Thursday Edition
November 22nd, 2012
Suicide Fantasy Football
Week 12
Last week my team took a bit of a dive (less than 100 points, season low), some of the low-lights include; a surprising let down by the Texans defense (only 3 points). My two receivers (Denarius Moore and Steve Smith) totaled just 12 points. Moore was completely ineffective finishing with one catch for 9 yards and adding one carry for -5 yards. Steve Smith was not a whole lot better finishing his day with 5 grabs for 61 yards (hardly much to get excited about).
The one high note was quarterback Carson Palmer posting 20 points with 312 yards passing and two touchdowns; it was his 5th 300-yard passing game this season and third in a row. My place kicker of choice, Matt Prater also came through with 12 points; not big, but a nice contribution.
Needless to say with that bump in the road my team slipped a few spots, but the top is still in sight and with another week of play it’s time to get moving back in the right direction.
Here’s my week 12 picks;
My Line-up
Quarterback:
The Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll over his past seven games tossing 24 touchdowns to only four interceptions. This week he will match up against the Giants 25th ranked pass defense which could be the recipe for a huge game. The Giants defense allows the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has surrendered 17 touchdowns this season. I like Rodgers to attack the Giants secondary early and often; expect big numbers this week.
Running Backs:
With injuries playing a big part of the game, this week I am rolling with the rookie in Denver running back Ronnie Hillman. Last Sunday the Broncos lost starter Willis McGahee to injury (torn MCL) and will now turn to the rookie to pick up the slack. Hillman will be part of a timeshare, but with his explosiveness and lightning speed, I like him to take the lead and be very productive in the Broncos backfield. He’ll get his first shot against the Chiefs 9th ranked run defense this Sunday. With Peyton Manning drawing a lot of attention and focus from the D, all Hillman will need is a small seam or crack in the defense and he can turn it into a big play.
My other running back is the Steelers Jonathan Dwyer who will share time as well this Sunday. Last Sunday night Dwyer proved to be the more effective runner in the Steelers backfield and whether he starts or not, he’ll get his share of carries in week 12. Dywer has emerged as the team’s leading rusher and should lead the way this Sunday. The Steelers will face the Browns 24th ranked run defense on Sunday and Dwyer will have an opportunity to take his shots at a defense that allows the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. This doesn’t have the making of a huge day, but Dwyer should be solid as a strong flex this week.
Wide Receivers:
It’s Thanksgiving and if you own Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant, you are thankful for last Sunday’s performance against the Browns. This week Bryant will be part of the Thanksgiving Thursday schedule and could give owners plenty more to be thankful for when he faces the Redskins 29th ranked pass defense. Bryant is second on the team with 86 targets this season and has emerged as quarterback Tony Romos’ primary weapon. Bryant has scored in each of his last two starts, he’s coming off a big performance, and facing the Redskins secondary that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers he looks primed for a great Thanksgiving day performance.
My second receiver of choice is simply a “riding the hot hand” move with a good match up this Sunday; Jaguars wide receiver Justin Blackmon. The rookie receiver is coming up a huge day against the Texans in week 11 with over 200 yards receiving on 7 receptions. Blackmon’s breakout game last week came with quarterback Chad Henne under center and now with Henne the starter, I like the chances of continued success. Blackmon will also face the Titans 26 ranked pass defense that allows the 14th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Tight End:
The Broncos passing offense has been automatic and solid this season under the direction of quarterback Peyton Manning ranked 5th in the league. In his first season with the Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme is also enjoying modest success as one of Mannings’ weapons. Manning spreads the ball around quite a bit these days, but Tamme will still see his normal 5-6 targets and could steal a red zone grab. He’s only scored once this season, while his teammate tight end Joel Dreesen has scored four times; Tamme is due to cash in.
Place Kicker:
The Bengals will host the Raiders this Sunday and kicker Mike Nugent should see plenty of opportunities to chip in a number of kicks against one of the leagues worst defenses. The Raiders have allowed the most points this season (32.2 per game) and rank 24th in total yards allowed. At home I like the Bengals to be able to move the ball with great success setting up some easy shots for Nugent.
Team Defense:
The Rams are the defense of choice this week. On the road facing the Cardinals, the defense ranked 11th in total yards allowed this season will look to get their team back on track. The Rams have a pretty good pass rush with 29 sacks this season and with the recent quarterback struggles the Cardinals have had, this could be a good match up for the Rams.
These are my picks for week 12.
By David Ortega
