FSH: WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

April 15th, 2009 10:15pm PST

WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

So who will be the real winner in the "Cutler-Orton Deal?"....

While there has been plenty written about the trading of Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton, one thing I have noticed is there isn't a lot of optimism being shared. Sure, on the surface this deal does not look much like a win-win situation for the Broncos. All everyone sees is that Denver has traded away its’ 2006 first round pick (number 11 overall) and pro bowl quarterback. It makes sense to ask "what are they thinking?"

I would like to say that I do live in reality and tend to keep my feet on the ground, so when I offer this perspective, please take with a grain of salt (or maybe slightly bigger than a pebble). When I look at this trade, it doesn't appear at first glance that the Broncos made an even swap, but then I have to really look and ask "who is the real winner?"

(Photo by Bill Sikes/AP Photo)

With Josh McDaniels bringing in a system that has surely proven to be quarterback friendly and very much capable of making a journey-man look like a stud (just ask the Chiefs, they bought into it), should Denver fans really be counting Orton out? While McDaniels was the offensive coordinator in New England, Patriots quarterbacks threw 95 touchdown passes and eclipsed 12,000-yards passing in three seasons. Okay, he had lots of help with Brady and Moss, but one can hardly argue the performance of Matt Cassel last season.

It's hard to argue that the Bears made good in this deal with the acquisition of Cutler. His 4,500-yards passing and 25 touchdowns say enough about his talent, but one concern fans will have in the windy city; who will he throw to?

The Broncos on the other hand, just what did they pick up? While in Chicago, Orton was not much of a playmaker throwing only 30 touchdowns and passing for just 5,300-yards in the four years he played for the Bears, but he was a successful leader compiling a record of 21-12. So what makes Orton so special or the quarterback that McDaniels "wanted."

And how did the Broncos win in this deal? When you take a closer look at what they really got, it's a little clearer to see that they got more than meets the eye. Sure it's argumentative, but Orton was a quarterback in a run-first system that did not have any playmakers (Hester is still a work in progress) in the passing game. When you examine what he had to work with, where he had to work, and what he was asked to do, he never had a chance to produce big numbers.

So why should anyone expect things to be different in Denver? In the Mile-High country, Kyle will have the tools to make plays and run a system that will not be reliant on him to make all of the plays. With weapons like Marshall, Royal, Stokley and Hillis, Bronco's quarterback Kyle Orton should easily rise among the ranks of fantasy quarterbacks in 2009. Remember, Orton is a by-product from the University of Purdue (same place that produced quarterback Drew Brees), where he threw 31 touchdowns during his senior campaign.

(Photo by University of Purdue Sports Information)

As a senior at Purdue in 2004, the former Boilermaker opened up the season with three 300-yard passing games in his first four starts and threw no less than four touchdowns in each of those contests (17 total in the first four games). Injuries mid-season slowed down his Heisman-like season, but Orton finished strong with 522-passing yards (tying a record set by Drew Brees) and six touchdowns in the teams regular season finale..

Yes that was then and this is now, but if anyone ever doubted Orton's ability to play quarterback you only need to look closer at his resume. He can chuck the rock. In Chicago he was not asked to throw the ball, evident by his 465 passing attempts in 2008 (Cutler threw 616 passes). Under the Bronco's new head coach, quarterbacks averaged 549 passes over the past three seasons.

We are only in April, but considering the additional draft picks the Bronco's picked up in the deal for Orton, it may be too early to concede which team actually got the better in this deal. The Bears are going to bank on Cutler's big arm, but they had better find him some targets soon. The the Bronco faithful should have a little more faith in the new system that has been brought over from Foxboro and the talent that was already in place.

I won't make any bold predictions here, but if you're a Bronco fan you have to like the prospects of what could be in 2009, just don't look too closely at their schedule.


Keep checking back for more football....

By David G. Ortega

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

April 14th, 2009 11:30pm PST


David's Daily Digest
[My Take]

The countdown has already started and we are only 10 days away from "D" day. There's going to be plenty of rumors to note, news to follow, and plenty of fantasy to talk about as draft day gets closer. This week has been plenty active with no shortage of information to share. Here's "My take" on some of the recent happenings around the league....

My Take...

TE TONY GONZALEZ RUMORED TO BE LEAVING KC?
Surprisingly there are rumors floating around indicating that the 33-year old All-pro tight end could be traded. It sounds a little far-fetched considering the recent moves the team has made and the direction they seem to be headed. Gonzalez was the league’s best receiving tight end in 2008 and should be once again among the top options whether in KC or anywhere else.

WR MILES AUSTIN TO STAY PUT IN DALLAS
There was talk that the Jets had interest, but it sounds like the Cowboys made it clear that Miles fits into the team’s future plans. Miles has great speed and show big play ability last season, but disappeared down the stretch in 2008. Consistency will be the focus for the Cowboys 4th year receiver. With Williams and Crayton currently projected as the teams starters it will be an uphill battle for Miles to emerge as a reliable fantasy option, but he is expected to have a chance to compete for the number two spot.

QB ALEX SMITH DOES NOT LOOK SHARP IN OFFSEASON
The Niners may need to look to the draft for their future if Alex Smith is any indication of what the bay area has to look forward to. It may be a wee-bit too early to pass judgement just yet, but Smith has been with the team for four years now. If he doesn't start showing the team something soon, it's not likely they're ever going to see anything worth watching. Fantasy owners can consider him an unworthy fantasy option.

RB DESHAUN FOSTER STILL LOOKING FOR A HOME
The free agent running back is still looking for a place to play in 2009 and recent word has indicated the Bills could offer a temporary home. With Marshawn Lynch serving a three-game suspension to start 2009, the team is going to be pressed for help in the backfield.

WR TORRY HOLT STILL NOT SIGNED
With things seemng to be moving slowly in the Holt-camp, it doesn't seem likely that the former Ram will sign with anyone prior to the draft. With certain teams having very specific needs at the wideout position, depending on how they all fare in the draft will determine which teams may come calling after the draft. Teams like Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland (if they trade Edwards), and Cincinnati will be front runners to target some of the big name wideouts in the draft, but look for Chicago and Tennessee to consider a receiver later in the draft. Holt has lost his elite status in fantasy, but it's too early to know whether he can be a reliable option in 2009.

TE DUSTIN KELLER LOOKING TO STAY ON THE FIELD
The Jets tight end has plans to bulk up this offseason, so he can be an everydown player. This would be a big benefit to not only the Jets, but fantasy owners alike. Keller had a pretty good rookie campaign in 2008 with 48 receptions, including three for touchdowns. Keller is already expected to be a little better in 2009, but the more he plays, the more productive he'll be (and his numbers could prove it). Even if he's on the field more, he's still a low-end tight end option for now (he's only in his second year folks).

RB FELIX JONES APPEARS HEALTHY AGAIN
According to the sources close to the team, running back Felix Jones is running with his trademark explosiveness. Last November Jones had surgery to repair his turf toe and it now sounds like he's completely healthy and ready to resume a big role in 2009. Jones showed flashes of brilliance in 2008 and figures to be a very productive fantasy option, even sharing the stage with Marion Barber.

OT ORLANDO PACE LOCKED FOR THE NEXT TWO SEASONS
The Bears added a new quarterback (Jay Cutler) and have now locked up some protection for him, at least for the next two seasons. Pace is still a very good NFL offensive tackle, but at 33 his age and health will be the team's main concern. If he can stay injury free, the Bear's quarterback should have penty of time to make plays in the windy city.

OT JASON PETERS A DRAFT DAY TRADE CANDIDATE?
It sounds like the Bills and Peters are nowhere near getting a new deal signed. Peters is one of the leagues premiere talent at the offensive tackle position, with the Bills unable to agree to terms, it's likely he could be traded on draft day to one of those teams targeting an O-lineman. Expect the Bills to be one of those teams that shake things up come April 25th.


IDP Notes:

The clock keeps ticking and draft day keeps approaching. There's going to be plenty of movements as the days get shorter and closer to the April 25th draft. Here's some more activity to mull over as I offer "my take" and we football fans patiently wait for "D" day......

LB DERRICK JOHNSON TO MOVE INSIDE
The Chiefs are expected to move Johnson inside to play alongside of Zach Thomas. He'll be a key playmaker on defense and should be a solid IDP play in 2009. Over the past four seasons the Chief's linebacker has averaged 87 tackles per season and under Clancy Pendergast's new 3-4 defense he'll still be very productive.

CB LEON HALL AT RISK FOR SUSPENSION
The Bengal's best corner has managed to find some offseason trouble and could see the first half of his 2009 season at risk. There's been no word yet, but it almost certain given the circumstances (arrested for DUI). Hall has eight interceptions and has averaged 71 tackles in his first two seasons. He could be a risky pick in any fantasy drafts, but once he returns (if suspended), he'll be worth adding.

DB DONTE WHITNER THE LATEST NFL CASUALTY
It seems the NFL can't go more than a couple of days without someone making the news and not necessarily good. The Bills safety Donte Whitner was arrested for disorderly conduct and resisting arrest. There have been some mixed messages coming from some of the reports, but it sounds like Whitner could be facing some sort of disciplinary action from the league when all is said and done. Whitner has been a very good fantasy option for IDP owners, but his stock will drop some if he misses time for suspension.

DL JASON TAYLOR LIKELY TO SIGN AFTER DRAFT
The former Redskin will likely stay a free agent until after the draft. He likely decided on a suitor based on how the Patriots and Dolphins draft. If he's offered only the league minimum in New England, expect to see Taylor return to Miami. Taylor is still athletic and a talent on the edge, but at 34 his tank is no longer full. If he signs with another team, fantasy owners could see his role limited as a pass rusher and see his value drop some.


Check back with "Your Fantasy Sports Home" for more Football 411.....

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 9th, 2009 10:07pm PST

16 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: San Francisco 49ers....
The Niners made big noise last season with the firing of former head coach Mike Nolan and seemed to have ushered in a new era and regime under new head coach Mike Singletary. The hall-of-fame Bear's linebacker has brought with him a new attitude, one that is based on hard work, dedication and commitment to the prize, and a new focus intended to change the environment.

Two things the Niners will need in 2009 to compete; one a running game (answer Frank Gore) and two, a defense. Many folks are expecting the Niners to give Southern Cal quarterback Mark Sanchez a look at quarterback, but even Singletary knows you can win with a Jim McMahon. Right now it looks like the team is stock with several McMahon clones (Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, and Alex Smith), although none may have the charisma of Jim.

I would be very surprised to see Singletary make a jump at Sanchez, Josh Freeman (Kansas State), or Pat White (West Virginia). If Maybin or Brian Orakpo (University of Texas) should fall into the Niners lap at ten, this is where I see the team going. Already fitted with one playmaker on defense (Patrick Willis), Singletary is closer to building a solid defensive unit than anything else on his team.

(Photo by Getty Images)

Orakpo lacks the great size to play the traditional end position, but could easily make the transition to a pass-rushing outside backer at the next level. In his senior season at Texas Orakpo led the team with 11.5 sacks and recorded 19 tackles for a loss. With the Niners playing a 3-4, the former Longhorn is ideally suited to step in and likely start on one of the edges.

If Singletary is looking to build a defense and create a winning attitude, he could not go wrong with either Orakpo or Aaron Maybin, should either one be there at number ten come draft day.


Check back every day for more "On the Ticker!"

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 8th, 2009 11:27pm PST

17 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: Green Bay Packers....
The Packers will have some big decisions to make on draft day, but there's little doubt that there focus with the number nine pick will be on the defense come April 25th. Checking all around the football globe or internet, it appears the popular choice for the Pack would be Penn State outside linebacker/defensive end, Aaron Maybin.

(Photo by Newscom)

With the Packers changing their defensive scheme to a 3-4 this coming season under Dom Capers (remember the Steelers with Kevin Greene and Greg Lloyd). Capers is going to bring back the Steeler's-like 3-4 Blitzburgh scheme to Lambeau, and a player like Maybin could fit the bill nicely as a playmaker on the edge.

Maybin has enough size to play on the edge and great speed to give opposing offenses plenty of fits. At Penn State Maybin led the Big Ten with 12 sacks and registered 20 tackles for loss as a sophomore. The outstanding soph looks ready for the next step and Green Bay appears to be a great landing spot for the kid to take his next big step.

The Packers have plenty of other needs, but with a new defense being brought in finding playmakers to fill the roles will be priority number one. Other candidates that could get consideration at number nine (if they are still available), are Texas' Brian Orakpo, Florida State's Everette Brown, and Ohio State's Malcolm Jenkins.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy has brought in a new defensive coordinator (Capers), so it would seem only fitting to give him the tools he'll need to revamp the Packers defense.


Check back every day for more "On the Ticker!"

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 7th, 2009 11:07pm PST

18 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: Jacksonville Jaguars....
The Jaguars will have an interesting decision to make come draft day. With Matt Jones, Joey Porter, and Reggie Williams gone, the team now has a screaming need at the wideout position. Currently on the roster and projected starters are Mike Walker and Dennis Northcutt; not your ordinary household names.

With the number eight pick the Jags will undoubtedly be looking at this years crop of receiving talent. Michael Crabtree will be high on their board, although it's not likely he would fall this far. Names like Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, and Darrius Heyward-Bey could very easily be sitting at number eight when the Jags reach the big board. Garrard has not had much talent to throw to since he won the job and it's pretty certain the team will be looking at this year's draft to bring in some talent.

If the Jags don't find a preferable wide receiver pick available when the clock starts, they could turn their attention to another pressing need along the offensive line. Even if Garrard doesn't have premium targets to throw to, he'll still need time in the pocket to make plays. Offensive tackle Andre Smith from the University of Alabama could end up being a serious consideration for Jacksonville come draft day.

(Photo by Marvin Gentry/US Presswire)

Before the combine, Smith was considered a possible top five pick and maybe the best tackle available in this year's draft. Don't be surprised if Del Rio and company decide he's a project worth investing in for the long term. Smith is huge at 6'5" and 340-lbs, and although he's a risk with a questionable work ethic, it's one that could pay huge dividends for Jacksonville in the future.

Check back every day for more "On the Ticker!"

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

April 13th, 2009 10:30pm PST


David's Daily Digest
[My Take]

This is just some recent guff I checked out over the weekend. Not too many newsmakers, but just enough to keep us fantasy diehards fed for a few days. The draft continues to inch closer and more rumors continue to fly. I'll be sure to keep my eye on things as they develop and offer my thoughts, but for now here's my take on some recent news.....

My Take...

QB BYRON LEFTWICH SIGNED BY BUCCANEERS
The Buc's have a full-house with four quarterbacks on the roster. Leftwich's signing would indicate that he's in and word is that Griese could be gone. Leftwich has the tools to be a player and if he can learn the system quickly it would not surprise to see him as the team's starter. Even though there's been a change at command, I would not expect this team to lose much of its’ identity on defense, but they would seem better suited as more of a power running team with Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward. If Leftwich does win the job, he'll have minimal value as a starting fantasy quarterback in 2009. He's an option worth leaving for much, much later.

RB THOMAS JONES A NO-SHOW THIS OFFSEASON
This really shouldn't have much significance in fantasy drafts, initially. The Jets starting running back had a solid 2008 with 1,300-yards and 15 touchdowns, but at 31, Jones is definitely on the back nine of his career. His hold-out from voluntary workouts won't win him any favor with new head coach Rex Ryan, who could opt to draft a running back and utilize much more the Jets playmaking scat back Leon Washington. As long as nothing crazy happens over the summer, Jones figures to be involved in the offense, but his numbers will likely drop some in 2009 making him nothing more than mid-level (low RB2) fantasy option at running back.

QB JEFF GARCIA SIGNED BY RAIDERS
The Raiders once again are looking to retread a player’s career. With all the problems the team had on offense last season, adding Garcia does nothing to better their chances. Garcia, slowed by injuries and likely age just doesn't have the tools to be a top flight performer at his position. JaMarcus Russell has more upside with his strong arm and size, but his inconsistency and lack of experience could open the door for Garcia to see some playing time in 2009. Fantasy owners might want to give this a look later during the regular season. Garcia may have enough to get owners through the byes, but can't see much more than that.

WR ROY WILLIAMS PREPPING FOR BIG 2009 SEASON
The Cowboys have put all their eggs in a few (passing) baskets in 2009 and Williams will be one. With T.O. out in Dallas, Williams inherits the number one receiver spot to be shared with tight end Jason Witten. While Witten will likely be Romo's safety value and red-zone insurance, the team will undoubtedly be looking for Williams to be their go-to for big catches especially in the corners of the end-zone. 2009 could be a make a break season for Big-Roy. If he lives up to expectations, he could be huge among the leaders in touchdowns and catches this season, but if he fall shorts he could be an expensive fantasy pciks for those that gamble on him early (in their fantasy draft). This jury is still officially out on the Rise of Williams. Let's see how he looks in camp this summer.

QB BRIAN GRIESE COULD BE OUT IN TAMPA
With the signing of Leftwich, someone will eventually have to go. It sounds like Tampa is high on Luke McCown and Leftwich, leaving Griese and Johnson as likely the odd-man out. With Griese demanding a $2.1 million price tag for 2009, Johnson becomes a very easy economical choice. If Griese is cut, he'll likely have to take a pay cut if he wants to play in 2009, and it's more likely wherever he lands, he'll be a back-up. At the moment Griese does not command any fantasy consideration for 2009.

RB JULIUS JONES LOOKING PAST "LAST YEAR"
Last year was then and this is now. With Mike Holmgren gone, Jones will have another shot playing for the Seahawks in 2009. With Mora implementing more of a one-cut style running game, Jones is expecting to be more productive as he thinks this suits his skills. Jones has shown in the past that he can handle the load and he'll head into camp as the team's leading back. If he remains healthy, he could be solid mid-level (mid RB2) fantasy option, especially under Mora. While Mora was head coach in Atlanta, running back Warrick Dunn averaged 1,200-yards/year.



IDP Notes:

There's never a shortage of information when it comes to fantasy, especially on the "Dark side." For those of us that love the game so much and enjoy the custom leagues that incorporate IDPs, here is a little more banter on what's been happening....


LB JAMES HARRISON SIGN BIG DEAL
This is huge for the Steelers and for fantasy owners. Now that this whole contract negotiations stuff is in the past, the leagues defending Defensive Player of the Year can get back to and foucs on what he does best; eat quarterbacks. Harrison is a premiere NFL linebacker and pass-rush specialist. He'll once again be terrorizing offenses and making a huge impact in IDP leagues in 2009. Expect Harrison to be a top-five fantasy pick on defense.

DL KEVIN WILLIAMS HOPEFUL TO WIN CASE
The Vikings are just as hopeful as Williams. The defensive lineman is one of the team’s main anchors on the interior defensive line. His absence would be greatly felt and very tough to fill. While he's an impact run-stopper for the Vikes, Williams is also a very good interior pass rusher (eight sacks in 2008) and very productive IDP option. If he wins his case, he'll go early in fantasy drafts, but a suspension could see a slight drop in his value (although he could still be worth an early selection).

DL JARED ALLEN WILL PARTAKE IN SOME VOULUNTARY WORKOUTS
Allen is considered one of the hardest working players in the NFL, although he typically does not participate in the voluntary offseason programs. Allen has a personal regiment and he has noted that he's in great shape. This is great news of fantasy owners. Allen played through an assortment of injuires in 2008, but still managed 14.5 sacks and 54 tackles. A healthy Allen could mean bigger numbers in 2009 and likely a top five pick in fantasy IDP drafts.

DL TY WARREN EXPECTS TO BE READY
The Patriots defensive lineman was slowed down with multiple injuries in 2008 that limited him to only two sacks. Not typically known as a pass rusher, Warren does his best work against the run. In 2006 he registered 84 tackles to go along with seven sacks. Warren expects to be ready by July and at 28 years of age he can still be quite productive. If he returns on time for camp and is completely recovered, the Pat's defensive end could sneak by some and be a great late round value pick in fantasy drafts.

LB ZACH THOMAS SIGNS WITH CHIEFS
The Chiefs are converting to a 3-4 defensive scheme and the signing of Thomas will fill one of the team's needs on the inside at linebacker. While Zack is a very intelligent and capable defensive player, this will be his third team in as many years and he's not the same player his was back in Miami. Thomas should do fine in the 3-4 and could come close to his 94 tackles in 2008, but fantasy owners should be careful to not over-value the name. Remember at 36 (when the season starts) this will be his 14th season of duty.


Check back with "Your Fantasy Sports Home" for more Football 411….