FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

October 18th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

The formula for success never changes. Fantasy gold for managers starts with chances and opportunities and in week six there were plenty players who found opportunity and cashed in. Players like the Bills receiver Stefon Diggs (66 targets this season) continued his high rate of usage, while in Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce (46 targets this season) proves even in his 11th season he’s still among the best at his position, and out of the backfield it’s the new kid on the block, Falcons rookie running back Bijan Robinson (32 targets this season) who is showing off his hands skills.

There are a lot of familiar faces on the lists this week and a couple of new ones. Take note because success starts here.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 6

Top 10 WR

1. Stefon Diggs - 16

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 15

3. Michael Pittman Jr - 14

4. Adam Thielen - 13

5. Ja'Marr Chase - 13

6. Drake London - 12

7. Garrett Wilson - 12

8. Keenan Allen - 11

9. Kendrick Bourne - 11

10. Terry McLaurin – 11

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is currently one of the highest targeted pass catchers in the league this season, especially over the last three weeks. Since Week 4, Chase is commanding a 36.9% target share and has turned his 41 targets into 28 receptions, 345 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. Currently on a bye this week, Chase will get a chance to continue his hot hand with the Bengals face the 49ers in Week 8.

Top 10 TE

1. Sam Laporta - 11

2. Travis Kelce - 9

3. TJ Hockenson - 8

4. Dallas Goedert - 8

5. Dalton Schultz - 7

6. Darren Waller - 7

7. Evan Engram - 7

8. Kyle Pitts - 6

9. Michael Mayer - 6

10. Mark Andrews - 6

Over the past three weeks only Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been targeted more than the Jaguars Evan Engram. The Jags pass receiving tight end has been targeted 23 times and recorded 18 receptions for 128 yards. While the production is a bit on the low side, his scoring has him as the fantasy TE9-tied over the past three weeks and still No.6 for the season. Even with a tough matchup this Thursday, Engram needs to be in lineups.

Top 10 RB

1. D'Andre Swift - 10

2. Alvin Kamara - 8

3. Bijan Robinson - 8

4. Zack Moss - 7

5. Tony Pollard - 7

6. Alexander Mattison - 7

7. Rhamondre Stevenson - 6

8. Isiah Pacheco - 6

9. Jonathan Taylor - 6

10. Austin Ekeler – 6

The Eagles running back D’Andre Swift has been a busy part of the passing game out of the backfield. Swift has been targeted (21 targets) the 3rd most of all running backs over the past three weeks collecting 18 passes for 101 receiving yards and a score. His pass receiving skills has him cracking the Top-15 (14th) fantasy scoring per game among running backs over the last three weeks. And while his rushing numbers have cooled, it’s his ppr scoring that has been carrying him recently. He’ll have a shot at improving both in a classic Sunday night showdown with the Dolphins this week.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 6

Top 10 RB

1. Saquon Barkley - 28

2. Josh Jacobs - 27

3. Alvin Kamara - 26

4. Kenneth Walker - 22

5. Isiah Pacheco - 22

6. Alexander Mattison - 22

7. Travis Etienne Jr - 21

8. Tony Pollard - 21

9. Chuba Hubbard - 20

10. Raheem Mostert – 20

With 28 touches on Sunday night against the Bills, could Saquon Barkley be back? After missing several games due to an ankle injury, Barkley made his return. After a slow start in the first half, he looked pretty good on a couple of late runs. If the Giants can continue to feed him, he could be in for a big Sunday against the Commanders.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING SHOTS

October 8th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Shots 

Week 5: Four Horsemen

With NFL Sunday Week 5 here in the states and set to kickoff in a few hours. I thought I would go ahead and throw out a couple of bold predictions or as I say “Call my shots” for Week 5. These are some fantasy plays and matchups that I am predicting a positive range of outcomes. Play at your own risk, but in these riders I trust for week 5.

These are my Week 5 Four Horsemen.

Anthony Richardson (Colts) - The Colts rookie quarterback has shown through the first four weeks, his fantasy floor is high. I am not calling for a big game today, but rather Richardson will do what he does and should put up solid fantasy numbers. He’s been dynamic this season and a fantasy champion winner as the fantasy QB2 (fantasy points per game) thus far. He’s been doing significant damage on the ground with 131 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns and I would suspect more of the same today; 50 plus rushing, a passing score and rushing.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - The rookie runner has dazzled through four weeks, sitting in the fantasy RB10 slot. Robinson is likely to see his usage continue to be dialed up and trending in the direction fantasy owners like to see. His week 5 matchup looks promising as he meets a Texans defense that over the past two weeks has allowed the 8th most points to opposing running backs, including the 6th most total yards (204 rushing, 114 receiving). A dual threat out of the backfield, Robinson should be a busy man contributing to the ground and air attacks on Sunday. He’s a strong bet to total over 100 yards of offense and find the end zone.

Chris Olave (Saints) -The Saints receiver only goes as far as the health of his quarterback. If Derek Carr is healthy on Sunday, after watching the Patriots secondary get torched by the Cowboys in week 4, Olave and company could follow suit. Olave caught just one pass on six targets last week against the Buccaneers, a rebound game is in order here. The Saints wideout should see plenty of work, in the neighborhood of 6-8 targets with a couple of shots in the red zone.

Tyler Higbee (Rams) - With all of the attention and focus on the Rams new dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Higbee could be more than just a sneaky play. Higbee has been seeing regular work the past couple of weeks and with the Eagles secondary having their hands full with the caped crusaders, Higbee should benefit greatly against the 29th ranked defense (fantasy points allowed) versus opposing tight ends. Higbee could be in line for a 5-7 catch afternoon and a score.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 15th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Morning Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 2)

(Favorable Matchups)

After one week of data it doesn’t get any easier for fantasy owners to decide who to start and who to sit, but the information does help. So let’s take a look at the week 2 matchups and set our lineups for Sunday.

QB-Jared Goff (Lions) - Coming off a week 1 win over the defending champion Chiefs, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will be playing with a lot of confidence in this week 2 matchup. Goff and company will square off against a Seahawks defense that allowed 334 yards passing (3rd most) in week one. This could be a big afternoon for Goff.

RB-Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - Considering his usage in the passing game in week one, this Sunday against the Packers could be a big afternoon for the Rookie. Robinson was targeted six times in week one and will face a Packers defense that allowed 11 receptions (2nd most) last week. The Falcons rookie should have another productive Sunday.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Just playing the numbers with this call. Last week Hopkins was heavily targeted and no reason it should not continue. This Sunday the Titans will face a Chargers secondary that surrendered the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Hopkins to turn in another busy Sunday.

WR-Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) - After a quiet week one, this sets up to be a great bounce back game for Chase and the Bengals offense. In two games versus the Ravens last season Chase was targeted 25 times, so the elite wideout can be expected to be heavily involved in the passing game this week.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - The Jags tight end was a bit quiet in week one, but still finished as the No.5 fantasy tight end with 5 catches for 49 yards. This week Engram will take his shot at the Chiefs defense that surrendered 7 catches (tied for 3rd most) last week to the opposing tight end. Last postseason, the Chiefs were able to limit Engram to 31 yards receiving, but that was the pre-Ridley era. Results this Sunday should be very different.

These are not necessarily considered week 2 start’ems, as some are of course already locked in your lineups as they should be. These are rather my predictions or feelings about their respective week 2 matchups and outcomes this weekend. 

These are my week 2 favorites with some great matchups.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 1)

I was down on Darnell

Darnell Mooney (WR) - The Bears receiver is still Justin Fields' go-to guy. In a low-volume passing game, Fields only attempted 13 passes to his receivers and Mooney was the recipient (7) times. I missed on this one, Mooney should be owned.

I didn't like Jimmy G.

Jimmy Garappolo (QB) - He’s still Mr.GQ Smooth and on Sunday Jimmy G showed he’s a winner. Garappolo passed for 200 yards and tossed two scores to finish as the No.14 fantasy QB on Sunday. He's a fringe QB1 in deeper leagues with some upside potential.

I was expecting a lot from him in the passing game

Antonio Gibson (RB) - The Commanders running back was a complete dud on Sunday. Gibson contributed just four touches for 19 total yards and a turnover. He played in just 25 snaps (35.2%) on Sunday.

I was not on the hype train.

Bijan Robinson (RB) - I was not on the hype-train during the preseason. I didn’t doubt this kid’s talent or ability, just wasn’t hyping him up and getting excited. I know it’s only one game, but he was impressive enough for me to say I was wrong about him - he’s pretty good.

I liked Johnson's matchup in week 1.

Juwan Johnson (TE) - The Saints tight end was a non-factor on Sunday, getting targeted just five times. Johnson finished the day with three catches for 36 yards. He’s best on fantasy owners benches for now.

These were a few of my week one misses. Hopefully I can improve my numbers as we forward into the season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega