evidence of a few, and with the season moving along and no time to spare I believe now is the time to start making some moves and taking some chances that could pay big dividends.

Last week the Houston Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels for an extended period of time (min 8 weeks) and suddenly Garrett Graham looks like a polished gem. Graham will move into the starting role and likely assume the number tight end position in the passing game. It's not like Graham has been a stranger to the Texans passing game, through five games he has 15 receptions, including 3 touchdowns, and 141 yards receiving on 21 targets. The Texans like to use the tight end a lot and run a lot of sets with multiple tight ends. With Daniels out, Graham should see a significant rise in his targets and greater production. He definitely needs to be owned and could be a diamond that's ready to shine as a low-end TE1 or high TE2 (up to fantasy playoffs).

The season is long, so fortunately if you keep turning stones, you can uncover plenty of hidden talent. Injuries will always play a big part in fantasy and one's misfortune is often another's big break which could be the case for Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas. With a foot injury cutting the season of Julio Jones short, Douglas is suddenly elevated to a fantasy starting role. Through five games Douglas has been relatively quiet, more of a complimentary piece to Jones and (Roddy) White, but could now see his 5.2 targets per game greatly increased. While Douglas may be limited as a scoring threat for standard leagues, he's a diamond that will offer great appeal in PPR leagues and leagues with yardage bonuses.

One more jewel from my notebook is another wide receiver that's there's not a lot of talk about at the moment; the Chargers Vincent Brown. In 2011 Brown came on to the scene and looked like a young up-and-coming talent for the Chargers; that was before injury would end his 2012 campaign after two weeks. Brown is healthy and with the whole complexion of the Chargers receiving core much different now, he has a chance to emerge as one of quarterback Philip Rivers’ go-to receivers. Over the past two weeks Brown has not been lighting it up, but there are signs this kids is warming up; 15 reception and 158 yards receiving on 18 targets. I don't believe these numbers are misleading, Brown has talent and with the lack of a reliable ground game Rivers is going to continue to put the ball in the air. Grab this diamond before his shine is too great to hide.

That's my take.


~David Ortega




Sunday, October 6, 2013

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
October 6th, 2013 
 





David’s Daily Digest

Week 5: My Sunday Lineups

This is just my run-through of who I have in my lineups today and basically what I am expecting (okay maybe hoping-I like to win). I play in 7 H2H fantasy leagues and compete in 6-7 weekly redraft leagues, so I have quite a few fantasy players in action every Sunday. Since my list is long I am not going to review every play, but more or less touch on a few here and there that I find of interest.

My Teams:

One of my notable plays today is wide receiver DeSean Jackson; I have him as a flex in two lineups today which I think is pretty good. Jackson has a great matchup today against a Giants defense that is really struggling. They are ranked 20th against the pass with just 4 sacks this season and allow the 14th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers along with 5 touchdowns. If the Eagles have time to throw, Jackson could be running free all afternoon.

In this same matchup, the lack of pressure from the Giants front four is a big reason why I have quarterback Michael Vick in my lineup today. Vick presents all kinds of matchup issues for opposing defenses and with the Giants allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, this looks to be a tasty matchup (for Vick).

In four of my lineups today, I am starting tight end Antonio Gates. He is healthy this season and the kid looks rejuvenated. He and quarterback Philip Rivers have been fantasy starts all season and against the Raiders this does not change. Gates ranks 11th in the league with 364 yards receiving, which includes two 100 yard receiving days, before 2013 his last 100-yard performance came against the Raiders (back in Jan/2012).

Although I am a Denver Broncos fan and have them as my pick in their matchup today with the Cowboys, I am starting Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray. First, he has looked good thus far this season and second the Broncos are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs (including the 7th most receptions to RBs). This is a game where the Broncos could be up big and players like Murray pick up big yards and a late score in junk time.

These are just a few of my plays today and my thoughts for today’s matchups.

 ~David Ortega