FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition

September 12th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 2 Values

Diamonds or Coal

After one week you are already rethinking your fantasy football draft aren’t you? Well let’s not go into panic mode just yet. The season is young and we’re only one week in; there are plenty of fixes available and plenty of diamonds in the rough to find.

I was able to take in quite a few games last weekend and let’s just say I saw plenty and took notes. Players like Steve Smith (24.8 fantasy points*) in Baltimore and Jake Locker (23.4 fantasy points*) in Tennessee were pleasant surprises with their week one performances, as well as Arizona’s Carson Palmer (24.3 fantasy points*) and Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins (18.9 fantasy points*). These all were players that were likely taken later in drafts and not started in week one, but plays that could help your fantasy team in week two.

Diamonds…

A couple of more diamonds found from week one that could give your lineup a needed boost would include the Falcons wide receiver-return man Devin Hester. With his six targets in week one, Hester was clearly a part of the passing game and he took advantage of those opportunities; the speedster hauled in 5 passes for 99 yards. This kind of production could land Hester in your lineup this Sunday as a nice flex option.

This week the Niners will be at home to face a Bears defense that allowed over 190 yards rushing in week one. Starting running back Frank Gore should benefit from the week two matchup, but don’t expect the Niners to overwork the 31 year-old ball carrier. Rookie running back Carlos Hyde has been impressive and productive rushing for 50 yards and a score off seven carries in week one. The Niners will definitely run the ball on Sunday and Hyde should figure in nicely with double-digit carries; he should be a solid flex this week.

In week one the Cowboys defense had trouble keeping up with the Niners tight end Vernon Davis (two touchdown receptions in week one). This week former Niners tight end Delanie Walker will get his shot at the Cowboys secondary. Walker is coming off a nice week one performance (3 receptions, 37 yards receiving, and a touchdown) and could follow it with a solid week two. Fantasy owners looking for tight end help should insert Walker here.

Coal….

The Rams offense looked anemic in week one only producing 6 points. One of the reasons for the deficiency is their lack of a running game and absence of wide receiver Kenny Britt. There was some talk during the preseason suggesting Britt could make a rebound in 2014 and while we are only in week one, three targets and zero receptions is definitely not the start he or fantasy owners was looking for. Britt should not be owned until we see some presence of a receiver and consistency.

These are just my takes for week 2.

*standard one point PPR

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 9th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 1 Recap

Sorting through the Debris

The fantasy football roller-coaster is just starting to pick up speed and with one week in the books, there’s so much to cover and talk about. We have to look at who did what, who was a bust, which sleepers emerged, and which studs were on par this past Sunday. Was there real concern in the Steelers backfield with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarette Blount splitting carries, who is the real feature back in New England, and with Wes Welker missing which Broncos receiver emerged to pick up the slack?

With all of this to sort through it can become real over-whelming for fantasy owners looking to rebound from their week one debacle or continue their winning ways following a season opening win. There’s never too much information when it comes to fantasy football, just sometimes we need to take a minute to sort through the debris and see a clear picture.

The refuse…

With Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell seeing the bulk of work (27 touches) in week one, looks like fantasy owners that drafted running back LeGarrette Blount (4 touches) may have to rethink their strategy. He did sneak in a score, but going forward if he is limited to few touches, owners can’t count on consistent production.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Lions rookie tight end Eric Ebron, but for now that’s all there is. Ebron was targeted just twice and did not record a catch. He’s not worth owning at this time; at least not until fantasy owners see something.

The Cardinals running back Andre Ellington saw plenty of action on Monday night; 18 touches. Back-up running back Jonathan Dwyer saw about the most action he might see all season; 9 touches for 28 yards. You can toss Dwyer back into the pile.

The Salvage….

The Ravens basically benched running back Bernard Pierce after fumbling, which opened the door for running back Justin Forsett. The journeyman back finished with 16 touches, which included 6 targets. Going forward, in light of the Ray Rice loss Forsett should continue to see plenty of action as long as he responds as he did in week one; he had 84 total yards and a score.

The Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes his receiver Antonio Brown, but his second year wideout Marcus Wheaton could quickly become his second favorite. Wheaton has great speed and tremendous upside, along with his seven targets (tied for most on team) on Sunday he looks to be busy fantasy receiver as well. Wheaton is probably a low WR3 or flex at the moment, but should be owned.

So much for the worry surrounding Texans receiver Andre Johnson; he was a bit quiet on Sunday, but still turned in a decent fantasy day with six receptions for 93 yards. His nine targets should be a real indicator he’s still a safe fantasy play on Sunday.

The Broncos just have too many weapons and with Wes Welker out, quarterback Peyton Manning just dipped into his receiving depth targeting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders nine times. Sanders also added a carry for 11 yards. He’s a safe weekly play as a mid flex or high WR3.

Lastly, I heard about this kid early last week, the Saints rookie receiver Brandin Cooks and what I saw on Sunday confirmed the deal. Cooks is a special talent that we’ll continue to see lots of moving forward. On Sunday he totaled 95 yards with one receiving touchdown on 8 touches. In the Saints explosive pass game Cooks should be a gamer. Owners may want to temper their expectations momentarily until we see a larger sample, but he should be a safe flex for now.

These are just some of my takes for the Week 1 recap.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition

September 7th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Numbers to help the Cause

With the Week 1 Sunday kickoff just hours away, fantasy owners are scrambling to make those last minutes tweaks to their lineups. If you are like me, I am always looking for data and numbers to help me find the best plays for Sunday.

Here are some of the numbers you should know for week 1;

Even though the Rob Ryan Saints defense only allowed the 5^th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has had success in the past throwing the ball. In 4 of his last 6 starts versus the Saints Ryan has thrown for more than 300 yards. In his one game last season against the Saints when he had all of his weapons Ryan also completed 65 percent of his passes and threw two touchdowns.

Facing the Ravens defense at home today, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton may be one to avoid. In his two starts last season against Baltimore Dalton has been picked off seven times, including four at home in the finale.

The Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was coming off the board as a mid QB-2 in most drafts and even later in some. He’s been a little overlooked, but in 2013 in the second half of the season Palmer showed some glimmer. In his last 8 starts he completed over 60 percent of his passes in five of those, throwing multiple touchdowns in 5 of those contests as well. Palmers’ numbers down the stretch were not out of this world, but they should not be overlooked; 295 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Monday night he’ll face the Chargers secondary that allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Bills will use a committee of both running back CJ Spiller and running back Fred Jackson (both were top 30 running backs in fantasy last season). Even with a lesser experienced quarterback (E.J. Manuel) under center, both should find success on the ground facing the Bears defense today. Last season Chicago allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs, including 19 rushing touchdowns, 2^nd most. Both Spiller and Jackson should be safe plays today.

There’s been little talk about Texans running back Arian Foster, and more importantly no talk about any injuries. A healthy Foster facing a suspect Redskins run defense could spell for a big day. Foster has the talent to blow up and with the Redskins allowing the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 20 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) last season, he could be fantasy gold.

Just some numbers to know for Sunday week 1.

~David Ortega