FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 3)

So week 3 was an unforgettable week for fantasy owners, filled with some generational performances that will go down in history. If you had players like Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams in your lineup, you are probably smiling looking at your week 3 outcome.

If by chance you had any of these players in your lineups, your happiness does not exist. These were my Week 3 whiffs.

Ridder has a rough time in the Motor City.

QB-Desmond Ridder (QB26) - The Rookie quarterback could not take his show on the road to Detroit. The Lions defense stepped up and gave him lots of trouble, sacking Ridder seven times. After a strong week 2 performance (fantasy QB12), Ridder posted a dud on the road passing for 201 yards, no touchdowns and a fumble lost.

Following his Week 2 dud, definitely expected better.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (QB17) - It wasn't a terrible day for the Jaguars signal caller, but his 279 yards passing with one touchdown pass and pick for the QB17 spot is not good enough for owners that drafted him as a fringe QB1. 

With the matchup he had, expected better numbers

RB-Najee Harris (RB34) - The Steelers running back plodded his way to 65 yards on the ground on 19 carries. He recorded zero catches and was only targeted once. It’s almost time to leave Harris on your bench, almost.

Did not expect the team’s leading receiver to disappear.

WR-Nico Collins (WR66) - After two weeks, Collins was starting to look like a locked-in WR1. On Sunday he was only targeted three times. Catching 2 passes for 34 yards, which is a little concerning. At this point he still needs to be in lineups.

Still getting the targets, just not the numbers.

WR-Calvin Ridley (WR58) - After laying an egg at home in Week 2, the Jaguars offense came back and laid another in week 3. Ridley followed up his week 2 disappointing stat line with another on Sunday. Ridley only registered three receptions for 40 yards, but he was targeted another 7 times. His production has been anemic, but the opportunity is there.

Wasn’t expecting the top spot, but Top-12.

TE-Hunter Henry (TE25) - After consecutive weeks finishing as the fantasy TE1, Henry came back to earth. The Patriots tight end only registered two receptions in week 3 on 5 targets. His 3.7 fantasy points finished outside the top 20 for the week.

Expected Schultz to play a bigger role in the passing game.

TE-Dalton Schultz (TE43) - The Texans tight end was only targeted three times on Sunday, recording a single catch for 9 yards, in a game the team won. I certainly didn’t expect this low output from Schultz. This was a big whiff in week 3. 

I was expecting Hayden to be more involved.

TE-Hayden Hurst (TE37) - The Panthers tight end was quiet on Sunday recording one catch for 11 yards. This was the second straight game where Hurst has finished outside the top-30 fantasy tight ends. He can be dropped.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 23rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week two was a rough week for DFS picks. The Lions connection (Goff-to-St.Brown) fared well, but Travis Etienne Jr, Darnell Mooney (injured), and Adam Trautman all fell flat in week 2. The Chiefs decided to play good defense on the road and shut down Etienne, Mooney ended up pulling a now show, and Trautman became the forgotten man in Denver. 

Even when you’re down, you gotta look up and move on.

Now looking forward to NFL Sunday, Week 3 I am planning my redemption and huge bounce back with some strong plays. These are players that deserve Week 3 consideration.

QB-Trevor Lawrence ($6800) - I love this game as a great bounce back opportunity for Lawrence and company. Lawrence, currently the fantasy QB22, is home again this week and faces a Texans defense that is allowing a high 76.3 completion rate through the first two weeks. Lawrence and the offense were off last week against the Chiefs defense, but will look to get right in this one by taking advantage of the Texans deficiency in the Red Zone, 7 touchdowns allowed in 9 trips.

RB-Tony Pollard ($8000) - The Cowboys running back is currently the fantasy RB4 with 191 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns. Through the team’s first two games Pollard has been heavily involved with 50 touches (25 avg/game), so I expect to see this continue on Sunday. The Cardinals defense has been stingy thus far in two games this season, but they have also allowed three total touchdowns (1 rush, 2 rec) to opposing running backs. I am betting on Pollard’s volume.

WR-Calvin Ridley ($7200) - I like this stack, Ridley paired with Lawrence on Sunday. Last week the two weren’t in sync, only connected twice for 32 yards on 8 targets. I am betting these two will get this corrected on Sunday and capitalize against the Texans secondary that allows the third highest rate of completion to wide receivers.

WR-Nico Collins ($5300) - Clearly Collins is greatly underpriced, which is our win. Through two weeks of action he ranks as fantasy WR7. Averaging 10 targets per game thus far this season, the volume is there for Collins to produce. I love the matchup in a contest where the Texans could be playing from behind and have to air it out more.

TE-Hayden Hurst ($3800) - The return of the “Red Rifle” (Andy Dalton) this week has me thinking check down and safely value. Enter Hayden Hurst, currently fantasy TE7. He’s more than a capable receiver, as evidenced in his week one outing where he was targeted 7 times, caught five balls for 41 yards and one touchdown. With Dalton under center, I see the tight end getting more usage on Sunday.

These are my favorite plays for Week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 13th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

In fantasy football luck plays its part, but success is all about chances. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 1

Top 5 WR

1. Tyreek Hill (15)

2. Puka Nacua (15)

3. Stefon Diggs (13)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (13)

5. Justin Jefferson (12)

Stefon Diggs displayed why he’s an elite receiver in the NFL turning in another 100-yard receiving performance with 10 receptions and a score. He will finish as a Top-5 fantasy receiver in 2023 at this pace.

Top 5 TE

1. Zach Ertz (10)

2. TJ Hockenson (9)

3. Logan Thomas (8)

4. Hayden Hurst (7)

5. Cole Kmet (7)

The overall production was a bit light, but with the10 targets on Sunday tight end Zach Ertz could easily bounce back and very soon. The Cardinals air attack may continue to stall a bit here in the early season, but as long the volume is there Ertz could be fantasy relevant soon.

Top 5 RB

1. Roschon Johnson (7)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (7)

3. Bijan Robinson (6)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson (6)

5. James Cook (6)

Running back James Cook was lead back on Monday night and dominated the Bills backfield in snaps and touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and as long as this volume continues, he’s in line for some big games in the future.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 1

Top 5 RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (25)

2. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

3. Nick Chubb (22)

4. Cam Akers (22)

5. Miles Sanders (22)

Cam Akers was ineffective on Sunday against the Seahawks only totaling 29 yards on the ground, but you can't ignore his usage. Despite the tough treading, the Rams stayed with Akers. His 22 carries ranked tied for the most in week 1 and with that kind of work, fantasy owners can expect better outputs from Akers (so long as the workload continues).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega