FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 2)

I am going to have good picks and I’m going to have some bad ones too. It’s just the nature of this game, so here are my week 2 picks where I whiffed.

I just didn’t love Pickens on Monday Night

George Pickens (WR) – Without a doubt, this was my biggest whiff. Don’t get me wrong, I love Pickens this season, I believe he’s the real number one in Pittsburgh. With another tough matchup against the Browns, following the disastrous start in week one, I was expecting much. To put his MNF performance into context, without the 71-yard TD catch, his line looked likes; 3/56/0 on 9 targets. Sometimes it just takes one.

I thought Mooney was money.

Darnell Mooney (WR) - I’m not really sure what happened here with Mooney. He did leave the game early in the second half with a knee injury, but in over 30 minutes of football he did not have a single target and he was only on the field for 15 snaps (seems low). 

I thought Trautman would score.

Adam Trautman (TE) - So much for the injury to the Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich, meant nothing towards Trautman’s workload in the passing game. With Dulcich out (placed on IR), Trautman recorded just one lone target. Bust.

I expected another strong game.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB) - The Jaguars running back was completely held in check on Sunday, just rushing for 40 yards on 12 carries. This was not the expected outcome in week 2 after finishing as the No.6 fantasy running back in week 1

With a home game I thought he would play well.

Trevor Lawrence (QB) -.Much like the whole Jaguars offense on Sunday, Lawrence pretty much laid an egg at home against the Chiefs. After a strong week one showing Lawrence only completed 53.8% of his passes with zero touchdowns in week 2. He was the No.27 fantasy quarterback.

I figured he’d fall flat facing a ferocious pass rush.

Russell Wilson (QB) - I didn’t expect to see this on Sunday, Wilson finishing as the No.3 fantasy quarterback. At times it wasn’t pretty and throughout it was rough. Wilson was sacked 7 times on the afternoon, but when he wasn’t on the ground he posted 308 yards passing with 3 touchdowns and added 56 rushing yards. It was a nice stat line, but greatly overshadowed by the stunning week two loss at home.

I thought it would be all Jeudy.

Courtland Sutton (WR) - His numbers on Sunday don’t jump off the paper, 5 grabs for 66 yards, but his double-digit fantasy points output (ppr) fared much better than expected.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

September 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for NFL Sunday

(Week 2)

With the Kickoff to NFL Sunday week 2 just a few hours away, I’m getting fresh batteries for my remotes, breaking out the second TV, switching on Youtube TV (with Sunday Ticket), checking my fantasy lineups, making some last minute adjustments, and tuning into the latest fantasy shows for injury updates.

There’s a lot to take in and the clock to kickoff is counting down. On top of the inventory check on cold beverages and football foods supply for the day, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I anxiously await for NFL Sunday to kick off;

1. “James gets cooking” - I like what I saw from the Bills running back on Monday night. Although he did not put up great numbers, his snap share and his usage indicated to me, he’s the guy. It’s only a matter of time before he gets cooking and week 2 versus the Raiders is as good a time as any.

2. “Joe Cool to Chase” - The Bengals passing offense was stagnant in week one, but you had a tough Browns defense and horrible weather. It looks like the weather won’t be a factor this week

3. Henry is still King” - At least for another Sunday, Titans running back will show why he is King. The Chargers are traveling back east for an early game, so this sets up as one of those games where they could fall flat. You know the Titans will lean hard on Henry, especially with a banged up D-Hop (DeAndre Hopkins).

4. “Big Sunday for Big Mike” - The Chargers wideout was quiet in week one and as per the norm, he’ll bounce back this week with a big performance. It’s a good matchup for Big Mike and three times last season when he was targeted fewer than 5 times, he averaged nearly 22 fantasy points.

5. “ASB & Lions keep prowling” - When was the last time the Lions started out 2-0? How about 2023? The Lions will be on the prowl today squaring off with the Seahawks. This matchup looks like a great opportunity for Goff to ASB (Amon-Ra St. Brown) to be called a couple of times. The Seahawks secondary was torched in week one.

6. “Texans not out of Woods” - It’s not surprising to see Robert Woods still hanging around in the NFL, but after the past two quiet seasons I hardly expected to hear his name called again. Now he didn’t light up the scoreboard last week, but he did turn in a solid 6 catch, 57 yards receiving performance. The glaring statistics were his 10 targets and 75.3% snap count. He may not have much fantasy relevance leading into the 2023 campaign, but those numbers might say otherwise.

7. “Mooney is money” - DJ Moore who? Did everyone forget about Mooney? Mooney was a 1,000 yard receiver for the Bears in 2021 and before going down to injury in 2022 he was a primary target for quarterback Justin Fields. Fields trust him and knows he’s money. Don’t count him out.

8. “Waller is winning” - The Giants tight end doesn’t carry an injury designation leading into Sunday. Fantasy owners can grab your popcorn and get ready to see what all the hype during training camp was all about.

9. “Sunday is Deebo Time” - It’s rivalry Sunday, Rams and Niners and that means Deebo time. The Niners wideout has scored in four of their last five meetings, including 5 total touchdowns. He was relatively quiet in week one, but against the Rams I expect a lot of noise from the playmaker.

10. “Jeudy will bring the Juice” - He may be on a pitch count, but no question when he’s on the field he’ll make it count. One element missing last Sunday from the Broncos offense was explosiveness. Jeudy has great speed and can be electric, on Sunday he will bring the juice.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 15th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Friday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week one picks didn’t fare too well. With Justin Herbert (QB5) and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB6), my backfield was secure, but beyond that it was lackluster. Both of my wideouts finished outside the top 20, Chris Godwin was WR40 and Mike Williams was WR50. And in an ugly week for the tight ends, Juwan Johnson finished as the TE18.

Looking ahead to Sunday, I am hoping to bounce back with some strong plays that deserve Week 2 consideration.

QB-Jared Goff ($6200) - I love this matchup for Goff and company. At home this week against a reeling Seahawks secondary that allowed 334 air yards in week 1 (ranked 30th vs pass). Goff’s showing in week one was a bit pedestrian (just one score), but he’ll have the luxury of home cooking this week and should take advantage. At his salary, I consider him a great play against the Seahawks.

RB-Travis Etienne Jr ($6900) - Again a great matchup this week for Etienne and at his salary I love this play. In week one the Jags running back finished as the No.6 fantasy running back and this week he could finish as a Top-10 once again. Etienne was in on 80% of the offensive snaps and totaled over 100 yards in week one, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Chiefs defense allowed better than four yards a tilt against the Lions in week one, so with his 18 carries and 5 targets in week one, I’m expecting Etienne to again find similar success. He’ll be a week 2 Stud to anchor my DFS lineups.

WR-Amon-Ra St.Brown ($7800) - I gotta tie St. Brown to Goff in this one. One of the biggest keys to the success of the Lions passing game and to Goff is Amon-Ra. In week one he was targeted 9 times (tied for 17th among WRs), a low-number considering he totaled 146 in 2022 (ranked 8th). I am expecting to see ASB heavily targeted in this one against a secondary that allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing wide receivers in week one. ASB will be another one of my Stud anchors in my DFS lineup for week 2.

WR-Darnell Mooney ($4400) - If there ever was a value play in week 2, this has to be it. Despite the low volume passing in the Bears offense (only 13 passes to WRS - 3rd fewest in week 1), Mooney still finished as WR20. Mooney dominated the WR target shares with a 53.8% share and 18.9% overall. He converted his opportunity to 4 catches for 53 yards and a score. This Sunday Mooney faces a Bucs defense that was torched for 242 air yards by the opposing WRs. A similar line in week 2 is gold in DFS.

TE-Adam Trautman ($3000) - The Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson was highly efficient in week one and will have one of his primary weapons in Jerry Jeudy back this week. The Commanders defense will be forced to deal with Jeudy’s explosiveness which could offer a lot of room for the underneath stuff. At his salary Trautman is worth the risk, especially considering the Commanders defense allowed the 2nd most receptions to the position in week one. 

These are my favorite plays for Week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 12th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

After one week of action, it’s time to make some changes and fix those rosters. If week one injuries impacted your championship run or have put you in an 0-1 hole, it might be time to hit the Waiver wire.

Week 2 Waiver wire options;

RB-Kenneth Gainwell (Eagles) - With Miles Sanders gone, it wasn’t D’Andre Swift, Rashad Penny (healthy scratch), or Boston Scott. It was Gainwell who dominated the action in the Eagles backfield. Gainwell earned a 62.1% snap count share and logged 18 touches to Swifts’ and Scotts’ 2 apiece. Gainwell appears to own the job at the moment and needs to be owned in all leagues.

WR-Darnell Mooney (Bears) - Despite the heavy competition at the position, Mooney was still heavily involved (83.8% snap count share). But clearly Mooney was the favorite on Sunday garnering 7 targets to DJ Moores’ (2) and Claypools’ 2. He needs to be owned.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - The Patriots tight end was on the field for 63 snaps (78.8% share) and very involved in the team's passing game. Henry was 4th on the team with 6 targets, turning in a stat line of 5 (rec)/56 (yds)/1 (Td). He finished as the No.1 fantasy tight end on Sunday. He should be a waiver wire target for week 2.

WR-Puka Nacua (Rams) - The Rams Rookie 5th round draft pick was huge on Sunday and played a big role in the passing attack. Nacua garnered a 77.8% snap count share and was targeted a team high 15 times leading to 10 receptions for 119 yards receiving to lead the Rams. A virtual unknown that will be a hot pickup off the waiver wire this week.

RB-Kyren Williams (Rams) - While Cam Akers (29 yards rushing) received more carries on Sunday, Williams (52 yards rushing) was the more effective runner of the two. The more glaring stat was the snap counts of both, Williams out paced Akers, 53-28. He’s definitely worth a grab and stash if you have the room on your bench.

A few more notables to consider, (WR) Tutu Atwell (RB) Joshua Kelley, (TE) Hayden Hurst, (RB) Justice Hill and (RB) Gus Edwards could be in the cards.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 1)

I was down on Darnell

Darnell Mooney (WR) - The Bears receiver is still Justin Fields' go-to guy. In a low-volume passing game, Fields only attempted 13 passes to his receivers and Mooney was the recipient (7) times. I missed on this one, Mooney should be owned.

I didn't like Jimmy G.

Jimmy Garappolo (QB) - He’s still Mr.GQ Smooth and on Sunday Jimmy G showed he’s a winner. Garappolo passed for 200 yards and tossed two scores to finish as the No.14 fantasy QB on Sunday. He's a fringe QB1 in deeper leagues with some upside potential.

I was expecting a lot from him in the passing game

Antonio Gibson (RB) - The Commanders running back was a complete dud on Sunday. Gibson contributed just four touches for 19 total yards and a turnover. He played in just 25 snaps (35.2%) on Sunday.

I was not on the hype train.

Bijan Robinson (RB) - I was not on the hype-train during the preseason. I didn’t doubt this kid’s talent or ability, just wasn’t hyping him up and getting excited. I know it’s only one game, but he was impressive enough for me to say I was wrong about him - he’s pretty good.

I liked Johnson's matchup in week 1.

Juwan Johnson (TE) - The Saints tight end was a non-factor on Sunday, getting targeted just five times. Johnson finished the day with three catches for 36 yards. He’s best on fantasy owners benches for now.

These were a few of my week one misses. Hopefully I can improve my numbers as we forward into the season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 1

Sit’ems

1. Jimmy G, QB (LVR) - This will be a tough road matchup for Jimmy G. And although I am not down on him this season, afterall he has Davante to throw to, I just feel better about other options. I’d prefer to sit Jimmy G here and see how he plays first, and roll in another direction

2. Gabe Davis, WR (BUF) - I will admit, I watched “Hard Knocks” this season and I am a fan of the Jets D. I really believe they will be tough. I’m not so sure about the 85-86 Bears, but they will be a problem for opponents and likely Gabe Davis in Week 1. I see the Bills still taking shots at Sauce Gardner with Diggs, but I also see quarterback Josh Allen spreading the ball all around. Also Davis caught 5 passes for 64 yards in two games against the Jets in 2022.

3. Matthew Stafford, QB (LAR) - With no Cooper Kupp and even questions in my mind about how healthy and strong Stafford is, since returning from a shortened 2022 season due to injury, he’s a wait and see start for me. I like the matchups for quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Jordan Love, and even Baker Mayfield ahead of Stafford who will be on the road.

4. Darnell Mooney, WR (CHI) - The Bears passing game is a low-volume proposition and with the arrival of DJ Moore in the offseason and the addition of Chase Claypool last season, leaves Mooney’s outlook a little murky heading into week 1. I’d rather see how these receivers are used and how much volume Mooney demands before I roll him out. Receivers like Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, and the rookie Jordan Addison have more appeal.

5. Zach Ertz, TE (ARI) - No quarterback Kyler Murray in this one and a banged-up Ertz, does not instill a lot of confidence. There are safer streaming options that I would feel more comfortable with on Sunday, like Juwan Johnson (Saints), Logan Thomas (Commanders), or even Greg Dulcich (Broncos).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th, 2023

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Stocks: Falling Stocks

From the desk of The (fantasy) Football Street Journal, there are a number of players in this year’s Fantasy player pool with cloudy outlooks. Avoid these stocks.

Stock Falling

Jonathan Taylor, ADP 3.02 - On the team’s PUP for the first four games of the season, the Colts running back is trending down. Still going in the 3rd round in most drafts, unless Taylor falls deep into the mid-rounds, he is one to avoid. Too much risk with this investment.

Jameson Williams, ADP 11.01 - The Lions 2nd year receiver is suspended for the first six games and will be away from the team as he still rehabs. His outlook is very unsettling at this time. Expected to miss at the very least six and there’s no real indication of what kind of impact he’ll make when he returns. With his stock falling, even as a late round flier he carries some risk.

Kyler Murray, ADP 14.03 - The Cardinals quarterback is going to be sidelined to start the 2023 NFL season as the team has placed him on the PUP. He will miss the team’s first four games, but beyond that it is unclear. Currently there is so much speculation going around about how long Murray could be out, in fantasy football his stock is plummeting. At his current ADP that’s about the only place to consider him. He’s a wait and see proposition until he’s at least back on the practice field.

Darnell Mooney, ADP 11.07 - With the addition of wide receiver Chase Claypool last season and the arrival of former Panthers receiver DJ Moore, Mooney’s fantasy outlook is muddled at best. More of a run-first team, the Bears had the fewest pass attempts and completions of any offense in 2022. With Moore and Claypool in the huddle now, Mooney is going to have stiff competition for targets this season.With the talk of trade rumors floating around, his stock continues to slide.

Dawson Knox, ADP 13.11 - The Bills went out and drafted themselves another tight end with their 1st round pick in the recent NFL draft, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid). Since the start of camp there’s been a buzz and talk about the rookie tight end, who’s currently being drafted ahead of Knox. The Bills list Knox ahead of Kincaid on the depth chart, but as the start of the season gets closer, the sleeper talk around Kincaid grows and the appeal of Knox falls.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega