FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Decemeber 10th 2016
Saturday Morning Edition

Week 14 Fantasy Notes

Taking a look at this week’s quarterback position presents it’s own challenges and dilemmas with so much at stake. Do you ride with what has gotten you there, or do you read the numbers and play the matchups? Decisions, decisions...

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a hot fantasy prospect much of the season. Slotting in as the number 3 scoring quarterback Ryan has been a regular weekly start’em, but such has not been the case of late. In his first nine games this season, Ryan topped the 20 fantasy points marker six times. 

In his last three starts Ryan has yet to reach 19 fantasy points (standard scoring) and with a banged up wide receiver Julio Jones, the prospects don’t look good. This week will also present a difficult matchup on the road facing a tough Rams defense. The Rams defense has not been invincible this season ranking at 12th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season and they have also been shredded the past two weeks allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. At best Ryan is a questionable, but safe start (if you can afford to be safe).

On the other hand, if you need to swing for the fences and can throw caution to the wind Colin Kapaernick may be the play for you this week. The Niners signal caller is coming off one of his worst performances on the field and statistically; 1 for 5 passing for 4 yards and just 20 yards rushing. In fairness conditions were atrocious in the Windy City (Chicago), but just the same this type of performance is concerning for fantasy owners.

The good news for Kap owners and fans, the Niners are home and coming to town are the lowly New York Jets. The Jets are coming off a woeful Monday night showing against the Colts where quarterback Andrew Luck and company made mincemeat of their secondary. Luck completed 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four touchdowns; this followed a week 12 performance from Patriots quarterback Tom Brady who passed for 286 yards with two touchdowns. 

The prospects of a good Sunday are there for Kapaernick and the weather should not be a factor. Play him over quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, and Marcus Mariota at your own risk. With options like Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, I am sticking with my starters.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

November 1st, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 9 Starts

My Favorites for Sunday

It’s more of the same this week, but with six teams on bye it could be slim pickings for some fantasy owners unless you have managed the waiver wire well and paid close attention to the injury reports. I can’t say I drafted too well this season, but fortunately this late heavy bye week has not impacted my teams too greatly.

With that said, if you are not so lucky and looking for some help this Sunday these are the plays I like;

QB-Colin Kaepernick

The Niners quarterback has a nice matchup at home against the Rams (4^th most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks) this week. Kaepernick faced this same defense back in week 6 recording his only 300-yard passing game of the season and his best fantasy performance of the season. He’s a very good week 9 bye-week fill.

QB-Russell Wilson

With a home game on the slate this week, quarterback Russell Wilson will square up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed better than a 70% completion percentage this season. Wilson has typically been solid at home this season, averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game in his last two starts. He should be another solid week 9 bye-week fill.

RB-Bobby Rainey

The Buccaneers are on the road this week, visiting Cleveland. With starter Doug Martin doubtful for Sunday, it’s an opportunity for running back Bobby Rainey to take the reins in the backfield. Rainey should see the bulk of the workload and has proven to be an effective pass-receiving back out of the backfield; it also helps that the Browns defense has allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. He has potential for a bigger game, but I consider him a low-end RB2 or flex this week.

RB-Jeremy Hill

Like the Bucs, the Bengals are dealing with injuries in their backfield. With running back Giovanni Bernard likely shelved for Sunday, rookie Jeremy Hill will get the chance to carry the load. Hill will lead the ground attack against the Jaguars rush defense that allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and nearly 4-yards a carry. He should see plenty of work on Sunday to be a solid RB2.

WR-Anquan Boldin

With quarterback Colin Kaepernick facing a favorable matchup on Sunday, wide receiver Anquan Boldin is in line for a productive day. Boldin has been the favorite in the pass game averaging nearly eight targets per start this season. In his last two starts he has a total of 19 targets and with them 14 receptions, 144 yards receiving, and a score. He’s a low-end WR2 or strong flex this week.

WR-Dwayne Bowe

The Chiefs top receiver has been quiet most of the season, but over his past two games Bowe has been targeted 13 times catching 11 balls for 148 yards. On Sunday he will face the Jets secondary that has allowed the 6^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s a safe WR3 or flex play this week.

Week 9 Sleepers

TE-Jace Amaro

The Jets offense has been woeful this season, but there may be a few bright spots worth noting and one is tight end Jace Amaro. He’s not exactly a fantasy superstar, but this could be a week where we see more of what he’s capable of doing. In his last three starts Amaro has become more involved in the pass game with 23 targets (and 18 receptions). Last week with the change at quarterback Amaro caught five balls on five targets from Michael Vick (who will start on Sunday). With a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows the 10^th most fantasy points, including 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, Amaro could see a few more balls in his direction with Vick under center. He’s a risky play at best, but in a desperate situation he has promise.

That’s my take for week 9.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
December 7th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 14 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and this is no time to be second guessing or playing with doubt. This week it’s “Go Big or Go Home” so you better have the right guys in your lineup. Looking over the week 14 matchups, I offer a handful of plays that I favor this Sunday;

Week 14 fantasy help;

Michael Crabtree, WR
The 49ers don’t usually have much for fantasy owners to get excited about on offense, but unlike any other season or earlier in the season with quarterback Colin Kaepernick under center he adds another dimension that can open things up. Since Kaepernick took over the controls of the offense, wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been steadily involved. Last Sunday Crabtree was targeted a season high 11 times; his stat line, 7 receptions for 101 yards. This Sunday the Niners will face the Dolphins 26th ranked defense that allows the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers.  In their last three road games the Dolphins have allowed at least 79 yards to the opposing team’s leading receiver; Crabtree should be a very safe flex option this week. 

Brandon Pettigrew, TE
It’s looking to be a chilly night this Sunday in Lambeau, but even low temperatures won’t stop the Lions passing game from heating up. The Lions pass game is in full throttle and over the team’s past four games tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been targeted heavily (39 times). With injuries to their young receivers (Ryan Broyles and Titus Young), fantasy owners can expect to see Pettigrew even more involved. The Packers secondary does a pretty good job against opposing tight ends, but last season at Lambeau Pettigrew caught 7 balls for 116 yards; this week could be another big game.

Alfred Morris, RB
The Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has found himself another gem in the draft. Many of us knew that RGIII was a great talent with a tremendous upside, but very few knew what the Redskins found when they selected rookie running back Alfred Morris in the 6th round. Morris has been great this season rushing for 1,106 yards with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed the century mark five times this season, including his back-to-back efforts in week 12 and 13. With the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense coming to town, Morris could make it three in a row. He’s averaging 22 carries per game in his last three starts and may not need that many to hit the 100-yard mark this Sunday; play him!

Greg Jennings, WR
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings is just one game back from injury and although his return was less than spectacular, his four grabs for 46 yards were respectable considering. The more important number to note from last week was his 8 targets. This week the Packers will be without wide out Jordy Nelson facing the Lions 18th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners can expect at least as many, if not more targets for Jennings this week and facing a secondary that allows the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, he’s a lock for a more productive week 14. Jennings should be in your lineup somewhere, low WR2 or flex.

Andrew Luck, QB
Quarterback Andrew Luck has been too consistent this season to be lucky; the kid is just good. This week facing the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, fantasy owners can count on the Colts offense riding Luck’s arm; the Colts offense goes through Luck. Not only does Luck lead the way, but this week he gets a defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 24 touchdowns. Coming off a big win in week 13, Luck needs to be in lineups this Sunday for another big performance.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012  

Sunday Morning Gametime

The Falcons will have wide receiver Julio Jones (will start) today, but playing outdoor and a bad wheel (ankle) he could be a risky play. It’s tough to sit Jones with his tremendous upside and big play potential, so proceed with caution.

The Bills running back Fred Jackson is active and expected to play, but Spiller will get the start and should see the lions’ share of the carries today. Jackson is coming off a concussion and with Spiller being as effective as he has been (all season) it’s hard to imagine Jackson getting worked in too much today; Spiller is still the play in the Bills backfield.

Quarterback Jay Cutler is going to start, that’s good news for Brandon Marshall owners. Marshall is clearly Cutler’s favorite and go to receiver, so he’ll see plenty of work today. Marshall is a WR1 with Cutler in the game.

The Niners are going to roll with quarterback Colin Kaepernick. With Kaepernick’s mobility, he adds another dimension to the offense that could help open up things in the pass game. Tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Michael Crabtree would appear to be upgraded options with Kaepernick in the game. 

The Steelers will be without wide receiver Antonio Brown today (ruled OUT). With quarterback Charlie Batch under center expect the Steelers to work the trenches with their ground game. No Brown, no effect, today will be all about the three-headed monster led by running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall.

Just a few notes for today’s games…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

My week 12 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick)
There’s not a lot being said about the Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but going on the road to play the Colts, he’s got a nice matchup. Fitz will face the Colts 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns this season to just four picks. The Colts allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Don’t look for Ftiz to throw for a ton, since Spiller and Jackson should be able to carve into the Colts 21st ranked run defense, but the Bills quarterback should be better than effective in the red zone. He’s a good play today if you don’t have better options.

Running Back (CJ Spiller)
The Bills running back CJ Spiller is going to lose a few carries with the return of Fred Jackson today, but that won’t matter. Heading into today’s contest he’s averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and 14 touches per game. Given the fact Jackson is returning from injury (concussion), the Bills will lean on Spiller and he should deliver solid numbers today. Spiller faces the Colts 21st ranked run defense today that has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns and they allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs. Spiller is a must start and top 10 option today.

Wide Receiver (Michael Crabtree)
The Niners wide receiver Michael Crabtree has not had too many big games this season, but he has been on a roll of late finding the end zone in three straight. With the Saints coming to town, Crabtree will get his shot at one of the league’s worst secondary pass defenses; Saints are ranked 31st in the league and allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is likely no higher than a mid WR2 today, but he has a chance at a big game especially if Kaepernick (starting today) can be as effective as he was last Monday night.

Tight End (Brandon Myers, Oak)
The Raiders are on the road today and running into a hot Bengals team, winners of two straight and 59 points scored in their two wins. This could be one that the Raiders end up playing catch up; enter tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders are already heaving it up almost 50 times per game over their last three and Myeres is seeing an average of 10 targets per game. Myers is averaging 6.3 receptions, 57 yards, and a touchdown in his last three starts. In a game that is likely to see a lot of passing, Myers is a top 10 option this week and should deliver.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

By the Numbers

With the fantasy regular season winding down, it’s time to start looking at your squad for your post season run; do they have what it will take to ride deep into your fantasy playoffs. A good way to measure the value and worthiness of your players are not just performance, but matchups and tendencies will always play a big factor.

At the end of the day, when you are making your decisions who to sit and who to start, one thing you can never get away is breaking down your players by the numbers.

With week 12 under way and the Sunday schedule less than 24 hours away, here are some of my fantasy favorites; By The Numbers…

Quarterback Andy Dalton;
The Bengals are playing host to the Raiders tomorrow and this is one match up I am very fond of; quarterback Andy Dalton versus the Raiders secondary. Dalton is completing nearly 65% of his passes over his last three starts with 7 touchdowns and only one interception; he’s also averaging more than 240 yards passing. This Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that is ranked 24th against the pass (253 yards passing allowed per game), allows the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. Dalton has a premiere wide out in AJ Green and has hooked up with his favorite receiving target for a score in 9 straight games; Sunday will make it 10 straight and a big day of passing for Dalton. Dalton might not be your regular starter in fantasy, but this is one week you  should try to get him in your lineup.

Quarterback Carson Palmer;
The Raiders passing offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer is ranked 7th in the league averaging 288 yards passing per game. Palmer has thrown 40 or more passes in his last three starts and has passed for more than 300 yards in each. Palmer has also thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his past four starts. The Bengals are ranked 14th against the pass and riding a two game winning streak that has put them back into the playoff hunt at 5-5. Playing at home tomorrow they could give some ground in the air to the Raiders in a game that could see the Silver & Black having to work their way out of a big hole; playing from behind could lead to more passing numbers for Palmer. Palmer ranks 6th in the NFL with 3,035 yards passing this season; he’s also thrown 17 touchdowns. He’s a low-end QB option, but worth a start this week in much deeper formats.

Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree;
The Niners passing offense has been limited this season ranked 28th in the league, but could get a lift this Sunday with Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick adds another dimension to the offense that could help open things in the passing game, as it did Monday night against the Bears. Over his last three starts wide receiver Michael Crabtree has managed to find the end zone, with Kaepernick under center (if he starts), Crabtree looks like a good bet to make it four straight. The Niners will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has allowed 21 passing touchdowns. The Saints defense also allows the second highest passer rating to quarterbacks, nearly 64% passes completed, and the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is averaging just 6.5 targets per game, but is making the most of them; he’s a mid-level WR3 and worth starting in most formats.

Tight End Brandon Myers;
The Raiders have been throwing the ball quite a bit their last three games, averaging nearly 49 pass attempts and one of the beneficiaries has been tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders tight end is second on the team with 67 targets this season and is averaging 10 targets in each of the last three games. In his last three starts Myers has totaled 19 receptions, 171 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. With the Raiders on the road, this matchup could be one that sees the team playing catch up and continuing its’ recent trend; this could be good news for fantasy owners. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends; Myers is a top 10 tight end this week and should be in your lineup.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Bryce Brown Slated to Start Monday Night
The Eagles have ruled out LeSean McCoy (concussion) for Monday night and back up rookie running back Bryce Brown will get the start. Brown has seem limited action this season, but filling in as the starter this week could offer some hope to struggling fantasy owners. With rookie quarterback Nick Foles making his second start, the Eagles could rely more on its’ ground game after last week’s struggles in the air. Brown should have some success against the Panther’s 19th ranked run defense that allows over four yards per carry. The Panthers also allow the 11th most fantasy points to running backs.

Spiller Looking for Big Game on Sunday
Running back Fred Jackson is expected to return to action this Sunday against the Colts, but it will be CJ Spiller getting the start. Jackson is returning from a concussion and will likely see limited action. Spiller has the hot hand and could continue his solid play this week facing the Colts 21st ranked run defense. Spiller leads the team with 723 yards on the ground and has added another 336 receiving yards with five total touchdowns (4 rush, 1 receiving). The Colts allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs and have surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns; this is the recipe for a great Sunday.

Foles will Start, Vick Ruled OUT Monday
The Eagles will roll with rookie quarterback Nick Foles on Monday night against the Panthers with Michael Vick (concussion) being ruled OUT. Last week Foles really struggled in the pocket completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions. Foles was harassed all afternoon by the Redskins defense that sacked him four times and forced three fumbles from the rookie. With Foles under center, starting receivers DeSean Jackson (2 catches, 5 yards last week) and Jeremy Maclin (0 catches last week) become huge risky plays this week. The Panthers will bring more pressure this Monday night and only allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Jackson and Maclin should be avoided, if you have other options.

Smith or Kaepernick, Expect Niners to Ride Gore
The move to start quarterback Colin Kaepernick on Sunday against the Saints has not been made official just yet, although all signs indicate he will. Whether the Niners make the move from Alex Smith to Kaepernick this Sunday or not, facing the Saints 32nd ranked run defense the team is likely to feed its running game that features Frank Gore. Gore leads the team with 829 yards rushing this season and quietly ranks 8th in the NFL. The Saints defense this season allow the most rushing yards per game and give up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs; Gore needs to be in all line-ups this Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
November 21st, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Henne Takes Over Starting Duties in Jacksonville
Chad Henne blew up last week for big numbers against a very good Texans defense, now the named starter the rest of the way he’ll have a chance to earn the gig full-time in 2013. The football gods must be smiling down on Henne at the moment with a week 12 matchup against the Titans 26th pass defense. The Titans allow the 6th most fantasy quarterbacks , a good matchup for Henne to continue his hot hand.

Avery Limited, but Looks Like He Will Play Sunday
The Colts receiver Donnie Avery is returning from a concussion suffered on Sunday. With his early return to the practice field, all signs for the moment point toward his playing this week against the Bills. Avery has been the team’s predominant number two receiver much of the season, but his numbers and targets have fallen a bit over the past several weeks. The Bills rank 18th versus the pass and allow the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, including 13 touchdowns this season; a good matchup for Avery to rebound.

Thursday Night Could be Lloyds Night
With two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets (Gronkowski & Hernandez) OUT and limited for Thursday night, wide receiver Brandon Lloyd could be next up on the Patriots rotation. Lloyd and Brady have been off just a bit this season, but Lloyd continues to see his share of balls; second on the team with 82 targets. In Lloyd’s last two games he’s seen a total of 13 targets, a slight drop from what he was getting earlier in the season. With limited weapons tomorrow night for Brady, Lloyd could be a strong flex option.

Kaepernick to Start Versus Saints
The Niners are sticking with their healthy quarterback Colin Kaepernick; he will get the start this Sunday against the Saints. Kaepernick had the hot hand and arm on Monday night completely dismantling the Bears defense and with the Saints up next, fantasy owners should expect more. The Saints defense is allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 21 touchdowns this season. With his mobility, Kaepernick is a double threat and lock to produce solid fantasy numbers; could be waiver wire pick up of the week.

The Chief Wide Reciever Bowe Limited
Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (neck) was limited in practice, but looks to be on track to play Sunday barring any setbacks. With the Chiefs matching up with the Broncos on Sunday, this is not good news for Bowe or fantasy owners. Bowe is likely to see a lot of the Broncos cover corner Champ Bailey, fantasy owners should not expect a big day; he’s nothing more than a flex option at best.


By David Ortega