FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 10 Injury Takes

RB-Jeremy Hill (ankle); The Bengals placed Hill on the Injured Reserve ending his season. For fantasy owners, this changes little. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has been the lead backs for weeks, but will now also pick up short yardage and goal-line duties increasing his long term fantasy value.

WR-Will Fuller (knee); the Texans wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Fuller will be a go for Sunday, but faces a tough matchup against a stingy Rams defense allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Watson out and Savage in, Fuller’s shine has dimmed significantly; he’s a borderline WR3/4 this week.

TE-Delanie Walker (ankle); the Titan’s tight is listed as questionable and could be a huge risky play this week for owners. Walker played through the injury last week and even though he’ll be at less than 100 percent (if he goes), he’s still in line to see a healthy dose of snaps. Walker remains a TE1 this week.

WR-Julio Jones (ankle); the Falcons wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Jones will be all-systems-go on Sunday and a must-start against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-Dez Bryant (ankle); the Cowboys playmaking receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday, but looks like he’ll be out there on Sunday. The Falcons have been pretty good against opposing receivers, but with the Cowboys minus Zeke, Sunday could become more of the Dez and Dak show.

WR-Chris Hogan (shoulder); the Patriots wide receiver has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Bronco’s No Fly Zone defense. With Hogan out, this should open more opportunities for both Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.

RB-Matt Forte (knee); the Jets running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte sidelined, Bilal Powell a borderline RB1 this week should handle lead duties, but Elijah McGuire will also figure in the mix as a low-end flex and DFS flier.

WR-Michael Thomas (ankle); the Saints receiver is not listed on team’s injury report. Thomas has been steady this season, but not spectacular. The Saints are away this week at Buffalo, with Thomas being a low-end WR2 against a Bills secondary that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-TY Hilton (groin); the Colts wide receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday against the Steelers. While Hilton is expected to play, he’ll be a huge risk option with the potential for a setback; owners should proceed with caution.

WR-Stefon Diggs (tooth); the Vikings wide receiver was not listed on the team’s final injury report. Diggs will be on the field Sunday drawing lots of attention from the Redskins Josh Norman, which could open up some opportunities for Adam Thielen.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 3)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Javorius Allen (start) Just like last week, Buck Allen is a start for Week 3 against the Jaguars. He may not do too much treading on the ground, but his pass catching skills will help his value this week. Allen is expected to pick up the load if running back Terrance West is limited or slowed.

Tyrod Taylor (sit) The Bills quarterback has an awful matchup this week facing the Broncos No Fly Zone defense. The Denver defense hasn’t been exactly seal tight, but they seen some pretty good skill position players at the receiver spot (like Dez Bryant and Keenan Allen), something Taylor is lacking. Sit the Bills quarterback.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Saints are in town and that means lots of yards all around. The Saints have allowed an avalanche of yards passing and rushing in their first two games. Time for Benjamin owners to reap the rewards of this matchup. Start the Panthers wide out.

Jordan Howard (sit) The Bears starting running back is off to a slow start this season and things may not get any better on Sunday. Howard will line up against the Steelers 8th ranked run defense that allow just 3.3 yards per tote. Sit him.

Ameer Abdullah (start) In what should be a matchup filled with a lot of points on both sides, I really like Abdullah to see a fair amount of carries and overall touches in this matchup. The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per carry, start Abdullah.

Jack Doyle (start) The Colts tight end is the No.13 fantasy TE currently. With a matchup against the Browns defense that’s allowed the most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, expect Doyle to improve his ranking.

Jacquizz Rodgers (sit) The Vikings defense allows the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and overall they are ranked 11th against the run allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. I don’t like Rodgers in this matchup, sit him.

Mike Gillislee (start) The Patriots running back played more of a featured role last week with 18 carries and a score. The Texans will be tested in the air by quarterback Tom Brady and his bunch, which should open up a few running lanes for Gillislee. He’s sure to get one of those easy scores as well.

Jermaine Kearse (start) The Jets receiver has been busy through two weeks, ranked as the No.7 fantasy WR. Kearse has been targeted 14 times in two games and figures to see a steady diet of targets on Sunday against the Fins; a defense that’s allowed a 73% efficiency rate for opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall (sit) The Giants number 3 receiver has been non-existent through two weeks and shouldn’t be trusted at this point. Marshall has caught just two passes and looks completely out of sync with quarterback Eli Manning right now. Sit him.

Derrick Henry (start) Let me start with, sit DeMarco Murray. The writing's on the wall for this one anyway. Even if Murray is active, he is likely to play second fiddle. Henry ran like a beast last week totaling 92 yards on the ground and he should get the Lionshare Sunday against the Seahawks 23rd ranked run defense that allows 5.2 yards per carry.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The team axed their Offensive Coordinator and head Coach Marvin Lewis has to be feeling the heat. Expect a lot of changes, including the usage of or lack of usage for running back Jeremy Hill. There are whispers this week we could see more of the rookie running back Joe Mixon. Hill’s a risky play, pass on him this week.

Hunter Henry (start) The Chargers tight end finally got some work in week 2 and turned in a nice stat line of 7/80/0. Henry caught all seven of his targets last week and could be just as busy Sunday against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the 6th most receiving yards against opposing tight ends. Start Henry.

Samaje Perine (start) Starter Rob Kelley has been ruled out, so the rookie will get the nod. Start him. The Raiders are ranked 19th versus the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Perine should get plenty of run in the backfield Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting (Week 1)

Start or Sit

Charles Clay (start) The Bills tight end has a nice matchup against a Jets secondary that ranked 9th worst against opposing tight ends last season and allowed 10 touchdowns. He’s a low TE1 this week.

Kendall Wright (start) The Bears wide out will likely fill a familiar role in the offense this season and goes up against a Falcons secondary that ranked 10th worst against opposing receivers and allowed the 6th most receptions. He’s a nice flex this week.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The Bengals appear to have a bit of a convoluted backfield this season and add that they face a Ravens defense that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and I am inclined to stay away.

Martavis Bryant (start) The Steelers wide receiver could have a juicy match up this week playing alongside with Antonio Brown. Add the Browns secondary allowed 20 touchdowns to opposing receivers last season and Bryant is favorite flex this week.

John Brown (start) The Cardinals wide receiver has been working hard to get healthy and back to form and in the team’s third preseason game he showed what he’s capable of when healthy with two scores. Sunday he’ll take on a Lions secondary that allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers and 20 receiving touchdowns in 2016. Brown is another favorite for a flex play this week.

Leonard Fournette (sit) The Jags passing offense really struggled in the preseason which makes me believe the rookie runner is going to see a lot of 8 and 9 man in the box this season. Fournette will also be facing a Texans defense that returns JJ Watt and allowed the 11 fewest rushing yards a season ago. It’s going to be a long day for Fournette on Sunday.

Marshawn Lynch (sit) A lot of folks are excited about the return of Beast Mode, but fantasy owners may want to temper their expectations this Sunday. Lynch and Raiders will face a Titans defense that allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. You may have to start him because of where he was drafted, but if you have options you may want to consider.

Terrelle Pryor (start) The Redskins newest big target has a tasty matchup on Sunday facing an Eagles secondary that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. In the matchup I start Pryor and believe he’s got a great shot to score.

Sammy Watkins (sit) The Rams newest receiver may have a difficult time finding the end zone on Sunday. The Rams offense sputtered through the preseason and even with a Colts secondary missing cornerback Vontae Davis, the Rams are likely to run the ball a lot. Watkins could be tough sit on Sunday, but if you have to play him, it could be a long day.

Tyler Lockett (start) The Seahawks travel to Green Bay and like the recent heat wave in Southern California, Lockett could get hot on Sunday against a secondary that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Lockett is not likely to see a large volume of targets, but he could get loose on a long one which is why I like him as a flex start.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Panthers wide out has looked sharp this preseason and should be peppered with bunch of targets on Sunday. He’ll face a Niners secondary that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s a mid WR2 start for me.

Paul Perkins (sit) The Cowboys were very good against the run a year ago allowing the second fewest yards rushing and the 4th fewest fantasy points. Perkins is going to have a tough time running against the Boys on Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

November 1st, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 9 Starts

My Favorites for Sunday

It’s more of the same this week, but with six teams on bye it could be slim pickings for some fantasy owners unless you have managed the waiver wire well and paid close attention to the injury reports. I can’t say I drafted too well this season, but fortunately this late heavy bye week has not impacted my teams too greatly.

With that said, if you are not so lucky and looking for some help this Sunday these are the plays I like;

QB-Colin Kaepernick

The Niners quarterback has a nice matchup at home against the Rams (4^th most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks) this week. Kaepernick faced this same defense back in week 6 recording his only 300-yard passing game of the season and his best fantasy performance of the season. He’s a very good week 9 bye-week fill.

QB-Russell Wilson

With a home game on the slate this week, quarterback Russell Wilson will square up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed better than a 70% completion percentage this season. Wilson has typically been solid at home this season, averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game in his last two starts. He should be another solid week 9 bye-week fill.

RB-Bobby Rainey

The Buccaneers are on the road this week, visiting Cleveland. With starter Doug Martin doubtful for Sunday, it’s an opportunity for running back Bobby Rainey to take the reins in the backfield. Rainey should see the bulk of the workload and has proven to be an effective pass-receiving back out of the backfield; it also helps that the Browns defense has allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. He has potential for a bigger game, but I consider him a low-end RB2 or flex this week.

RB-Jeremy Hill

Like the Bucs, the Bengals are dealing with injuries in their backfield. With running back Giovanni Bernard likely shelved for Sunday, rookie Jeremy Hill will get the chance to carry the load. Hill will lead the ground attack against the Jaguars rush defense that allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and nearly 4-yards a carry. He should see plenty of work on Sunday to be a solid RB2.

WR-Anquan Boldin

With quarterback Colin Kaepernick facing a favorable matchup on Sunday, wide receiver Anquan Boldin is in line for a productive day. Boldin has been the favorite in the pass game averaging nearly eight targets per start this season. In his last two starts he has a total of 19 targets and with them 14 receptions, 144 yards receiving, and a score. He’s a low-end WR2 or strong flex this week.

WR-Dwayne Bowe

The Chiefs top receiver has been quiet most of the season, but over his past two games Bowe has been targeted 13 times catching 11 balls for 148 yards. On Sunday he will face the Jets secondary that has allowed the 6^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s a safe WR3 or flex play this week.

Week 9 Sleepers

TE-Jace Amaro

The Jets offense has been woeful this season, but there may be a few bright spots worth noting and one is tight end Jace Amaro. He’s not exactly a fantasy superstar, but this could be a week where we see more of what he’s capable of doing. In his last three starts Amaro has become more involved in the pass game with 23 targets (and 18 receptions). Last week with the change at quarterback Amaro caught five balls on five targets from Michael Vick (who will start on Sunday). With a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows the 10^th most fantasy points, including 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, Amaro could see a few more balls in his direction with Vick under center. He’s a risky play at best, but in a desperate situation he has promise.

That’s my take for week 9.

~David Ortega