FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY WATERCOOLER

December 9th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

The Wednesday  Saturday Watercooler

Week 14 Free Agency

With less than 15 hours until NFL Sunday week 14 kickoff, there’s still plenty of time to make some moves to improve your lineup and secure that playoff spot. These are some of my Week 14 favorites widely available in many leagues.

RB, Keaton Mitchell (Ravens) The rookie runner emerged in weeks 9 and 10 as a flex play with consecutive weeks scoring a touchdown. He’s been quiet since, but following a Week 12  performance where he out-snapped starter Gus Edwards 33 to 19 and out gained him 89 yards to 37, he is trending in the right direction. For those desperate for help in the backfield Mitchell is only owned in 34.3% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 26.1% in NFL.

WR, Romeo Doubs (Packers) The Packers wideout is only owned in 39.2% of NFL fantasy leagues and 41.0% of ESPN leagues. Over his past four games played Doubs has been scoring in the mid WR-3 range, with 15 receptions on 20 targets for 193 yards receiving and two scores. With Christian Watson ruled out and a great Monday night matchup against the Giants (5th worst against WR), he should be added.

WR, Noah Brown (Texans) Before his return to action last week, in his last two games Brown had collected 13 catches for 325 yards receiving and a score. He returned last week, but was very quiet. With the loss of rookie receiver Tank Dell, Brown will have an opportunity to make an impact. Brown is only owned in 26.4% of NFL fantasy leagues and 42.7 of ESPN, and although it will be a tough matchup in Week 14 against the Jets, he’ll still offer flex appeal.

WR, Zay Jones (Jaguars) If he’s healthy, with the absence of wide receiver Christian Kirk, the stage is set for a big opportunity for Zay Jones to fill in and play big. Jones is only owned in 9.3% of NFL fantasy leagues and 25.8 of ESPN, without an injury designation this Sunday, he’s a low end flex with a tough matchup against the Browns.

TE, Isaiah Likely (Ravens) The Ravens young tight end has yet to turn any heads, but at the one position that is very shallow in fantasy, Likely has value. Only owned in 39.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 15.3 in NFL, Likely is coming off  a 4-catch, 40 yards receiving (on 6 targets) performance in Week 12 (fantasy TE18) and facing the 8th worst defense versus fantasy tight ends. A part of a heavy run offense may limit opportunities, but he still has a chance to be a fringe TE1 for Week 14.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

Tonight’s matchup offers a lot of interesting perspectives, the possible return of running back Aaron Jones, the debut of wide receiver Christian Watson and the arrival of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Regardless of whichever you might find most intriguing, all of them will have some kind of fantasy impact in tonight’s matchup.

Aaron Jones looked dynamic and explosive in week one, but a bum hammy has had him sitting out the team’s last two games. If he’s 100% and ready to roll, he could feast in this matchup against the Lions defense (ranked 25th in passing vs RBs).

Christian Watson is slated to make his debut and if he’s good to go, he could add the explosiveness and deep threat the Packers offense is missing. With 7 passing touchdowns (ranked T3rd) this season, the addition of Watson will only give quarterback Jordan Love more options to beat a defense ranked 17th vs opposing QBs.

LaPorta has been terrific this season, currently the No.2 fantasy tight end. His 22 targets ranks second among tight ends while his 18 receptions also ranks tied for 2nd. He’ll easily be a featured target in this one and could be in for a big night.

These would be just a few of the storylines in this one and with that said, these are my favorite plays for DFS.

Thursday’s Take Five;

1. Jordan Love (QB) - I have to play the hot hand. Love has 8 total touchdowns this season, 7 pass, 1 run, tied with Tua Tagovailoa and second to Kirk Cousins 9. He gets a couple of big weapons back in Jones and Christian Watson and with the strong play of receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, I feel very strong about this play. (DK-My Captain)

2.Jahmyr Gibbs (QB) - The Lions rookie runner should be busy in the pass game out of the backfield, an area where the Packers have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Gibbs should also handle a fair share of the ground work, especially if Montgomery sits or is less than 100%.

3. Romeo Doubs (WR) - I believe the Lions secondary numbers are a bit skewed. We’ve seen the receiving situation in Kansas City and last week the Falcons receivers were awful. The Packers don’t have the likes of Adams, but with the return of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson and the recent play of Doubs and rookie receiver Jayden Reed, the Pack should have success airing it out. Doubs is tied with Reed for the team lead in targets with 20 and is tied with the rookie tied Luke Musgrave with 11 receptions. Doubs should see plenty of work and should benefit with the presence of Watson on the field.

4. Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR) - The Lions leading receiver has been consistent all three weeks, injury or not. He’s averaging 9+ targets per game and has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark, twice in three games. I can’t see him not delivering tonight. He should see a steady diet of targets throughout the evening and will certainly post his standard 6 for 80. And I’d say he’s due to find pay dirt in this one as well. 

5.Sam LaPorta (TE) - The Lions rookie tight end has been gold for fantasy owners through the first three weeks. He ranks second in targets (22), tied for second in receptions (18), and is the fantasy TE3. Just like St.Brown, the rookie should be a focal point in the Lion’s passing attack and could have a busy night.

A notable consideration for tonight’s matchup has to be the Packers rookie tight Musgrave. I believe the return of Jones and Watson tonight will cut into his workload in the air, but the kid should be an effective option in the red zone with his 6-foot, 6-inch frame.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega