December 17th, 2016
Saturday Evening Edition
Week 15 Starts: My Starts
Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has had a bumpy road of a season in 2016, but tomorrow he may find some smooth sailing. The Saints defense is coming to town and over the past two weeks they have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, The Saints have also had their struggles against quarterbacks on the road setting this up as a possible nice game for Palmer. The Cardinals signal caller has also passed for over 300 yards in each of his last three homes games, but only includes four touchdowns and two picks. Palmer’s favorable matchup makes him one of my faves for Sunday.
The Ravens will host the Eagles on Sunday and quarterback Joe Flacco is ready to deal. Flacco is coming off back-to-back big performances with 381 yards and 324 yards passing. This week he gets the Eagles defense that has been the second worse versus opposing quarterbacks the past four weeks allowing 288 yards passing per game and 7 touchdowns. Flacco seems to be heating up with six touchdowns and a better than 73 percent completion rate over his past two starts. Flacco may not be quite fantasy gold, but he could be shining silver on Sunday.
He may not be top 10 this season, but Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger could be this week and is worth consideration for Sunday. In his early matchup this season against the Bengals (their opponent on Sunday) Big Ben passed for 259 yards and three scores, but this was without his running back LeVeon Bell. With Bell healthy and a big contributor as a pass receiver, the passing game is strong and those week 2 numbers seem more than attainable this week. With a top five running back and a top five wide receiver (Antonio Brown), Big Ben is my top 10 pick.
These are not necessarily MUST starts, but rather just some plays I believe will have success this week.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
December 16th, 2016
Friday Evening Edition
Friday Fantasy Fixx
With a lot on the line this week, for fantasy owners risk is not a friend this Sunday. If you are looking for a strong play and success this week, there are several players owners may need to avoid.
Over the his last eight games Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall has scored in double-digits once once, back in week 12. This Sunday Marshall gets the Dolphins and will face a defense that held him to five receptions for 46 yards back in week 9.
In the Jaguars past four games wide receiver Allen Robinson has been on a huge decline. His 2016 season has been anything but memorable. Since week 11 Robinson has scored less than 8 fantasy points, including just 1.7 last week on 1 catch for 17 yards. This week he’ll see the Texans whose he has had luck against this season, but with just 6 receptions for 72 yards over his last three starts at best he’s a risky play this week.
Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was a top 10 receiver in 2015, but this season he is hanging on to remain in the top 40. Hopkins has scored in double-digits in just one of his past eight games and in his last matchup versus the Jaguars in week 10 he was held to five receptions for 48 yards on 13 targets. The Jaguars allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so even though this would be a hard sit this play has risk written all over it.
Finally, quietly the Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin has managed to find himself in the top 25 this season, but he has done this in rather unspectacular fashion. Benjamin has not had any big performances since his week two 22 fantasy points performance. In his last 10 games he’s only scored in double figures once and in the past two weeks he’s tallied just 3 receptions for 29 yards. With the Redskins on his plate for this week, Benjamin will face a defense that allows the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Fantasy owners may want to avoid these guys on Sunday.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
December 15th, 2016
Thursday Late Night Edition
Week 15 Fantasy Notes
Sunday is funday in fantasy football circles and with this weekend setting up as the Semi-final matchups for most season long leagues, now is the time to cash in on your bell-cows and fantasy studs.
Along with your starters, such as the LeVeon Bells, Aaron Rodgers, and Odell Beckham Jrs, fantasy owners will need to find those deepers plays to pay off.
One such play that could pay huge dividends this weekend is the Falcons wide receiver Taylor Gabriel. Over the past several weeks the big play specialist has been just that. Averaging 5 targets over the past six weeks, Gabriel has scored well with double-digit in five of his past six games and five touchdowns. This week’s matchup against the Niners looks mighty tasty for Gabriel squaring off against a defense that allows the most fantasy points versus opposing wide receivers. With Julio Jones still limping along, fantasy owners can expect Gabriel to be in the mix once again on Sunday.
The Chiefs have their own big play specialist in wide receiver Tyreek Hill and on Sunday he’ll be turned loose on the Tennessee Titans. Over the past five weeks Hill has been hit and miss scoring in double-digits in three of his last five games. But this Sunday Hill will be matched up against a Titans secondary that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver. Seeing a fair share of targets (8 targets per game) over the past five games, Hill should have plenty of chances to score big this week.
Healthy again the Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs might finally return to his big game status, after disappearing over the past month for fantasy owners. Diggs has not scored in double figures in five weeks, since his 13 reception performance in week 10. With the Vikes set to face the Colts on Sunday this week, Diggs will take his shots against a defense that allows the 19th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver, including 13 touchdowns (tied for 8th most allowed). Looking more closely the Colts have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks. Diggs could be ready to break out again and this could be the week for it.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
December 11th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition
Sunday Starts
Per Adam Schefter, the Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian will start today. That’s enough for me to roll out wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. In his previous five starts with Siemian under center, Thomas is averaging nearly 10 targets per game. The Titans allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and over the past four weeks, their secondary has been the worst. Start Thomas!
The Vikings and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will face the Jaguars today in Jacksonville and while on paper the matchup may not seem all to appealing, I am leaning with Diggs. The Jags have been stingy for the most part this season, but coming off a strong showing (8 receptions off 8 targets) against the Cowboys Diggs will be tough to slow down. Diggs is the Vikings number one receiver, healthy again look for double-digits and lots of chances to be the case today. Start Diggs.
Another receiver I am leaning on heavily for Sunday, the Falcons Taylor Gabriel. The Falcons wideout plays more like a scat-back and his speed is deadly. With Julio Jones banged up and not looking good for Sunday I expect Gabriel to see a huge uptick in his weekly 5.25 targets per game that he’s enjoyed the past four weeks. Facing the Rams could see him improve his 4 touchdown total this week. Over the past two weeks, the Rams secondary has been awful versus opposing wide receivers allowing the 5th most fantasy points, including 4 touchdowns. Start Gabriel!
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
