FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 8th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My Week 5 Injury Takes

Ty Montgomery (ribs) Doubtful - Montgomery is sitting today, so it's likely a timeshare in Green Bay with running back Aaron Jones expected to be the lead back; Jones is a week 5 fade.

Derek Carr (back) Questionable - the Raiders quarterback has been petitioning to play, but despite his effort it's unlikely you will see him on the field; sit Carr today.

Melvin Gordon (knee) - the Chargers running back was removed from the team's injury report and is ready to go for week 5; Gordon is facing the Giants today is my No.9 fantasy RB.

Amari Cooper (knee) - the Raiders receivers has been removed from the team's injury report. With a likely changes at quarterback today, Cooper is considered a low-end WR2.

Michael Crabtree (chest) - Crab wasn't listed on the team final injury report. This will be good news for EJ Manuel and company, but with the tough matchup against the Ravens today Crab is my No.29 fantasy WR.

CJ Prosise (ankle) ruled OUT - the Seahawks running back is OUT for this week. With Prosise shelved, running back JD McKissic is expected to fill the pass-catching role and be heavily involved in the pass game.

Carlos Hyde (hip) - the Niners running back wasn't listed on the Week 5 injury report, so he'll be ready to go today against the Colts. Hyde is an RB1, coming in at No.8 on my Week 5 rankings.

Davante Adams (concussion) Questionable - Adams has cleared the concussion protocol, so he's expected to suit up today; Adams is outside my Top-30 and considered a risky flex play today.

JJ Nelson (knee) Questionable - the Cardinal's receiver was limited in practice all week, but is expected to play. Less than 100 percent, Nelson has not been affective since week 2, he's a risky flier this week against the Eagles.

John Brown (quad) Questionable - Brown has been limited all week, but is expected to play today against the Eagles. Like Nelson, Brown is a risky flier this week, but with more upside.

Benjamin Watson (calf) Questionable - Watson was able to practice in full on Friday, so he should be good to go today. He's my No.17 fantasy tight end this week on the road against the Raiders.

Jeremy Maclin (hand) Questionable - the Ravens wide receiver practiced in full all week, so he's good to go today. With a struggling Ravens offense, Maclin is a risky receiving option this week.

Jay Ajayi (knee) - the Dolphins running back wasn't listed on the team's final injury report. Ajayi is good to go today and should be ready for a full workload; he's my No.5 fantasy RB this week.

Paul Perkins (ribs) ruled OUT - with Perkins sidelined this week running back Wayne Gallman will likely take the reins in a good against the Chargers.

Ameer Abdullah (ankle) - the Lions running back has been removed from the team's Week 5 injury report. It's a tough week 5 matchup for Abdullah, but he's been carrying the Lionshare this season; he's locked in at No.13 on my rankings.

Kenny Golladay (hamstring) ruled OUT - the rookie receiver will miss another week nursing his hamstring injury. Golladay is off the fantasy radar for now.

Tyrell Williams (neck) Questionable - the Chargers 2nd leading receiver on the team will play Sunday. That's good news for Rivers and company, Williams will be considered a low-end WR2.

Kelvin Benjamin (knee) - the Panthers wide receiver is not listed on the team's finaly injury report. Benjamin is ready to go for week 5 against the Lions; he's a low-end WR2 today.

Marcus Mariota (hamstring) Questionable - the Titans quarterback is not expected to play today. Back up Matt Cassel is expected to start; Cassel is not a fantasy option this week.

Jack Doyle (concussion) ruled OUT - the Colts tight end will be sidelined today. His absence should benefit TY Hilton and afford him a few more looks on Sunday.

Martavis Bryant (illness) Questionable - the Steelers explosive receiver is expected to play today. Fantasy owners are still waiting patiently for Bryant and Big Ben to breakout, but today's matchup with the Jags does not favor any coming out party; Bryant is my No.26 fantasy WR this week.

That’s My Take for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2017

Sunday Early Morning Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 4)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Marcus Mariota (start) The Titans are on the road this week, but that shouldn't slow quarterback Marcus Mariota. Currently the No.10 fantasy QB Mariota will look to increase his numbers today against a Texans defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks; start him.

Marquise Lee (start) How often will you hear anyone say to start a Jaguars receiver. With Allen Robinson done for the season, Lee who emerged in the second half of last season has started to become more active with 19 targets over his last two games. If he stays involved today, look for him to find the end zone for the first time this season.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Panthers wide out was removed from the injury report, so he should be good to go and I like him today against the Patriots. The Pats have allowed the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers; start Benjamin.

Adam Thielen (start) The Vikings passing game has received a new injection with the surprise play of quarterback Case Keenum. Through the two weeks Keenum has started, Thielen has been effective; 10 receptions for 142 yards over the past 2 weeks. I expect another productive day from Thielen, start him.

Austin Hopper (sit) The Falcons tight end has not been a big part of the offense this early part of the season with just 6 targets through 3 games. Don’t expect Hooper to get kickstarted today against a Bills defense that has been stingy against opposing tight ends.

Joe Flacco (sit) After last weeks dismal performance, I don’t expect there are too many rolling with Flacco today. He should have been on your bench last week and that’s where he should stay today. The Steelers defense limits opposing quarterbacks to the 3rd fewest fantasy points, sit no go Joe.

Isaiah Crowell (sit) Crowell has quietly become a forgotten man in fantasy through the first three weeks. Crowell was expected to be a top 20 fantasy runner, currently No.40 in PPR, today’s matchup against the Bengals is not likely to help his cause. Sit the Crow.

Sammy Watkins (start) This is a gut call, but I also like the matchup. Watkins will be available week 4 and the big play receiver should have success working against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed the 5th most receptions and 4 touchdowns to opposing receivers. Start Sammy.

Travis Benjamin (start) A Philip Rivers favorite in the passing game it seems, Benjamin was pretty good a week ago with 5 receptions for 105 yards receiving. The two should have no problem keeping this combo rolling against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Start him.

Paul Perkins (sit) The Giants run game has been non-existent and even more so running back Paul Perkins has done nothing through three games. He may eventually get things turned around, but too risky to chance today. Sit Perkins.

Chris Johnson (start) CJ2K looked a little rusty last week, so with another week of practicing perhaps he can get his wheels spinning into a higher gear. He’s got the matchup to make some noise today against the Niner’s 22nd ranked run defense.

Jamaal Charles (start) This is not too bold, but it’s risky, start Jam today against the Raiders. Last week Charles played out as a nice flex option with 56 yards and a score. He’ll get a few more carries today and I like his chances to break one against the league’s 19th ranked run defense (Raiders).

Paul Richardson (start) The Seahawks receiver has had a nose for the end zone in the early going this season with two scores. The Colts allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, I like Richardson here to be more involved, especially with Baldwin less than 100 percent. Start Richardson.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd 2017

Sunday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

The holiday weekend is almost to a close, but there is still plenty of fantasy football to cover, fantasy drafts to be had, and fantasy players to discuss. Always the questions to be asked once you drafted a player or your team; Did I find good value? Is there too much risk? Is this player a stud? Did I take him too early?

Well here are a few players that I’ll offer my answer on;

Studs (target these guys)

Call me a believer and call him Matty Ice, but I like the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this season once again. Some folks may think his epic and career performance last season is more of an anomaly than the norm, but I see it as a trend. Ryan posted career numbers in passing touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9), and QB rating (117.13). Since 2012 he has passed for over 4,500 yards every season, his completion percentage has remained steady above 65 percent. Last year was a big year with a high touchdown volume and few turnovers (7 interceptions), so coming back with virtually all of the same pieces in place on offense, I expect similar results. He’s the number four quarterback going off the boards, where he belongs.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed is one of those risks and rewards picks this year. When he’s healthy, he’s as good as the best at his position, putting up fantasy numbers that rival the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. Last season from weeks 1 to 5 and then again from weeks 8 to 12, Reed was the No. 3 scoring fantasy tight end in the NFL. During these two spans the Redskins tight end totaled 81 targets, 59 receptions, 630 yards receiving, and 5 scores; extrapolated over 16 games that’s a line of 105-1120-9. If Reed is healthy this season, his upside is Gronk-like. Even with the risk, he’s worth the take around his mid-5th round ADP (according to FFC) and any later than that he’s a great value.

Duds (drafting too early)

To again clarify, my definition of Dud is not a bust, but rather just under performing their current draft position. When I talk about the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, the word bust is not a part of the conversation. Mariota has been steady since his arrival finishing the 2016 campaign as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback. This season the Titan’s signal caller has a few new toys; the addition of veteran wide receiver Eric Decker and rookie receiver Corey Davis. The thing fantasy owners need to remember, last season the Titans were 4th in the NFL with 476 rushing attempts, 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game, and threw the 5th fewest passes. This season the Titans may throw a little more, but their primary weapon is their run game. What I expect to see from Mariota is a lot of efficiency, not necessarily greater volume. On the other hand I see several other passers such as Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball considerably more. Mariota is a QB1 in 10-12 team leagues, but his total numbers may leave him closer to his No.13 finish from last season, rather than his No.7 fantasy quarterback going off the board.

Another quarterback that I view in similar light to Mariota is the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Again, it’s not so much what he does or doesn’t do, but it’s where he lands compared to other quarterbacks going off the board right after him. Wilson is being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback ahead of Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Andrew Luck. I have him as my No.12 fantasy quarterback this season, following a No.10 finish in 2016. Last year Wilson needed 546 passes, 63 more than his career high to post his number 10 finish; this is not something I expect to see him repeat. He’ll be efficient and could be easily be Top10 (with better numbers this season), but I think other quarterbacks (the ones mentioned) are more likely to have the opportunity to post Top-10 fantasy numbers this season.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Decemeber 10th 2016
Saturday Morning Edition

Week 14 Fantasy Notes

Taking a look at this week’s quarterback position presents it’s own challenges and dilemmas with so much at stake. Do you ride with what has gotten you there, or do you read the numbers and play the matchups? Decisions, decisions...

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a hot fantasy prospect much of the season. Slotting in as the number 3 scoring quarterback Ryan has been a regular weekly start’em, but such has not been the case of late. In his first nine games this season, Ryan topped the 20 fantasy points marker six times. 

In his last three starts Ryan has yet to reach 19 fantasy points (standard scoring) and with a banged up wide receiver Julio Jones, the prospects don’t look good. This week will also present a difficult matchup on the road facing a tough Rams defense. The Rams defense has not been invincible this season ranking at 12th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season and they have also been shredded the past two weeks allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. At best Ryan is a questionable, but safe start (if you can afford to be safe).

On the other hand, if you need to swing for the fences and can throw caution to the wind Colin Kapaernick may be the play for you this week. The Niners signal caller is coming off one of his worst performances on the field and statistically; 1 for 5 passing for 4 yards and just 20 yards rushing. In fairness conditions were atrocious in the Windy City (Chicago), but just the same this type of performance is concerning for fantasy owners.

The good news for Kap owners and fans, the Niners are home and coming to town are the lowly New York Jets. The Jets are coming off a woeful Monday night showing against the Colts where quarterback Andrew Luck and company made mincemeat of their secondary. Luck completed 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four touchdowns; this followed a week 12 performance from Patriots quarterback Tom Brady who passed for 286 yards with two touchdowns. 

The prospects of a good Sunday are there for Kapaernick and the weather should not be a factor. Play him over quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, and Marcus Mariota at your own risk. With options like Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, I am sticking with my starters.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th, 2016
Friday evening Edition
Week 12: Friday Fantasy Fixx
So I am looking at the passing game and matchups this week and these are a few of my favorites to start for Sunday.
With receivers like Stefon Diggs OUT this week (did not play yesterday), fantasy owners will be looking for some help and could find salvage this week from players like the Rams wideout Kenny Britt. With a decent matchup against the Saints defense this week, Britt could turn in a nice Sunday. While Britt has not been spectacular this season, the Saints secondary has allowed the 8th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Britt is the Rams leading receiver and normally sees a healthy dose of targets each week. He’s not going to light up any boards, but he could fill the need this week as a low WR3 or flex option.
Another receiving option that should draw some lineup consideration this Sunday is the Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta. The Ravens will host the Bengals this week and Pitta will see coverage that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including the 5th most receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns (tied for the 3rd most). Pitta is not a primary option in the pass game, but could see a few more targets this week, especially in the red zone. He’s definitely worth a look in deep leagues.
With the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota playing as well as he has over the past several weeks, one of his targets that should be started this week is wide out Rishard Matthews. Matthews has scored in double-digits in his past three games and this week he has a great shot to make it four in a row. The Titans will visit the Bears this Sunday and look to exploit a defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 2nd most receptions and the 7th most yards receiving. If you have him, he’s definitely a mid-WR2 this week. Start him Sunday.
That’s My Take.
~David G Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 19th, 2016
Saturday Evening Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Favorites

While some folks may be high on the Tennessee Titan's quarterback Marcus Mariota and why not, he's been hot of late; 7 touchdown passes over the past two weeks, I am liking his opponent Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. It hasn't been a great season thus far for Luck, but he's still been very much in the thick of things this fantasy season with six games of 17 fantasy points or more. Sunday he gets the Titans 24th ranked pass defense that allows the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. And remember back in week 7 Luck lit up the Titans for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Another favorite for Sunday that I am high on is Titan's tight end Delanie Walker. Walker is the 2nd ranked fantasy tight end (standard scoring) through 10 weeks, with five receiving touchdowns (tied for most in the league). In his last meeting versus the Colts back in week seven he logged 7 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. He is the 6th most targeted tight end in the league and figures to have another busy Sunday against the Colts.

Lastly, another Sunday favorite that I will be eyeing is the Steelers 2nd year wide receiver Eli Rogers. No question this is a flyer pick and Sunday sleeper, but I like Rogers chances. The Browns secondary allows the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers and have allowed 40 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season (most in the league). The Browns have also allowed 9 pass plays of 40 yards or more (4th most) and Rogers is a big play threat. He's a bit hit or miss; more likely a better DFS play than redraft lineup insert. But keep an eye on Rogers going forward.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega