FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY WATERCOOLER

December 9th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

The Wednesday  Saturday Watercooler

Week 14 Free Agency

With less than 15 hours until NFL Sunday week 14 kickoff, there’s still plenty of time to make some moves to improve your lineup and secure that playoff spot. These are some of my Week 14 favorites widely available in many leagues.

RB, Keaton Mitchell (Ravens) The rookie runner emerged in weeks 9 and 10 as a flex play with consecutive weeks scoring a touchdown. He’s been quiet since, but following a Week 12  performance where he out-snapped starter Gus Edwards 33 to 19 and out gained him 89 yards to 37, he is trending in the right direction. For those desperate for help in the backfield Mitchell is only owned in 34.3% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 26.1% in NFL.

WR, Romeo Doubs (Packers) The Packers wideout is only owned in 39.2% of NFL fantasy leagues and 41.0% of ESPN leagues. Over his past four games played Doubs has been scoring in the mid WR-3 range, with 15 receptions on 20 targets for 193 yards receiving and two scores. With Christian Watson ruled out and a great Monday night matchup against the Giants (5th worst against WR), he should be added.

WR, Noah Brown (Texans) Before his return to action last week, in his last two games Brown had collected 13 catches for 325 yards receiving and a score. He returned last week, but was very quiet. With the loss of rookie receiver Tank Dell, Brown will have an opportunity to make an impact. Brown is only owned in 26.4% of NFL fantasy leagues and 42.7 of ESPN, and although it will be a tough matchup in Week 14 against the Jets, he’ll still offer flex appeal.

WR, Zay Jones (Jaguars) If he’s healthy, with the absence of wide receiver Christian Kirk, the stage is set for a big opportunity for Zay Jones to fill in and play big. Jones is only owned in 9.3% of NFL fantasy leagues and 25.8 of ESPN, without an injury designation this Sunday, he’s a low end flex with a tough matchup against the Browns.

TE, Isaiah Likely (Ravens) The Ravens young tight end has yet to turn any heads, but at the one position that is very shallow in fantasy, Likely has value. Only owned in 39.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 15.3 in NFL, Likely is coming off  a 4-catch, 40 yards receiving (on 6 targets) performance in Week 12 (fantasy TE18) and facing the 8th worst defense versus fantasy tight ends. A part of a heavy run offense may limit opportunities, but he still has a chance to be a fringe TE1 for Week 14.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY WATERCOOLER

November 18th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

The Wednesday  Saturday Watercooler

Still working our way through the NFL byes with four teams out (Atlanta, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and New England), just some helpful numbers for the DFS gamers and the seasonal players setting their lineups for Week 11.

Here are the target leaders through 10 weeks.

WR-Top 10 Targets

1. Stefon Diggs - 102

2. Ja’Marr Chase - 99

3. Michael Pittman Jr - 98

4. Davante Adams - 98

5. Tyreek Hill - 97

6. Keenan Allen - 97

7. Puk Nacua - 96

8. Garrett Wilson - 95

9. Chris Olave - 94

10.AJ Brown - 92

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) There has not been a hotter receiver over the past three weeks than CeeDee Lamb. He has been heavily targeted (44 targets) registering 34 receptions for 500 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Consider Lamb and Top-10 candidate this week against the Panthers.

Amon-Ra St.Brown (Lions) The Lions receiver has been one of the most consistent pass catchers this season. Over his last three games St.Brown has been targeted 37 times, hauling in 27 passes, for 366 yards and a score. He’s locked in as a WR-1 this week against the Bears.

TE-Top 10 Targets

1. TJ Hockenson - 95

2. Travis Kelce - 72

3. Evan Engram - 68

4. Sam LaPorta - 64

5. Mark Andrews - 59

6. Kyle Pitts - 58

7. Cole Kmet - 57

8. Dalton Schultz - 56

9. David Njoku - 54

10.Dallas Goedert - 52

Dalton Schultz (Texans) Over his last two games the Texans tight end has been highly productive and efficient. Schultz has been targeted 17 times, turning in 14 receptions, for 201 yards receiving and a score. He ranks as a mid-to-low TE-1 in Week 11, even versus a Cardinals defense that has pretty good versus opposing tight ends.

RB-Top 10 Targets

1. Alvin Kamara - 56

2. Christian McCaffrey - 47

3. Josh Jacobs - 45

4. Rhamondre Stevenson - 45

5. Bijan Robinson - 43

6. Travis Etienne Jr - 39

7. Jaylen Warren - 39

8. Jamyr Gibbs - 38

9. Rachaad White - 37

10.Alexander Mattison - 36

Austin Ekeler (Chargers) Since returning to action in Week 6, it seems every week Ekeler is getting healthier and more productive. Over his last three games Ekeler is averaging 20.3 touches per game resulting in 143 yards rushing, 13 receptions (on 22 targets), 165 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns. With an excellent Week 11 matchup with the Packers, Ekeler is a Top-10 lock.

RB-Top 10 Touches

1. Josh Jacobs - 216

2. Christian McCaffrey -191

3. Travis Etienne Jr - 189

4. Derrick Henry - 167

5. Rachaad White - 167

6. D’Andre Swift - 165

7. Tony Pollard - 164

8. Joe Mixon - 163

9. Saquon Barkley - 162

10.Kenneth Walker III - 161

Saquon Barkley (Giants) Despite the struggling Giants offense, Barkley continues to see just enough volume to stay relevant. Barkley is averaging 24 touches over his last three games, resulting in 302 total yards with no touchdowns. As long as the offense struggles Barkley will linger in the low RB-2/flex range.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Late Night Edition
September 18th, 2019

Wednesday Watercooler Chat

It’s Wednesday and time to gather round the old watercooler to talk some fantasy football. No worries if you don’t have a watercooler, the breakroom snack machine or out back for a quick smoke are just as appropriate.

It’s still a small sample size, but after two weeks there are a few trends we are seeing that are unavoidable, like the arrival of Lamar, and even compelling to watch, like the greatness of Mahomes, and in some cases believe, Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing. 

Here’s a list of some quick takes you can buy, sell, take to the bank, or throw away (it’s all good);

Quick Takes:

• I am a believer in Lamar Jackson and sold on his fantasy prowess.
• Patrick Mahomes is a magician in or out of the pocket and “It’s Showtime!”
• Dalvin Cook is the real deal and Top 5 fantasy play for 2019, JMO.
• Is Mark Andrew better than Kelce; IDK, but I’ll take him!
• Odell Beckham Jr who? 89 yards later, that’s who!
• Carlos Hyde is no Jekyll, but apparently he can run!
• Has Aaron Jones been freed, because he ran free on Sunday.
• The yards are not coming easy, but Lev Bell is still getting the work.
• After his week 2 bounce back, in Godwin I am trusting.

It’s two weeks in the books and these are a couple of my FF notes to share; 

2 Studs Rising
Ravens, WR-Marquise Brown; Hollywood Brown is no secret by now and in week two the Cardinals defense learned his name up close and persona. Brown dropped 8 catches for 86 yards on 13 targets. If he continues to see this type of usage, he’s going to have some big Sundays!

Buccaneers, WR-Chris Godwin; after posting a modest week 1 performance that did include a score, Godwin followed up with a huge Week 2 showing. On Thursday night Godwin lit up the Panthers with 8 catches for 121 yards receiving and a score. With the Giants defense next up, it could be more of the same for fantasy owner.

2 Duds falling fast
Titans, WR-Corey Davis; through two weeks the Titans wideout has been missing in action. Through two games, PPR scoring, Davis currently ranks as the 94th fantasy receiver, according to Fantasy Data.

Colts, RB-Nyheim Hines; with the return of the Mack in Indy, Hines has become a forgotten name in fantasy. In two games Hines has only seen 31 snaps (unofficial) to Marlon Macks 97. Hines currently ranks as the 60th fantasy running back through two weeks.

2 Weekly Waiver Wire picks
Chiefs, WR-Demarcus Robinson; if you are watching what’s happening in Kansas City thus far this season, you just want a piece and any piece of this offense. Coming off a huge week 2 performance, 6 catches for 172 yards receiving and two scores on six targets, Robinson looks to be a nice waiver wire pick-up for week 3 (if available).

49ers, RB-Raheem Mostert; the Niners running back is another nice waiver wire grab, if available. Last season he got a little run in Frisco and looked pretty good. With Tevin Coleman shelved for a bit, Mostert is getting some run again and looks good. His week two strong showing, 83 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards and a score has him currently ranked as the 16th fantasy running back (PPR scoring), according to Fantasy Data.

2 Players to Watch (sleepers)
Broncos, RB-Royce Freeman; the Broncos are currently employing a full-time 50/50 share with Freeman and Lindsay and thus far, Freeman has been the more productive. While I expect Lindsay’s numbers to improve as the Broncos offense gets better, I don’t see Freeman’s usage suffering. He’s worth stashing and rostering in all formats.

Chiefs, RB-Darwin Thompson; with the Chiefs high octane offense firing on all pistons, the current backfield situation could open the door for opportunity for the rookie running back. Again, you want any piece of this offense that you can get, but Thompson could soon become a focal point in the run game and become a must-start.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition
November 7th, 2012

  

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

Week 10 Waiver Wire Wonders

We are 9 weeks in and for the most part fantasy owners have seen about all there is to see from all teams and all fantasy players. For those owners still looking for aid and relief, if you keep looking hard, you can still find a few late bloomers and hidden gems.

With week 10 set to begin on Thursday, here are few last minute waiver wire warriors that can offer some help this Sunday…

The Steelers boast a couple of speedy and talented receivers in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, but with Brown down for the moment, fantasy owners can turn to Emmanuel Sanders. The Steelers number three wide out is very capable of stepping into the starting lineup and producing right away. Sanders is athletic, quick and has great hands; snatch him up fast.

Another relief player that can be pulled off many waiver wires this week is the Falcons running back Jacquizz Rodgers. The Falcons backup has not had much of an expanded role, but gradually over the past couple of weeks he has seen his role and touches increase. Rodgers does not offer a lot of value, but with the Saints up next even with few touches he has a chance of making some big plays. Fantasy owners hurting at the running back position may be able to find some help from the Dirty Bird.

A third glimmer of hope for owners this week needing help could come in the form of Chargers wide receiver Danario Alexander. The newly acquired receiver was an immediate contributor last week in the team’s week 9 win over the Chiefs. Alexander hauled in three passes for 61 yards, not a lot to get excited about, but an indicator that he can contribute right away. This week he has a great matchup against the Buccaneers (ranked last in the league against the pass) and should see plenty of opportunities to pay off in your lineup on Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition
October 31st, 2012  

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

Waiver Wire Wanderers

We are moving deeper into the fantasy season and there’s no time to waste or let up. The free agent pool is thinning more and more every week, but even when it is there are still a few gems to be found.

After eight weeks of action and still a number of weeks left to manage through the byes, fantasy owners can’t afford to let any hidden jewels slip through the cracks. Last Sunday there were quite a few notable diamonds in the rough worth a take this week, at least as a flex option.

Leading the short list is the Lions wide receiver Titus Young. Injuries have moved Young up the depth chart and with Matt Stafford steadily finding his groove Young is going to see more action going forward. Young has 17 targets in his last two games and he’s made the most of it with 15 receptions.

Like Young, Jaguars wide receivers Cecil Shorts is getting more time in a prominent role due to injuries and he is cashing in. Shorts has seen 22 targets in the last two weeks and he’s been golden with 12 receptions, 195 yards receiving and a score. As a flex his numbers are solid, but he’s getting better every week, so there’s upside.

The Seahawks passing game has been relatively non-existent this season, but one of the bright spots has been the recent emergence of Sidney Rice; a forgotten man. Rice has been quiet much of the season, but last Sunday he had his best game with 6 grabs for 55 yards and touchdown. These numbers won’t burn down the house, but Rice has great ability and offers tremendous upside as the quarterback play in Seattle gets better. He’s nothing more than a consideration as a flex option, but if you can hold him for a while he could pay off in the long run.

One ground gainers that could be still hanging around this week is the Steelers running back Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer has been the best runner for the Steelers this season and now that he’s had his chance he is shinning. Dwyer has rushed for over 100 yards the past two weeks as the starter. He could see his carries drop some with the backfield getting healthy, but he’s too good and playing too well to take a back seat. Grab him if you can.


Don’t Go Sleeping

If you have the room on your roster or if you play in a deeper league a couple of backs that are definitely worth stashing are the Falcons running back Jacquizz Rodgers and the Broncos rookie running back Ronnie Hillman.

Rodgers is likely to payoff sooner rather than later. With as well as the Falcons are playing now, they will want to keep running back Michael Turner fresh as possible for their playoff run. Head Coach Mike Smith has plenty of confidence in Rodgers, so it is expected to see Rodgers’ role grow more and more as the season progresses. Rodgers is coming off his biggest performance last Sunday; 80 total yards and 13 touches.

The Broncos seem to be bringing Hillman along slowly and his progress has been showing. Last Sunday night he had his best game with 15 touches and 86 rushing yards. With the 31-year old McGahee leading the Broncos ground attack, it’s not a big stretch to think that Hillman will get worked in more and more to keep the Veteran fresh for the season stretch run. Hillman is improving and more Sundays like the last could be in store.


By David Ortega