Tuesday, April 14, 2009

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

April 13th, 2009 10:30pm PST


David's Daily Digest
[My Take]


This is just some recent guff I checked out over the weekend. Not too many newsmakers, but just enough to keep us fantasy diehards fed for a few days. The draft continues to inch closer and more rumors continue to fly. I'll be sure to keep my eye on things as they develop and offer my thoughts, but for now here's my take on some recent news.....

My Take...

QB BYRON LEFTWICH SIGNED BY BUCCANEERS
The Buc's have a full-house with four quarterbacks on the roster. Leftwich's signing would indicate that he's in and word is that Griese could be gone. Leftwich has the tools to be a player and if he can learn the system quickly it would not surprise to see him as the team's starter. Even though there's been a change at command, I would not expect this team to lose much of its’ identity on defense, but they would seem better suited as more of a power running team with Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward. If Leftwich does win the job, he'll have minimal value as a starting fantasy quarterback in 2009. He's an option worth leaving for much, much later.

RB THOMAS JONES A NO-SHOW THIS OFFSEASON
This really shouldn't have much significance in fantasy drafts, initially. The Jets starting running back had a solid 2008 with 1,300-yards and 15 touchdowns, but at 31, Jones is definitely on the back nine of his career. His hold-out from voluntary workouts won't win him any favor with new head coach Rex Ryan, who could opt to draft a running back and utilize much more the Jets playmaking scat back Leon Washington. As long as nothing crazy happens over the summer, Jones figures to be involved in the offense, but his numbers will likely drop some in 2009 making him nothing more than mid-level (low RB2) fantasy option at running back.

QB JEFF GARCIA SIGNED BY RAIDERS
The Raiders once again are looking to retread a player’s career. With all the problems the team had on offense last season, adding Garcia does nothing to better their chances. Garcia, slowed by injuries and likely age just doesn't have the tools to be a top flight performer at his position. JaMarcus Russell has more upside with his strong arm and size, but his inconsistency and lack of experience could open the door for Garcia to see some playing time in 2009. Fantasy owners might want to give this a look later during the regular season. Garcia may have enough to get owners through the byes, but can't see much more than that.

WR ROY WILLIAMS PREPPING FOR BIG 2009 SEASON
The Cowboys have put all their eggs in a few (passing) baskets in 2009 and Williams will be one. With T.O. out in Dallas, Williams inherits the number one receiver spot to be shared with tight end Jason Witten. While Witten will likely be Romo's safety value and red-zone insurance, the team will undoubtedly be looking for Williams to be their go-to for big catches especially in the corners of the end-zone. 2009 could be a make a break season for Big-Roy. If he lives up to expectations, he could be huge among the leaders in touchdowns and catches this season, but if he fall shorts he could be an expensive fantasy pciks for those that gamble on him early (in their fantasy draft). This jury is still officially out on the Rise of Williams. Let's see how he looks in camp this summer.

QB BRIAN GRIESE COULD BE OUT IN TAMPA
With the signing of Leftwich, someone will eventually have to go. It sounds like Tampa is high on Luke McCown and Leftwich, leaving Griese and Johnson as likely the odd-man out. With Griese demanding a $2.1 million price tag for 2009, Johnson becomes a very easy economical choice. If Griese is cut, he'll likely have to take a pay cut if he wants to play in 2009, and it's more likely wherever he lands, he'll be a back-up. At the moment Griese does not command any fantasy consideration for 2009.

RB JULIUS JONES LOOKING PAST "LAST YEAR"
Last year was then and this is now. With Mike Holmgren gone, Jones will have another shot playing for the Seahawks in 2009. With Mora implementing more of a one-cut style running game, Jones is expecting to be more productive as he thinks this suits his skills. Jones has shown in the past that he can handle the load and he'll head into camp as the team's leading back. If he remains healthy, he could be solid mid-level (mid RB2) fantasy option, especially under Mora. While Mora was head coach in Atlanta, running back Warrick Dunn averaged 1,200-yards/year.



IDP Notes:

There's never a shortage of information when it comes to fantasy, especially on the "Dark side." For those of us that love the game so much and enjoy the custom leagues that incorporate IDPs, here is a little more banter on what's been happening....


LB JAMES HARRISON SIGN BIG DEAL
This is huge for the Steelers and for fantasy owners. Now that this whole contract negotiations stuff is in the past, the leagues defending Defensive Player of the Year can get back to and foucs on what he does best; eat quarterbacks. Harrison is a premiere NFL linebacker and pass-rush specialist. He'll once again be terrorizing offenses and making a huge impact in IDP leagues in 2009. Expect Harrison to be a top-five fantasy pick on defense.

DL KEVIN WILLIAMS HOPEFUL TO WIN CASE
The Vikings are just as hopeful as Williams. The defensive lineman is one of the team’s main anchors on the interior defensive line. His absence would be greatly felt and very tough to fill. While he's an impact run-stopper for the Vikes, Williams is also a very good interior pass rusher (eight sacks in 2008) and very productive IDP option. If he wins his case, he'll go early in fantasy drafts, but a suspension could see a slight drop in his value (although he could still be worth an early selection).

DL JARED ALLEN WILL PARTAKE IN SOME VOULUNTARY WORKOUTS
Allen is considered one of the hardest working players in the NFL, although he typically does not participate in the voluntary offseason programs. Allen has a personal regiment and he has noted that he's in great shape. This is great news of fantasy owners. Allen played through an assortment of injuires in 2008, but still managed 14.5 sacks and 54 tackles. A healthy Allen could mean bigger numbers in 2009 and likely a top five pick in fantasy IDP drafts.

DL TY WARREN EXPECTS TO BE READY
The Patriots defensive lineman was slowed down with multiple injuries in 2008 that limited him to only two sacks. Not typically known as a pass rusher, Warren does his best work against the run. In 2006 he registered 84 tackles to go along with seven sacks. Warren expects to be ready by July and at 28 years of age he can still be quite productive. If he returns on time for camp and is completely recovered, the Pat's defensive end could sneak by some and be a great late round value pick in fantasy drafts.

LB ZACH THOMAS SIGNS WITH CHIEFS
The Chiefs are converting to a 3-4 defensive scheme and the signing of Thomas will fill one of the team's needs on the inside at linebacker. While Zack is a very intelligent and capable defensive player, this will be his third team in as many years and he's not the same player his was back in Miami. Thomas should do fine in the 3-4 and could come close to his 94 tackles in 2008, but fantasy owners should be careful to not over-value the name. Remember at 36 (when the season starts) this will be his 14th season of duty.


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