FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Fantasy Football Week 8

Eight weeks into fantasy football and now's the time to make bold moves, smart decisions, and decisive choices to secure your playoff slot or turn your season around. Now that we are just beyond the mid-point, these are a couple of moves I am making this week in my season-long redraft leagues.

“Pick-of-the-litter"

WR-Kenny Stills, Texans; With starting wide receiver Will Fuller (knee) out for a couple of games, Kenny Stills should slide into a starting role. Stills joined the team just before the start of the regular season, and in the short time has already shown a connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Injuries have slowed down Stills 2019 campaign, but he’s healthy and should be ready to go to fill in nicely for Fuller. Stills is coming off injury and in his first game back posted a 4-catch, 105 receiving yard effort on 5 targets. With Fuller sidelined, he should see a significant boost in targets and production over the coming weeks.

Dumpster-ville

RB-Duke Johnson, Texans; For fantasy football purposes only, I have dropped running back Duke Johnson (Fantasy RB36). With Carlos Hyde cemented as the team’s primary early down back, Johnson is not seeing enough work to hold onto, let alone insert into a lineup. In PPR scoring (1pt per reception), since week 2 his games are as follows; 3.1, 2.4, 7.8, 6.7, 11.4, and 5.6 (6.2 average). With this kind of production, he’s a low value flex at best, and probably not worth holding on limited roster sizes.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Night Edition

August 14th, 2019

The First Class of Fantasy

Sometimes it seems like the quarterback position is treated like a first class citizen, in comparison to other positions on the field. They are without question, the most protected and rightfully so.

Rather than posting my complete list of all starting quarterbacks, I’ll just share my thoughts about a couple of the QB1’s for 2019.

At the top of my list for this fantasy season is the Texans starter, (MR#1 QB) Deshaun Watson. He’s a very good passer and dynamic player. With the weapons surrounding him in Houston, such as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and with the addition of running back Duke Johnson, Watson should deliver big numbers this season.

Landing in my top five this season is none other than Mr. Quarterback, (MR#3 QB) Aaron Rodgers. The Packers signal caller’s numbers were down a bit last season, but we know he played through injury. This season, a healthy Rodgers will have an opportunity to recapture his crown as the best QB in the league and fantasy.

I like (MR#8 QB) Mr. Baker Mayfield this season, as do many other fantasy enthusiasts, but I am not over the top with my excitement. The Browns quarterback had a very positive rookie campaign last season and with the addition of an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr, his second year looks very promising. I, however will temper my expectations some and remain grounded, as Mayfield was the number 16 fantasy QB in total points last season, so Top-10 is still trending in the right direction. 

My last notable for the evening is the final quarterback to make my preseason QB1 status, (MR#12 QB) Jameis Winston. Last season the Buccaneers quarterback finished strong in the 2nd half of the season, and all the whispers I keep hearing on the radio shows and popular podcasts suggest, this could be a big season for Winston; he does have some nice weapons.

My QB1’s list

1.Deshaun Watson

2.Patrick Mahomes

3.Aaron Rodgers

4.Andrew Luck

5.Matt Ryan

6.Carson Wentz

7.Cam Newton

8.Baker Mayfield

9.Drew Brees

10.Russell Wilson

11.Jarod Goff

12.Jameis Winston

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 10 Injury Takes

RB-Jeremy Hill (ankle); The Bengals placed Hill on the Injured Reserve ending his season. For fantasy owners, this changes little. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has been the lead backs for weeks, but will now also pick up short yardage and goal-line duties increasing his long term fantasy value.

WR-Will Fuller (knee); the Texans wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Fuller will be a go for Sunday, but faces a tough matchup against a stingy Rams defense allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Watson out and Savage in, Fuller’s shine has dimmed significantly; he’s a borderline WR3/4 this week.

TE-Delanie Walker (ankle); the Titan’s tight is listed as questionable and could be a huge risky play this week for owners. Walker played through the injury last week and even though he’ll be at less than 100 percent (if he goes), he’s still in line to see a healthy dose of snaps. Walker remains a TE1 this week.

WR-Julio Jones (ankle); the Falcons wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Jones will be all-systems-go on Sunday and a must-start against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-Dez Bryant (ankle); the Cowboys playmaking receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday, but looks like he’ll be out there on Sunday. The Falcons have been pretty good against opposing receivers, but with the Cowboys minus Zeke, Sunday could become more of the Dez and Dak show.

WR-Chris Hogan (shoulder); the Patriots wide receiver has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Bronco’s No Fly Zone defense. With Hogan out, this should open more opportunities for both Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.

RB-Matt Forte (knee); the Jets running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte sidelined, Bilal Powell a borderline RB1 this week should handle lead duties, but Elijah McGuire will also figure in the mix as a low-end flex and DFS flier.

WR-Michael Thomas (ankle); the Saints receiver is not listed on team’s injury report. Thomas has been steady this season, but not spectacular. The Saints are away this week at Buffalo, with Thomas being a low-end WR2 against a Bills secondary that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-TY Hilton (groin); the Colts wide receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday against the Steelers. While Hilton is expected to play, he’ll be a huge risk option with the potential for a setback; owners should proceed with caution.

WR-Stefon Diggs (tooth); the Vikings wide receiver was not listed on the team’s final injury report. Diggs will be on the field Sunday drawing lots of attention from the Redskins Josh Norman, which could open up some opportunities for Adam Thielen.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 3rd 2017

Friday evening Edition

Diamonds in the Rough

Looking ahead to Sunday, although we are in week 9, we are still only in week 9 and options do exist for fantasy owners looking for help and trying to find those weekly gems.

As the bye weeks continue here a couple of Week 9 hidden gems that could be interesting plays on Sunday;

QB-Tom Savage; the loss of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is devastating, but it doesn't have to be the end of the Texans or fantasy owners. The offense is still loaded with some talent and playing with confidence. It's a long shot, but with players like Fuller, Hopkins, and Miller still available this week Savage could be a diamond in the rough this week. He has a favorable matchup against a defense that has allowed 12 passing touchdowns (5th most), 290.4 yards passing per game (2nd most), and the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

RB-Marlon Mack; after a week 6 setback (in usage), the Colts rookie runner has seen his involvement in the offense trend upward with 9 touches in week 7 and 14 touches in week 8. Mack has also seen snap count increase with 48 in week 7 and 39 in week 8 (led the backfield both weeks). In 3 of his last 4 games, he's also scored in double-digit fantasy points. While the Texans have been lock down against the run this season, one stat worth noting, rookies this season have had success; Fournette in Week 1 and Hunt in Week 5.

WR-Devin Funchess; with the departure of Benjamin, the time is now for Funchess to arrive. The Panthers receiver has been fine thus far this season, although over his last three games he's managed only single digits in fantasy scoring. Through 8 weeks, Funchess leads the team in targets and receptions, but was outscored by Benjamin (his primary hurdle to more opportunity). Funchess should see a big uptick in targets and scoring opportunities going forward and with the potential for increased production he's got a great shot at moving from the No.30 fantasy receiver (PPR) to Top 20.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 4th, 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 4 Sunday Heroes

Not-the-Usual Suspects 

This is a late look back at some of Sunday's top performances from the guys you might not have been expecting. Did these guys help you? Whether they did or didn't doesn't matter now. They may not have been the usual suspects leading into week 4, but you'll be watching for their names leading into week 5 and beyond.

The return to the fantasy spotlight this week goes to Giants quarterback Eli Manning. With the talent at receiver he has this season, an athletic tight end, Shane Vereen out of the backfield, we'd surely expect to see Manning's name. Such has not been the case for a while, so his appearance is a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. It is concerning though, he had to heave the pigskin 49 times though. Nonetheless a big week 4 for Eli with 288 yards passing, two passing touchdowns, and a rare rushing touchdown.

Last season Rams quarterback Jared Goff was not considered a viable fantasy option at any time. Nowadays, the 2nd year passer is making a case to be on rosters. He's continued his steady play and currently resides as the No.10 fantasy QB after passing for 255 yards with two touchdowns in a week 4 win over the Cowboys. Goff tops our list of signal callers for Week 4;

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: 255 pa yds, 2 tds

Eli Manning: 288 pa yds, 2 tds, 1 ru td

Andy Dalton: 286 pa yds, 4 tds

Deshaun Watson: 283 pa yds, 4 tds, 1 ru td

Maybe it's not usual to expect big games from running back Andre Ellington, but fantasy owners may have to get used to it. Each week Ellington has seen his touches increase and each week he has responded. In Week 4 Ellington fnished as the No.12 fantasy RB (in PPR) totaling 104 yards with 9 catches.

The Eagles newest battering ram running back LaGarrette Blount finally got rolling in Week 4. In the pass happy league that the NFL has become, Blount is more of a one trick pony sticking to the ground game. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, Blount has barely been able to pull his engine out of the garage totaling just 113 yards rushing. On Sunday Blount carried the ball 16 times and rushed for 136 yards (8.5 yards per carry average) adding a rushing touchdown and a 20-yard reception.

A very notable add to this list is the Saints rookie running back Alvin Kamara. It's quite evident the Saints love this kid and he's getting on the field regularly. He's been steady through the first quarter of the season and on Sunday he finished as the No.6 fantasy RB (in PPR). He's locked in a timeshare, but he's the Saint running back to own. Through 4 weeks he's the No.24 fantasy RB, 5 spots ahead of started Mark Ingram.

Running backs

Andre Ellington: 18 ru yds, 9 rec, 86 rec yds

LeGarrette Blount: 136 ru yds, 20-yd rec, 1 td

Giovani Bernard: 12 ru yds, 3 rec, 67 rec yds, 1 td

Duke Johnson: 13 ru yds, 9 rec, 47 rec yds, 1 td

Elijah McGuire: 93 ru yds, 2 rec, 38 rec yds, 1 td

Alvin Kamara:25 ru yds, 10 rec, 71 rec yds, 1 td

Bilal Powell: 163 ru yds, 4 rec, 27 rec yds, 1 td

A big surprise appearance this week comes from the Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace and for two reasons. First, we haven't seen much from Wallace this season, so this Week 4 appearance is eyebrow raising. The second reason is because how poorly the Ravens offense has played thus far this season. So don't get used to seeing him return often.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: 5 rec, 60 rec yds, 1 td

Mike Wallace: 6 rec, 55 yds, 1 td

Will Fuller: 4 rec, 35 yds, 2 tds

Tyrell Williams: 5 rec, 115 rec yds, 1 td

The interesting suspect at tight end this week is the Bengals Tyler Kroft. Their normal tight end usually plays fairly active in the passing game each week and with Eifert out for a few weeks Kroft may become a return visitor. His Week 4 performance of 6 catches for  68 yards and two scores earned him a trip here and put him on top of all fantasy tight ends this week.

Tight Ends

OJ Howard: 2 rec, 63 rec yds, 1 td

AJ Derby: 4 rec, 75 rec yds, 1 td

Cameron Brate: 4 rec, 80 rec yds, 1 td

Tyler Kroft: 6 rec, 68 rec yds, 2 tds

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 3rd, 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

Weekly Waiver Wire

(Week 5)

As long as injuries continue to play a big part of this game (and they always will), you can always count on the weekly waiver wire for the latest grabs, takes, and finds. Another week of action and we have another full slate of available waiver options for fantasy owners needing to fill a few holes, patch a couple of leaks, and give their week 5 lineup a lift.

QB-Deshaun Watson (Streaming option/roster worthy) Through four weeks, all we've seen Watson do is shoot up the fantasy rankings to the No.7 spot among quarterbacks. He's accounted for 9 scores and has gone 2-1 as a starter; and this is important. His overall team success is his ticket to staying on the field and remaining. Let's face it the kid's electric and ain't going no where. He's worth the add, if you can spare the spot and going forward look for the matchups and just keep watching. Watson has star power and who knows, we may quickly find out he's really a superhero and has super powers.

QB-Jared Goff (QB2/streaming option) I've mentioned his name before and if he's still available it's time to add Goff to your roster. Through 4 weeks the Rams signal caller is the No.10 fantasy quarterback. You may still not be ready to start him, but with quarterbacks like Matt, Ryan and Kirk Cousins on bye this week, Goff is not a bad fill-in option. He's got the Seahawsk next, and their defense has not handle quarterbacks over 500 (allowing over 17 fantasy points per game) as well as those under.

RB-Latavius Murray (borderline RB3/4) It's too early to anoint Murray as a fantasy starter, but he should be playable in some formats due to the expected volume he'll see. With rookie runner Dalvin Cook (ACL) done for the season, Murray should move into the starting role he was expected to inherit when he came to Minnesota. Murray who had off-season ankle surgery has seen little action this season, so this week will be his first big test and a tough one on the road against the Bears No.6 ranked run defense.

RB-Wendell Smallwood (RB3/RB4) The Eagles running back will earn all of his value in PPR. LeGarrette Blount has emerged as the team's lead horse on the ground and Smallwood showed on Sunday he can step into the Darren Sproles role snagging 4 of 6 targets for 45 yards. Smallwood also added another 34 yards on 10 carries with a score. If he can see touches in the 12-14 range each week, not only is he an RB3 option, but he'll have flex appeal.

RB-Wayne Gallman (RB4/roster consideration) It's going to be tough to give Gallman much more value than an RB4/RB5, considering how awful the Giants running game has been (ranked 30th in the league). If you are a Paul Perkins owner or at this point a former owner, Gallman may be the ideal replacement since the Giants may be leaning that way as well. He did show more on Sunday, than what we've seen from Perkins all season. Gallman rushed for 42 yards on 11 carries and added a pair of grabs including a receiving touchdown.

WR-Will Fuller (WR3/WR4) If you were savvy enough to add Fuller last week based on the news of his return, kudos to you. If you played him last week, well double down on that kudos. Fuller came back big in week 4 managing 4 catches for 35 yards and two touchdowns. Not a lot of yards there, but the scores were huge. With the number one receiver (Hopkins) on the other side, Fuller is going to face lesser talented corners and will have a chance to build on these numbers. With struggling receivers like Jamison Crowder, Sammy Watkins, and Demaryius Thomas, Fuller could be nice piece to add this week.

WR-Devin Funchess (WR4/flex option) With the bye weeks starting this Sunday, we're going to have a few studs shelved every week for the next several. Funchess could be a nice add to cover these voids. Last Sunday's performance (7 catches on 9 targets) could be a big indication of what to expect going forward. With tight end Greg Olsen on the injured reserve and not expected to return for at least six weeks, the passing game is missing that go-to option. Kelvin Benjamin hasn't been that answer so far and last week Funchess, who leads the team in catches (17) and yards (216) stepped up big with 70 yards receiving and two touchdowns.

TE-Tyler Kroft (TE2/bye week fill) Someone in Cincinnati besides AJ Green has to catch the ball. With Tyler Eifert expected to miss several weeks, the job will be Krofts for the time being. Last Sunday the 3rd year tight end took advantage posting a line of 6/68/2. His week 4 production out-did Eifert’s season contribution. It's a lot of hype for Kroft yes and this week does not look like a great matchup, but other than Carolina the Bills defense has not faced a team that features their tight end. I actually like Kroft this week; he's worth a waiver claim.

Keep On Your Radar

The Seahawks will be making a change at running back this week with the loss of rookie Chris Carson. The one to watch will be the early favorite to take the reins, Thomas Rawls. This will be Rawls first action since week 2, when he carried the ball just 5 times for 4 yards. It will be interesting to see how all of the running backs shake out and how Rawls handles the starting duties (if he gets the nod). Rawls struggles last season playing in only 9 games, so it's been a while since we’ve seen him showcase what he can do. Hopefully for him and fantasy owners he can capture some of his 2015 magic, and this week lines up as a good matchup against the Rams 30th ranked run defense.

Another one to watch is the Broncos young tight end AJ Derby. Last Sunday he showed off a little of receiving skill with a highlight worthy one-handed catch for a touchdown. Derby has not been an integral part of the Broncos passing game in the team's first three games, but on Sunday offensive coordinator Mike McCoy got him more involved. Derby was targeted 6 times (equaling his first three week total), turning the opportunity into 4 receptions for 75 yards and a score; good enough for the No.4 fantasy tight end for the week. The Broncos are on the bye this week, but keep an eye out for Derby going forward.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 24th, 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Stock Watch

Stock Rising

With running back Danny Woodhead going down for the season, 2nd year back Melvin Gordon is likely to see his workload increase. He's off to a strong so far with 38 carries for 159 rushing yards to go with his 3 grabs for 18 yards. Owners can expect to see more Gordon going forward, as long as he can stay healthy he's a fantasy stock on the rise.

Like Gordon, the Lions running back Theo Riddick could see a significant spike in his workload and production with starter Ameer Abdullah expected to miss some time. While Riddick is not a big back, or built for between the tackles, the Lions friendly short passing game is a great fit for him. In the two games he has 9 receptions on 10 targets and with more time on the field those numbers could spike. He's a great PPR play and could offer some 

Heading into week 3, the Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller had a lot of flavor, but fantasy owners may want to stick to just just sipping the kool aid for now until we see more, especially after Thursday night's disappointing performance. Fuller shot out of the gate like a hot stock on the rise with two consecutive 100 yard performances, but cooled off against the Patriots. The rookie is still seeing plenty of opportunities with 7 targets on Thursday night, so this is a fluid stock that has great upside.

After missing all of the 2015 season, it looks like Raven's tight end Dennis Pitta could be back to his old form. He's coming off a huge productive Sunday with 9 catches off 12 targets for 102 yards. The big athletic tight end has had past success with current quarterback Joe Flacco and with his return this season, he could finish as a TE1 by season's end. Pitta is definitely a fantasy stock on the rise.

This is tight end Jacob Tamme's second season with the Falcons. With all the changes at the wide receiver position and lack of experience, the veteran tight end could see himself vulturing a lot of opportunities in the pass game. Through the first two weeks he's averaging 8 targets per game, most on the team and his 11 receptions also leads the teams passing game. For the moment, Tamme looks like a solid stock trend on the upside.

Stock Falling

The Dolphins veteran runner Arian Foster is coming off a serious injury from a year ago and with a history of being banged up, his prognosis for staying healthy does not look good. Already slated to miss Sunday Week 3, Foster stock is sliding fast.

The Chiefs running back, Jamaal Charles looks like he could be active this Sunday, but having missed the first two games and coming off a torn ACL from a year ago, fantasy owners should keep their expectations in check. Charles could see action, but there's no question right now, at best he'll be sharing duties with running back Spence Ware. Charles stock, for the price likely paid in most drafts is over-valued until we see something worthy of an early round draft pick.

Through two weeks, the Lions wide receiver Golden Tate has seen plenty of targets with 16, but his 9 receptions has only accounted for 54 yards. He's definitely an active target in the short passing game, unfortunately for owners he's not doing much after the catch and until that changes, his stock will continue to fall.

The Steelers wide receiver Marcus Wheaton has yet to see any action this season, but does look like he could be on the field this Sunday. Lets roll him out on the trading floor and see what he can do against the Eagles on Sunday, before we buy into any of stock. For now his value is flatlining.

That's my take for Week 3

~David G. Ortega