FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Saturday Edition
October 13th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

With five weeks in the books you would think this would be easy, but deciding on who to start or who you like every week becomes an ever increasing daunting task for most fantasy owners. I am here to agree it’s a tough guessing game, but I will at least offer you some insight to support your decision.

My week 6 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Matthew Stafford, DET)

No one is perfect and certainly quarterback Matt Stafford has been far from it this season, especially when you compare his 2011 breakout season, but could this be the week he gets on track. The Lions are on the road this week and despite their 1-3 record their offense has not been all bad this season. Through six weeks Stafford’s 295 yards passing per game ranks 7th in the league and he is completing nearly 66% of his passes. Stafford has only three touchdown tosses this season, but could have extra time this Sunday to throw facing an Eagles defense that has only registered 7 sacks. Given time in the pocket Stafford has the weapons to do considerable damage and with one of the leagues’ elite pass catchers in Calvin Johnson, it could be a long day for the Eagles secondary.

Running Back (Trent Richardson, CLE)

The season is young and we really haven’t seen all this kid in Cleveland, Trent Richardson can do. He has only 303 yards rushing this season through five games, but he is coming off a solid performance against the Giants in week 5 and has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games. This Sunday he’ll take on the Bengals 19th ranked run defense that is allowing better than four yards per tote and has surrendered seven rushing touchdowns this season (3rd most in the league). With the home crowd on the sideline, Richardson is expected to carry what sounds to be the lions-share of the load on Sunday and fantasy owners could reap great rewards.

Wide Receiver (Michael Crabtree, SF)

The Niners offense has suddenly sprung into action in the 2012 season and one of the big reasons is the emergence of Michael Crabtree. The former first rounder in the 2009 NFL draft (10th overall pick) has blossomed into a very effective receiving weapon for quarterback Alex Smith and the Niners offense. Crabtree so far in the 2012 season has 27 receptions for 311 yards with a touchdown and is quickly becoming a regular fantasy starter for most owners. His numbers are nice, but owners would definitely love to see a little more consistency before promoting him to the next level. Matchup with a very suspect and banged up 22nd ranked secondary, Crabtree looks ready to leap to the next tier.

Tight End (Martellus Bennett, NYG)

The Niners defense does appear formidable on paper as well as on the field, but despite what all the signals are telling us, their does appear to be a few chinks in the armor. In five games this season, the defense has been beat by opposing tight ends for four scores this season. Now a Giant the former Cowboys tight end Martellus Bennett is quickly becoming a Red-Zone favorite for quarterback Eli Manning and the Giants offense. Bennett has scored three times this season and with 30 targets already (second on the team) he figures to get his share of chances on Sunday.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
October 12th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 6 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

Now that we have reached the bye weeks with another four teams on the sideline Week 6 presents some interesting and favorable matchups for fantasy owners and once again the trick will be sorting through the smoke and mirrors to find those weekly gems…..

Kevin Kolb, QB
The Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb has not been a fantasy starlet this season, but he has not been all bad either. In four starts this season Kolb has 6 touchdowns with only two interceptions while averaging 244 yards passing per game; not exactly big numbers but steady. This week the Cards will play host to the Buffalo Bills and Kolb should have plenty of opportunity for big numbers against the league’s 24th ranked pass defense.

Darren McFadden, RB
There’s little reason to think that the Raiders will suddenly change their way of thinking, but if they believe in numbers as we do then we should see quite a bit of running back Darren McFadden on Sunday. The Raiders travel to Atlanta this week and will line up against the league’s 28th ranked run defense. The Falcons are allowing not only 142 yards per game, but over 5 yards per carry; the best recipe for a big fantasy Sunday for an elite running back. If McFadden is going to be elite, this would be the time to make a statement.

Andy Dalton, QB
The Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been quote the past couple of weeks, but he and the Bengals offense should catch a break this weekend when they meet the Browns this weekend in Cleveland. The Browns 25th ranked secondary has been lit up for 12 touchdowns this season and over 280 yards in the air per game; an inviting week 6 matchup for Dalton and the Bengals.

Roddy White, WR
It seems every week there is a flavor of the week in the Falcons passing attack. When the Raiders come to town on Sunday, this will be good news for wide receiver Roddy White and the Falcons aerial attack. The Raiders pass defense is ranked 27th in the league surrendering 283 yards per game and their secondary has yet to record an interception in 2012. White is always a favorite in the pass game and figures to do some damage this week.

Demaryrius Thomas, WR
The Broncos young wide out is quickly becoming a fantasy household name and he could become even bigger, if he can just hang on to the ball. Despite his three fumbles this season, Thomas is still a fantasy favorite with 505 receiving yards (3rd in the league) and 30 receptions this season with two scores. On Monday night he will face the Chargers pass defense that has allowed 11 touchdowns this season and 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more; it could be a big night for Thomas.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition
October 11th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Nicks Getting Close

The Giants explosive wide out Hakeem Nicks has returned to the practice field, albeit in limited fashion, but it’s a step closer to returning to the field of action. Nicks is a big play home run hitter, in two games of action he has 14 receptions for 237 yards and a score. Nicks is so dynamic on the field, if he can get back he’s a must start. Friday’s practice is expected to tell the tale and determine if we’ll see him on Sunday.

Quinn Will Get Start On Sunday

The Chiefs will be without their regular starting quarterback Matt Cassel, who was injured last Sunday versus the Ravens and will start back-up Brady Quinn this Sunday against the Buccaneers. Despite the poor play of Cassel this season (14 turnovers), Quinn is not likely a huge upgrade. Quinn has not started a game since the 2009 season and you have to worry about his chemistry with his receivers. About the only thing that seems certain, expect a lot of Jamaal Charles on Sunday. 

Are They Whispers or Cries for TO?

Right now quarterback Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets have no weapons in the passing game and that’s a fact. When you are bringing your number corner over to the offensive side to run routes, you have problems. Free Agent Terrell Owens certainly looks like he’d be a better option, better than any the Jets currently have. Owens is still a physical specimen and would be an immediate upgrade for the Jets offense. He’s not going to be anyone’s savior, but until something changes in the Jets’ offense the entire squad remains a non-fantasy factor.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY'S TAKES

Thursday Edition

October 11th, 2012 

Thursdays Take

Starts

There’s little reason to buy into this logic considering what we have seen from Chris Johnson thus far this season, but if there were any better time to start the Titan’s running back tonight could be that time. The Steelers run defense has been far from formidable this season, even with seeing the leagues’ 8^th fewest attempts per game. The Steelers allow more than 4 yards per carry and with a couple of big holes in the D due to injury (Polamalu, Woodley OUT) Johnson could find some running room. I wouldn’t expect a big effort tonight, but we could see one of his better efforts of the young season; 80 plus yards with a score.

The word out of the Titan’s camp after last week’s disappointing loss to the Vikings was to try and get the ball more to their tight end Jared Cook. Against the Vikings, Cook was often roaming the secondary wide open, but a rusty Hasselbeck neglected to look his direction. We’re expecting that to change and Cook is a very capable receiving option in the passing game.

The Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall returned to action last week with a strong 2012 debut (101 total yards and a touchdown) and fantasy owners could not ask for a better second game matchup than the Titans. Mendenhall will square off against the leagues 28^th ranked run defense (144 yards/game) that has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in five games. Even if Mendenhall splits time in the backfield, expect a very productive showing.

Big Ben is coming off a quiet week five performance against a stout Eagles defense, but this Thursday he faces a less than stellar secondary in the Titan’s 25^th ranked pass defense. Big Ben will line up under center and face a defense that has allowed 12 passing touchdowns and 279 yards per game in the air. The Titans struggle to bring pressure, if you give Big Ben time he can do a lot of damage; expect to see Roethlisberger looking downfield often.

Sits

Matt Hasselbeck will get the start tonight, but he’s got a monumental task in front of him facing the leagues 3^rd rank pass defense. Hasselbeck is not the same passer of old as his 3-touchdowns-to-3-interceptions and 73.6 passer rating would indicate. While the Steelers have been able to limit their opponents to less than 200 yards per game, they will need to improve their 8-1, touchdown-interception ratio; tonight is a good place to start.

I can’t imagine anyone starting the Titan’s defense in any week and tonight’s matchup is no exception. The Steelers will use the ground game to open up the pass and with plenty of weapons with the likes of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, this could be a big night for the Pennsylvania faithful.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
October 7th, 2012
  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Some quick fantasy notes for Sunday week 5, who to play and who should stay (on your bench);

The Browns are down a couple of receivers today, including Mohamed Massaquoi, so expect to see rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden riding the legs of rookie running back Trent Richardson. The Giants allow more than 4 yards per carry and nearly 120 yards on the ground, start Richardson today.

The Packers will travel to Indy today, but will be without the services of wide receiver Greg Jennings. Facing the Colts secondary that has only one pick this season and struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, Rodgers will still have plenty of weapons including wide receiver James Jones. Jones should be considered a safe flex play today.

While the Falcons defense has been improved this season, there have been some leaks in their ground defense. With a full endorsement from his head coach Mike Shanahan, running back Alfred Morris should find a few holes today against the leagues 29th ranked run defense.

The Packers may rely more on their ground game today and with a banger like Cedric Benson, the team has plenty of confidence to get him the rock. Running back James Starks is inactive once again, so lining up against the leagues 25th ranked run defense it will be the Benson show. He’s a nice RB2 start today.

Just as expected with Nicks and Barden on the shelf today, Hixon looks to be the hot play in Jersey against the Browns. Expect to see Eli look for Hixon often today against the Browns suspect secondary. Hixon is a great flex or low-end WR2 in deeper leagues today.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
October 7th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

The Hot Plays for Week 5

The Bengals tandem of quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver AJ Green could be licking their chops today as they prepare to face the league’s 30th ranked pass defense (Miami). Green is off to a great start this season with 428 receiving yards and three touchdowns and Dalton is leading the league’s 8th ranked pass offense. Put this equation together and if the Bengals “O” line can protect Dalton today, these two should have a big day.

The Vikings play host to the Titan’s today and wide receiver Percy Harvin should benefit greatly facing the league’s 27th ranked pass defense. Harvin has been a big part of the Vikings offense this season with 30 receptions for 299 yards, but in four games he’s yet to find the end zone. That could all change today, the Titans secondary have allowed 10 touchdowns this season, second most in the NFL.

The Giants wide receiver Domenik Hixon is coming off a nice six-catch 114 yard performance last week against the Eagles. With Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden sidelined, Hixon will figure big in the Giants passing game plan today and facing the Browns 28th ranked pass defense he could be looking at another nice outing. The Browns have also surrendered 9 passing touchdowns this season, so Hixon has a good chance of finding the end zone today.

The Bronco’s quarterback Peyton Manning is coming off his best effort year-to-date (31 fantasy points) and this week he’ll see the league’s 25th ranked pass defense. The Broncos line does a pretty good job of keeping their quarterback upright and Manning does a great job of getting the ball out quick. He has the look of a hot play this week.


By David Ortega