FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Another week of exciting DFS and this week I am liking a lot what I am rolling out for Sunday (Week 4) on Fan Duel;

QB-Matthew Stafford ($7,700): At his price I am a big fan of Stafford this week. The Vikings are stout versus the run and the Lions don’t run the ball particularly well, leaving Stafford as the best option. The Vikings defense has allowed the 5th most passing yards this season and the 5th most completions. Stafford has been quiet the past two weeks, but that all could change this Sunday.

RB-LeSean McCoy ($8,300): The Bills running back was held in check last week against the No.3 run defense in the league, but this week Shady gets a crack at the No.8 run defense (Falcons). Through 3 weeks the Falcons defense has faced the 4th fewest carries in the league, but they have allowed 4.8 yards per carry (3rd highest in the league). This plays right up McCoy’s alley. He should see a hefty load of carries on Sunday and bounce back from week 3

RB-Christian McCaffrey ($6,400): This is one of my bargain plays this week. The rookie running back should be plenty involved in the pass game for a second straight week and with a matchup against the Patriots 25th ranked run defense, he could see some daylight on the ground. I’d expect McCaffrey to notch somewhere between 14-16 touches; that should be plenty for him to post double figure fantasy points.

WR-Stefon Diggs ($7,200): The Vikings receiver was huge last week, so can he do it two weeks in a row. I am a believer, but more than that, Keenum has found a groove and the Vikings passing game has new life. Entering week 4, the Lions have allowed the 8th most receptions to opposing receivers. I like Diggs chances to push that total higher this week.

WR-Alshon Jeffery ($7,100): The Eagles are traveling out west this week and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery could be fantasy gold in DFS. That may be a little of an over exaggeration, but he should be a strong play this week against a Chargers secondary that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Jeffery is seeing a steady diet of targets each week, so he should be good to go this Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,300): In the same matchup I am just as high on the Chargers Keenan Allen. The Eagles have played pretty well through the first three weeks, but their secondary is shaky; most receptions to opposing receivers, 7th most receiving yards allowed and 11th most fantasy points. Allen is far and away the number one option in the passing game and this Sunday he should rebound from a sub-par week 3 outing.

TE-Jimmy Graham ($6,200): Last week Graham was questionable leading into the team’s week 3 matchup. He responded with a decent showing, 7 receptions for 72 yards. This week isn’t so much about Graham’s matchup against the Colts, but more rather about his 11 targets last week. The Seahawks ground attack is in neutral, so it’s safe to bet they will rely on Wilson’s arm. Graham is a favorite and should be plenty busy Sunday night.

K-Ryan Succop ($4,600): The Titans should be able to move the ball okay against the Texans this week, but being a divisional matchup this one will likely be close and involve a lot of kicking. I see the Titans entering the red-zone quite often, but may have to settle for a few kicks. At his $4,600 price, Ryan Succop is a favorite this week.

DST-Jaguars ($5,200): The Jags are on the road, but as well as their defense has played, you have to love their matchup against the Jets. The defense leads the league in sacks, and they are ranked 3rd overall. The Jets offense isn’t the worst in the league, but ranked 28th in the league this is a good fit and play for the Jags in week 4.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

Drafting gets you nowhere unless you know who to take and when. I’ve completed a large number of drafts and like when I started, there is just so much to remember. Good thing for you I like to share a lot of useless knowledge that will only confuse and bewilder you, but hey at the very least it may give you some idea what you might expect from some of these players I am about to mention. To continue with my current theme, here are the fantasy wide receivers.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

AJ Green

In Cincinnati there is wide receiver AJ Green and in the Bengals passing there is only AJ Green. Yes, there are a couple of “other guys”, but Green is the only one I am targeting and he’s someone worth taking as early as the number 7 or 8 pick in fantasy drafts. Green only played in 10 games last season, but when he exited he as the No.4 fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with 66 receptions, 964 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns; he was on his way to a monster season. He’s back, he’s healthy, and still quarterback Andy Dalton’s clear cut number one primary. Expect Green to wash, rinse, and repeat in 2017.

Brandin Cooks

No, Cooks is not the next Randy Moss in New England, but he is the first Brandin Cooks and with him he brings a lot of dynamic explosiveness and excitement to the Patriots passing game (especially with Tom Brady under center). Last season Cooks was a fantasy stud in New Orleans finishing as the No.10 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to Fantasy Data) with 78 receptions, 1,173 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Brady is an accurate deep ball thrower and Cooks seems to be a specialist in this field; I like him early and often in fantasy drafts. He’s in the same tier as AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.

Michael Thomas

The Saints 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas is someone whose basket I will be putting a lot of my eggs in. As a rookie he finished in the Top-10 for fantasy receivers in Standard and PPR leagues; he’s a lot of catches guy and a Touchdown-guy with 9 scores last season. With the departure of Cooks, there should be a few more opportunities to score. Thomas’ stock is on the rise and he’s another early receiver that’s going to have a big season. By the year end he could belong in the second tier conversation.

Alshon Jeffery

The big question for new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is can he stay healthy. A fair question yes, and if he can he’s a huge target and can easily be a Top-10 fantasy receiver. I really like Jeffery as a mid WR2 this season with some upside to go, he’s a solid 2nd receiver pick for your fantasy team. I like his quarterback, Carson Wentz (he’s up and coming). Paired with the capable receiving tight end Zach Ertz, Jeffery has a real legit shot to return to top-flite.

Demaryius Thomas

The Broncos wide receiver has been as steady as they come as far as fantasy receivers go; five straight seasons with 90 catches and 1,000 yards. It’s safe to say Thomas is about as safe a fantasy receiver pick as you can find. He’ll have his same quarterback (whom fantasy owner's hope will improve this season), so it’s reasonable to think he can match last season’s totals. Thomas is projected around the No.16 fantasy receiver this season and a favorite of mine as a mid-to-low WR2.

Travis Benjamin

Let me get this out of the way first, I love Keenan Allen and believe he’s back and in line for a big season, but another Charger receiver I am enamored with is Travis Benjamin. Benjamin has got electric speed and with quarterback Philip Rivers already displaying their big play potential in the preseason (the two connected on a 74-yarder in week 3). Benjamin started 8 games for the Chargers last season finishing with a line of 47-677-4. He’s a late round flier with potential upside that I am big on. He’s going to be available on week 1 waiver wires and fantasy owners should keep their eyes on him.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy tight ends

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th 2017

Monday afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

It’s the holiday and a great day to play fantasy football or at least draft a team and if you are like me, that’s just what you might be doing? And speaking of drafting, if that’s the case, here are a couple of more Studs and Duds to consider;

Studs (target these players)

If I am looking at an a wide receiver with an early pick, there are several that I like, but a big favorite for me this season has to be the Buccaneers Mike Evans. The Bucs 4th year wide receiver was the No. 3 fantasy receiver in 2016 (PPR format), No.1 in standard leagues. Evans has been a top flight receiver since his arrival in 2014 and last season he arrived; 96 receptions, 1,321 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. Evans has finished inside the Top-15 (PPR) twice in his three seasons and looks to be a lock to finish in the Top-5 this season. He and his quarterback Jameis Winston enjoy great chemistry and enter their third season together. I believe this season Evans takes the next step in fantasy and joins the elite.

An interesting signing in Philly this offseason has me looking at wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The former Bear will be a big target over the middle in the passing game and for young quarterback Carson Wentz, Jeffery will be an ideal red-zone threat. Jeffery looked good in the team’s third preseason game catching a couple of passes, including a score and if that’s any indication of what fantasy owners can expect, drafting Alshon early should pay dividends. Jeffery is currently going off the board around the No. 18 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to FFC); I like him here, would even consider taking him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins and Terrelle Pryor.

Duds (drafting too high)

It seems one of the hottest fantasy stocks in current drafts is the Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. I’ve heard a lot of the noise too, Andy Reid likes his guys, but remember Hunt did not win this job (not to say he’s not deserving or capable), but he is the starter now by default with running back Spencer Ware going down for the season. Hunt may in fact play very well for the Chiefs this season, but I think that’s really a little too early to call. The Chiefs still have running backs Charcandrick West and (resigned) CJ Spiller who may compete for touches. Hunt is currently going off the boards as the No. 10 fantasy back (in PPR formats according to FFC), but that’s just a little too rich and high expectation for my blood with proven runners like Todd Gurley (heavy volume), Isaiah Crowell (volume), Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde (all Top-20 last season) still on the board.

Now this may be the most controversial thus far this season for me, but I’ve seen the Jaguars passing offense and I am just wondering how rookie running back Leonard Fournette is going to find any room to run. The big back out of LSU is expected to see plenty of opportunity this season, but could be slow out of the gate dealing with a foot injury. He’s also expected to anchor the running game for a bad offense (ranked 23rd last season) that struggled on the ground (ranked 22nd in 2016). Fournette will add improvement, but the Jags also have a few other backs that could carve out small roles in the offense. For his rookie campaign, I can see Fournette finishing in the 20-24 fantasy running back range, but not at his current ADP of 3.03, the No.13 fantasy running back off the board (in PPR). He’ll fare better in standard, but he’s one player I will relax on and look to take a round or two later (if available).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 13th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

The Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is back in the saddle and after an impressive Monday night updset of the Vikings in week 8, he's looking at prime match up this Sunday. Cutler will square off with the Buccaneers today and facing a secondary that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 18 passing touchdowns (4th most allowed) he's looking at a big day. Upgrade wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Zach Miller; must starts today.

The Broncos offense and running game has been less than Super this season, but with the team traveling to New Orleans it could get healthy in a hurry. Rookie running back Devontae Booker and back up Kapri Bibbs could find some room today facing the Saints defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs, along with the third most receiving yards. It will be a committee effort, but I would have to lean with Bibbs in PPR.

A couple of injury notes and their impact...

No cornerback Aqib Talib once again for Denver, expect Saints quarterback Drew Brees to attack the Broncos secondary. Upgrade wide receivers Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks, even Willie Snead slides in as a low risk flex.

The Falcons will be without running back Tevin Coleman, so it will be a lot of Devontae Freeman out of the backfield today.

Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will not start, Bryce Petty gets the nod. Downgrade wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

WEEK 5: BUYING AND SELLING

October 11th, 2015
Sunday (NFL Week 5)

Week 5: Buying and Selling

Four weeks into the season should be plenty of sample size to figure a few things out for your Sunday fantasy football lineup, but that doesn't mean you should rest on your laurels.

You did a pretty good job drafting this year and after four weeks you're sitting in a pretty good spot, so now's the time to use your fantasy savvy to make a few tweaks and improve your championship run.

Through the first four weeks we've seen enough to know when it's time to let someone go and move on and when it's time to find value.

These are my week 5 buys and sells;

I am buying into Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, 1,187 yards passing and 9 touchdowns are enough for me to believe he's a reliable play week-in and week-out. Not only is the Red Rifle producing on the offensive side, but he's only thrown one interception in 116 attempts this season. Today may be a stiff test at home against the Seahawks, but I still believe Dalton finishes as a QB1 today.

I am also buying into running back Dion Lewis of the Patriots. Remember a running back by the name of Shane Vereen. Lewis has inherited that role as the teams lead back in the passing game and averaging 10 carries per game through the teams first three games is a great indicator he's a safe weekly play. He's also dominating the backfield with 154 offensive snaps this season, putting him on the field two-thirds of the time. Today's matchup against the Cowboys defense that allow the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs should be a great opportunity for Lewis to produce; the Cowboys have also surrendered the (tied for) third-most receptions to opposing backs.

 A couple of names that I am selling after four weeks; Bears wide reciever Alshon Jeffery (questionable today and not expected to play) and and Broncos running back CJ Anderson (just not producing).

You probably used a high pick to select Jeffery, so you don't want to give him away, but it's time to move on. Jeffery was a disappointment last season and without a top receiving threat opposite him (when he returns) you are probably not going to get back what you invested; it's time to move-on and get what you can.

Anderson is a little different. Again owners probably bought high on him and again, you need to get some return. Right now back-up running back Ronnie Hillman clearly looks like the better back and better fit for the Broncos offense. Anderson is not going to reside on the bench, he's still figure in the mix, but how long can you hang on with performances of 29, 27, 18, and 43 yards rushing? He is still relevant, so you should be able to get some return on him, but move him now before his value bottoms out.

Some plays I will be leaning on this week, start;

Justin Forsett vs the Browns D
Alfred Morris vs the Falcons D
Kendall Wright vs the Bills D
Jordan Matthew vs the Saints D

And yes I am playing Anthony Dixon versus the Titans with no Karlos Williams or LeSean McCoy.

Just my take for week 5.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Evening Edition

August 28th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Picking Favorites

Thinking Draft Strategy

So you have the first pick in your league’s draft or maybe you have one of the early picks, either way you have a decision to make; pick with your heart, your gut, or do you follow some pre-planned strategy?

What I have been noticing (and something you may be seeing as well) in the top positions, if you grab one of the big four running backs you will still be able to come back with solid receivers late in the 2^nd and early in the 3^rd round. It seems most league players are jostling for running backs early leaving time for the early picks to come back with the Alshon Jefferys, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobbs.

And what I have also noticed (in PPRs), you can still turn around in the 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th rounds and find decent value; the likes of Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, and Andre Ellington. These are the players that may not win your weekly matchup on their own, but they will give you good production every week and keep you in the hunt so your big guns can get it done.

In a recent draft I held the 2^nd pick and took Adrian Peterson. With one of the top producing backs in the league I immediately targeted receivers selecting Jordy Nelson and Alshon Jeffery. I followed those two with Roddy White and Reggie Bush; not sexy, but effective. Andrew Luck (my quarterback) was taken in the 6^th and my first tight end (Kyle Rudolph) came off the board in the 7^th.

In another draft I did tonight, I followed a similar pattern (picking in the 8^th slot) selecting receiver-receiver (Dez Bryant and Alshon) and then going running back with my next three picks; Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington, and Chris Johnson. My quarterback (Matt Ryan) and tight end (Dennis Pitta) came in the 7^th and 8^th round respectively.

If you are paying attention, then I am sure you are hearing the same thing; wait on your quarterback, there is time to take him later. Even grabbing a Brees, Manning, or Rodgers can be costly (depending on your league scoring), if taken too early. Let the other deal with that mistake and stick to your plan. The Ryans, Romos, and Cutlers are safe plays with the upside of big game potential and the Flaccos, Palmers, and Rivers will still be there even later to have your back in a jam.

With all of this said there are a lot of ideas and strategies you can follow, and any you choose is never wrong (it’s whatever works for you). But remember to stay on your game and be ready for the wild cards in the draft that can often foul things up.

No matter what happens, stay the course and draft well my friend.

Good luck this fantasy season!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Evening Edition

August 27th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

DRAFT! DRAFT! DRAFT!

Get Your Popcorn Ready!

If you have yet to start your league’s draft, then get your popcorn read, because this weekend is sure to be jam-packed filled with fantasy drafts. My annual excitement started last weekend with a marathon 30 round draft (six and half hours of time “on the clock” and endless drinking). Oh yeah, that’s the other half of the fun when drafting in a fantasy league (it’s a well-kept secret in case you were unaware).

So far through the past five days of fantasy drafting (in six leagues), the one thing I have learned you gotta be prepared. In one league where I had a chance to grab Peyton Manning early (fantasy gold), I snagged him off the boards only to realize my impulsive move turned out to be more costly than I would have normally thought.

So while I felt great about my quarterback selection, what I failed to realize was this was a three-starting receiver league. After taking running backs in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds I found myself with Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, and Justin Hunter as my starters. Now don’t get me wrong, none of these players are fantasy bums, but I am truly riding a leap of faith rolling with these three.

In another draft (8-team league) with the pickins a little deeper, I stuck to my guns. With an early pick at number 4, I grabbed DeMarco Murray and followed him with AJ Green (13^th pick) and Alshon Jeffery (20^th pick). Even though running backs were falling fast, I was still able to come back with Zac Stacy (29^th pick) in the 4^th round. I stayed away from the quarterback and took my Tight End (Julius Thomas) in the 5^th before nabbing Tony Romo; a risky proposition, but one I backed up with Carson Palmer in the 10^th round.

A couple of notable picks that I grabbed in the mid-rounds were running back Chris Johnson, wide receivers Torrey Smith and Marques Colston. These players I took later, but like their potential to have very productive seasons; top 25 respectively.

There’s plenty more to learn and plenty of time to practice the craft. With more than a week until the season starts I plan on using the available time to seek out the late round gems and fantasy sleepers that will help my teams get over the hump and pave their way to fantasy glory.

Who will you take first in your upcoming fantasy draft?

~David Ortega