FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY FANTASY FIXX

November 18th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

My Weekly DFS Favorites

I just can’t get enough fantasy football and over the next 8 days, we’re going to enjoy three days with multiple games, enough to fill the slate and provide that desired fantasy fix. In less than 12 hours, it’s DFS time Week 11 and here are my favorites for tomorrow.

$7300-KD, Dak Prescott (Cowboys) The Cowboys signal caller has been on a tear over the past three weeks. Prescott is averaging 360.7 yards passing per game while completing 73.0% of his passes, and tossing 11 touchdowns. The Panthers defense has been stingy against opposing quarterbacks for the most part this season, but have finished in the bottom five for the week against the Lions and Dolphins. Prescott and company could likely put them there once again.

$6400-DK, Breece Hall (Jets) The Jets ball carrier hasn’t been setting the fantasy world on fire as of late, but he continues to see a steady workload, which should bode well for his Week 11 matchup with the Bills. In his last 5 games, Hall has seen no fewer than 16 touches per game, averaging 19.2 touches per game recording 311 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 204 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. He’s a solid RB-2 in Week 11. 

$7200-DK, Travis Etienne Jr (Jaguars) The Jags runner was slowed last week in a lopsided loss to the Niners, but Week 11 sets up for a bounce back game. Before last week, Etienne entered the contest averaging 20+ carries per game in his prior 4 games totaling 323 yards on the ground. He’s an RB-1 fantasy play this week.

$6200-DK, Amari Cooper (Browns) In his three games with PJ Walker as the primary passer (weeks 6,7 & 8), Cooper has averaged 9.0 targets per contest while totaling 12 receptions, for 219 yards receiving, and 18.25 yards per reception. Facing the Steelers 27th ranked secondary (DraftKings) versus opposing wide receivers, Cooper is a low-end WR2.

$7200-DK, Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) At his price level on Draftkings, Aiyuk is a very appealing play this week matched up against the Buccaneers. The Bucs rank 29th (DK) versus opposing wide receivers and Aiyuk has been consistent averaging 4.3 receptions, 73.7 yards receiving with one touchdown over his last three games. He’s a strong WR-2 in Week 11.

$7100-DK, Puka Nacua (Rams) Set to play on Sunday after returning to full participation in practice this week, Puka is the better value between he and (Cooper) Kupp. In his last four games Puka has enjoyed no fewer than 7 targets per game. With a Week 11 matchup against the Seahawks 19th ranked secondary (DK), Nacua should be a borderline WR-1/WR-2 on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SATURDAY (FF) QUICK TAKES

October 28, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Quick Takes

Rams vs Cowboys Matchup

The Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (fantasy WR7 - ppr) has collected 58 receptions for 752 yards receiving this season. He's a must-start every week.

Vikings vs Packers Matchup

The Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison is averaging 5.3 receptions for 71.7 yards and better than a touchdown over his last three games. He's a must-start every week.

Falcons vs Titans Matchup

The Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has been the fantasy QB7 over the last three weeks averaging 295 yards passing, 1 touchdowns, and 22 yards rushing per game. He's in play in 2-QB and deeper leagues.

Saints vs Colts Matchup

The Saints running back Alvin Kamara is averaging 26 touches and 118 yards of offense over his last three games played. He's the fantasy RB3 during this stretch. A must-start matchup for Week 8

Patriots vs Dolphins Matchup

The Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has totaled 53 receptions for 902 yards receiving and 7 scores this season. He is the fantasy WR1. He's forever locked in.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

October 11th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

5 weeks in and with week 6 on the horizon, there’s still one formula to success in fantasy football. Your guy needs to get the ball. In fantasy football luck will always play its part, but success is all about chances and opportunities. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 5

Top 10 WR

1. Ja’Marr Chase (19)

2. Adam Thielen (13)

3. Cooper Kupp (12)

4. Stefon Diggs (11)

5. DeAndre Hopkins (11)

6. Puka Nacua (11)

7. Zay Flowers (11)

8. DJ Moore (10)

9. George Pickens (10)

10. Jakobi Myers (10)

It looks like the Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp didn’t skip a beat in his week 5 return. But more importantly for fantasy owners, it appears the other Rams receiver Puka Nacua was able to continue his high volume assault in the passing game. Through five games Nacua leads the NFL with 63 targets.

Top 10 TE

1. Travis Kelce (11)

2. Logan Thomas (11)

3. Kyle Pitts (11)

4. Darren Waller (11)

5.Dalton Schultz (10)

6. Mark Andrews (10)

7. Dallas Goedert (9)

8. Chigoziem Okonkwo (9)

9. TJ Hockenson (8)

10. Evan Engram (8)

And just like that the effect of Pop-icon, American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift has not affected Travis Kelce’s game. Another strong performance from the Chief’s tight end in week 5, has him back on top of the fantasy tight end pedestal. Kelce ranks second among tight ends with 37 targets this season and over the past three weeks he ranks 1st with 23 receptions, 2nd with 196 yards receiving. His three receiving touchdowns is also tied for the league lead among tight ends.

Top 10 RB

1. David Montgomery (6)

2. D’Andre Swift (6)

3. Antonio Gibson (6)

4. Travis Etienne Jr (5)

5. Josh Jacobs (5)

6. Tyjae Spears (5)

7. Samaje Perine (5)

8. Tony Pollard (5)

9. Patrick Taylor (5)

10. Jaleel McLaughlin (4)

The Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is starting to look more and more like the league’s leading rusher from a year ago, but it is apparent he has elevated his pass receiving skills this season. It is evident with his 30 targets (most among running backs) and 23 receptions this season, he is also being featured more in the passing game. Last season Jacobs caught 53 balls and currently he is on a pass to exceed 75 catches.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 5

Top 10 RB

1. Travis Etienne Jr (30)

2. Joe Mixon (29)

3. Derrick Henry (28)

4. Zack Moss (25)

5. Breece Hall (25)

6. Alvin Kamara (25)

7. Josh Jacobs (25)

8. D’Andre Swift (23)

9. David Montgomery (21)

10. Christian McCaffrey (21)

Over the past two weeks, since he returned to action following his three-game suspension, the Saints running back Alvin Kamara is averaging 24.5 touches per game (ranks 4th among running backs). As a result of this high-volume workload, Kamara has totaled 181 yards of offense, caught 16 passes, and scored one rushing touchdown, making him the fantasy RB8 in that span.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK5)

October 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

Looking back, at what was Week 5, I have several takeaways that not only define the week, but also provide some fantasy football implications owners can take with them into week 6.

Patriots are awful (both sides)

Right now the Patriots are a mess and look terrible on both sides. The offense is in shambles, no production from any of the skill positions and the defense looks like a house of cards ready to fall at the first site of a strong wind. Avoid Patriots starters for now and start any team defense facing New England. If you have any running backs (ppr) matched up against the Patriots defense, they should be considered a safe play.

Broncos have worst defense, absolutely awful vs run

I don’t think I’ve seen any other team nearly as bad against the run this decade, as the Broncos have been this season. The Dolphins massacre may have been considered an outlier that slightly inflates the numbers, but after their performance in week 5 against the Jets, the numbers are true and you are what your record says; yards per carry allowed ranked last, rushing yards allowed per game ranked last, rushing yards allowed this season last, and rushing touchdowns allowed second to last.

George Pickens is a stud - just give Pickett time.

He was one of my pre-draft targets this season, although I was only able to get him in two of my six drafts. Pickens has great hands, crazy athletic ability and if the Steelers O-line can just give quarterback Kenny Pickett time, good things happen. Pickens is the fantasy WR19 at the moment, but trending in the right direction. Three of his last four games have been 75 yards receiving or more with two over 125 yards. Just give it time.

The Giants may have found Waller.

I just can’t figure out what the objective is when the Giants have the ball. All preseason the tales just continued to grow about Waller and Jones, but so far this season there’s been little evidence. That is until week five, where Waller was targeted a season high 11 times and recorded 8 grabs for 86 yards. I’d like to think the Giants have found possibly their best pass catcher, but this is a tough read for fantasy owners. Jones was knocked from the contest late and the Giants were trailing by multiple scores late. Regardless I’m just hoping the Giants watch the tape and realize they have Waller.

The Joe Cool and Chase show is back

It took five weeks, but well worth the wait. I admit, I jumped the gun and believed I had to look elsewhere and move off Joe for week 5. Now I never entertained the idea of dropping Joe, just wanted to wait until he plays better and looks healthy. He definitely looked great, threw the ball incredibly well and when Chase has his buddy Joe slinging it, great things happen. It’s safe to say, keep rolling with Joe Cool and JC.

Kupp and Nacua - the new Dynamic Duo

There was little doubt in my mind that a Sean McVay offense could support both Nacua and Kupp. I’d say my only hesitation was how much workload would Kupp be ready to handle. I’d say 12 targets would indicate nothing to worry about. And his teammate Nacua saw 11 of his own. Both receivers finished fantasy WR11 (Nacua) and WR12 (Kupp). They look like the new dynamic duo.

Justin Fields forever Moore.

There’s something happening in Chicago. The past two weeks have been a big indicator and I am believing that Fields has found his go to in Moore and fantasy owners can expect to see more of this going forward. Over his past two games Moore has caught 16 passes for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s also scored a touchdown in three straight games. Fields, now the fantasy QB4 has tossed 8 touchdowns with one pick in his last two starts and his 11 total touchdowns passes ranks tied for 2nd this season. Both are must-starts going forward.

The Niners are the best team right now

I don’t think I need to announce this to anyone who watches the NFL. But after their week 5 Sunday night dismantling of the Cowboys, it’s really hard to not recognize the Niners as the best and most complete team. As impressive as they are with weapons on offense like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, etc., they are equally impressive on the other side. IDP studs would include Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Dre Greenlaw. They may not run the table, 17 games is a long season, but they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs for whatever unlucky team has to face them.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

With two full weeks in the books, it’s time again to take a look at those rosters and check out the Waiver wire. With several significant injuries this past week and your championship hopes on the verge of being derailed, it might be time to work the wire and make the magic happen.

Week 3 Waiver wire options;

RB-Matt Breida (Giants) - With Saquon going down in week 2 and expected (although not ruled out yet) to miss Thursday night, running back Matt Breida looks to be the next man up. Breida is a career 4.8 yards per carry guy should fill the role fine in the short term. He may not be featured like Saquon, but he could be a low-end RB2/Flex option for the time being. Barkley isn’t expected to be out too long, so go get Breida if you have the need.

RB-Jerome Ford (Browns) - Following the very unfortunate season ending injury to Nick Chubb, Ford stepped in and did more than a commendable job. Ford carried the ball 16 times on Monday night for 106 yards and added 3 catches for another 25 yards. He also added a receiving touchdown finishing the week as RB6 (ppr). Odds are he won’t finish that high by season end, but he certainly looks like a guy he could be a borderline RB1/RB2.

RB-Jaylen Warren (Steelers) - This pickup, if Warren is available in your league, harbors on the fact that running back Najee Harris has just been ineffective the first two weeks of the season (74 rushing yards in two games). As Harris continues to lumber, Warren will continue to see his workload increase (10 touches on Monday night).

WR-DeVante Parker (Patriots) - Right now Parker is a fix for the flex spot in deeper leagues, but he should be owned. He has the talent to be a solid WR2 if he can stay healthy (11 games missed the past two seasons). Parker was targeted 8 times on Sunday night and pulled in six passes for 57 yards.

WR-Tutu Atwell (Rams) - With all the talk deservedly surrounding Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, quietly Atwell has made a case himself to be owned in fantasy leagues. After a week one stat line of 6 receptions for 119 yards, he followed that up with 7 catches for 77 yards this past Sunday. Atwell has been targeted 17 times over the first two weeks of the season. With that kind of volume he remains in the flex mix every week.

TE-Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - The fantasy tight end position can look like a wasteland at times, when you are checking weekly results. It becomes a tough spot to find production. But everyone knows before you have production, you must have that volume of opportunity. Over the past two weeks Ertz has been targeted 18 times. He’s also on the field plenty (72.4% snap share) for those opportunities. If you are streaming tight ends, it’s time to grab Ertz (11 receptions for 77 yards in 2023 - currently fantasy TE9.

A few more notables to consider and at the very least should be on your bench, if not already owned include, (WR) Josh Reynolds, (WR) Tank Dell, (WR) Jayden Reed, (RB) Zack Moss, (WR) Marvin Mims Jr, and (RB) Tony Jones Jr. These players could become steady contributors down the stretch. 

Others that could be in the cards down the road to provide some depth relief for the coming bye weeks and are worth watching now include (RB) Damien Harris, (RB) Roschon Johnson, and (WR) Chase Claypool.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 13th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

In fantasy football luck plays its part, but success is all about chances. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 1

Top 5 WR

1. Tyreek Hill (15)

2. Puka Nacua (15)

3. Stefon Diggs (13)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (13)

5. Justin Jefferson (12)

Stefon Diggs displayed why he’s an elite receiver in the NFL turning in another 100-yard receiving performance with 10 receptions and a score. He will finish as a Top-5 fantasy receiver in 2023 at this pace.

Top 5 TE

1. Zach Ertz (10)

2. TJ Hockenson (9)

3. Logan Thomas (8)

4. Hayden Hurst (7)

5. Cole Kmet (7)

The overall production was a bit light, but with the10 targets on Sunday tight end Zach Ertz could easily bounce back and very soon. The Cardinals air attack may continue to stall a bit here in the early season, but as long the volume is there Ertz could be fantasy relevant soon.

Top 5 RB

1. Roschon Johnson (7)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (7)

3. Bijan Robinson (6)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson (6)

5. James Cook (6)

Running back James Cook was lead back on Monday night and dominated the Bills backfield in snaps and touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and as long as this volume continues, he’s in line for some big games in the future.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 1

Top 5 RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (25)

2. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

3. Nick Chubb (22)

4. Cam Akers (22)

5. Miles Sanders (22)

Cam Akers was ineffective on Sunday against the Seahawks only totaling 29 yards on the ground, but you can't ignore his usage. Despite the tough treading, the Rams stayed with Akers. His 22 carries ranked tied for the most in week 1 and with that kind of work, fantasy owners can expect better outputs from Akers (so long as the workload continues).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 12th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

After one week of action, it’s time to make some changes and fix those rosters. If week one injuries impacted your championship run or have put you in an 0-1 hole, it might be time to hit the Waiver wire.

Week 2 Waiver wire options;

RB-Kenneth Gainwell (Eagles) - With Miles Sanders gone, it wasn’t D’Andre Swift, Rashad Penny (healthy scratch), or Boston Scott. It was Gainwell who dominated the action in the Eagles backfield. Gainwell earned a 62.1% snap count share and logged 18 touches to Swifts’ and Scotts’ 2 apiece. Gainwell appears to own the job at the moment and needs to be owned in all leagues.

WR-Darnell Mooney (Bears) - Despite the heavy competition at the position, Mooney was still heavily involved (83.8% snap count share). But clearly Mooney was the favorite on Sunday garnering 7 targets to DJ Moores’ (2) and Claypools’ 2. He needs to be owned.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - The Patriots tight end was on the field for 63 snaps (78.8% share) and very involved in the team's passing game. Henry was 4th on the team with 6 targets, turning in a stat line of 5 (rec)/56 (yds)/1 (Td). He finished as the No.1 fantasy tight end on Sunday. He should be a waiver wire target for week 2.

WR-Puka Nacua (Rams) - The Rams Rookie 5th round draft pick was huge on Sunday and played a big role in the passing attack. Nacua garnered a 77.8% snap count share and was targeted a team high 15 times leading to 10 receptions for 119 yards receiving to lead the Rams. A virtual unknown that will be a hot pickup off the waiver wire this week.

RB-Kyren Williams (Rams) - While Cam Akers (29 yards rushing) received more carries on Sunday, Williams (52 yards rushing) was the more effective runner of the two. The more glaring stat was the snap counts of both, Williams out paced Akers, 53-28. He’s definitely worth a grab and stash if you have the room on your bench.

A few more notables to consider, (WR) Tutu Atwell (RB) Joshua Kelley, (TE) Hayden Hurst, (RB) Justice Hill and (RB) Gus Edwards could be in the cards.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega