FSH NOTEBOOK: DFS SATURDAY NIGHT

December 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

DFS Saturday night

These are the names I like on Sunday, NFL Week 13. I’ll have each of these players sprinkled in and throughout my fantasy lineups, as well as stacked in several.

RB, Zack Moss (Colts) We’ve seen Moss do it before as the lead back and with Jonathan Taylor already ruled out, he’ll serve in that role once again. The Titan’s run defense has been a bit leaky as of late and with Moss handling the lion share of the duties on Sunday (averaged over 23 touches per game pre-Taylor), he’ll provide a safe floor.

RB, Najee Harris (Steelers) This week at home against the Cardinals 30the ranked run defense, this feels like a Najee Harris game. He’s coming off his best rushing game of the season with 99 yards on the ground and a score and he led the team with 15 carries. 

WR, Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) Through 11 games Hill has been unstoppable. In his last 7 games he’s had no fewer than 9 targets, caught fewer than 8 balls once, topped 100-yards receiving in five of the seven, and has scored in six of the seven. The Commanders have been amongst the worst pass defenses the past four weeks, and with a matchup against Hill it won’t get any better.

WR, Michael Pittman Jr (Colts) The Colts wide receiver has seen 8 or more targets in each of his last four games, including 12 or more in three of those. He has only eclipsed 100 yards in one of those contests, but with his high volume he has a safe floor with upside.

TE, Sam LaPorta (Lions) The Lions rookie tight end has a nice matchup on Sunday and he’s coming off a nice showing of 5 catches, 47 yards receiving and a score last week. LaPorta has seen at least 5 targets in his last six straight games and has posted double-digit fantast points (ppr) in 3 of his last 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIX

November 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

Over his last three games the Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (fantasy WR2) is averaging 13 targets per game. During this span Allen has recorded 29 receptions for 368 yards receiving and three touchdowns. He’s pretty much matchup proof and a must-start WR-1.

During Weeks 9 thru 11, the Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (fantasy WR14) has registered 20 receptions (on 35 targets) for 319 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. Dell has been special the past three weeks and should be locked in as a safe WR2.

The Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (fantasy WR23) has scored a touchdown reception in five straight games. During this stretch he’s collected 24 receptions (on 31 targets) for 270 yards receiving and five of his season total 8 touchdowns. Sutton has been producing on the level of a fantasy WR-2 and should be considered such going forward.

Over his last three games, the Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE8) has caught 16 passes for 233 yards receiving and a score. The Bills rookie has been solid this season and become a reliable TE-1 going forward.

 The Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson (fantasy TE2) has caught 22 passes (on 34 targets) for 258 yards receiving and a touchdown over his last three games. The Vikings tight end is locked in as a TE-1.

With his touchdown grab on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (fantasy TE4) raised his season total to 5. LaPorta has blossomed into a solid TE-1 and a must-start every week.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 8th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

Hey, it’s Sunday, funday. We’ve got plenty of football on the docket and I am heavily invested in DFS today. With so many DFS lineups (probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 50, I may have a few questions swirling in my head. What’s the weather today, is this stud sitting today, did that guy get activated, do I have this guy in my lineups. These would be a few and while I have plenty more and little time before kickoff, it’s time to play a little game.

This little exercise I do can be considered the same “Questions Game”, Phoebe played with Joey on the show “Friends” where she asked him a series of questions and he answers them very quickly. Unfortunately for me there is no Monica and Rachel option. I will just have to stay with football criteria.

Here are the 10 quick questions or things on my mind.

1. How good is CJ Stroud?

My Take: The kid has been fabulous this season and impressive averaging over 300 passing per game with 6 passing touchdowns and no picks. The whole program in Houston looks impressive and I suspect the early success of Stroud has a lot to do with it. I can see the Texans start to shift their focus and lean more on the run game more going forward, but I don’t see Stroud necessarily slowing down. He’s got a nice compliment of weapons so I don’t believe his success is short lived.

2. Can Sammy Step up in Week 5?

My Take: The Lions are a little depleted on the offensive side of the ball with a couple of key players likely out today against the Panthers. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been better than good through the team’s first four games and will likely be featured in the pass game today. LaPorta is the number two fantasy tight end (fantasy points per game) and has a great chance at improving those numbers today.

3. Which Dolphin will blow up in Week 5?

My Take: All the Dolphins do is add speed and get faster. As if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle weren’t fast enough, the team has added wide receiver Chase Claypool. Nonetheless, Waddle, Claypool, Hill or even Robbie Chosen, this team is just a warehouse of dynamite waiting to explode. This week’s matchup looks to be a great opportunity and if I’m betting, it’s Cheetah time again.

4. Will Waller finally Wake?

My Take: It’s been four weeks, has someone reminded quarterback Daniel Jones, he has tight end Darren Waller in his lineup? Waller has basically been absent in the Giants pass game, the past two games with just 6 receptions for 41 yards and a fantasy TE31 showing in this span. The Giants offense has looked horrid and even a matchup with the Dolphins offers few silver linings. In what could become a lopsided affair, maybe Jones can check it down to Waller once in a while.

5. Can Swift Stay Hot?

My Take: Today’s matchup with the Rams will be interesting. The Eagles offense is loaded with weapons in the passing game and when you add Swift to the mix, look out. Since taking over the lead back duties in Philly, Swift has been stellar with 361 yards rushing and a 6.2 yards per carry average. The Rams defense has been in the top third against the run this season, but today they face Swift, a very tall task. The Eagles O-line is one of the best in the league and Swift is just a special talent, advantage Swift.

6. Is this The Return of Cooper Kupp?

My Take: I say it’s a bit premature to say it’s the return. However, I would expect to see Kupp targeted somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 times today. He will have fair numbers, worthy of starting but his impact will be how his presence will allow things to open up for Puka Nacua and Tyler Higbee today.

7. Can Joe Cool Heat Up?

My Take: As a fantasy owner of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase I certainly hope so. The real question is how healthy is that calf. I am sure the team is staring at their bye week (week 7), when rest will help Burrow heal. Until then, there are going to be some tough outings, however today’s matchup against the Cardinals may offer a glimpse of what might be coming. The Cardinals allow the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but are fantasy owners willing to chance it (not me).

8. Is it Breece Hall time?

My Take: Well it sure sounds like the Jets intend to turn Hall loose this week. The Head coach announced earlier in the week, no restrictions, just like music to fantasy owners ears. It’s a prime matchup for Hall, as the Broncos have the worst run defense this season and their tackling has been atrocious. Hall should be in all seasonal lineups today and make sure you have plenty of shares in DSF.

9. Can the Chiefs slow JJ?

My Take: So far through four weeks, no one has been able to slow Justin Jefferson. JJ is getting peppered with targets every week, averaging nearly 12 per game. All he has done with this workload is turned it into 8.2 receptions, 135 yards receiving per game with three touchdowns. He was the consensus overall number one in fantasy drafts and he is living up to expectations. Today shouldn’t be any different.

10. Can CMC steam roll the Cowboys?

My Take: This will be the classic “Clash of the Titans” NFC matchup and it will be in primetime on Sunday Night. Just like Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey was a top draft prospect in fantasy and in most drafts was the first running back selected. Through the first four weeks, CMC has been in a world of his own, leading all fantasy players in scoring with 150 yards of offense per game and seven touchdowns this season. Even if the Cowboys defense can slow him, he has such a high floor, he’s still going to get numbers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 5 STARTS

October 7th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 5

Start’Ems

We are now getting into the “Bye Weeks” of the NFL season and fantasy owners are now going to have to navigate with key players on bye and look to the waiver wire and free agent market to fill out their lineups. There are several key injuries this week that are going to impact many lineups; in Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown likely sits, Joe Burrow’s calf injury has fantasy owners weighing their choices this week, and in addition to St. Brown the Lions will likely be without their rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring).

Other notable week 5 injuries;

Jimmy Garappolo (concussion) P

Joe Burrow (calf) Q

Derek Carr (shoulder) Q

Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) D

Javonte Williams (quad) Q

Aaron Jones (hamstring) Q

Saquon Barkley (ankle) Q

Davante Adams (shoulder) Q

Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) D

Tee Higgins (ribs) O

Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) O

My week 5 Starts

While fantasy owners will likely be moving the listed players to their bench, these are a handful of Starts that should be in play for Week 5.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The rookie quarterback is healthy and looks great thru the first four weeks. Stroud has entered the starting fantasy QB conversation with his four week numbers; 1,212 yards passing (5th), 6 passing touchdowns (5th), and 110.65 passer rating (9th). He’s been sharp, consistent, and exciting to watch. With wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh in this early season, Stroud has the Texans playing good football at the moment. 

Stroud is currently the fantasy QB12. My projections for him this week are weighed more on how he’s been playing, rather than who he is facing. The Falcons have been a bit stingy this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but from what I’ve seen so far in the early part of this season, the Texans offense may be the biggest test for them thus far. Stroud has just been solid and he’s got some great weapons to work with in Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. 

If the Texans can get any semblance of a running game going this week, Stroud could be in for a big day off the play-action and hit a couple of deep shots. He’s a start for me this week.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - The rookie running back has been quite special the past couple of weeks. Like all big dawgs, you just gotta keep feeding him. Achane’s 2023 start was slowed with an injury that kept him sidelined in week one and limited to 6 snaps in week 2. Once they turned him loose in week 3, he was gone.

Achane has seen snapcounts of 30 (41%)  in week 3 and 39 (60%) in week 4,  and his numbers have been prolific. The rookie has toted the rock 26 times for 304 yards the past two weeks and his 309 total rushing yards leads the AFC. The critical stat to pay close attention to is his 60% snapcount share in week 4. Teammate Raheem Mostert fumbled twice, which contributed to Achane’s extended time on the field, but it is his talent that will keep him there.

This week’s matchup with the Giants is just way too sweet to avoid. Achane has to be in seasonal lineups as well as DFS. The Giants defense is ranked 29th versus the run and surrenders well over 4 yards per carry. I expect to see Achane getting in the action early and often and doing lots of damage. He’s a week 5 must-start for me. Start Achane.

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) - The Cardinals wide receiver is an interesting play for week 5. Quietly he is currently the fantasy WR22 with 21 receptions and 239 receiving yards to lead his team. He also has two receiving touchdowns.

Over his last three games played, “Hollywood” is averaging 9 targets, six receptions, and 70 receiving yards per game, which include his two touchdowns. During this stretch his numbers are a borderline WR-1/WR2.

While he does have what could be considered a tough matchup this week, Brown and his quarterback have been playing well over the past several weeks. With a home tilt on the slate for week 5, I feel good about his chances to put up good numbers once again. Hollywood should be in lineups and a good DFS value play. Start Hollywood.

Sam LaPorta (Lions) - The Lions rookie tight end has been spectacular this season. Through the first four weeks he is fantasy TE4, tied with the Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson. His 242 yards receiving leads all tight ends in the NFL and his 22 receptions ranks third.

LaPorta has an interesting matchup this week against the Panthers. Their defense does a decent job against opposing tight ends, but they have yet to face a tight end with LaPorta’s production level. With the exception of Hockenson, who the Panthers held in check last week.

With a depleted receiving corps in Detroit this week, I am expecting to see an even more involved LaPorta (27 targets this season - ranks 5th). Through the first four weeks Sammy has been good, he could be even better in week 5. Start Sam LaPorta in week 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

Tonight’s matchup offers a lot of interesting perspectives, the possible return of running back Aaron Jones, the debut of wide receiver Christian Watson and the arrival of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Regardless of whichever you might find most intriguing, all of them will have some kind of fantasy impact in tonight’s matchup.

Aaron Jones looked dynamic and explosive in week one, but a bum hammy has had him sitting out the team’s last two games. If he’s 100% and ready to roll, he could feast in this matchup against the Lions defense (ranked 25th in passing vs RBs).

Christian Watson is slated to make his debut and if he’s good to go, he could add the explosiveness and deep threat the Packers offense is missing. With 7 passing touchdowns (ranked T3rd) this season, the addition of Watson will only give quarterback Jordan Love more options to beat a defense ranked 17th vs opposing QBs.

LaPorta has been terrific this season, currently the No.2 fantasy tight end. His 22 targets ranks second among tight ends while his 18 receptions also ranks tied for 2nd. He’ll easily be a featured target in this one and could be in for a big night.

These would be just a few of the storylines in this one and with that said, these are my favorite plays for DFS.

Thursday’s Take Five;

1. Jordan Love (QB) - I have to play the hot hand. Love has 8 total touchdowns this season, 7 pass, 1 run, tied with Tua Tagovailoa and second to Kirk Cousins 9. He gets a couple of big weapons back in Jones and Christian Watson and with the strong play of receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, I feel very strong about this play. (DK-My Captain)

2.Jahmyr Gibbs (QB) - The Lions rookie runner should be busy in the pass game out of the backfield, an area where the Packers have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Gibbs should also handle a fair share of the ground work, especially if Montgomery sits or is less than 100%.

3. Romeo Doubs (WR) - I believe the Lions secondary numbers are a bit skewed. We’ve seen the receiving situation in Kansas City and last week the Falcons receivers were awful. The Packers don’t have the likes of Adams, but with the return of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson and the recent play of Doubs and rookie receiver Jayden Reed, the Pack should have success airing it out. Doubs is tied with Reed for the team lead in targets with 20 and is tied with the rookie tied Luke Musgrave with 11 receptions. Doubs should see plenty of work and should benefit with the presence of Watson on the field.

4. Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR) - The Lions leading receiver has been consistent all three weeks, injury or not. He’s averaging 9+ targets per game and has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark, twice in three games. I can’t see him not delivering tonight. He should see a steady diet of targets throughout the evening and will certainly post his standard 6 for 80. And I’d say he’s due to find pay dirt in this one as well. 

5.Sam LaPorta (TE) - The Lions rookie tight end has been gold for fantasy owners through the first three weeks. He ranks second in targets (22), tied for second in receptions (18), and is the fantasy TE3. Just like St.Brown, the rookie should be a focal point in the Lion’s passing attack and could have a busy night.

A notable consideration for tonight’s matchup has to be the Packers rookie tight Musgrave. I believe the return of Jones and Watson tonight will cut into his workload in the air, but the kid should be an effective option in the red zone with his 6-foot, 6-inch frame.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 3

September 25th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Afternoon Edition

NFL Sunday Week 3:

Sunday’s Heroes

What a wild weekend NFL Sunday week 3 was. 70 points scored in a single game, by one team. Three players on the same team with over 30 fantasy points, and two running backs from the same team scoring four touchdowns each. It was a day filled with great performances by some great players.

These were the NFL Week 3 Sunday Heroes.

QB, Justin Herbert (Chargers) - The Chargers signal caller was impressive on the road, leading the Bolts to a big and much needed week 3 win. Herbert was spectacular, completing 40 of 47 passes (85.1% completion) for 405 yards passing with 3 touchdowns. He finished the day as the fantasy QB1.

RB, De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - It was a “Welcome to the NFL” and breakout game for the Dolphins rookie running back as he ran rampant all over the Broncos defense. The Rook was Mister Big play all afternoon with impressive runs and scoring three times, including a scintillating display of speed on a 67-yard rushing scamper to the house. On the day, Achane rushed for 203 yards on 18 carries (11.3 yards per carry), adding 4 receptions and 30 yards receiving. He finished the day as the fantasy RB1.

WR, Keenan Allen (Chargers) - It only makes sense with the big day that Herbert turned in this afternoon, that Keenan would factor big. The Chargers wide receiver was ridiculous on Sunday, not only setting career highs with receptions (18) and yards (215) in a single game, but he also threw his first NFL touchdown pass to fellow teammate wide receiver Mike Williams. Allen was the fantasy WR1 for week 3.

TE, Sam LaPorta (Lions) - The Lions rookie tight end was huge on Sunday contributing big in the passing game and the team’s win at home. LaPorta started quickly in this one and was targeted often throughout. The rookie finished the day with 8 grabs, for 84 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown reception on 11 targets.

IDP, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - The Ravens safety was special on Sunday in a losing cause against the Colts. Hamilton turned in stellar performance recording 7 solo tackles, two tackles for a loss, and three 3 sacks. The Ravens defensive back also added three QB hits, a pass defense, and a forced fumble for good measure. An outstanding week 3 performance on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING POSTS

September 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

NFL Sunday Week 3

(X – Shout Outs)

My Four Horsemen

These are the players I expect to shine on Sunday.

QB-Kirk Cousins - The Vikings signal caller is fantasy QB1 through two games. He has passed for 708 yards, with 6-1, TD to Int ratio. The Chargers defense allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

RB-Kenneth Walker - The Seahawks running back is tied for fantasy RB14 through two games. Walker is averaging 17 touches, 60.5 scrimmage yards, and a touchdown per game. The Panthers D has surrendered 5 scores (4 run, 1 catch) to the position.

WR-George Pickens - The talented Steelers receiver leads the team with 17 targets, 9 receptions, and 163 yards receiving thru two games. He faces a Raiders D that allows the highest completion rate to WRs - 83.8%.

TE-Sam LaPorta - The rookie tight end has 10 receptions, 102 yards receiving, no scores thru two games. With a less than 100% St.Brown, LaPorta could see a big uptick in his usage and offer great DFS value.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega