FSH NOTEBOOK: DFS SATURDAY NIGHT

December 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

DFS Saturday night

These are the names I like on Sunday, NFL Week 13. I’ll have each of these players sprinkled in and throughout my fantasy lineups, as well as stacked in several.

RB, Zack Moss (Colts) We’ve seen Moss do it before as the lead back and with Jonathan Taylor already ruled out, he’ll serve in that role once again. The Titan’s run defense has been a bit leaky as of late and with Moss handling the lion share of the duties on Sunday (averaged over 23 touches per game pre-Taylor), he’ll provide a safe floor.

RB, Najee Harris (Steelers) This week at home against the Cardinals 30the ranked run defense, this feels like a Najee Harris game. He’s coming off his best rushing game of the season with 99 yards on the ground and a score and he led the team with 15 carries. 

WR, Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) Through 11 games Hill has been unstoppable. In his last 7 games he’s had no fewer than 9 targets, caught fewer than 8 balls once, topped 100-yards receiving in five of the seven, and has scored in six of the seven. The Commanders have been amongst the worst pass defenses the past four weeks, and with a matchup against Hill it won’t get any better.

WR, Michael Pittman Jr (Colts) The Colts wide receiver has seen 8 or more targets in each of his last four games, including 12 or more in three of those. He has only eclipsed 100 yards in one of those contests, but with his high volume he has a safe floor with upside.

TE, Sam LaPorta (Lions) The Lions rookie tight end has a nice matchup on Sunday and he’s coming off a nice showing of 5 catches, 47 yards receiving and a score last week. LaPorta has seen at least 5 targets in his last six straight games and has posted double-digit fantast points (ppr) in 3 of his last 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR SUNDAY

November 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

It’s Sunday morning, we have early morning football from Germany on the tube and NFL Sunday Week 9 is underway. With the main slate set to kickoff in just about 2 hours, I have a few questions as I look over the matchups today. 

Who’s going to have a big game, will anyone shock the world, and are we in for some high scoring affairs. Some of these are just general questions concerning today, but as I take a closer look at Week 9 here are the 10 questions.

1. Can Action Jackson serve up some Home Cooking?

Lamar Jackson is having a very good 23 campaign and with a home tilt today against the Seahawks he’ll look to continue. In his last two home starts he has 696 yards of offense and six touchdowns. Today could be big numbers.

2. Will the return of Watson Spark the Browns?

The Browns quarterback makes his return today after missing 3 of the team’s last four games. While his return should be a boost to the offense, just as important running back Jerome Ford appears ready to lead the backfield today. The Browns should fare well on the ground today against the Cardinals.

3. Is it Time for Stroud to Shine?

The Texans rookie signal caller has been relatively quiet the past several weeks. After throwing 7 touchdowns in his first 5 games averaging 292 yards passing, he has just two scoring throws and 169.5 yards passing per game. A home matchup with a leaky Tampa Bay secondary could be the fix needed, dial up some Texans receivers today.

4. Can Derek Carr Stay Hot?

The Saints passer has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight contests. He has the Bears 30th ranked pass defense on the slate today and a good chance to make it four. The Bears have allowed over 300 yards passing three times this season and gave up 298 in Week 8.

5. Can a Change at QB Spark some Offense?

The Falcons will play host today to the Vikings and will be doing so with a change at quarterback. Taylor Heinicke will take over the offense today for Atlanta in hope of sparking more offense through the air. In relief last week Heinicke stepped in and completed 12 of 21 with a touchdown. With no Drake London, today could be the Kyle Pitts, Van Jefferson, and Bijan Robinson show.

6. Is it Time to Set Jones Free (again)?

There were calls a couple of seasons ago to set Aaron Jones free. This season the Packers running back has been hampered by a lingering hamstring injury, but finally there may be a ray of hope. Per the Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur, Jones has looked good in practice this week and the team could be ready to cut him loose. If Jones is turned loose, he’ll have a chance to be an RB-1 today. 

7. Who will catch passes for the Patriots today?

The Patriots are depleted at the receiver position today with Kendrick Bourne placed on IR earlier this week and DeVante Parker ruled out. Could today be JuJu Smith-Schuster time? JuJu has only recorded 15 catches this season, including one last week for 3 yards. This is a tough situation fantasy managers may want to avoid.

8. Is it Taylor’s Time?

The Colts running back Zack Moss has continued to be a big part of the team's running game, but for two straight weeks now Jonathan Taylor has led the team in Rushing. Last week was Taylor’s best rushing output, with 95 yards on 12 carries and with a Week 9 matchup against a Panthers 24th ranked run defense, Taylor could be poised for a big day. Dial up some JT today. 

9. Will Big Changes in Vegas Pay Fantasy Dividends?

The Raiders decided to clean house after their Monday night loss to the Lions. The Raiders offense looked bad and now with the firings of HC Josh McDaniels and the GM, the team announced a change at quarterback. With rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell under center, is there hope for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to be productive? The Raiders offense looked bad on Monday night, so they really can’t get any worse, I am willing to roll the dice with a home matchup with the Giants.

10. Can Joe Cool Chill the Bills?

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been playing well the past several weeks and the offense could be on the verge of hitting on all pistons. With Ja’Marr Chase (fantasy WR5) playing great and Tee Higgins getting healthier, Burrow may be just getting started. The Bills secondary and defense has allowed the 6th most passing yards over the past 4 weeks, expect Joe and company to push those numbers higher. Dial up your Big Cats today.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL FIXX

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Saturday’s Fantasy Fixx

(My DFS Lineup - Week 9)

I love to play DFS every week, but I have yet to hit the Millionaire-maker. Until I do I’ll just keep throwing my hat in the ring and taking a shot. This week I went heavy with the backfield, relying on ball carriers with higher usage rate.

For Week 9, I will shoot with the following;

QB-Derek Carr (Saints) The Saints signal caller has been rolling lately with three straight games with 300+ yards passing. This week he has a home matchup with a 30th ranked Bears secondary.

RB-Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Last week Taylor started heating up with 95 yards rushing last week on 12 carries. This week's matchup against the looks great for 

RB-Aaron Jones (Packers) At home, Rams are going with a back-up quarterback, it’s the perfect storm to turn Jones loose. He’s only averaged 11 touches his last two games, turn him loose.

WR-Van Jefferson (Falcons) With Drake London ruled out for Week 9, the door is open for Jefferson to make an impact in the passing game. A change at quarterback this week may also serve well for Jefferson.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) The Texans wideout is coming off a quiet Week 8 showing and has not made much noise since his Week 4 explosion against the Steelers. This week he faces a Buccaneers secondary that has struggled against receivers the past couple of games. Week 9 could be redemption for Collins.

WR- Terry McLaurin (Commanders) The Commanders leading receiver this season is averaging better than 10 targets per game over his last three. His target rate gives him a chance for a big game. 

TE-Cole Kmet (Bears) This pick is based on game script. The Bears receivers will likely draw the meat of the secondary. Kmet was targeted 10 times last week and in a matchup that could see the Bears trailing on the road, Kmet could see similar usage.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) This season Kamara has been incredibly safe this season with a higher floor than most. He leads all backfields this season in touches per game and has a very good matchup this week against the Bears who struggle with pass catching running backs, most receiving yards allowed this season.

DST-Browns. The Browns defense has been consistent and one of the safest plays this season. They are home this week against a Cardinals offense that will have a rookie QB making his first career start.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th, 2023

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Stocks: Falling Stocks

From the desk of The (fantasy) Football Street Journal, there are a number of players in this year’s Fantasy player pool with cloudy outlooks. Avoid these stocks.

Stock Falling

Jonathan Taylor, ADP 3.02 - On the team’s PUP for the first four games of the season, the Colts running back is trending down. Still going in the 3rd round in most drafts, unless Taylor falls deep into the mid-rounds, he is one to avoid. Too much risk with this investment.

Jameson Williams, ADP 11.01 - The Lions 2nd year receiver is suspended for the first six games and will be away from the team as he still rehabs. His outlook is very unsettling at this time. Expected to miss at the very least six and there’s no real indication of what kind of impact he’ll make when he returns. With his stock falling, even as a late round flier he carries some risk.

Kyler Murray, ADP 14.03 - The Cardinals quarterback is going to be sidelined to start the 2023 NFL season as the team has placed him on the PUP. He will miss the team’s first four games, but beyond that it is unclear. Currently there is so much speculation going around about how long Murray could be out, in fantasy football his stock is plummeting. At his current ADP that’s about the only place to consider him. He’s a wait and see proposition until he’s at least back on the practice field.

Darnell Mooney, ADP 11.07 - With the addition of wide receiver Chase Claypool last season and the arrival of former Panthers receiver DJ Moore, Mooney’s fantasy outlook is muddled at best. More of a run-first team, the Bears had the fewest pass attempts and completions of any offense in 2022. With Moore and Claypool in the huddle now, Mooney is going to have stiff competition for targets this season.With the talk of trade rumors floating around, his stock continues to slide.

Dawson Knox, ADP 13.11 - The Bills went out and drafted themselves another tight end with their 1st round pick in the recent NFL draft, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid). Since the start of camp there’s been a buzz and talk about the rookie tight end, who’s currently being drafted ahead of Knox. The Bills list Knox ahead of Kincaid on the depth chart, but as the start of the season gets closer, the sleeper talk around Kincaid grows and the appeal of Knox falls.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Late-Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

RB Rankings for 2023

With the signal-callers out of the way, it’s time to look at the workhorses in the backfield. Here are my Top-10 for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Nick Chubb

4. Saquon Barkley

5. Bijan Robinson

6. Tony Pollard

7. Derrick Henry

8. Josh Jacobs

9. Rhamondre Stevenson

10. Najee Harris

With running back Kareem Hunt no longer in Cleveland, this paves the way for running back Nick Chubb to improve upon his No.7 fantasy scoring (points-per-game) finish in 2022. Last season the Browns running back posted 1,525 yards rushing (career high) and 12 rushing touchdowns (tying-career high). Chubb will be running behind one of the best O-lines in the game this season and at the youthful age of 27, he’s primed for a big year.

The Giants running back Saquon Barkley is coming off a bounce back year in 2022 (finished as the No.5 fantasy running back) after his disappointing 2021 season (finished as No.29), minimum of 10 games played. Last season Barkley set a career high with 1,312 yards rushing while posting 10 rushing scores (2nd most in his career). More than a full season removed from his ACL tear that cut his 2021 season, Barkley is a Top-10 fantasy running back heading into the 2023 season with Top-5 tendencies.

The Steelers running back Najee Harris rounds out the Top-10, coming in at number 10. Harris was disappointing in 2022 for fantasy owners finishing as the No.19 fantasy scoring running back (minimum 10 games). Harris took a step back in 2022, rushing for over 160 yards less than the previous season and catching 33 fewer balls. It’s no secret Harris played with an injury last season which could have played a big role in his regression. The Steelers offense looks a bit different this preseason (improved) and could be set up to take some big steps forward when the regular season starts. Now healthy, Harris figures to again lead the ground attack and should benefit greatly.

The Next 10.

11. Breece Hall

12. Travis Etienne Jr.

13. Aaron Jones

14. Joe Mixon

15. Dameon Pierce

16. Jahmyr Gibbs

17. Kenneth Walker

18. Alexander Matison

19. JK Dobbins

20. Alvin Kamara

The Texans running back Dameon Pierce slots in at number 15 in my rankings. He’s coming off a shortened 2022 season where he finished as the No.20 fantasy scoring running back. Pierce totaled over 1,000 yards with 5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Pierce has the talent and ability to improve upon last season’s numbers and if he plays a larger role in the offense than originally thought, he’s got a chance at finishing as a borderline RB1/RB2.

Notably missing is running back Jonathan Taylor. In a 12-Team format, I am not willing to risk the draft capital with an early round pick. I’d rather sit on him and get him as my third RB or pass altogether.

Another notable back absent from my Top-20 is Miles Sanders, just missing the cut. Last season he finished as the RB22 in fantasy scoring, so I am pretty comfortable where I have him. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega