WEEK 5: BUYING AND SELLING

October 11th, 2015
Sunday (NFL Week 5)

Week 5: Buying and Selling

Four weeks into the season should be plenty of sample size to figure a few things out for your Sunday fantasy football lineup, but that doesn't mean you should rest on your laurels.

You did a pretty good job drafting this year and after four weeks you're sitting in a pretty good spot, so now's the time to use your fantasy savvy to make a few tweaks and improve your championship run.

Through the first four weeks we've seen enough to know when it's time to let someone go and move on and when it's time to find value.

These are my week 5 buys and sells;

I am buying into Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, 1,187 yards passing and 9 touchdowns are enough for me to believe he's a reliable play week-in and week-out. Not only is the Red Rifle producing on the offensive side, but he's only thrown one interception in 116 attempts this season. Today may be a stiff test at home against the Seahawks, but I still believe Dalton finishes as a QB1 today.

I am also buying into running back Dion Lewis of the Patriots. Remember a running back by the name of Shane Vereen. Lewis has inherited that role as the teams lead back in the passing game and averaging 10 carries per game through the teams first three games is a great indicator he's a safe weekly play. He's also dominating the backfield with 154 offensive snaps this season, putting him on the field two-thirds of the time. Today's matchup against the Cowboys defense that allow the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs should be a great opportunity for Lewis to produce; the Cowboys have also surrendered the (tied for) third-most receptions to opposing backs.

 A couple of names that I am selling after four weeks; Bears wide reciever Alshon Jeffery (questionable today and not expected to play) and and Broncos running back CJ Anderson (just not producing).

You probably used a high pick to select Jeffery, so you don't want to give him away, but it's time to move on. Jeffery was a disappointment last season and without a top receiving threat opposite him (when he returns) you are probably not going to get back what you invested; it's time to move-on and get what you can.

Anderson is a little different. Again owners probably bought high on him and again, you need to get some return. Right now back-up running back Ronnie Hillman clearly looks like the better back and better fit for the Broncos offense. Anderson is not going to reside on the bench, he's still figure in the mix, but how long can you hang on with performances of 29, 27, 18, and 43 yards rushing? He is still relevant, so you should be able to get some return on him, but move him now before his value bottoms out.

Some plays I will be leaning on this week, start;

Justin Forsett vs the Browns D
Alfred Morris vs the Falcons D
Kendall Wright vs the Bills D
Jordan Matthew vs the Saints D

And yes I am playing Anthony Dixon versus the Titans with no Karlos Williams or LeSean McCoy.

Just my take for week 5.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition
December 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Favorites

Alexander Worth Starting
The Chargers and quarterback Philip Rivers have found themselves a new go-to receiver in Danario Alexander. With his 6’5”, 217-lb frame, Alexander is bolting his way up the fantasy receivers charts; over his last five games he’s caught 30 passes for 494 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Alexander seems to be making Charger fans quickly forget about Vincent Jackson and with his current play, he’s becoming a favorite of fantasy owners. Alexander has been targeted 47 times over his past five games and is clearly on Rivers’ radar as a go-to option; Alexander is a borderline WR1/WR2 every week.

McFadden Ready to Bounce Back
Running back Darren McFadden has not had the type of season many fantasy owners were expecting when they drafted him during their fantasy drafts back in August. Through 14 weeks McFadden has missed four games and only rushed for more than 100 yards on two occasions. Last week in the Raiders loss the Broncos Run-DMC did manage to score for only his third time this season. This Sunday against the Chiefs 27th ranked run defense McFadden will be looking to bounce back; Run-DMC certainly has the potential to break out and the Chiefs are primed to crack. The Chiefs allow 4.6 yards per carry, over 130 yards per game and 17 run plays of 20 yards or more (most in the league); this is a good week to start McFadden.

Wilson the Hot Flavor this Week
The Giants will be without running back Ahmad Bradshaw (ruled OUT) this Sunday against the Falcons, opening the door for the speedy rookie running back David Wilson. Last week Wilson impressed on special teams and with a tasty matchup this week against the Falcons 23rd ranked run defense he looks ready to impress in the starting role. The Falcons allow almost 5 yards per carry and have surrendered 14 rushing touchdowns this season; Wilson is the hot start off the waiver wire this week.

Beast-mode Returns to Buffalo
The Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch returns to Buffalo on Sunday where his career began. Lynch was drafted in the first round by the Bills in the 2007 draft. This Sunday he brings his beast-mode to Ralph Wilson Stadium where he’ll face the 28th ranked run defense. Lynch has seven 100-yard rushing games this season and looks like a good bet to make it eight on Sunday. He’s a Top-10 fantasy start.

Madden-Curse no match for Megatron
Despite being on the cover of the famous Madden Game, Calvin Johnson continues to defy the infamous curse. It’s been a lean year for touchdowns this season for Megatron, but he continues to post big numbers each week. Johnson has posted six straight 100-yard receiving games (averaging 151 yards per game) and has 9 total this season. Johnson has also scored in four of his last five contests (5 touchdowns this season). This Sunday he matches up against the Cardinals 5th ranked secondary, but these days averaging nearly 15 targets per game (over his last five starts) it makes little difference who Megatron faces; he’s a must start every Sunday.

Morris Ready to Carry the Load
The Redskins rookie running back Alfred Morris has been running well for the Redskins this season with six 100 yard rushing games under his belt, including three straight. With the Redskins set to square off versus the Browns, Morris will have a great chance to make it four straight against the 17th ranked run defense. Morris is also averaging more than 22 touches over his last four starts, so fantasy owners have to like his chances at hitting the century mark on Sunday. Morris is a top-15 fantasy start.

More takes for week 15.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
December 9th, 2012

  

The Four Horsemen

My week 14 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Eli Manning)
The Giants are at home today and quarterback Eli Manning has a prime matchup against the Saints 32nd ranked pass defense. The Saints allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks set to play today, it’s a great chance for a big game from Eli; 300 yards passing, with multiple touchdowns.

Running Back (Alfred Morris)
The Redskins rookie running back Alfred Morris has been rolling of late tied for 3rd in the league with 1,106 yards rushing, he’s coming off consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts. Today he’s matched up against the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense and will look to make it three in a row.

Wide Receiver (Dez Bryant)
The Cowboys wide receiver has been playing at an extremely high level of late scoring in each of his last four games (six touchdowns total). He’s having a great 2012 campaign on the verge of surpassing the 1,000 yard receiving mark this week. He’s matched up against a pretty good Bengals defense, but one that was beat last week by Danario Alexander for 6 grabs and 102 yards; I expect at least those type of numbers from Dez today.

Tight End (Jermichael Finley)
Tight end Jermichael Finley has not been having a great 2012 by his standards and expectations of football prognosticators, but against the Lions 17th ranked pass defense his fortune could change. The Lions allow the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and with Jordy Nelson sidelined, Finley could see more targets tonight. I like his chances this week.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
December 7th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 14 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and this is no time to be second guessing or playing with doubt. This week it’s “Go Big or Go Home” so you better have the right guys in your lineup. Looking over the week 14 matchups, I offer a handful of plays that I favor this Sunday;

Week 14 fantasy help;

Michael Crabtree, WR
The 49ers don’t usually have much for fantasy owners to get excited about on offense, but unlike any other season or earlier in the season with quarterback Colin Kaepernick under center he adds another dimension that can open things up. Since Kaepernick took over the controls of the offense, wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been steadily involved. Last Sunday Crabtree was targeted a season high 11 times; his stat line, 7 receptions for 101 yards. This Sunday the Niners will face the Dolphins 26th ranked defense that allows the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers.  In their last three road games the Dolphins have allowed at least 79 yards to the opposing team’s leading receiver; Crabtree should be a very safe flex option this week. 

Brandon Pettigrew, TE
It’s looking to be a chilly night this Sunday in Lambeau, but even low temperatures won’t stop the Lions passing game from heating up. The Lions pass game is in full throttle and over the team’s past four games tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been targeted heavily (39 times). With injuries to their young receivers (Ryan Broyles and Titus Young), fantasy owners can expect to see Pettigrew even more involved. The Packers secondary does a pretty good job against opposing tight ends, but last season at Lambeau Pettigrew caught 7 balls for 116 yards; this week could be another big game.

Alfred Morris, RB
The Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has found himself another gem in the draft. Many of us knew that RGIII was a great talent with a tremendous upside, but very few knew what the Redskins found when they selected rookie running back Alfred Morris in the 6th round. Morris has been great this season rushing for 1,106 yards with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed the century mark five times this season, including his back-to-back efforts in week 12 and 13. With the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense coming to town, Morris could make it three in a row. He’s averaging 22 carries per game in his last three starts and may not need that many to hit the 100-yard mark this Sunday; play him!

Greg Jennings, WR
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings is just one game back from injury and although his return was less than spectacular, his four grabs for 46 yards were respectable considering. The more important number to note from last week was his 8 targets. This week the Packers will be without wide out Jordy Nelson facing the Lions 18th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners can expect at least as many, if not more targets for Jennings this week and facing a secondary that allows the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, he’s a lock for a more productive week 14. Jennings should be in your lineup somewhere, low WR2 or flex.

Andrew Luck, QB
Quarterback Andrew Luck has been too consistent this season to be lucky; the kid is just good. This week facing the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, fantasy owners can count on the Colts offense riding Luck’s arm; the Colts offense goes through Luck. Not only does Luck lead the way, but this week he gets a defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 24 touchdowns. Coming off a big win in week 13, Luck needs to be in lineups this Sunday for another big performance.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
October 7th, 2012
  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Some quick fantasy notes for Sunday week 5, who to play and who should stay (on your bench);

The Browns are down a couple of receivers today, including Mohamed Massaquoi, so expect to see rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden riding the legs of rookie running back Trent Richardson. The Giants allow more than 4 yards per carry and nearly 120 yards on the ground, start Richardson today.

The Packers will travel to Indy today, but will be without the services of wide receiver Greg Jennings. Facing the Colts secondary that has only one pick this season and struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, Rodgers will still have plenty of weapons including wide receiver James Jones. Jones should be considered a safe flex play today.

While the Falcons defense has been improved this season, there have been some leaks in their ground defense. With a full endorsement from his head coach Mike Shanahan, running back Alfred Morris should find a few holes today against the leagues 29th ranked run defense.

The Packers may rely more on their ground game today and with a banger like Cedric Benson, the team has plenty of confidence to get him the rock. Running back James Starks is inactive once again, so lining up against the leagues 25th ranked run defense it will be the Benson show. He’s a nice RB2 start today.

Just as expected with Nicks and Barden on the shelf today, Hixon looks to be the hot play in Jersey against the Browns. Expect to see Eli look for Hixon often today against the Browns suspect secondary. Hixon is a great flex or low-end WR2 in deeper leagues today.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition

September 28th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 4 Running Backs

Week 4 has some interesting twists and matchups, but with three weeks in the books (nearly a quarter of the regular season), we have a much better feel of what to expect….or do we?

Cedric Benson, GB

There’s absolutely no reason to believe that (head coach) Mike McCarthy’s Packers are going to change anything about how they attack opposing defenses, but I definitely think he’s not too smart for his own good. The Packers throw the ball and just about better than anyone else in the league, but facing the league’s worst run defense this week, they will run; enter Mr. Benson. Cedric is not off to a hot start this season, but he’s shown he can still be productive when called on; in week 2 he toted the rock 20 times for 81 yards. This week against the Saints (allowing 5 yards per carry) Benson should have little trouble finding running room; he’s a good low end RB2 this week.

Alfred Morris, WAS

The Redskins main guy in the backfield, rookie running back Alfred Morris is enjoying a solid 2012 campaign, ranked 9th in rushing with three touchdowns and a solid 4.3 yards per carry average. On Sunday he’ll line up in the backfield set to take on the Buccaneers stout number one ranked run defense. Morris is not going to find too many holes on Sunday, but facing the Bucs shaky secondary (ranked last in the league) the Redskins should still enjoy plenty of success moving the ball, putting Morris in line to add to his three scores this season. He’s not going to tally big numbers on the ground, but Morris should still be a safe low end RB2 play this week.

Stevan Ridley, NE

Ranked 11th in rushing this season (233 yards rushing), with five receptions for another 51 yards, the Patriots running back Stevan Ridley is finding plenty of ways to stay productive on Sunday. He’s only managed to cross the goal line once this season, but facing the Bills 15th ranked run defense (17th overall), I like Ridley’s chances to find pay-dirt at least once on Sunday. I am not too high on this kid this week, but I think Ridley will manage 80-plus yards with a score; a safe RB2 this week.

Willis McGahee, DEN

Despite the injury concerns surrounding Broncos running back Willis McGahee, he is expected to play and should play well this Sunday against the league’s 23rd ranked defense. The Raiders have issues in the secondary and could be in for a long afternoon trying to cover the Bronco’s receivers. With success in the air, holes should be open for McGahee to find and even a couple of trips into the red zone. I expect to see McGahee get at least one in the end-zone this week against the Raiders run defense that has already yielded four touchdowns on the ground this season; start him.

Maurice Jones-Drew

The Jaguars offense has been far from fantasy stellar this season, but they have not been all that bad, especially running back Maurice Jones-Drew (ranked 3rd in rushing). Mo-Jo may have held out, but it looks like he kept in pretty good shape tallying 314 yards thus far this season on the ground. MJD has also kept himself active in the pass game with 8 receptions in three games. He’ll face the leagues 31st ranked run defense (Bengals) that is allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry and over 150 yards on the ground per contest. It’s never easy to predict big games, but it’s easy to say Mo-Jo is a solid RB1 this week.

By David Ortega