FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 9 FIRE & ICE

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

FF Week 9: Fire & Ice Report

Through Eight weeks of NFL action there have been plenty of players up and down throughout the season, heading into this Sunday. Fantasy studs like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill continue to trend in the right direction and while others like Deebo Samuel are struggling to stay on the field. With less than 12 hours until NFL Sunday Week 9 kickoff, this is a short list of some of my notables that are either heating up or cooling down or (on) Fire or Ice (cold).

Fire

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (fantasy QB20) has been on a roll lately. Last week Burrow passed for nearly 300 yards, completing a career high 87.5% of his passes going 28 of 32, with three touchdowns. Over his last three games Burrow has averaged 261.7 yards passing, completing 76.3% of his 113 passes, and tossed 8 touchdowns. With a Sunday night matchup at home against the Bills, he's a fantasy lock for Week 9.

The Jets second year running back Breece Hall (fantasy RB15) looks to be firing on all pistons as he rolls into a Week 9 matchup on Monday night with the Chargers. Hall is coming off a solid Week 8 showing in the pass game, bringing in 6 passes for 76 yards and a 50-yard touchdown reception. Through his last three games Hall has been the fantasy RB4 averaging 77.7 yards rushing on 15+ carries per game. He’s also been terrific in the passing game adding 14 receptions for 147 yards receiving and three touchdowns (1 receive, 2 run) during this stretch. Hall is a must-start for Week 9.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards (fantasy RB30) has been hot of late, coming off a spectacular Week 8 performance with three rushing touchdowns. Edwards is averaging 61.7 yards rushing and 35.3 yards receiving over his last three games with most of the damage being fueled by his two most recent games. With a home tilt in Week 9 against a tough Seahawks defense he’s still a solid flex consideration for Week 9.

The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison (fantasy WR11) has been the guy in Minnesota the past several games in absence of Justin Jefferson. In his past two games he’s been heavily targeted (averaging 9 per) registering 14 receptions for  205 yards and three scores. He has actually scored a touchdown in four straight games averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.2 yards receiving, with 5 receiving touchdowns. He’s a must-start this week against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered 5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past two weeks.

Colts rookie wide receiver Josh Downs (fantasy WR37) has been trending in the right direction the past several weeks. For the past four straight weeks, he has seen no fewer than 6 targets per game. During his last three contests, Downs has caught 17 passes for 218 yards receiving and two touchdowns. After the success he has had in back-to-back games against the Browns and Saints, Downs faces a tough Carolina defense on Sunday, but he belongs in lineups.

The Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE12) has arrived. Kincaid is coming off consecutive games with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 65 yards receiving. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the NFL and with his teammate Dawson Know on the IR, Kincaid should remain one of the primary weapons of the passing game behind (Stefon) Diggs. With a Sunday night Matchup with the Bengals on the calendar, Vegas has this contest pegged as the highest scoring affair in Week 9, fantasy managers can turn, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid), loose.

The Browns tight end David Njoku (fantasy TE12) has been quietly warming up. Njoku is averaging double-digit fantasy points over his last three games and in his last two, he has seen his target share and productivity increase significantly. With 17 targets in his last two contests Njoku has 9 receptions for 131 yards receiving and a score. The Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson back under center on Sunday and a home matchup with the Cardinals make Njoku a serviceable TE-1 this week. The Cardinals are allowing more than 10 fantasy points (ppr format) to TE-1 this season.

Ice

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB16) started out the season hot, but he has cooled off quite a bit over the past several weeks. In his past three starts, Stroud is only completing 55.2% of his passes and has thrown only three touchdowns.  He has a home matchup with the Buccaneers this week and although Tampa has struggled lately allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the past four weeks, Stroud is a sit this week in seasonal leagues, but remains a consideration in DFS.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones (fantasy RB30) has been on ice since returning from injury in Week 4. After missing Week 5, he returned in Week 7 following the team’s bye, but he’s basically been on a pitch count the past couple of weeks, splitting snaps with AJ Dillon, and has not done much. In his last two games he’s averaging 11 touches for 52.5 yards per game. Until Jones is healthy, he’s best left on your bench.

The Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (fantasy WR95) & Skyy Moore (fantasy WR88) entered the 23 season with much promise being a part of an offense anchored by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In their last three games, Toney has 5 catches (8 targets) for 26 yards and a score, while Moore has totaled 5 receptions (10 targets) for 45 yards. Through 8 weeks this season, neither has done much of anything to even warrant a roster spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 4 FF SITS

September 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 4

Sit’Ems

My week 4 Sits for Sunday and Monday.

I believe every fantasy football owner greatly looks forward to NFL Sunday. There is so much promise and possibility as the day begins, but of course once the games kick off and the reality of the action starts to set in, it’s not always rainbows and pots of gold. On some Sundays, we experience heavy rains and lots of dark clouds.

RB-Gus Edwards (Ravens)

As I look ahead to this Sunday, these are just some of my thoughts for the week 4 matchups, where if you have a viable replacement option, you might want to look to your bench for help. I never enjoy predicting doom for anyone and certainly don’t hope anyone has a bad day. But if you are facing the Cleveland Browns defense in week 4, a bad day is what you can likely expect.

The Browns defense has been ridiculously good and stingy this season. They are allowing just 52 yards rushing per game with a 2.8 yards per carry average (both 2nd best in the league). In three games the Dawg Pound D has allowed less than 2 first downs rushing per game through the first three weeks of the season.

Last week the Browns defense held the Titans running back Derrick Henry to just 20 yards rushing on 11 carries and that followed a week 2 outing where the defense limited Steelers running back Najee Harris to just 43 yards.

The Ravens offense is going to face all kinds of problems moving the ball on the ground against this stout Browns defense. It’s likely a lot of their success will come from the legs of Lamar Jackson, limiting opportunities for Edwards. Edwards is averaging a little more than 10 carries per game the last two weeks. This is just not enough workload to trust looking ahead to Sunday. Sit Edwards.

RB-Dalvin Cook  (Jets)

The Jets offense in general has been a struggle this season. With the loss of quarterback Aaron Rodgers in week one, Zach Wilson just hasn’t stepped up to the plate. The team was able to salvage a week one win, primarily due to the 4 turnovers committed by the Bills offense. Since then the Jets rushing offense has been anemic. 

In week 2 against the Cowboys, the Jets totaled just 24 yards rushing on 10 carries from the backfield and the following week against the Patriots they didn’t fare much better, gaining 37 yards on 21 carries. With such low output from the running game, Cook’s contributions have reflected the same.

We’ve seen Cook’s workload fall from 13 carries in week one, to 4 in week two and 8 last week. His rushing totals haven’t been any better, 33, 7, and 18. With just 25 carries this season Cook is averaging a meager 2.3 yard per carry. Cook is still competing for touches with running back Breece Hall, but as the former gets healthy, Cooks’ window could be closing.

The Jets offense is bad and this week a Sunday night matchup with the Chiefs doesn’t bring good news. Through three games the Jets offense is averaging 22 run plays per game to 28 pass. On the surface there just doesn’t seem to be enough workload available and with his current trend Cook looks like a bad bet. Sit Cook.

TE-David Njoku (Browns)

The Browns tight end has popped up on the injury report this week and he is listed as questionable, but nonetheless I don’t like this week 4 matchup for Njoku. Even if he suits up, he could be limited, but that might not even matter.

Only the Browns defense has been better versus opposing tight ends this season, than the Ravens D, allowing the fewest fantasy points. For three weeks the Ravens defense has done a great job to shut down the position, allowing 8 receptions for 45 yards. 

Through the Brown’s first three games, Njoku is averaging just 3.3 receptions, 3.6 targets, and 30.6 receiving yards per game. He’s just not seeing enough shares or production in the passing game to be a viable option at the time. With a bad matchup on the docket, keep Njoku on your bench. Sit Njoku.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega