FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Week 5 TE Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

Last week the Packers tight end Martellus Bennett, currently the No.16 fantasy tight end in PPR, saw a slight bump in activity with 7 targets going for 6 receptions and 39 yards. His yardage total was his typical disappointing production, but his catches and targets were a nice sign of more involvement in the pass game. With the potential of no Ty Montgomery (ribs) and possibly receiver Davante Adams (concussion) out this week, Bennett could be in line for larger role and even more targets making him my No.6 fantasy TE this week; I like the odds.

There’s a good chance this week fantasy owners will finally see the Chargers tight end Hunter Henry from 2016. This week the Bolts fly across the country to take on the Giants and their defense that allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Giants allow the 2nd most receptions (29), 3rd most receiving yards (309), and the most touchdowns at five. Henry has been quiet so far this season with a couple of goose eggs and just one score in four games. This could be the week he makes a bang and breaks out. He’s my No.10 fantasy TE, definitely a worthy start.

Creeping in at No.12 is the Bengals Tyler Kroft. The 3rd year tight end is a big target at 6’5” and with starter Tyler Eifert out for week 5, Kroft will again get some play. The Bengals will square off with Buffalo this Sunday and the Bills do a good job against opposing tight ends, but I am playing the odds. Kroft at his size is a red-zone threat and the Bills have yet to allow a touchdown to opposing tight ends. I have Kroft in as my No.12 fantasy tight end; I say he scores Sunday.

Here are my TE rankings for Week 5;

1.Travis Kelce

2. Zach Ertz

3. Delanie Walker

4. Charles Clay

5. Jimmy Graham

6. Martellus Bennett

7. Kyle Rudolph

8. Jason Witten

9. Evan Engram

10. Hunter Henry

11. Jared Cook

12. Tyler Kroft

13. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

14. Jesse James

15. Zach Miller

16. Eric Ebron

17. Benjamin Watson

18. Julius Thomas

19. Ryan Griffin

20. Antonio Gates

That’s My Take for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Week 5 WR Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

Look who’s at the top for Week 5, OBJ. It’s probably not a surprise, but maybe it should be. Through the first 4 weeks, Odell Beckham Jr has been one of the season’s early disappointments entering this week as the No.19 fantasy WR, three spots behind his teammate Sterling Shepard. At 19, OBJ has been playable every week, but this could be the week that elevates Beckham Jr back to the top. The Giants are home this week playing host to the Los Angeles Chargers who allow the 12th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Most important the Chargers have allowed 6 touchdowns to WRs, playing right into the hands of the Giants dynamic and playmaking receiver. OBJ has two touchdowns through 4 weeks, fantasy owners can expect that number to change.

With the potential (and likely) return of Sam Bradford this Monday night, Vikings receiver Adam Thielen peaks in at No.17. Thielen has 24 receptions for 358 yards receiving (4th in the league) with zero touchdowns, good enough for the No.13 fantasy WR (in PPR). Back in week 1, Thielen teamed up with Bradford for a stat line of 9/157/0. Against the Bears on Monday night Thielen should have some success against a secondary that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

Checking in at No.22 is the Cardinals receiver Jaron Brown. Through the first four weeks of the season Brown has been pretty reliable and productive; 14 receptions (2nd on team), 205 yards receiving (2nd on team), and 29 targets (2nd on team). Last week with the return of wide receiver John Brown and a healthier JJ Nelson, Jaron led the way with 12 targets, 8 receptions, and 105 receiving yards. It’s looking like the other Brown and Nelson will once again be available. This week is a prime matchup for the Cardinals receivers facing an Eagles defense that has struggled mightily against opposing receivers, allowing the 3rd highest fantasy points, 3rd most receptions, and 3rd most receiving yards. It’s easy to see why I have Larry Fitzgerald at No.8 this week and Jaron at 22.

Here are my Week 5 WR rankings;

1.Odell Beckham Jr

2. Jordy Nelson

3. Antonio Brown

4. AJ Green

5. DeAndre Hopkins

6. Dez Bryant

7. Stefon Diggs

8. Larry Fitzgerald

9. Keenan Allen

10. TY Hilton

11. Devante Parker

12. Doug Baldwin

13. Tyreek Hill

14. Pierre Garcon

15. Golden Tate

16. Randall Cobb

17. Adam Thielen

18. Sammy Watkins

19. Alshon Jeffery

20. Amari Cooper

21. Jarvis Landry

22. Jaron Brown

23. Kelvin Benjamin

24. Tyrell Williams

25. Rishard Matthews

26. Martavis Bryant

27. Devin Funchess

28. Sterling Shepard

29. Michael Crabtree

30. Jeremy Maclin

These are my WR rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 5 RB Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

Not much of a surprise here, leading the way for Week 5 is the Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Last week Bell led all running backs with 34.60 fantasy points (PPR scoring) turning in a stat line of 35/144/2 and adding 4 receptions for another 42 yards. Bell has been the workhorse the past several weeks averaging 30-plus touches in his last three games. With a home contest on the slate this week against the Jaguars, not much expected to change here.

I am showing some love for running back Alex Collins this week; he’s my No.17 fantasy RB. The Ravens ball carrier has shown some nice running ability averaging over 9 yards per carry the past two weeks on 18 total carries. His problem is holding onto the ball. If he can overcome this big flaw, his matchup against the Raiders this week could be quite productive. The Raiders have allowed the 10th most rushing yards to opposing running backs and over 4 yards per carry. The Ravens offense is in great need of a spark and this matchup with Collins in the backfield could be what the doctor ordered.

Also coming into play this week is the Giants running back Wayne Gallman. Reports indicate, normal starter Paul Perkins is likely to be sidelined, opening the door for Gallman to take advantage. Last week Gallman rushed 11 times for 42 yards and this week he’ll get a crack at the Chargers 31st ranked run defense. The Giants offense is in need of some balance with their running game (ranked 30th) barely showing a pulse. Gallman has RB3 and flex status written all over him as my No.24 fantasy RB.

Here are my RB rankings for Week 5;

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Kareem Hunt

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Todd Gurley

5. Jay Ajayi

6. Leonard Fournette

7. LeSean McCoy

8. Carlos Hyde

9. Melvin Gordon

10. Lamar Miller

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Jordan Howard

13. Ameer Abdullah

14. Bilal Powell

15. Christian McCaffrey

16. Frank Gore

17. Alex Collins

18. Latavius Murray

19. Joe Mixon

20. Duke Johnson

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Tarik Cohen

23. LeGarrette Blount

24. Wayne Gallman

25. Andre Ellington

26. Jonathan Stewart

27. Giovani Bernard

28. Isaiah Crowell

29. Aaron Jones

30. Wendell Smallwood

These are my Top-30 rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 5 QB Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

The bye weeks have started and it’s time to look deeper each week for starting help and depth at all of your positions. With names like Brees and Ryan off this week, a lot of owners will be looking to a backup solution or the waiver wire for Week 5.

Deshaun Watson is my popular pick for week 5. He doesn’t have a great matchup, but what I like is Watson and his ability to make plays outside the pocket with his feet. He’s the leading rusher for quarterbacks after 4 weeks and the Chiefs have trouble keeping the QB contained. Watson is my No.4 fantasy QB this week.

Looking down the tree a little further, reports are suggesting Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford will play. Last season Bradford led the league with a record setting 71.6 completion percentage and this season he opened his campaign completing 84 percent of his passes back in week 1. If he’s healthy and returns Monday night, Bradford is my No.12 fantasy QB this week and worthy of starting consideration against a Bears 17th ranked secondary.

The Rams quarterback Jared Goff comes in at No.13 and should be considered a possible start this week for owners looking to fill a bye week need. Goff has played very well this season and is the No.11 fantasy QB through the first 4 weeks. And while the Seahawks (the Rams Week 5 opponent) present a formidable challenge this week, the Rams are a well balanced offense this season (4th ranked passing, 16th ranked rushing) and the highest scoring team at 35.5 points per game. Goff and company will also present many challenges for the Seahawks 15th ranked defense overall.

Here are my Week 5 QB rankings;

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Dak Prescott

3. Carson Wentz

4. Deshaun Watson

5. Matthew Stafford

6. Carson Palmer

7. Russell Wilson

8. Eli Manning

9. Ben Roethlisberger

10. Alex Smith

11. Cam Newton

12. Sam Bradford

13. Jared Goff

14. Marcus Mariota

15. Philip Rivers

16. Jay Cutler

17. Brian Hoyer

18. Tyrod Taylor

19. Andy Dalton

20. Josh McCown

These are my Top-20 rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

What I Learned from Week 4

(Quick Takes) 

Cutler and Dolphins offense in trouble.

After watching their awful performance in Week 4 against the Saints, you get the sense the Dolphins offense is in really trouble if things don't start clicking quick. Cutler was pulled out of retirement because he knew the offense and had familiarity with the system. With receivers like Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker and running back Jay Ajayi, this team wasn't necessarily expected to be better, but should have been just as good. So far this has not been the case and this week they are home with Tennessee rolling into town. Last week the Titans were wiped out by the Texans surrendering 57 points. If the Dolphins are going to get things right, if fantasy owners are going to be able to trust players like Ajayi, Landry, and Parker, this is the week to make it all happen.

Texans have something special brewing.

I've been talking this up all week and if you haven't heard me, you just haven't been listening. Yes, it's a little early to making such bold statements about Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the kid is playing special. Through 4 games he's been special. Watson is the No.7 fantasy QB, ahead of names like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. He's 2-1 as a starter, making plays, throwing for 7 touchdowns, while running for 2 more. He's a rookie, so mistakes will come, but the resiliency this kid has already shown, he's making me a believer every Sunday.

Vikings receivers need Sam Bradford

When the season opened, back in week one the Vikings offense and passing game burst onto the scene with Bradford and his talented pass catchers leading the way. Diggs (No.1 in PPR) and Thielen (No.13 in PPR) are still among the top pass receiving fantasy options this season, but their numbers tailed off a bit last week and fantasy owners have to be getting the sense they really need Bradford back. If these two and tight end Kyle Rudolph are going to run with the fantasy big dogs, they need their starting quarterback. Bradford knows the system well, he's efficient with the ball, and deadly accurate; their numbers get a bump when Sam plays.

Are the Falcons Smoke and Mirrors?

To put it simply, the Falcons are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 after surviving week 1 & 3 scares against the Bears and Lions. Last season the Falcons were a dominate team, lighting up the scoreboard. This season seems different. The team is still averaging 26 points per game (ranks 6th in the league), but they are definitely doing it in different ways. Matt Ryan had elevated his play a year ago to elite status, but this season he's just the 22nd fantasy QB and as would be expected wide receiver Julio Jones is the No.25 fantasy WR (in PPR). These are fall below fantasy owner expectations. Are the Falcons as good as advertised and will Ryan's numbers eventually reflect or are they telling now and the worse is to come? We'll see.

Is something wrong with Big Ben?

Big Ben has never really been a Top-5 fantasy QB. Since 2011 he has only finished inside the Top-10 once, in 2013 when he was the No.5 fantasy QB. Despite the lack of top finishes, fantasy owners have to be frustrated with Roethlisberger's current No.21 ranking. In four games he's only topped 250 yards passing once, and has just two multiple touchdowns games; two games of two. These are not quite the fantasy numbers owners are looking for. Historically Big Ben has always played well at home versus the road, so even though it's Jacksonville up next owners are hoping playing at home this Sunday will help him to get things going.

The Giants run game stuck in reverse.

After four games, it's pretty apparent the Giants running is non-existent. The Giants are the 30th ranked run offense this season and their 3.2 yards per carry average ranks near the bottom of the league. The prime culprit for these poor numbers is running back Paul Perkins. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry this season and has just 61 rushing yards through 4 games. A starter to begin the year, Perkins (ribs) who is likely sidelined this week has fallen off the fantasy map and running backs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will now try to resuscitate the Giants lifeless run game.

Cousins and offense starting to show something.

There's no doubt, had Terrelle Pryor hung onto that touchdown throw late in the game and the Redskins came out on top, the talk on Monday would have been look out for Washington. This was the second straight game for Cousins where he played very well. In a tough road matchup Cousins was 14 of 24 for 220 yards passing and two scores (which could have easily been three). He also added 38 yards on 7 scrambles/runs. If the Redskins can get some of their pieces like Jordan Reed and Robert Kelley, healthy and back soon, then lookout because these guys could start to heat up real fast.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch This Week

Week 4 was an exciting week filled with brilliant performances (Deshaun Watson’s 5 touchdowns), more disappointment (DeMarco Murray just 31 yards rushing and Dolphins offense zero touchdowns), lots of big plays (Bilal Powell’s 75-yards scamper for six), and plenty of excitement to catch your attention and have you looking forward to Week 5. Here are the 5 things to watch this Week;

Deshaun versus the Chiefs defense.

The Texans rookie quarterback has been brilliant the last three weeks averaging over 23.0 fantasy points per game (the No.3 fantasy QB during this stretch) and leading the Texans to two wins. In his three starts Watson has accounted for 8 total touchdowns; 6 pass, 2 rush. The Chiefs defense has been pretty good, but a stat to note and something to watch on Sunday, Watson’s mobility and ability to run. Watson leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and the Chiefs have allowed 93, 3rd most to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs will need to be careful when in coverage, because Watson has the ability to pull the ball down and take off.

Jay Cutler and Dolphins offense.

After a dismal week 4 performance it’s going to be real interesting for fantasy owners to see what the Dolphins do this week. With players like Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Jay Ajayi, and Julius Thomas, you expect quarterback Jay Cutler and company to product more than zero points. Well there matchup could not have been dialed up any better with Tennessee coming to town. Last week the Titans defense was toasted for 57 points allowed and 445 yards of offense. Landry, Parker, and Ajayi and fantasy household names, so owners will be watching to see if their players can cash in on a reeling defense.

LeSean McCoy and the Bills on the road this week.

The Bills have been on a roll this season, winning three of their first four games, including wins over the Broncos and Falcons. When you think of the Bills, you immediately think Shady and his running prowess. The funny thing is Shady has been doing it more with his hands, than his legs. His rushing numbers are down at the moment (16th ranked fantasy RB in PPR), but he’s elevated his receiving game this season with 21 receptions through 4 weeks (on a pace for 80+ catches). McCoy’s career high in catches is 78 back in 2010. Shady has a tough matchup against a stingy Bengals defense, but could once again have success as a receiver out of the backfield against a defense that has allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing running backs.

Rams-Seahawks matchup will be telling.

This game is going to be a good one to follow this Sunday. The fact it’s a divisional matchup is enough to capture interest, but the direction these two teams have been taking of late is the catalyst that will have many looking in with great interest. The Rams are 3-1 and through 4 weeks, their offense has looked leaps and bounds ahead of last season. On the other side, the Seahawks seem to be in scramble mode pasting and patching things together on the offense side. Poor line play, a struggling running game, and injuries to key skill positions have forced Wilson (the No.3 fantasy QB) to carry the load (41 pass attempts through 4 games). Can Wilson continue to be the offense for Seattle and can the Rams quarterback Jared Goff and his offense prove they are legit. A strong performance on both sides would prove their cases.

Sam Bradford’s return under center.

Quite simply, with Bradford calling the signals in week one, the Vikings offense looked formidable. Since then, the offense and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at times have been a mere shell of themselves. The reports are indicating that Bradford is on track to start Monday night. It’s a divisional matchup with the Bears on the road, so you know it’s not going to be a cakewalk at Soldier Field. The Bears will present a respectable challenge, but with Bradford back under center fantasy owners can feel better about their chances rolling out Diggs, Thielen, and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 4 Recap

(Week Four Fallout)

For Vikings fans, it was fun while it lasted, although it didn't last very long before quarterback Case Keenum came back to earth. In Week 3 Keenum was brilliant, but this past Sunday against a tough Lions defense he did not have the same success. This is something fantasy owners are going to have to realize going forward, with starter Sam Bradford sidelined the value of players like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph will take a hit from time to time.

Week 4 also offered some eye-opening performances to take note, like the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Coming off a solid week 3 performance against the Patriots, Watson doubled down in week 5 with a huge 5-touchdown (4 pass, 1 rush) showing. DeMarco Murray provided less eye-opening and more mystery as his 2017 season continued it's flutter. He's had only one start worthy game in four tries; fantasy owners are scratching their heads.

The Giants running game situation is not one that has been envious thus far this season. One of it's components that been a disappointment has been Paul Perkins. Through 4 games Perkins has been awful averaging just 2 yards per rushing attempt and totaling just  61 yards rushing; he's completely off the fantasy radar.

A concern to watch for fantasy owners is the Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season Crowder finished 2016 as the No.31 fantasy WR (in PPR) with 67 catches for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. Through 4 games he's currently outside the Top-50 and in week four he was targeted just one time. Considering where you took Crowder in your draft, there's reason to be concerned.

This is just some of the fallout from week 4, running through the slate of games here's a few more observations;

#1. Big Ben and Martavis out of sync.

Through 4 weeks, these two have yet to really hook up and blow up as they did in 2015. Bryant has been limited to no more than 3 catches (twice this season) per game while only topping 50 yards receiving once; 91 yards in week 2. Big Ben on the other has not caught fire either. In four games Big Ben has yet to pass for 300 yards and has multiple touchdowns in only two games this season, the last one in week 2. Fantasy owners are waiting for these two to get cooking and this Sunday they may be again waiting since the two will face Jacksonville.

#2. Is Broncos RB Jamaal Charles underused?

The Broncos don't have any problems in their backfield right now, with CJ Anderson holding down the fort, Jamaal Charles healthy, and Devontae Booker returning from injury, they have depth and experience. One noticable statistic that is hard to avoid, is the yards per touch; currently Charles at 5.4 yards per dominates this category more than a half yard better than CJ. The other important stat is CJ has 83 touches to Charles 36. Jam is healthy and at times looks explosive. With Booker healthy, it may be time to give Charles some run and see what he can do with the reins or at least with an extended look. Big plays is one of the elements the Broncos offense is lacking.

#3. Palmer back in play with his receiving cast.

With both wide receivers JJ Nelson and John Brown returning to action in Week 4, Palmer passed for over 300 yards for the third straight week in a row. One element missing from his game right now is touchdowns; Palmer has just six in four games (a little on the low side). He's got a prime matchup this week agains the Eagles, so Palmer is definitely in play.

#4. Giovani Bernard needs more touches in Cincy.

Quite simply, with the Bengals offense in flux there's been a search at the running back position for production and consistency. Through the first quarter of the season, the Bengal may still be looking. Right now the lead horse in the backfield is rookie running back Joe Mixon with 63 touches is ranked as the 33rd fantasy RB in PPR. Running back Giovani Bernard has 26 touches this season and is currently the 28th ranked fantasy RB. Giovani needs more touches.

#5. In case you don't know, Kamara is the Saint to own.

If you been watching or listening to the buzz out of New Orleans, then you know the favorite in the Saints backfield is rookie Alvin Kamara. Through the teams first 4 games, Kamara leads the backfield in yards per carry average (5.53), receiving targets (28), receiving yards (147), and touchdowns (2). Kamara is also the 19th ranked fantasy RB in PPR, as compared to starter Mark Ingram ranked 26th. Kamara is the one to own in New Orleans.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega