FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

Tonight’s matchup between the Saints and Jaguars may lack the same fireworks appeal as the Sunday Night showdown between the Dolphins and Eagles, but it will have plenty of fantasy relevance. With stars like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Calvin Ridley headlining tonight’s showcase, there should be enough action to keep fantasy managers interested. 

Ones to Watch

The Jaguars starting running rack Travis Etienne Jr (fantasy RB3 the past three weeks) has been rolling of late, averaging 113 yards of offense and better than a touchdown over his last three games. The Saints rookie receiver Rashid Shaheed scored his second touchdown of the season this past Sunday and has been targeted 15 times in his last three games.

For the DFS play tonight, I have some favorites.

Alvin Kamara (Saint-RB) Kamara has been heavily targeted (25 targets) since week 4, when he returned from his three-game suspension. The Saints ball-carrier has yet to break out, but the heavy volume (25 touches per game this season) and fantasy production is there. It’s just a matter of time before Kamara has a blow up game. He’s my favorite in this one tonight.

Derek Carr (Saints-QB) The Jaguars have a pretty good defense, so it could be tough sledding for Carr and company tonight. The Saints signal caller is now a few weeks removed from his shoulder injury and each week he’s seeming to play a little better. Last week Carr passed for 353 yards passing 50 times. He may not quite get to 50 in this one, but he could have some great success with Kamara out of the backfield and his favorite target in the mid-range, Chris Olave.

Chris Olave (Saints-WR) The Saints top receiving option is coming off a 10-target, 7 reception showing in Week 6. After a fast start this season (32 targets in three games), Olave seemed to have cooled down when his quarterback went down. With Carr now appearing healthy again, fantasy managers can expect to see more of the early season Olave going forward. He’s in for a busy night.

Christian Kirk (Jaguars-WR) After a quiet opening Sunday recording just one catch for 9 yards receiving, Kirk has been the model of consistency for the Jaguars. In his last 5 games he’s had at least 6 targets and recorded at least 6 receptions or scored a touchdown. He’s averaging over 16 fantasy points per game during this stretch and is the fantasy WR15. He’s a safe play in this matchup tonight.

Evan Engram (Jaguars-TE) Just like Kirk, the Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been Mr. Consistent. This season he’s scored in double digit fantasy points in 4 of 6 games, only once has he scored less than 9.9 fantasy points, and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in 5 of his 6 games. Engram is the fantasy TE6 this season and while on paper the matchup against the Saints defense (ranked 7th vs tight ends) looks tough, in week 6 the Texans were able to enjoy success going to the tight end position. I’d expect the usual numbers from Engram in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 3 JMO Notes:

After a tough matchup against the Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey in week 2, the Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (currently WR15, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) is hoping to put his 5 (catches) for 40 (yards receiving) in the past. This week he’ll look to bounce back against a Chargers defense that has allowed a 79% completion success rate to wide receivers. Hopkins is too good to struggle for two weeks in a row, expect a bounce back game on Sunday.

The Viking running back Dalvin Cook (currently RB2, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) has been a fantasy stud through two games this season. Cook is averaging 23 touches and 311 yards of offense per game with three rushing touchdowns. With the Raiders coming to town on Sunday, fantasy owners can expect more of the same.

The Bengals defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including the most rushing yards allowed to running backs (308 rushing yards) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (3 rushing touchdowns). In two games, the Bills running back Frank Gore has found the fountain of youth, leading the club with 30 carries. This week he looks like he’s got a great chance to improve his 2.9 yards per carry average; start him.

Fantasy Five

Stud - The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston played well last week on the road against the Panthers, in week 3 he gets home cooking against the Giants. In two games the Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and over 325 yards passing yards per game. Just reading the tea leaves on this one, the Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd will take his shot against the Bills secondary that through two games has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Through two games Boyd leads the team with 21 targets and 18 receptions and will pad those numbers on Sunday. An easy call here with the Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Facing the Dolphins defense (ranked 31st against the run) this week, it should be all Zeke, all day.
Dud - The Chiefs will be without starting running back Damien Williams, but running back LeSean McCoy is a bit banged up and taking on the league’s number run defense. It could be a long or short day for Shady.
Boom - The Packers defense has been snake bit by running backs through two weeks, on the ground (6.0 yard per carry allowed-and in the air (18 receptions allowed-most allowed). This week, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (13 targets this season), the team’s primary pass receiving back should see plenty of opportunities and could finally find the end zone. After a breakout week two, Niners running back Raheem Mostert could be making a case for himself to stay on the field, even after Tevin Coleman heals. Mostert currently ranks as RB17 in fantasy (PPR scoring) and his matchup against the Steelers (8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs) this week, could yield more success.
Bust - The Raiders tight end Darren Waller (TE8 in fantasy) will face a stout Vikings defense on the road this week; he could see his numbers cool on Sunday. The Redskins quarterback Case Keenum (QB6 in fantasy this season) has had a bit of a hot hand, but it could get cold fast on Monday night against the Bears' defense (7 sacks this season).
Sleeper - With no Tre’Quan Smith and no Drew Brees, the check down on Sunday could feature the Saints tight end Jared Cook who faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Bears running back Tarik Cohen was targeted 10 times in week one and 15 for the season. He could see more work in the slot against a leaky Redskins secondary on Monday night. The Broncos running back Royce Freeman (RB27) has been seeing enough work this season to be not only fantasy relevant, but flex worthy. He should get plenty of touches on Sunday against the Packers and could find pay dirt for the first time in 2019.


Recap Week 2
Stud - The Ravens Lamar Jackson (QB2) and Mark Andrews (TE1) came through with solid week 2 performances, but the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (WR54) was held in check, all PPR scoring.
Dud - The Rams tight ends finished Week 2 as TE23 and TE30, none worth starting or playing consideration. The Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was basically a no-show exiting early in week 2 with an injury and a donut for a stat line. The Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay finished the week as RB26, not terrible especially considering the matchup against the Bears.
Boom - The Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley was WR8 in week 2, the Bills wideout John Brown was WR33 (flex play territory), and the Seahawks rookie receiver DK Metcalf was WR29 (flex play), again all PPR scoring.
Bust - The Bills veteran running back Frank Gore was an effective RB11 in week 2, while the Titans running back Dion Lewis (RB64) was just forgettable. 
Sleeper - the Niners running back Raheem Mostert was RB3 with a huge day, while the Steelers tight end Vance McDonald (TE3) was also big with a pair of scores. The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (QB27) was awful last week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2: Fantasy Five

Studs: 
I was able to watch a lot of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in week one and I have to say one word, impressive. We knew Jackson was a talented runner, but he must have put in work this offseason, because in week one he became a talented passer too. Let’s just say, I’m buying what I am seeing or saw in week one. His matchup this week at home against the Cardinals who allowed 385 yards passing to Matthew Stafford and the Lions, looks savory. 

In week one, Jackson hit on a number of downfield throws for big plays, but he also found his trusty tight end Mark Andrews on 8 of 8 throws for 108 yards and a score. The Cardinals allowed the Lions tight end TJ Hockenson to run roughshod in week one, so Andrews could see similar success.

Duds:
There are just too many viable wide receivers in the Rams passing attack, which unfortunately means if you play tight end, you’ll spend most of your Sundays blocking. In week one the Rams tight ends combined were out-targeted by the wideouts, 31-6. Even with his touchdown reception in week one, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee only had 20 yards receiving on 4 receptions; heavily touchdown dependent for fantasy relevance. I am fading all Rams tight ends, until further notice.

While I actually like the Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay, it’s quite evident he and fellow running back Royce Freeman are in a full-blown time-share. Lindsay played in 33 snaps, while Freeman was on the field for 29. Lindsay also out-touched Freeman, 17-11, but only out-produced 66-61 yards of offense. In basically a 50/50 share, and a tough matchup against a stout Bears' defense, there just may not be enough opportunity for Lindsay to much.

Booms:
Playing on the national spotlight on Sunday night, I am expecting a big bounce back game for the home team Falcons. Calvin Ridley was relatively quiet, but startable in week one with 4 catches for 64 yards and a score (Fantasy WR27 for the week, PPR scoring). In a potential shootout, MGM Mirage has the over/under at 52.5 points, I am expecting a big game from the speedy wideout. The Eagles secondary was torched in week one by the Redskins passing game, allowing 4 plays of 20 yards or more, including two of 40+ yards. This sounds like a matchup right up Ridley’s alley.

In week one the Bills receiver John Brown was a solid WR1 fantasy play (PPR scoring), recording 7 catches for 123 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 targets. This week the Bills take on the Giants and I am doubling down and “Smokey” John Brown. The Giants defense struggled mightily against the pass in week one and even if Brown doesn’t see another 10 targets, he should see anywhere from 6-8 which will be enough to do WR1 damage for a second week.

Busts:
In week one, the Bills backfield consisted of running backs Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon, and (rookie) Devin Singletary. The offense ran a total of 69 plays and the breakdown in the backfield was as follows; Yeldon-2, Gore-19, and Singletary-48. It’s only a matter of time before Singletary dominates the touches too. Gore, 11 carries for 20 yards rushing in week one is seeing his fantasy value plummet. He can be dropped.

The Titans running back Dion Lewis did see action on 26 of 61 plays in week one, but his poor production (13 yards of offense) and limited opportunity (6 touches) will have owners questioning whether he’s worth holding. With the Titans other running back Derrick Henry seeing 20 touches in week one, this hardly looks like a time-share split. Although, Lewis’ 42% snap percentage indicates some involvement, but keep him on your bench for now, even in PPR.

Sleepers:
With the Niners running back Tevin Coleman shelved for the next couple of weeks, I see Raheem Mostert as a potential week 2 sleeper. The talk has been Matt Breida, but Mostert was the more effective running in week one. When given the opportunity, Mostert has showed some flash. Week 2, the Niners will need their running game and Mostert could be in line for a sizeable workshare.

The Steelers tight Vance McDonald was basically invisible in week one, finally appearing in the final minute of the team’s week one contest against the Patriots. The Steelers ran a lot of 4 receiver sets in the contest (with little success) and there were times Big Ben (Roethlisberger) did look for McDonald but did not have the time to make the throw. The good news, McDonald was the only targeted tight end for the Steelers, so when he faces a Seahawks defense this Sunday, good things could happen. In week one the Seahawks secondary saw Bengals tight ends register 9 catches for 93 yards on 10 targets. I like McDonald to bounce back nicely in week 2.

I watched the Monday night game between the Broncos and Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr looked very sharped. This is his second year under head coach John Gruden and it looks like Carr has many huge strides. Carr was accurate, precise, and showed great poise against a Broncos defense that showed little resistance. I don’t expect to see the Chiefs defense to show much more, but rather I expect like Vegas (MGM Mirage over/under is 53.5 points) a shootout. Carr could be a nice DFS play this week.

Recap Week 1
(Stud) I whiffed big-time with my Stud selection as the Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams turned out to be a huge bust in Week one. Williams exited the season opener early with a knee injury, finishing with just 2 catches for 29 yards receiving on three targets. His appearance was disappointing and altogether a bust one he suffered the injury. As of today he’s listed as a Game-time decision for Sunday at the Lions.

(Dud) The Falcons signal caller, Matt Ryan finished the week as the number 15 fantasy quarterback, so our dud take was spot on. Ryan had a rough going all game long against the Vikings defense throwing 2 interceptions early. Once the game was decided well into the 4th quarter, Ryan was able to salvage his fantasy status with a late score. Matty should definitely see better numbers this Sunday with a home matchup in Week 2.

(Boom) My pick of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson did not work out too well. Johnson did play 50 snaps in week one, which is a very good thing, and did touch the ball 18 times, but he only managed 62 total yards without a score. It was not the start fantasy owners were expecting, but box score results aside, there were some positives that indicate he’ll bounce back. With a favorable week 2 matchup, Johnson owners could be booming soon.

(Bust) For a while it looked like the Browns tight end David Njoku was going to held in check for the day, but a late 3rd quarter score salvaged his day for fantasy owners. I had him as a bust last week, but his final numbers had as the TE8 in fantasy for week one. Fantasy owners still need to take caution with Njoku, his 4 catches for 37 yards receiving (in week one) will keep you nervous.

(Sleeper) I predicted a nice game for the Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. His delivery wasn’t as good as expected. Although his numbers weren’t off the charts, a rushing touchdown paired with a scoring throw kept him viable for some fantasy owners in deeper and two-quarterback leagues. His 98 passing yards were a bit concerning, but I did watch the game and the offense just wasn’t asked to do much in the second half. I’d expect more in week 2.

My Overall Grade=D-

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 13th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

Another exciting Sunday approaches as we are already underway with week 6, following Thursday night’s exciting finish between the Eagles and Panthers. And like the great game we watched Thursday, I am looking for a lot of great and a lot of exciting on Sunday. Here are five things I will be following on Sunday;

#1. The Giants are a mess, time to strike.

Injuries and in-house feuding has the G-men in turmoil. The offense has been decimated with injuries and the defense is a mess with players being suspended. If there was ever a time for the Broncos offense to strike, this Sunday night could be it. Coming off the bye quarterback Trevor Siemian will be looking to kickstart the passing game, while the Jamaal Charles and CJ Anderson will be looking to lead the running game against a 29th ranked Giants run defense.

#2. Steelers Offense needs a Spark.

After a horrid week 5 performance at home against the Jaguars, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the offense are in dire need of a spark. Running back Le’Veon Bell has been anchoring the run game, but what the offense has been missing are the big plays from the passing game. There’s been talk about giving wide receiver Martavis Bryant a break, I don’t buy it. He’s unquestionably your most explosive offensive player, he’s got to be involved this Sunday against the Chiefs. I’ve watched a number of Steelers games this season, and there have been numerous close misses between Big Ben and Martavis. I look for the two to take a number of shots this week and finally dial in a couple for the spark they need.

#3. Watch John Brown on Sunday.

The Cardinals speedy playmaking receiver John Brown has been practicing and getting healthier each week. Last Sunday Brown was targeted 7 times, snagging two balls for 26 yards and a score. Not big numbers in week 5, but his 7 targets equaled the number of targets he saw in week 4. As long as Brown continues to see a steady diet of looks, he’s going to have fantasy value; and this week adds an appetizing matchup against the Buccaneers 26th ranked pass defense.

#4. Deshaun a Stud; It’s Elementary my Dear Watson.

After back-to-back brilliant performances, the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is educating the rest of the league as to how good this stud really is. Through five weeks Watson has cemented himself as a Top-10 fantasy QB. With a date against the Browns this Sunday and a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Watson will once again be putting his theory to the test.

#5. Mack’s time is coming, maybe sooner than later.

Father time has a way of calling when you least expect it and don’t want to listen. While Colts running back Frank Gore has been actively involved in the passing game the past couple of weeks, his rushing numbers have not been impressive; just 151 yards rushing on 51 carries in his last three starts. Rookie running back Marlon Mack had his first breakout game last week totaling 91 yards on 9 carries. The dominant running performance will surely earn him more time on the field and while we’re not ready to retire Gore just yet, you can bet Mack’s time is coming and he should be owned in fantasy leagues.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch This Week

Week 4 was an exciting week filled with brilliant performances (Deshaun Watson’s 5 touchdowns), more disappointment (DeMarco Murray just 31 yards rushing and Dolphins offense zero touchdowns), lots of big plays (Bilal Powell’s 75-yards scamper for six), and plenty of excitement to catch your attention and have you looking forward to Week 5. Here are the 5 things to watch this Week;

Deshaun versus the Chiefs defense.

The Texans rookie quarterback has been brilliant the last three weeks averaging over 23.0 fantasy points per game (the No.3 fantasy QB during this stretch) and leading the Texans to two wins. In his three starts Watson has accounted for 8 total touchdowns; 6 pass, 2 rush. The Chiefs defense has been pretty good, but a stat to note and something to watch on Sunday, Watson’s mobility and ability to run. Watson leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and the Chiefs have allowed 93, 3rd most to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs will need to be careful when in coverage, because Watson has the ability to pull the ball down and take off.

Jay Cutler and Dolphins offense.

After a dismal week 4 performance it’s going to be real interesting for fantasy owners to see what the Dolphins do this week. With players like Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Jay Ajayi, and Julius Thomas, you expect quarterback Jay Cutler and company to product more than zero points. Well there matchup could not have been dialed up any better with Tennessee coming to town. Last week the Titans defense was toasted for 57 points allowed and 445 yards of offense. Landry, Parker, and Ajayi and fantasy household names, so owners will be watching to see if their players can cash in on a reeling defense.

LeSean McCoy and the Bills on the road this week.

The Bills have been on a roll this season, winning three of their first four games, including wins over the Broncos and Falcons. When you think of the Bills, you immediately think Shady and his running prowess. The funny thing is Shady has been doing it more with his hands, than his legs. His rushing numbers are down at the moment (16th ranked fantasy RB in PPR), but he’s elevated his receiving game this season with 21 receptions through 4 weeks (on a pace for 80+ catches). McCoy’s career high in catches is 78 back in 2010. Shady has a tough matchup against a stingy Bengals defense, but could once again have success as a receiver out of the backfield against a defense that has allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing running backs.

Rams-Seahawks matchup will be telling.

This game is going to be a good one to follow this Sunday. The fact it’s a divisional matchup is enough to capture interest, but the direction these two teams have been taking of late is the catalyst that will have many looking in with great interest. The Rams are 3-1 and through 4 weeks, their offense has looked leaps and bounds ahead of last season. On the other side, the Seahawks seem to be in scramble mode pasting and patching things together on the offense side. Poor line play, a struggling running game, and injuries to key skill positions have forced Wilson (the No.3 fantasy QB) to carry the load (41 pass attempts through 4 games). Can Wilson continue to be the offense for Seattle and can the Rams quarterback Jared Goff and his offense prove they are legit. A strong performance on both sides would prove their cases.

Sam Bradford’s return under center.

Quite simply, with Bradford calling the signals in week one, the Vikings offense looked formidable. Since then, the offense and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at times have been a mere shell of themselves. The reports are indicating that Bradford is on track to start Monday night. It’s a divisional matchup with the Bears on the road, so you know it’s not going to be a cakewalk at Soldier Field. The Bears will present a respectable challenge, but with Bradford back under center fantasy owners can feel better about their chances rolling out Diggs, Thielen, and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 22nd 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

It’s another week of the NFL and after the fantastic Thursday Night game between the Rams and Niners we just witnessed, I can hardly wait for the Sunday action. It’s only week 3, so there’s still a full slate of 14 games on Sunday to be played.

This Sunday will get started a little earlier than usual with the London game between the Jaguars and Ravens. With things set to kick off at 3:30 am EST, make sure you set those alarms early and don’t forget to watch these 5 things this week;

#1 Quarterback Trevor Siemian versus the Bills defense

This will be the first real test for Siemian this season, on the road this week after what looked two cush home games. Siemian has been brilliant through two weeks completing 65 percent of his passing and throwing 6 touchdowns. He’s earned his way onto fantasy rosters, but is he worthy of a starting slot? The Bills defense is the 8th stingiest against opposing quarterbacks, so Siemian will be tested. Owners keep your eye on this one, if Siemian passes this test we may have to consider starting him on a weekly basis.

#2 Quarterback Cam Newton against the Saints

The Panthers offense does not yet look quite in sync, but they have managed to dispose of the Niners and Bills in consecutive weeks. Through 2 games the Panthers have only mustered two touchdowns. It makes you wonder how healthy is Cam. This week the Saints and their 32nd ranked defense will roll into town; Saints allow 32.5 points per game (worst in league) and over 500 yards of offense per game (worst in league). This should be a good measuring stick for how healthy Cam really is and how good this offense is. Right now everyone is steamrolling the Saints, if we don’t see the same from Cam and company, there may good cause to wonder, if not worry.

#3 Running back Leonard Fournette in London

Since you’re going to be up early anyway, pay attention to the Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette. After his strong out of the gate week one performance against the Texans, Fournette was quieter in week 2 against the Titans. Fournette is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but through two weeks he’s also averaging 22.5 touches per games. As long as he continues to see that kind of volume, owners can relax. He faces a tough test this week across the pond facing the Ravens stout run defense. Ravens have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and have not surrendered a rushing touchdown yet. The Jags passing offense was subpar last week to say the least, so they should be leaning heavily on ground game with Fournette; this should be fun to watch.

#4 Big Ben and the Steelers offense

In a nutshell, it’s time to rev the engine. The Steelers boast some of the most dynamic and explosive skill players on offense. It’s time for Big Ben and company to break out. Through two weeks we’ve seen some signs that this offense is getting ready to heat up; week one it was Antonio Brown, in week two Martavis Bryant turned it up and Le’Veon Bell logged 27 carries. Could this be the week all the pieces fall into place and the offense goes nuts? Fantasy owners certainly hope so. Even though this matchup is on the road, there’s a good chance it happens. The Bears defense ranks 24th in the league, allowing 26 points and 340 yards of offense per game. Let’s keep a watch on this one, it could get entertaining.

#5 The Raiders secondary against the Redskins passing offense

In other words, let’s see how quarterback Kirk Cousins performs this week. Cousins and the offense have now had several weeks to shake the rust, it’s time to show us who they are; relevant or bust. Let’s put it this way, the Rams quarterback Jared Goff had more fantasy points entering his week 3 matchup. Through two weeks Cousins is the No.24 fantasy QB and his numbers in both weeks have been quiet. The Raiders secondary is leaky and we’ve seen this. Through two weeks their numbers haven’t been all bad, but they are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and a 63.1 completion percentage. It’s go big or go home for the Redskins passing game.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 15th 2017

Friday Morning Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

As we enter the second week of the NFL there are always little things each week to keep an eye for and to watch. With week 2 quickly approaching, here are five things I’ll be looking for on Sunday;

#1 Quarterback Jameis Winston

If you been watching this season’s “Hard Knocks” you’ve been following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Jameis Winston. The 3rd year signal caller has been working hard and looks poised and ready to take the next step this season. The Bucs are at home this week facing the Bears and I would have to say the expectation is to see great things from Winston. This will be a favorable matchup against a secondary that allowed over 300 yards passing to Matt Ryan in week 1. I am watching Winston on Sunday.

#2 Vikings Offensive line (Sam Bradford)

In week one the headlines were all about quarterback Sam Bradford’s numbers and the passing game, but a big key to his success starts and ends with his offensive line. Bradford is a former number one draft pick (2010 draft), so someone believed the kid could play at a high level. I believe we saw some of that last Monday night. Bradford’s past struggles can easily be connected to playing on poor offenses and bad teams. The Vikings looked to be a complete team Monday night and as long as the line can protect Bradford and keep him healthy, we could see a lot more of repeat performances of week 1. I’ll be watching the Vikings line on Sunday against the Steelers.

#3 Adrian Peterson

The Saints running game last Monday looked like a train wreck. It seemed head coach Sean Payton was too much trying to juggle his three backs (Peterson, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara) and was struggling to figure out how to use them. You’ve read it, heard it, and I’ll say here too, Peterson looks out of place in this offense. Unless Payton commits to using Peterson more, 9 plays isn’t going to do anything for fantasy owners. Last week Payton definitely favored the rookie (Kamara), but Ingram stayed just as involved. I’ll be watching Peterson closely on Sunday against the Patriots.

#4 Jay Cutler & Devante Parker

This will be week 1 for the Dolphins and a passing combination that owners and myself will be very interested in seeing; Jay Cutler to Devante Parker. The Dolphins made an offseason scramble to pick up Cutler to replace their injured starter Ryan Tannehille. The move seemed sensible reuniting with (head coach) Adam Gase and to fantasy owners this offers a lot of upside for Parker ( a speedier version of Alshon Jeffery). There are a lot of questions with Cutler, but what he showed in the preseason left owners with some promise. This Sunday my focus will be on the duo and hopefully we see some of their big play potential.

#5 Kirk Cousins (& Redskins offense)

Lastly, the fifth thing for me to watch on Sunday will be Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousin and the offense. Coming out of the preseason, there were some discussions about their struggles and hints that it could take a while for the pieces to fall into place. This was quite evident in week one against the Eagles as Cousins completed only 57 percent of his passes, was sacked four times, and the offense only scored 17 points. What will be most interesting to watch is Kirk Cousins under pressure this week facing a tough front four that will feature the return of Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Cousins’ is going to have to make good decisions and get rid of the ball quickly, chemistry with his receivers will be at a premium and I will be watching.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID DAILY DIGEST

January 6th, 2017
Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

It’s Wildcard Weekend and it’s time to start getting jacked for the NFL Playoffs. It all starts tomorrow (Saturday) and even though the regular season has concluded, fantasy does not stop. Thanks to DSF sites and the NFL Playoff Challenge, there’s plenty of fantasy left to play.

With fantasy on the brain, let’s talk about this weekend’s games and what five players are my favorites to perform well.

My first pick comes from the early game on Saturday, the Raiders are on the road to take on the Texans. And without quarterback Derek Carr under center, the Silver and Black will need to rely heavily on running back Latavius Murray and the running game. The Texans have been very good versus the pass this season, but their defense is only ranked 12th against the run. Murray won’t find too many big holes on the ground, but he could see some extra work in the short passing game and have a big day just on volume alone.

The Texans will likely lean the same direction as the Raiders and try to ride their own ball carrier, my second pick; Lamar Miller. In their early matchup this season, Miller tore through the Raiders defense for 104 yards on 24 carries. If the Texans have their way on Saturday, Miller could see a similar workload with similar results.

In the early game on Sunday, the Dolphins-Steelers matchup offers plenty of fantasy frenzy and my third pick; wide receiver Eli Rogers. The Steelers 2nd year receiver has been coming on of late and in his last two games with Big Ben tossing the pigskin he collected 9 passes on 11 targets for 159 yards receiving and a touchdown. There’s no doubt the Dolphins secondary is going to be preoccupied and have it hands full with the Steelers other receiver Antonio Brown. This will only mean plenty of chances for Rogers and Big Ben to connect on a big one against a secondary that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver over the past four weeks.

In the weekend finale, my number four and five picks; wide receiver Davante Adams and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There’s no question Rodgers is going to be the popular play this weekend and rightfully so. He’s Mr. Snow, Mr. Lambeau, Mr. Fire on Ice and over the past two months he’s been on a roll; his last 8 starts, 298 yards passing/game, 20 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Drawing a first round home game, weather will not be a factor for Rodgers.

With Rodgers under center his receivers are going to be busy and in line for a big Sunday. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson will draw a lot of attention, opening up opportunities for wide receiver Davante Adams to step up. Adams finished the year with 75 receptions, 997 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. He’s ready to breakout this post-season.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega