FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2011, Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Frank Gore: A Gold Rush of a Niner
Thus far through 12 weeks of football this season the Niners running back Frank Gore has remained a relatively steady fantasy start for owners throughout, especially over the past month and a half (with the exception of his week 10 early exit). Last week the Niners starting ball carrier was limited to just 39 yards on the ground and 48 yards of offense overall, but that was facing the Baltimore Ravens number three ranked run defense (probably a game you may have considered sitting Gore).

Prior to that the former Miami Hurricane had been running extremely well topping the 100-yard rushing mark in 5 of his last 7 starts and scoring no fewer than 9 fantasy points in six of those games; standard scoring. Gore is the number six leading rusher in the NFL with 909 yards on the ground to go with his 101 receiving yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging a very nice 4.5 yards per carry and has shown great reliability with well over 200 touches this season and just two turnovers. On Sunday Gore will be showcasing his talents against the St. Louis Rams and their 32nd ranked run defense, that allow a league worst 159 yards on the ground.

My Analysis: Gore has been solid this season and on Sunday he has a fantastic matchup against the Rams. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a little shaky turning over the ball over lately with three of his five interceptions this season coming in the last three games. The Niners will likely stick with the ground assault against the league’s worst run defense. In his last two games against the Rams Gore has averaged 142 yards of offense, including 97 yards rushing; he also has three rushing touchdowns. Expect the trend to continue and look for a big game from Gore once again.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 1st, 2011 Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Matthew Stafford: A Young Lion Ready to Roar
The past three weeks for quarterback Matt Stafford and the Lions have not been too kind; the team is 1-2 and Stafford has turned the ball over nine times. After staring out strong this season and coming off a three touchdown and no interception effort against the Broncos in week 8, Stafford has been inconsistent and unlucky. His accuracy may be in question, but with a 65% completion rate, it’s more about decision making than accuracy.

Stafford has also been playing with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, so his nine picks and any inaccuracy from the pocket would be understandable (although he has refuted any notion). Whether is has been his hand or not, something has been wrong with Stafford as of late. Maybe it’s a confidence issue with some of his throws or lack of, but this Sunday night against the Saints it could all change.

Stafford will shed the protective glove and splint he has been wearing over the past several weeks and hoping to return closer to the form that has led him to 26 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards passing. In week 13 he faces a secondary ranked 27th against the pass and a defense that has also allowed 18 touchdowns to just six picks. With an array of weapons like Megatron, Pettigrew, Burleson, and Scheffler, Stafford could be looking at a huge night of passing with lots of success.

My analysis: The Saints defense played from in front most of Monday night allowing the Giants and quarterback Eli Manning to spray the ball around the field to the tune of 400 yards in the air. One thing to note is the defense also had to rely on a lot of blitzing to create pressure, something the Lions will surely be looking for. This Sunday night’s matchup is likely to take on the same look and could lead to a very big passing night for Stafford. The Lions, just like the Giants of late struggle with the ground game (ranked 22nd) and will rely heavily on attacking the Saints suspect secondary. Start Stafford with a lot of confidence.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 30th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ANDRE JOHNSON: To Start or Not-To Start
The Texans All-Pro receiver, Andre Johnson (knee) finally made his return to the field last Sunday against the Jaguars, after missing the past six games. His return was far from triumphant (just two catches for 22 yards), but it was a good sign for fantasy owners who will be hoping to see him return to form in week 14 (during the fantasy playoffs). That’s the good news.

The bad news for fantasy owners hoping to play Johnson now and into the playoffs; who will be under center for the Texans? Following their week 10 in over the Buccaneers, the Texans lost their starter Matt Schaub for the season with a foot injury and just when it looked “all systems go” with back up quarterback Matt Lienart under center, he went down in week 12 with a broken collarbone. Now the Texans are left with an inexperienced rookie quarterback at the helm.

We know that rookie T.J Yates (North Carolina) will be taking the snaps on Sunday, but what we don’t know is how this is going to impact the offense and the passing game for fantasy owners. For those of us that have been riding all season long without one of our biggest weapons (Johnson), we could be submitting our lineups on Sunday with one of our biggest guns firing blanks or will he.

I am always the optimist and when I consider how high I drafted Johnson back in August, I can’t imagine sitting him on Sunday and seeing my fantasy team go down without all of my best players. For some it may look like fantasy-suicide, but is it really. On Sunday when Yates entered the game Johnson had only been targeted just once, a play in the first half that was nullified because of a penalty. In the second half Yates would look for #80 three times connecting twice for 22 yards.

While these numbers are nowhere near staggering it should be mentioned also that the Texans where well in control leading 20-10 and did not have to lean much on the pass. So if you project these numbers some, if Yates had started the game and the Jaguars offense been a little more effective in the early going, Johnson may have had a chance to see as many as six to seven targets (maybe a couple more in the early going) throughout the game.

My Analysis: This Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons would appear to pit the Texans up against an offense that could force them to be a little less conservative and have to keep pace. I would not expect a shoot-out of any sort, but the Falcons will certainly be more capable of putting up more than 13 points. Yates is going to have to stand in the pocket and make some throws and from we saw in week 12, he is more than capable of finding AJ. I would not expect a big game necessarily from Johnson, but I would not be surprised to see as many as 7-9 targets would come mean a very decent fantasy out-put; especially with this fantasy beast. Start him!


By David Ortega