FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Fantasy Football Week 8

Eight weeks into fantasy football and now's the time to make bold moves, smart decisions, and decisive choices to secure your playoff slot or turn your season around. Now that we are just beyond the mid-point, these are a couple of moves I am making this week in my season-long redraft leagues.

“Pick-of-the-litter"

WR-Kenny Stills, Texans; With starting wide receiver Will Fuller (knee) out for a couple of games, Kenny Stills should slide into a starting role. Stills joined the team just before the start of the regular season, and in the short time has already shown a connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Injuries have slowed down Stills 2019 campaign, but he’s healthy and should be ready to go to fill in nicely for Fuller. Stills is coming off injury and in his first game back posted a 4-catch, 105 receiving yard effort on 5 targets. With Fuller sidelined, he should see a significant boost in targets and production over the coming weeks.

Dumpster-ville

RB-Duke Johnson, Texans; For fantasy football purposes only, I have dropped running back Duke Johnson (Fantasy RB36). With Carlos Hyde cemented as the team’s primary early down back, Johnson is not seeing enough work to hold onto, let alone insert into a lineup. In PPR scoring (1pt per reception), since week 2 his games are as follows; 3.1, 2.4, 7.8, 6.7, 11.4, and 5.6 (6.2 average). With this kind of production, he’s a low value flex at best, and probably not worth holding on limited roster sizes.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Evening Edition
September 1st, 2019

Sold! Just call me Jack

I wasn’t buying the hype at the start of the NFL Training Camps, but with the social media buzz and 2019 season outlook, it’s really tough for me to stay off the Baker Mayfield bandwagon. Sure expectations are high this season in Cleveland and sure there will be a lot of pressure, but it’s hard to deny Mayfield has the tools and now an elite weapon in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Add OBJ to the likes of wide receiver Jarvis Landry, running back Nick Chubb, and tight end David Njoku and this offense looks loaded. The Browns team may not live up to all of the Super Bowl hype this season, but this offense looks poised to put up serious fantasy numbers and with Mayfield calling the signals, I am drinking the Kool-aid even at his current ADP 66.0 overall (FFC ).

I remember it was either last season or the season before when Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was clocked with one of the fastest open field run times during a game. During week 3 preseason against the Dolphins Fournette looked spry and quick. There’s no doubt, he has the size, the power, and the tools to be a dominant runner in the league, but he needs to stay healthy. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Fournette has missed 11 games. His health would be my only hesitation, but he looked good enough to be worth risk; coming off the board at RB13 with an ADP of 24.5 (according to FFC), I’m buying me some shares.

Despite the arrival of running back Carlos Hyde to the Texans, I still expect to see Duke Johnson to play the role of the lead back. It’s a great situation and opportunity for Duke to finally showcase and prove he can be the featured back. In his college days Johnson was the bell-cow in south beach (University of Miami). In his final season with the Hurricanes Johnson logged 280 touches for 2,073 yards (1,652 rushing, 421 receiving) of total offense. It's a big step up in the NFL, but through his first four season, Johnson has yet to miss a game. I believe Duke has the talent and now the opportunity to be a Top-20 fantasy running back. I’ll buy that.

After watching the Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders return to action this preseason (the team's fourth game) and having seen some of his practice highlight footage, I am sold on the 10 year veteran. Last season Sanders was the number 23 fantasy receiver (full PPR) and returns in 2019, as the team's clear number one option. Even though the team seems to be geared more toward a run-first concept, I believe the combination of quarterback Joe Flacco-to-Sanders could result in some nice production. He’s currently at ADP 87.3, WR34 (FFC), and as good as he has looked with Flacco, he’s moving up my rankings and I will be buying what he’s selling.

I was originally buying into the running back situation in Kansas City, but with the recent changes (addition of LeSean McCoy) in the last 24 hours, I don’t have any idea where I am leaning. With these backs, I am treading lightly, although I have to believe Damien Williams will still be an integral piece of the offense.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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November 25th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

My Week 12 DFS Plays

With an exciting slate of 12 games on the board for Sunday, I am more than excited about playing me some DFS. Here are some of the names that will filter their way to my lineups for Week 12;

Duke Johnson Jr; The Browns running back posted a solid line the last time he faced the Bengals, thinking he can duplicate the type of outcome on Sunday.

LeSean McCoy; The Chiefs defense has not been great against the run of late and Shady is still one of the league’s most elusive and exciting running backs.

Tyrod Taylor; This is a full-on contrarian play for sure, but I like the odds with Taylor after being reinserted into the lineup with his matchup against an over-rated Chiefs defense. I am playing him in a stack with McCoy and Jones.

Martavis Bryant; he’s a risky boom or bust play every week, but the absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster favors his chances.

Kareem Hunt; I’d be expecting a big bounce back day after last week’s dud. Hunt has been too good this season to say quiet two consecutive weeks.

Kenny Stills; I’m not expecting quite the same day he had a week ago, but if he can post a modest 6 catches for 90 yards (or better), at his price I’d be more than happy.

Brandin Cooks; Just playing the numbers and the matchups with Cooks here. I am also making my pick based on what we saw last week. Brady and Cooks are starting to get in sync; look out opposing defensive backs.

Ben Roethlisberger; I am definitely feeling a big game from Big Ben this week. Last week’s 299 yards passing and 4 touchdowns was his best game this season, but this Sunday could be better.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 6 RB Rankings

This has to be PPR Week in the NFL. All the way up to No.14 this week is the Browns running back Duke Johnson Jr, solely on his receiving prowess. Through five weeks Johnson has powered his way up to the No.8 fantasy RB spot in PPR with 23 receptions on 31 targets. With only 16 carries, Duke is basically used as another receiver and stays heavily involved. Last week his touches and targets dipped a bit, but this week against a battered Texans defense he’ll likely take advantage.

Another PPR specialist that should make a lot of noise this week is Patriots running back James White. The Patriots ball carrier comes in at No.20 and that’s right where he is on the season; the No.20 fantasy RB in PPR. Through the team’s first five games White has been targeted 35 times and snagged 29 balls. He’s at home this week and will take his shots at a jets defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs; he may not be high enough in this week’s rankings.

RB Rankings

1. Kareem Hunt

2. Todd Gurley

3. Le’Veon Bell

4. Melvin Gordon

5. Devonta Freeman

6. Leonard Fournette

7. Jordan Howard

8. Doug Martin

9. DeMarco Murray

10. Lamar Miller

11. CJ Anderson

12. Mark Ingram

13. Jay Ajayi

14. Duke Johnson

15. Ameer Abdullah

16. Carlos Hyde

17. Jerick McKinnon

18. Alvin Kamara

19. Javorius Allen

20. James White

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Aaron Jones

23. Tevin Coleman

24. Chris Thompson

25. Andre Ellington

26. Tarik Cohen

27. Elijah McGuire

28. Mike Gillislee

29. Samaje Perine

30. Jamaal Charles

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 8th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My Week 5 Four Horsemen + Flex

(Bold Predictions)

It’s report card check time as I take a quick look back at last week’s picks. I started off well with my Deshaun Watson pick, but to be honest he greatly out-performed any of my expectations; 5 touchdowns last week (33.72 fantasy points). My running back selection was Jacquizz Rodgers who did well totaling 108 yards (12.8 fantasy points), while my wide receiver was Jarvis Landry (12.60 fantasy points) was decent. Travis Kelce (my week 4 selection) was solid with 7 catches, 111 yards receiving (for 24.10 fantasy points), and a score, while (flex play) running back Chris Thompson (1.70 fantasy points) finally cooled. My week 4 defense was Jacksonville and we scored well there.

Overall grade B

Quarterback

On the road or at home the Eagles secondary has not been very good this season allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the 3rd most passing yards this season. In his last three starts, Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has thrown for better than 300 yards in each game, but only has 4 touchdowns over that span. With a full complement of receiving weapons, I expect Palmer to have success taking a couple of shots downfield in this one; 22 of 30 passing for 315 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one interception.

Running Back

He’s been the workhorse for the Steelers the past three weeks, averaging more than 30 touches per game, and Le’Veon Bell is likely to see a lot more of the same this Sunday against Jacksonville. The Jags allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have surrendered 576 rushing yards (2nd most), including nearly 6 yards per carry in four games. Bell is primed for a big day and this game sets up right in his wheelhouse; 110 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 35 receiving yards, and one score.

Wide Receiver

This week’s receiver of choice is the Niners Pierre Garcon. Through four weeks Garcon is the No.26 fantasy WR (in PPR). He has been targeted 33 times turning in 20 receptions for 285 yards, but no touchdowns. Sunday Garcon will get a shot at his old team, the Colts. This season the Colts defense has allowed 789 receiving yards to opposing receivers and surrender the 8th most fantasy points. Garcon is so heavily targeted this season, he’s almost guaranteed to see plenty of chances on Sunday; 7 catches 90 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight End

It’s been an up and down season with not much up for Chargers tight end Hunter Henry. His only week with double digit fantasy scoring (in PPR) came in week 2 when he caught 7 passes for 80 yards (15.0 fantasy points). Henry has just 10 catches for 96 yards in four games, but a matchup on Sunday with the Giants could change all of this. The Giants defense is the worst against opposing tight ends allowing the most fantasy points, 3rd most receiving yards, 2nd most receptions, and 5 touchdowns (most in the league). It could be a dream matchup for Henry, if this is the week he’s involved in the passing game. His numbers for Sunday; 6 catches, 75 yards receiving, one touchdown.

Flex

While Browns head coach Hue Jackson is not ready to feature Duke Johnson Jr as his primary runner, there’s no doubt Johnson will be featured in the pass game with a number of runs sprinkled in throughout. In four games Duke is ranked as the No.17 fantasy RB (in PPR) with 20 reception for 207 receiving yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. The Jets defense has had trouble with running backs on the ground allowing the 8th most rushing yards and 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Johnson has steadily seen an average of more than 10 touches per game the past couple of weeks averaging 7.5 receptions on 17 targets. Johnson should again see similar numbers on Sunday; 35 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 55 yards receiving, with a score.

Defense; the Bengals defense gets my start for week 4. The defense is home this week playing host to the Bills. Through 4 games the Bengals have recorded 12 sacks and Bills offense has allowed 12; something is going to give. The Bengals are only the No.12 ranked defense in fantasy, but playing at home this week will certainly help them improve their numbers.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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September 25th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Week 3 Sunday Heroes

Not the Usual Suspects

Week 3 was filled with a lot offense, but not for the usual suspects. On Sunday was saw a lot of new faces in the headlines and that’s just fine with fantasy owners (as long as they keep it up);

The newest Suspect in the huddle for week 3 was the Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett. After getting his first start of the season last week, Brissett turns into a playmaker this week accounting for three scores and leading the Colts to a Week 3 win over the Browns. The impact was the re-emergence of TY Hilton, which is great news for fantasy owners.

Perhaps an even bigger surprise than the Colts week 3 win, was the play of Vikings quarterback Case Keenum. The surprise was not his playing well, but rather how well. Keenum completed near 76 percent of his passes on his way to 369 yards and three touchdowns with no picks. Fantasy owners of the Vikings receivers can breathe a sigh of relief going forward; the passing game appears to be in capable hands.

QB-Case Keenum: 25 of 33, 369 pa yds, 3 Tds

QB-Jacoby Brissett: 17 of 24, 259 pa yds, 1 Td, 2 ru Tds

QB-Blake Bortles: 20 of 31, 244 pa yds, 4 Tds

The Redskins have found themselves one heck of a gem in running back Chris Thompson; 188 total yards on Sunday night. The Redskins 3rd down scat back not only has good hands for the passing game (13 receptions), but a nose for the big play (4 touchdowns in 2017). He’s a PPR darling and touchdown machine at the moment and should be in lineups every week.

The Browns Duke Johnson has alse emerged as a viable weekly PPR play with 11 receptions for 160 yards for the season. In week 3 the former Miami Hurricane (where’s he from?) showed off his skills totaling 104 yards of offense with a touchdown. He’s steady flex in PPR formats.

RB-Chris Thompson: 38 ru yds, 6 rec, 150 rec yds, 1 Td

RB-Duke Johnson: 23 ru yds, 6 rec, 81 rec yds, 1 Td

RB-Chris Carson: 34 ru yds, 2 rec, 18 rec yds, 1 Td

RB-Jamaal Charles: 56 ru yds, 1 Td

It was worth mentioning the re-emergence of TY Hilton, especially since fantasy owners will once again be without quarterback Andrew Luck (ruled Out) through week 4. Hilton showcased his big play skills with an exceptional 61 yard touchdown reception and showed everyone he’s still very relevant (fantasy and reality) even without Luck.

The name to watch on this list is the Chargers Travis Benjamin. He’s a homerun hitter that Philip Rivers likes to go to deep. On Sunday the two showcased this a bit. There’s just so much talent at the WR skill position (not enough targets to go around), consistency will be the only issue with Benjamin.

Ty Hilton: 7 rec, 153 rec yds, 1 Td

Sterling Shepard: 7 rec, 133 rec yds, 1 Td

Rishard Matthews: 6 rec, 87 rec yds, 1 Td

Taylor Gabriel: 5 rec, 79 rec yds, 1 Td

Geronimo Allison: 6 rec, 122 rec yds, 0 Tds

Travis Benjamin: 5 rec, 105 rec yds

Perhaps the shocker on Sunday came the earliest with the Week 3 arrival of Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis (a forgotten man in fantasy). The Jags tight end had yet to catch a pass to start the 2017 season and the last time he did catch a pass, dated back to week 11 of the 2016 season (only caught 2 balls that day). That all change on Sunday, Lewis was targeted five times, catching four balls, three for touchdowns; that’s one way to announce yourself to the fantasy world. The Jags offense is very sporadic, so this week 3 performance is not something fantasy owners can hope for to repeat itself anytime soon.

Marcedes Lewis: 4 rec, 62 rec yds, 3 Tds

Ryan Griffin: 5 rec, 61 rec yds, 1 Td

Vernon Davis: 5 rec, 58 rec yds, 1 Td

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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August 25th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

PPR Studs

When it comes to fantasy football, I will play any format, standard, DFS, Head-to-Head, rotisserie style. There’s no question that one of my favorites and one of the most popular is PPR or points-per-reception. In this format players are rewarded with a half-point and a full point (other leagues may vary) for each reception.

In this format, the emphasis is on the pass-catching players, wide receivers, tight ends and these guys, my PPR studs. These will be the guys fantasy owners can count on to see a heavy volume of targets and receptions throughout the season.

Now you have your top tier elite PPR ballers in running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, so these are the backs a couple of tiers down that specialize at the passing game. At the top of my list for such candidates include the new Ravens running back Danny Woodhead. When he was in San Diego, Woodhead was featured in the passing attack. Last season Woodhead’s season was cut short to two games, but back in 2015 when he played all 16, he lead all running backs with 106 targets and tied for the most receptions with 80. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue in recent years, no question he’s a PPR stud.

Another capable pass-catcher out of the backfield includes the Lions running back Theo Riddick. In 2015 Riddick tied with Woodhead with 80 receptions (on 99 targets) to lead all running backs and again in  2016 he was a top 10 running back in targets with 67. Despite only touching the ball 159 times last season, Riddick still finished as the number 25 running back in PPR.

Without a doubt and up and comer in the PPR fantasy world is the Browns 2nd year running back Duke Johnson. The kid out of Miami University has proven to be excellent out of the backfield totaling 74 targets in each of his first two seasons finishing with 114 receptions, finishing only behind Theo Riddick (133 receptions), Devonta Freeman (127 receptions), and David Johnson (116 receptions) over that same span. The word is Duke is expected to be even more involved this season; can you say upside.

Now this back is a bit of sneaky play and one you can likely get at great value. The Jets running back Bilal Powell is coming off the board around the 6th round as the RB28 (according to FFC). Over the past season Powell has seen 137 targets and hauled in 105 balls, making him a prime value PPR play at his current ADP. The Jets are in rebuild mode and there’s just not much there right now, even with the presence of Matt Forte. Last season Powell saw 205 touches finishing as the number RB16 in PPR; would not surprise to see him equal of increase his touches in 2017.

Okay, with all of that shared and said, one more.

Perhaps a sleeper or some great late round value with the Giants running back Shane Vereen. There’s been nothing said or reported recently that should have anyone believing Vereen won’t be a part of the offense this season. Vereen has a current ADP of 13.07, coming off the board around the 13th round as the RB58. Vereen missed a lot of time last season which is likely why he is the forgotten man in New York, but back in 2015 he played in all 16 games finishing with 81 targets, 59 receptions, and a total of 120 touches; not a huge volume but good enough for Vereen to finish as the RB26 (flex play territory). Savvy Owners will be looking at him in the later rounds.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 9th, 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

Draft Watch: Eyeing the Backfield

In this year’s draft, like most from past fantasy seasons, there are your notable stud running backs (DJ, Bell, Zeke, & Shady) that everyone will target. They are no secret and if you have a high draft slot you’ll be in the market to make a grab.

You’ll hear this alot and I’ll say it here as well, when drafting beyond the obvious picks what you should be looking for in your draft is “value.” It’s not just who you take, but when you take them. Reaching too early can cost you a lot of value at the top and reaching too late you’ll miss out on those players that will pay huge dividends throughout the season.

After the first round (in the early rounds), running backs that are not too early to reach for in my opinion are DeMarco Murray (Titans), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Jordan Howard (Bears), Todd Gurley (Rams), and Leonard Fournette (Jaguars). With this group, what I like best about them is their potential volume. None have a real threat in the backfield to steal their workload. Ajayi looks very appealing with the recent change at quarterback and Fournette is expected to be a workhorse.

Once you hit the mid-rounds (round 4 and on), in particular in PPR formats, pass catching running backs that I like and should reap plenty of rewards are Danny Woodhead (Ravens), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), Paul Perkins (Giants), and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers). I see most of these guys going in the 5th and 6th rounds as early RB3 with some potential as an RB2. I believe Woodhead could set the bar for receptions this season and even as a rookie I believe McCaffrey could make a run at 65 to 70 catches.

The late round fliers that will come cheap and could pay-off big in my estimation are running backs Theo Riddick (Lions), Duke Johnson (Browns), Giovani Bernard (Bengals), and James White (Patriots). As late as these guys could be had, even with only 40-45 catches, they are a great value as a flex options and bye week fills.

A couple of names that are being undervalued that owners should be able to snag at a great price are the Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (ADP 94.3), Ravens running back Terrance West (ADP 83), and Jets running back Matt Forte (ADP 105.7). Now these guys may not win your league, but they are low risk with potential.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega