FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS & WHIFFS (WEEK 10)

November 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs & Wins

(NFL Week 10)

Week 10 was not a notable one for success, as I did not win any of the lotteries or the Millionaire Makers on DraftKings. I did however enjoy some personal fantasy success in my home leagues setting the weekly high in one, so there’s that. Even though I didn’t win big at the (fantasy football) track, I did get a few things right.

Week 10 Wins

Jahmyr Gibb (Lions) The rookie running back finished the week as the fantasy RB2, totaling 112 yards with two rushing touchdowns.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals) The Bengals wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR10, posting 8 receptions with 117 yards receiving.

Tank Dell (Texans) The Texans rookie wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR12, recording 6 catches for 56 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Noah Brown (Texans) The Texans wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR6, hauling in 7 passes for 172 yards receiving.

Trenton Irwin (Bengals) The Bengals wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR26, completing two grabs for 54 yards, including a 32-yard touchdown score.

Week 10 Whiffs

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) The Titans wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR56, catching just 3 passes for 27 yards. This was Hopkins second dud in his last four games.

Brandon Powell (Vikings) Considering the absence of wide receiver KJ Osborn in addition to wide receiver Justin Jefferson still out, although the expectations weren’t high Powell’s week 10 numbers were disappointing. He finished the week as the fantasy WR43, collecting 4 passes for 35 yards receiving.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEKLY AWARDS (WEEK 8)

November 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Weekly Awards

The Weekly Honors for some of the top performances from Week 8.

AFC Offensive Player of the Week

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans, WR)

*6 targets

*4 receptions

*128 yards receiving

*21.3 yards per target

*32 yards per reception

* three touchdowns

*34.8 fantasy points (ppr)

AFC Defensive Player of the Week

George Karlaftis (Chiefs, DL)

*4 solo tackles

*3 assists

*1 tackle for loss

*2.5 sacks

*3 QB hits

*1 forced fumble

NFC Offensive Player of the Week

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys, WR)

*14 targets

*12 receptions

*158 yards receiving

*11.3 yards per target

*13.2 yards per reception

*Two touchdowns

*12 yards rushing

*41 fantasy points

NFC Defensive Player of the Week

Kayvon Thibodeaux (Giants, LB)

*6 solo tackles

*3 assists

*3 tackles for loss

*3 sacks

*3 QB hits

*1 forced fumble

The Future NFL stars today.

Rookie Offensive Player of the Week

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions, RB)

*26 carries

*152 yards rushing

*5.8 yards per carry

*1 rushing touchdown

*5 receptions

*37 yards receiving

*29.9 fantasy points

Rookie Defensive Player of the Week

Tyrique Stevenson (Bears, DB)

*10 solo tackles

*2 assists

*11 fantasy points

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

November 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

Tonight’s matchup between the Titans and Steelers doesn’t have too many hot takes, but it does offer some intrigue with potentially some new faces on the field. While the Steelers starting quarterback Kenny Pickett has a chance to play, the Titans will be rolling the dice with rookie quarterback Will Levis.

Levis is coming off a phenomenal debut last Sunday, when he completed 65.5% of his passes for 238 yards and touchdowns. With the short week and limited film study time available, I don’t see the Steelers defense being able to throw a lot of exotic looks or too much at the rook. We could see another strong performance against the league's 24th ranked pass defense.

MY DFS STACK PLAY

(QB-Will Levis and WR-DeAndre Hopkins)

Levis is coming off a strong performance where he hooked up with his primary receiving weapon, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The two were highly efficient and explosive in Week 8, connecting on 4 of 6 passes for 128 yards and three scores. This connection seems like a lock tonight against a suspect secondary that has been had by Jaguars wide receivers Calvin Ridley & Christina Kirk in Week 8 (10 receptions/129 yards receiving), Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua in week 7 (8 receptions/154 yards receiving), and Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers in Week 6 (6 receptions/50 yards receiving/1 touchdown).

I can see many entrants running with this stack tonight, so a possible change of direction to consider would be the Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. He was second on the team last week with 5 targets and could be effective tonight against the Steelers defense that surrendered 11 receptions to the tight end last week.

Looking to go against the grain, consider the Steelers Najee Harris tonight, but temper expectations. In two of their last three games the Titans defense has allowed 100 or more yards rushing..

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK 8)

October 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting 

(Week 8 Takeaways)

After spending the whole day (as I usually do) on Sunday watching all the games, I came away with a few questions and observations. These are some of the things I think are worth noting.

1. Another Offensive dud from the Packers.

A lot of fingers will point at quarterback Jordan Love and for good reason, but I am not going to pile on. Sure there have been some mistakes and bad throws, but I also believe a big contributing factor to the Packers bad play can be correlated to ultra conservative and predictable play calling to open the game and the absence and non-use of running back Aaron Jones. Described as one of the most explosive running backs in the game, he is only averaging 11 touches per game his last two games.Until Jones is featured more prominently in the offense, it could tough treading for the Pack’s offense moving forward.

2. D-Hop still has plenty of Pop.

Give him a calm, cool, collected quarterback with poise in the pocket and Hopkins will give you a big-time game in return. That’s what happened on Sunday as Hopkins was the recipient of some very good quarterback play from rookie Will Levis. Hopkins only needed 4 catches to do serious damage in Week 8; 4 receptions for 128 yards receiving and three touchdowns. As long as he remains healthy, if he gets close to this type of QB play he’s a borderline WR-1 in the 2nd half of the season.

3. The Giants offense is awful.

I actually have a couple of takeaways from the Battle for New York. First, the Giants passing game was atrocious. Some may excuse it due to bad weather, but it’s been bad all season. Through 8 games this season, the Giants have just 4 passing touchdowns. Until we see great improvement, it’s best to avoid this catastrophe. 

Along with the offense, tight end Darren Waller left the game early on Sunday with a hamstring injury. Waller has been boom or bust and dealing with injuries most of the season. This is another situation best to avoid until Waller is 100%.

4. Javonte Williams is back.

The Broncos running back is coming off an ACL injury in Week 4 of last year and while there have been a few signs here and there throughout this season, Williams finally showed he is back on Sunday. Williams didn’t break any stat records, but he did put in a lot of work. Williams carried the rock 27 times and finished the day with a career high 30 touches for 98 total yards. Williams ran hard and looked like his pre-injury self. Next up, the big game.

5. Joe Cool is heating up.

With a tough road matchup with San Francisco on Sunday, Joe Burrow and the Bengals rolled into town and then rolled the Niners. Burrow has been heating up of late, with 8 touchdowns passes over his last three, leading the Bengals to three straight wins, including 4 of 5. With his wide receiver Tee Higgins returning close to form and Ja’Marr Chase doing what he does, Burrow could just be getting started.

6. The Return of Austin Ekeler.

The Chargers running back two games removed from his return from injury, looked like the old Ekeler fantasy managers have come to expect. After averaging 54 yards and 16.5 touches with no scores his past two games, Ekeler turned up huge Sunday night against the Bears. The Chargers ball carrier totaled 23 touches (15 carries, 8 catches) for 123 yards of offense (29 run, 94 receive) with a touchdown. Ekeler was a featured part of the pass game and was more than effective, something fantasy managers hope to see continue going forward.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 6 STARTS & SITS

October 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 6: 

Starts & Sits

Each week fantasy owners are going to be faced with the decision of whether to start or sit some of the fringe players whose fantasy scoring of late and for the season is not quite on par as a starter. A slow start this season, a series of bad matchups, or just over-hyped, whatever the reason for the fringe players performances owners will still need to make the call to roll the dice or move along.

There are 14 games on the remaining schedule for Week 6 and 13 are on the slate for Sunday. And don’t forget the early game in London between the Ravens and Titans. Here are my Week 6, Starts and Sits.

Week 6 Starts

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - The Jaguars quarterback has yet to break out this season, but he did have one of his best games for yards last week, passing for over 300-yards. Lawrence will square off against a Colts defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings passer will face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most passing yards this season and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) - He’s coming off a strong Week 5 performance and should have his full complement of weapons this week with the return of Mike Evans.

Sam Howell (Commanders) - In this road matchup with the Falcons, Howell and the Commanders may have to lean more on the passing game. 92 pass attempts for Howell in his past two starts.

Kyren Williams (Rams) - Williams is the fantasy RB11. This week he gets the Cardinals run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) - The Eagles runner has cooled off the past couple of weeks, but a matchup with the Jets could get things heated once again. Jets allow over 4.0 yards per carry and the 9th most fantasy points to opposing runners.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) - The Ravens receiver has been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks and is averaging double digit fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Coming off his best game of the season in week 5 with 8 receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets, Hopkins will look to keep it going against a Ravens secondary that has allowed 6th most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end has been steady averaging 7 targets per game for the last three weeks.

 

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - Ertz has a nice matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Week 6 Sits

Jared Goff (Lions) - A tough road matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The Texans starter came back to earth last week and has another tough matchup this week against the Saints defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) - White has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s best run defenses this season. The Lions have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and 3rd fewest per carry this season.

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (Browns) - Without their starting quarterback, this offense could really struggle and with the 49ers defense playing well, I just don’t trust this backfield.

Amari Cooper (Browns) - It’s not enough that the Browns are facing the 49ers (4th best defense in the league), but they will be without starter Deshaun Watson. It’s hard to sit Cooper, but I wouldn't expect much from him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) - After a hot start this season, Henry has gone cold along with the Patriots offense. For now the bench is the best place until the offense starts to show more consistency.

Darren Waller (Giants) - The Giants will be without the services of starting quarterback Daniel Jones and Waller (groin) popped up on the injury report this week.  It will be tough to trust him if he is able to play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 15th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Morning Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 2)

(Favorable Matchups)

After one week of data it doesn’t get any easier for fantasy owners to decide who to start and who to sit, but the information does help. So let’s take a look at the week 2 matchups and set our lineups for Sunday.

QB-Jared Goff (Lions) - Coming off a week 1 win over the defending champion Chiefs, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will be playing with a lot of confidence in this week 2 matchup. Goff and company will square off against a Seahawks defense that allowed 334 yards passing (3rd most) in week one. This could be a big afternoon for Goff.

RB-Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - Considering his usage in the passing game in week one, this Sunday against the Packers could be a big afternoon for the Rookie. Robinson was targeted six times in week one and will face a Packers defense that allowed 11 receptions (2nd most) last week. The Falcons rookie should have another productive Sunday.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Just playing the numbers with this call. Last week Hopkins was heavily targeted and no reason it should not continue. This Sunday the Titans will face a Chargers secondary that surrendered the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Hopkins to turn in another busy Sunday.

WR-Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) - After a quiet week one, this sets up to be a great bounce back game for Chase and the Bengals offense. In two games versus the Ravens last season Chase was targeted 25 times, so the elite wideout can be expected to be heavily involved in the passing game this week.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - The Jags tight end was a bit quiet in week one, but still finished as the No.5 fantasy tight end with 5 catches for 49 yards. This week Engram will take his shot at the Chiefs defense that surrendered 7 catches (tied for 3rd most) last week to the opposing tight end. Last postseason, the Chiefs were able to limit Engram to 31 yards receiving, but that was the pre-Ridley era. Results this Sunday should be very different.

These are not necessarily considered week 2 start’ems, as some are of course already locked in your lineups as they should be. These are rather my predictions or feelings about their respective week 2 matchups and outcomes this weekend. 

These are my week 2 favorites with some great matchups.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 13th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

In fantasy football luck plays its part, but success is all about chances. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 1

Top 5 WR

1. Tyreek Hill (15)

2. Puka Nacua (15)

3. Stefon Diggs (13)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (13)

5. Justin Jefferson (12)

Stefon Diggs displayed why he’s an elite receiver in the NFL turning in another 100-yard receiving performance with 10 receptions and a score. He will finish as a Top-5 fantasy receiver in 2023 at this pace.

Top 5 TE

1. Zach Ertz (10)

2. TJ Hockenson (9)

3. Logan Thomas (8)

4. Hayden Hurst (7)

5. Cole Kmet (7)

The overall production was a bit light, but with the10 targets on Sunday tight end Zach Ertz could easily bounce back and very soon. The Cardinals air attack may continue to stall a bit here in the early season, but as long the volume is there Ertz could be fantasy relevant soon.

Top 5 RB

1. Roschon Johnson (7)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (7)

3. Bijan Robinson (6)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson (6)

5. James Cook (6)

Running back James Cook was lead back on Monday night and dominated the Bills backfield in snaps and touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and as long as this volume continues, he’s in line for some big games in the future.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 1

Top 5 RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (25)

2. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

3. Nick Chubb (22)

4. Cam Akers (22)

5. Miles Sanders (22)

Cam Akers was ineffective on Sunday against the Seahawks only totaling 29 yards on the ground, but you can't ignore his usage. Despite the tough treading, the Rams stayed with Akers. His 22 carries ranked tied for the most in week 1 and with that kind of work, fantasy owners can expect better outputs from Akers (so long as the workload continues).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega