FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR SUNDAY

November 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

It’s Sunday morning, we have early morning football from Germany on the tube and NFL Sunday Week 9 is underway. With the main slate set to kickoff in just about 2 hours, I have a few questions as I look over the matchups today. 

Who’s going to have a big game, will anyone shock the world, and are we in for some high scoring affairs. Some of these are just general questions concerning today, but as I take a closer look at Week 9 here are the 10 questions.

1. Can Action Jackson serve up some Home Cooking?

Lamar Jackson is having a very good 23 campaign and with a home tilt today against the Seahawks he’ll look to continue. In his last two home starts he has 696 yards of offense and six touchdowns. Today could be big numbers.

2. Will the return of Watson Spark the Browns?

The Browns quarterback makes his return today after missing 3 of the team’s last four games. While his return should be a boost to the offense, just as important running back Jerome Ford appears ready to lead the backfield today. The Browns should fare well on the ground today against the Cardinals.

3. Is it Time for Stroud to Shine?

The Texans rookie signal caller has been relatively quiet the past several weeks. After throwing 7 touchdowns in his first 5 games averaging 292 yards passing, he has just two scoring throws and 169.5 yards passing per game. A home matchup with a leaky Tampa Bay secondary could be the fix needed, dial up some Texans receivers today.

4. Can Derek Carr Stay Hot?

The Saints passer has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight contests. He has the Bears 30th ranked pass defense on the slate today and a good chance to make it four. The Bears have allowed over 300 yards passing three times this season and gave up 298 in Week 8.

5. Can a Change at QB Spark some Offense?

The Falcons will play host today to the Vikings and will be doing so with a change at quarterback. Taylor Heinicke will take over the offense today for Atlanta in hope of sparking more offense through the air. In relief last week Heinicke stepped in and completed 12 of 21 with a touchdown. With no Drake London, today could be the Kyle Pitts, Van Jefferson, and Bijan Robinson show.

6. Is it Time to Set Jones Free (again)?

There were calls a couple of seasons ago to set Aaron Jones free. This season the Packers running back has been hampered by a lingering hamstring injury, but finally there may be a ray of hope. Per the Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur, Jones has looked good in practice this week and the team could be ready to cut him loose. If Jones is turned loose, he’ll have a chance to be an RB-1 today. 

7. Who will catch passes for the Patriots today?

The Patriots are depleted at the receiver position today with Kendrick Bourne placed on IR earlier this week and DeVante Parker ruled out. Could today be JuJu Smith-Schuster time? JuJu has only recorded 15 catches this season, including one last week for 3 yards. This is a tough situation fantasy managers may want to avoid.

8. Is it Taylor’s Time?

The Colts running back Zack Moss has continued to be a big part of the team's running game, but for two straight weeks now Jonathan Taylor has led the team in Rushing. Last week was Taylor’s best rushing output, with 95 yards on 12 carries and with a Week 9 matchup against a Panthers 24th ranked run defense, Taylor could be poised for a big day. Dial up some JT today. 

9. Will Big Changes in Vegas Pay Fantasy Dividends?

The Raiders decided to clean house after their Monday night loss to the Lions. The Raiders offense looked bad and now with the firings of HC Josh McDaniels and the GM, the team announced a change at quarterback. With rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell under center, is there hope for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to be productive? The Raiders offense looked bad on Monday night, so they really can’t get any worse, I am willing to roll the dice with a home matchup with the Giants.

10. Can Joe Cool Chill the Bills?

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been playing well the past several weeks and the offense could be on the verge of hitting on all pistons. With Ja’Marr Chase (fantasy WR5) playing great and Tee Higgins getting healthier, Burrow may be just getting started. The Bills secondary and defense has allowed the 6th most passing yards over the past 4 weeks, expect Joe and company to push those numbers higher. Dial up your Big Cats today.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEKLY AWARDS (WEEK 7)

October 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Weekly Awards

The Weekly Honors for some of the outstanding performances during Week 7.

AFC Offensive Player of the Week

Lamar Jackson (Ravens-QB)

*21 of 27 passing

*77.8% completions

*357 yards passing

*4 touchdowns (3 pass, 1 run)

*155.79 passer rating

*9 rush attempts

*36 rushing yards

AFC Defensive Player of the Week

Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars-LB)

*9 solo tackles

*5 assists

*2 pass defense

*1 interception

*1 defensive touchdown

NFC Offensive Player of the Week

D'Onta Foreman (Bears-RB)

*16 carries

*89 yards rushing

*5.6 yards per carry

*2 rushing touchdowns

*5 targets

*3 receptions

*31 yards receiving

*1 receiving touchdown

NFC Defensive Player of the Week

Jaylon Johnson (Bears-DB)

*2 solo tackles

*1 assist

*2 pass defense

*2 interceptions

*1 defensive touchdown

The future NFL stars.

Offensive Rookie of the Week

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions-RB)

*11 carries

*68 yards rushing

*6.2 yards per carry

*1 rushing touchdowns

*10 targets

*9 receptions

*58 yards receiving

Defensive Rookie of the Week

Deonte Banks (Giants-DB)

*5 solo tackles

*2 assists

*1 pass defense

*1 interception

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 4 FF SITS

September 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 4

Sit’Ems

My week 4 Sits for Sunday and Monday.

I believe every fantasy football owner greatly looks forward to NFL Sunday. There is so much promise and possibility as the day begins, but of course once the games kick off and the reality of the action starts to set in, it’s not always rainbows and pots of gold. On some Sundays, we experience heavy rains and lots of dark clouds.

RB-Gus Edwards (Ravens)

As I look ahead to this Sunday, these are just some of my thoughts for the week 4 matchups, where if you have a viable replacement option, you might want to look to your bench for help. I never enjoy predicting doom for anyone and certainly don’t hope anyone has a bad day. But if you are facing the Cleveland Browns defense in week 4, a bad day is what you can likely expect.

The Browns defense has been ridiculously good and stingy this season. They are allowing just 52 yards rushing per game with a 2.8 yards per carry average (both 2nd best in the league). In three games the Dawg Pound D has allowed less than 2 first downs rushing per game through the first three weeks of the season.

Last week the Browns defense held the Titans running back Derrick Henry to just 20 yards rushing on 11 carries and that followed a week 2 outing where the defense limited Steelers running back Najee Harris to just 43 yards.

The Ravens offense is going to face all kinds of problems moving the ball on the ground against this stout Browns defense. It’s likely a lot of their success will come from the legs of Lamar Jackson, limiting opportunities for Edwards. Edwards is averaging a little more than 10 carries per game the last two weeks. This is just not enough workload to trust looking ahead to Sunday. Sit Edwards.

RB-Dalvin Cook  (Jets)

The Jets offense in general has been a struggle this season. With the loss of quarterback Aaron Rodgers in week one, Zach Wilson just hasn’t stepped up to the plate. The team was able to salvage a week one win, primarily due to the 4 turnovers committed by the Bills offense. Since then the Jets rushing offense has been anemic. 

In week 2 against the Cowboys, the Jets totaled just 24 yards rushing on 10 carries from the backfield and the following week against the Patriots they didn’t fare much better, gaining 37 yards on 21 carries. With such low output from the running game, Cook’s contributions have reflected the same.

We’ve seen Cook’s workload fall from 13 carries in week one, to 4 in week two and 8 last week. His rushing totals haven’t been any better, 33, 7, and 18. With just 25 carries this season Cook is averaging a meager 2.3 yard per carry. Cook is still competing for touches with running back Breece Hall, but as the former gets healthy, Cooks’ window could be closing.

The Jets offense is bad and this week a Sunday night matchup with the Chiefs doesn’t bring good news. Through three games the Jets offense is averaging 22 run plays per game to 28 pass. On the surface there just doesn’t seem to be enough workload available and with his current trend Cook looks like a bad bet. Sit Cook.

TE-David Njoku (Browns)

The Browns tight end has popped up on the injury report this week and he is listed as questionable, but nonetheless I don’t like this week 4 matchup for Njoku. Even if he suits up, he could be limited, but that might not even matter.

Only the Browns defense has been better versus opposing tight ends this season, than the Ravens D, allowing the fewest fantasy points. For three weeks the Ravens defense has done a great job to shut down the position, allowing 8 receptions for 45 yards. 

Through the Brown’s first three games, Njoku is averaging just 3.3 receptions, 3.6 targets, and 30.6 receiving yards per game. He’s just not seeing enough shares or production in the passing game to be a viable option at the time. With a bad matchup on the docket, keep Njoku on your bench. Sit Njoku.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Late Night Edition
September 18th, 2019

Wednesday Watercooler Chat

It’s Wednesday and time to gather round the old watercooler to talk some fantasy football. No worries if you don’t have a watercooler, the breakroom snack machine or out back for a quick smoke are just as appropriate.

It’s still a small sample size, but after two weeks there are a few trends we are seeing that are unavoidable, like the arrival of Lamar, and even compelling to watch, like the greatness of Mahomes, and in some cases believe, Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing. 

Here’s a list of some quick takes you can buy, sell, take to the bank, or throw away (it’s all good);

Quick Takes:

• I am a believer in Lamar Jackson and sold on his fantasy prowess.
• Patrick Mahomes is a magician in or out of the pocket and “It’s Showtime!”
• Dalvin Cook is the real deal and Top 5 fantasy play for 2019, JMO.
• Is Mark Andrew better than Kelce; IDK, but I’ll take him!
• Odell Beckham Jr who? 89 yards later, that’s who!
• Carlos Hyde is no Jekyll, but apparently he can run!
• Has Aaron Jones been freed, because he ran free on Sunday.
• The yards are not coming easy, but Lev Bell is still getting the work.
• After his week 2 bounce back, in Godwin I am trusting.

It’s two weeks in the books and these are a couple of my FF notes to share; 

2 Studs Rising
Ravens, WR-Marquise Brown; Hollywood Brown is no secret by now and in week two the Cardinals defense learned his name up close and persona. Brown dropped 8 catches for 86 yards on 13 targets. If he continues to see this type of usage, he’s going to have some big Sundays!

Buccaneers, WR-Chris Godwin; after posting a modest week 1 performance that did include a score, Godwin followed up with a huge Week 2 showing. On Thursday night Godwin lit up the Panthers with 8 catches for 121 yards receiving and a score. With the Giants defense next up, it could be more of the same for fantasy owner.

2 Duds falling fast
Titans, WR-Corey Davis; through two weeks the Titans wideout has been missing in action. Through two games, PPR scoring, Davis currently ranks as the 94th fantasy receiver, according to Fantasy Data.

Colts, RB-Nyheim Hines; with the return of the Mack in Indy, Hines has become a forgotten name in fantasy. In two games Hines has only seen 31 snaps (unofficial) to Marlon Macks 97. Hines currently ranks as the 60th fantasy running back through two weeks.

2 Weekly Waiver Wire picks
Chiefs, WR-Demarcus Robinson; if you are watching what’s happening in Kansas City thus far this season, you just want a piece and any piece of this offense. Coming off a huge week 2 performance, 6 catches for 172 yards receiving and two scores on six targets, Robinson looks to be a nice waiver wire pick-up for week 3 (if available).

49ers, RB-Raheem Mostert; the Niners running back is another nice waiver wire grab, if available. Last season he got a little run in Frisco and looked pretty good. With Tevin Coleman shelved for a bit, Mostert is getting some run again and looks good. His week two strong showing, 83 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards and a score has him currently ranked as the 16th fantasy running back (PPR scoring), according to Fantasy Data.

2 Players to Watch (sleepers)
Broncos, RB-Royce Freeman; the Broncos are currently employing a full-time 50/50 share with Freeman and Lindsay and thus far, Freeman has been the more productive. While I expect Lindsay’s numbers to improve as the Broncos offense gets better, I don’t see Freeman’s usage suffering. He’s worth stashing and rostering in all formats.

Chiefs, RB-Darwin Thompson; with the Chiefs high octane offense firing on all pistons, the current backfield situation could open the door for opportunity for the rookie running back. Again, you want any piece of this offense that you can get, but Thompson could soon become a focal point in the run game and become a must-start.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition
September 15th, 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 2 Matchups

The Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, threw 5 touchdowns in week 1. This week he is facing a Giants pass defense that allowed 4 passing touchdowns and 7 plays of 20+ yards (tied for most in the league) with zero sacks and ranks last in the NFL. I’m starting Lamar, especially in DFS.

The Seahawks signal caller, Russell Wilson is on the road this week against a Steelers pass defense that allowed 366 net yards of passing, recording just one sack while giving up three passing touchdowns and 7 plays of 20+ yards (tied for most allowed in the NFL). Start Wilson.

Kerryon Johnson played 50 snaps in Week one and recorded 18 touches totaling 62 yards of offense. In week 2 the Lions running back will get plenty of run against a Chargers run defense that currently ranks 31st in the league, allowing over 200 yards on the ground in week 1. Kerryon should be in lineups today.

A week 2 matchup against a Colts defense that allowed 100 yards receiving and two touchdowns to opposing running backs, could be good news for the Titans Dion Lewis. He could be in the flex conversation today, but proceed with caution. I am probably sitting Lewis; need to see more production.

The Bills receiver John Brown could be looking at another solid fantasy week facing a Giants secondary that allows the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. In week one, the Giants allowed 18 receptions off 22 targets for 341 yards. I have Brown in my lineups as a flex.

Week 2 could be a bounce back week for the Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. This Sunday he gets a Seahawks secondary that surrendered 6 pass plays of 20+ yards and 276 yards to opposing receivers in week 1. Start Juju, he gets back on track in Week 2.

The Redskins tight end Vernon Davis, could follow up his strong week 1 performance with another solid outing in week 2 against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in week 1, including 12 receptions for 124 yards receiving. Davis is a streaming option for me this week.

A sleeper play that the fantasy world is quickly waking up to, is the Raiders tight end Darren Waller. Playing on Monday, Waller was able to showcase some of his upside and in week 2, a showdown with the Chiefs could continue the trend. The Chiefs defense held the Jaguars tight ends in check in week 1, but did allow 8 receptions on 9 targets. Waller is a great DFS play and viable option in Season-long leagues.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2: Fantasy Five

Studs: 
I was able to watch a lot of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in week one and I have to say one word, impressive. We knew Jackson was a talented runner, but he must have put in work this offseason, because in week one he became a talented passer too. Let’s just say, I’m buying what I am seeing or saw in week one. His matchup this week at home against the Cardinals who allowed 385 yards passing to Matthew Stafford and the Lions, looks savory. 

In week one, Jackson hit on a number of downfield throws for big plays, but he also found his trusty tight end Mark Andrews on 8 of 8 throws for 108 yards and a score. The Cardinals allowed the Lions tight end TJ Hockenson to run roughshod in week one, so Andrews could see similar success.

Duds:
There are just too many viable wide receivers in the Rams passing attack, which unfortunately means if you play tight end, you’ll spend most of your Sundays blocking. In week one the Rams tight ends combined were out-targeted by the wideouts, 31-6. Even with his touchdown reception in week one, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee only had 20 yards receiving on 4 receptions; heavily touchdown dependent for fantasy relevance. I am fading all Rams tight ends, until further notice.

While I actually like the Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay, it’s quite evident he and fellow running back Royce Freeman are in a full-blown time-share. Lindsay played in 33 snaps, while Freeman was on the field for 29. Lindsay also out-touched Freeman, 17-11, but only out-produced 66-61 yards of offense. In basically a 50/50 share, and a tough matchup against a stout Bears' defense, there just may not be enough opportunity for Lindsay to much.

Booms:
Playing on the national spotlight on Sunday night, I am expecting a big bounce back game for the home team Falcons. Calvin Ridley was relatively quiet, but startable in week one with 4 catches for 64 yards and a score (Fantasy WR27 for the week, PPR scoring). In a potential shootout, MGM Mirage has the over/under at 52.5 points, I am expecting a big game from the speedy wideout. The Eagles secondary was torched in week one by the Redskins passing game, allowing 4 plays of 20 yards or more, including two of 40+ yards. This sounds like a matchup right up Ridley’s alley.

In week one the Bills receiver John Brown was a solid WR1 fantasy play (PPR scoring), recording 7 catches for 123 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 targets. This week the Bills take on the Giants and I am doubling down and “Smokey” John Brown. The Giants defense struggled mightily against the pass in week one and even if Brown doesn’t see another 10 targets, he should see anywhere from 6-8 which will be enough to do WR1 damage for a second week.

Busts:
In week one, the Bills backfield consisted of running backs Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon, and (rookie) Devin Singletary. The offense ran a total of 69 plays and the breakdown in the backfield was as follows; Yeldon-2, Gore-19, and Singletary-48. It’s only a matter of time before Singletary dominates the touches too. Gore, 11 carries for 20 yards rushing in week one is seeing his fantasy value plummet. He can be dropped.

The Titans running back Dion Lewis did see action on 26 of 61 plays in week one, but his poor production (13 yards of offense) and limited opportunity (6 touches) will have owners questioning whether he’s worth holding. With the Titans other running back Derrick Henry seeing 20 touches in week one, this hardly looks like a time-share split. Although, Lewis’ 42% snap percentage indicates some involvement, but keep him on your bench for now, even in PPR.

Sleepers:
With the Niners running back Tevin Coleman shelved for the next couple of weeks, I see Raheem Mostert as a potential week 2 sleeper. The talk has been Matt Breida, but Mostert was the more effective running in week one. When given the opportunity, Mostert has showed some flash. Week 2, the Niners will need their running game and Mostert could be in line for a sizeable workshare.

The Steelers tight Vance McDonald was basically invisible in week one, finally appearing in the final minute of the team’s week one contest against the Patriots. The Steelers ran a lot of 4 receiver sets in the contest (with little success) and there were times Big Ben (Roethlisberger) did look for McDonald but did not have the time to make the throw. The good news, McDonald was the only targeted tight end for the Steelers, so when he faces a Seahawks defense this Sunday, good things could happen. In week one the Seahawks secondary saw Bengals tight ends register 9 catches for 93 yards on 10 targets. I like McDonald to bounce back nicely in week 2.

I watched the Monday night game between the Broncos and Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr looked very sharped. This is his second year under head coach John Gruden and it looks like Carr has many huge strides. Carr was accurate, precise, and showed great poise against a Broncos defense that showed little resistance. I don’t expect to see the Chiefs defense to show much more, but rather I expect like Vegas (MGM Mirage over/under is 53.5 points) a shootout. Carr could be a nice DFS play this week.

Recap Week 1
(Stud) I whiffed big-time with my Stud selection as the Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams turned out to be a huge bust in Week one. Williams exited the season opener early with a knee injury, finishing with just 2 catches for 29 yards receiving on three targets. His appearance was disappointing and altogether a bust one he suffered the injury. As of today he’s listed as a Game-time decision for Sunday at the Lions.

(Dud) The Falcons signal caller, Matt Ryan finished the week as the number 15 fantasy quarterback, so our dud take was spot on. Ryan had a rough going all game long against the Vikings defense throwing 2 interceptions early. Once the game was decided well into the 4th quarter, Ryan was able to salvage his fantasy status with a late score. Matty should definitely see better numbers this Sunday with a home matchup in Week 2.

(Boom) My pick of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson did not work out too well. Johnson did play 50 snaps in week one, which is a very good thing, and did touch the ball 18 times, but he only managed 62 total yards without a score. It was not the start fantasy owners were expecting, but box score results aside, there were some positives that indicate he’ll bounce back. With a favorable week 2 matchup, Johnson owners could be booming soon.

(Bust) For a while it looked like the Browns tight end David Njoku was going to held in check for the day, but a late 3rd quarter score salvaged his day for fantasy owners. I had him as a bust last week, but his final numbers had as the TE8 in fantasy for week one. Fantasy owners still need to take caution with Njoku, his 4 catches for 37 yards receiving (in week one) will keep you nervous.

(Sleeper) I predicted a nice game for the Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. His delivery wasn’t as good as expected. Although his numbers weren’t off the charts, a rushing touchdown paired with a scoring throw kept him viable for some fantasy owners in deeper and two-quarterback leagues. His 98 passing yards were a bit concerning, but I did watch the game and the offense just wasn’t asked to do much in the second half. I’d expect more in week 2.

My Overall Grade=D-

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega