FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING QUICK TAKES (WEEK 10)

November 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Week 10 FF Quick Takes

The Rambling Runners

Gus Edwards (Ravens)

The Ravens running back has had the hot hand of late scoring 6 rushing touchdowns his last three games. This week he faces the Browns 6th ranked run defense, so treading on the ground this week could be tough, fantasy managers should temper expectations a bit.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Even with the return of David Montgomery this week, the rookie runner (Gibbs) should be a featured piece in the run as well as the passing game. Gibbs has 18 receptions for 106 receiving yards in his last three games.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers)

The Bucs running back has been trending upward over the last several weeks with 17 receptions for 181 receiving yards over his last three games. He’ll also have a chance to do some damage on the ground against the Titans run defense that has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards the last two weeks.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL FIXX

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Saturday’s Fantasy Fixx

(My DFS Lineup - Week 9)

I love to play DFS every week, but I have yet to hit the Millionaire-maker. Until I do I’ll just keep throwing my hat in the ring and taking a shot. This week I went heavy with the backfield, relying on ball carriers with higher usage rate.

For Week 9, I will shoot with the following;

QB-Derek Carr (Saints) The Saints signal caller has been rolling lately with three straight games with 300+ yards passing. This week he has a home matchup with a 30th ranked Bears secondary.

RB-Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Last week Taylor started heating up with 95 yards rushing last week on 12 carries. This week's matchup against the looks great for 

RB-Aaron Jones (Packers) At home, Rams are going with a back-up quarterback, it’s the perfect storm to turn Jones loose. He’s only averaged 11 touches his last two games, turn him loose.

WR-Van Jefferson (Falcons) With Drake London ruled out for Week 9, the door is open for Jefferson to make an impact in the passing game. A change at quarterback this week may also serve well for Jefferson.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) The Texans wideout is coming off a quiet Week 8 showing and has not made much noise since his Week 4 explosion against the Steelers. This week he faces a Buccaneers secondary that has struggled against receivers the past couple of games. Week 9 could be redemption for Collins.

WR- Terry McLaurin (Commanders) The Commanders leading receiver this season is averaging better than 10 targets per game over his last three. His target rate gives him a chance for a big game. 

TE-Cole Kmet (Bears) This pick is based on game script. The Bears receivers will likely draw the meat of the secondary. Kmet was targeted 10 times last week and in a matchup that could see the Bears trailing on the road, Kmet could see similar usage.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) This season Kamara has been incredibly safe this season with a higher floor than most. He leads all backfields this season in touches per game and has a very good matchup this week against the Bears who struggle with pass catching running backs, most receiving yards allowed this season.

DST-Browns. The Browns defense has been consistent and one of the safest plays this season. They are home this week against a Cardinals offense that will have a rookie QB making his first career start.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 23rd 2019

Week 12: Quick Take

RB-Nick Chubb, Browns
Over his past five games, Browns running back Nick Chubb has had at least 20 carries, averaging nearly 24 touches per game. The Browns ball carrier has seen a minimum of 21 touches and eclipsed 100 yards rushing in three of the five contests. His per game average over this span is 105.1 yards rushing (526 total rushing yards) with two rushing scores. Chubb has also been active in the passing game with 12 receptions for 55 receiving yards on 17 targets. This week Chubb faces a Dolphins defense that allows 148.3 yards rushing per game (31st in the league), so he’ll have a great chance to post solid numbers.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 25th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

PPR Studs

When it comes to fantasy football, I will play any format, standard, DFS, Head-to-Head, rotisserie style. There’s no question that one of my favorites and one of the most popular is PPR or points-per-reception. In this format players are rewarded with a half-point and a full point (other leagues may vary) for each reception.

In this format, the emphasis is on the pass-catching players, wide receivers, tight ends and these guys, my PPR studs. These will be the guys fantasy owners can count on to see a heavy volume of targets and receptions throughout the season.

Now you have your top tier elite PPR ballers in running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, so these are the backs a couple of tiers down that specialize at the passing game. At the top of my list for such candidates include the new Ravens running back Danny Woodhead. When he was in San Diego, Woodhead was featured in the passing attack. Last season Woodhead’s season was cut short to two games, but back in 2015 when he played all 16, he lead all running backs with 106 targets and tied for the most receptions with 80. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue in recent years, no question he’s a PPR stud.

Another capable pass-catcher out of the backfield includes the Lions running back Theo Riddick. In 2015 Riddick tied with Woodhead with 80 receptions (on 99 targets) to lead all running backs and again in  2016 he was a top 10 running back in targets with 67. Despite only touching the ball 159 times last season, Riddick still finished as the number 25 running back in PPR.

Without a doubt and up and comer in the PPR fantasy world is the Browns 2nd year running back Duke Johnson. The kid out of Miami University has proven to be excellent out of the backfield totaling 74 targets in each of his first two seasons finishing with 114 receptions, finishing only behind Theo Riddick (133 receptions), Devonta Freeman (127 receptions), and David Johnson (116 receptions) over that same span. The word is Duke is expected to be even more involved this season; can you say upside.

Now this back is a bit of sneaky play and one you can likely get at great value. The Jets running back Bilal Powell is coming off the board around the 6th round as the RB28 (according to FFC). Over the past season Powell has seen 137 targets and hauled in 105 balls, making him a prime value PPR play at his current ADP. The Jets are in rebuild mode and there’s just not much there right now, even with the presence of Matt Forte. Last season Powell saw 205 touches finishing as the number RB16 in PPR; would not surprise to see him equal of increase his touches in 2017.

Okay, with all of that shared and said, one more.

Perhaps a sleeper or some great late round value with the Giants running back Shane Vereen. There’s been nothing said or reported recently that should have anyone believing Vereen won’t be a part of the offense this season. Vereen has a current ADP of 13.07, coming off the board around the 13th round as the RB58. Vereen missed a lot of time last season which is likely why he is the forgotten man in New York, but back in 2015 he played in all 16 games finishing with 81 targets, 59 receptions, and a total of 120 touches; not a huge volume but good enough for Vereen to finish as the RB26 (flex play territory). Savvy Owners will be looking at him in the later rounds.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 18th, 2016

Sunday

Sunday Spotlight

I am just spotlighting a couple of Sunday plays this week that I happen to fancy.

After his week one dud, fantasy owners are probably ready to toss the Browns big tight end, Gary Barnidge to the side, but hold on there. Last week was with Robert Griffin III under center and this week there has been a change. With the likely season-ending injury to RGIII in week one, the Browns will have journey-man quarterback Josh McCown under center this Sunday. For fantasy owners of Barnidge, with McCown calling the signals there is hope.

Last season with McCown throwing to him, Barnidge was a weekly top-10 fantasy play and a big reason for the tight end finishing as one of fantasy's top tight ends. Last week Barnidge was a big goose end only seeing two targets, owners can expect a big reversal this Sunday. He should be plenty involved in the pass game and his large frame makes him a solid red-zone target.

His Sunday line; 6 receptions, 75 yards and a touchdown.

The Giants will be playing host to the traveling Saints today and if you own any Giants get them in your lineups today; even the waterboy could get in for a score. While the popular plays will be the regular starters, one play I am high on is the return of wide receiver Victor Cruz.

Last week Cruz found the end zone against the Cowboys and this week I expect a return trip against the Saints. Cruz could see a few more targets than the four he saw last week facing a Saints secondary that was abused last week for over 300 yards in the air. With Odell Beckham Jr drawing a lot of the attention, I look for Cruz to slip into the top 20 this week with a solid receiving day.

His Sunday line; 5 receptions, 80 yards, and a touchdown

That's my take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAYS TAKE

Thursday Edition

September 27th, 2012 

Thursdays Take

Starts

The Ravens quarterback has looked solid this season and with a favorable matchup tonight against the Browns tonight he should continue his hot hand. The Browns defense has been torched for eight touchdowns and nearly 270 yards per game this season, expect Flacco to use his no huddle to keep the defense off balance  and with sound ground game he should be effective over-the-top; he’s a must start tonight.

The Ravens running back Ray Rice has been a solid fantasy play and one of the most consistent options dating back to last year. Rice has totaled 395 yards of offense and scored three times this season, facing the league’s 22^nd ranked run defense tonight he should be good for another 100 yards plus night and a score. His 14 receptions through three games this season also make him a most attractive option in PPR leagues; he’s so good that he’s almost good enough to start during his bye week (but we wouldn’t).

The rookie running back Trent Richardson is off to a slow start this season, but now that his health is back he should see plenty of opportunity tonight against a Ravens defense that is ranked 18^th in the league. The Ravens are surrendering more than 100 yards per game on the ground, but their 3.3 yards per carry average mean Richardson is going to have to work for his. The rookie also has 11 catches this season, so he’ll also be productive in the pass game. He’s not in line for a monster game, but he should be more than serviceable as a low end RB2 this.

Sits

Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden could have plenty of success completing passes for lots of yards, but facing a tough foe like the Ravens defense he's likely to take a number if hits and sacks. The Ravens could jump out quick in this one and force Weeden to have to put the ball up early and often. Expect too many turnovers tonight to be a good fantasy play; leave him on your bench.

Browns’ wide receiver Greg Little has been more than inconsistent and a disappointment as a fantasy option this season, but then again being a part of the Browns offense expectations were never that high. His recent struggles include drops (2^nd in NFL in 2011) and it sounds like he may see little time on the field tonight, if any. He appears to be one fantasy option worth avoiding at this time.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKES

Saturday Edition

September 15th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

QUICK TAKES

Jermaine is Ready to Dance on Sunday

The Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham sees a very favorable matchup this week facing the Browns. Gresham has emerged as one of quarterback Andy Dalton’s favorite pass catchers and looking back at the damaged he caused against the Browns in 2011 (in two games), he figures to be on the hot list to do more damage this weekend.

In two games last season Gresham was extremely productive hauling in 11 passes for over 100 yards with two scores (standard scoring; 24 points, higher in PPR). Although the Bengals tight end was limited to just three grabs for 30 yards in week one, owners should take solace in the fact Gresham was targeted eight times (third on the team). Gresham hasn’t elevated to that next (fantasy) level, but he should be solid option in week 2.

My Take: He’s a safe start this week against a Browns defense that allowed 7 receptions for 81 yards and a score the Eagles tight ends in week one.

Rice Could Be Cooked on Sunday

The Seahawks number receiver Sidney Rice has been looking like anything, but a top-flight fantasy option at the receiver spot. And after spending the entire week on the injury reports, his probabl status does little to change his outlook for Sunday. The Seahawks offense will have a lot of work ahead of them this season as they struggle to find their identity with a young quarterback under center; don’t expect the Cowboys 7^th ranked defense to make that any easier in week 2.

Rice did score a week ago against the Arizona Cardinals defense, but he finished the game with just four grabs for 36 yards; hardly anything for a fantasy owner to get too excited about. This week matched up with a Cowboys secondary that kept both Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks out of the end zone in week 1, Rice’s outlook looks shady at best.

My Take: I am not a big fan of Rice this week, nor quarterback Russell Wilson. In week one the Cowboys defense brought plenty of pressure getting to Giants quarterback Eli Manning three times. If they are successful bringing pressure on Sunday (and they should be) Wilson will have little time to look downfield for any receivers, let alone his big target (Rice).

By David Ortega