FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
September 29th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 4 matchups

The Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (QB4 according Fantasy Data) has been solid this season with the league’s 2nd highest passer rating 127.9 (minimum 2 starts), behind only Patrick Mahomes. His week 4 matchup pits him against the Saints defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Lock Dak up for another solid start in Week 4.

Through the first three weeks of the 2019 season, the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (QB5 according to Fantasy Data) has been on a tear, averaging 300 yards passing and over 70 percent completions. His foe on Sunday is the Arizona Cardinals whose defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is a fantasy Road Warrior, start him.

The Chiefs will be bringing their Big Top Show to the Motor City this week and running LeSean “Shady” McCoy (RB19 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) will have a great matchup against a Lions defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. McCoy is still nursing an ankle injury, but appears ready to go and should be a safe RB2 for Week 4.

The Lions running back Kerryon Johnson (RB22 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) should be a featured focal point of the offense on Sunday when the Chiefs roll into town. The Chiefs defense has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and Lions should be trying to play keep-away with Johnson. Through the first three weeks, Johnson is averaging 17.6 touches per game; he’s likely to see that total finish north of 20, start him.

The Redskins rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin (WR11 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) leads the team with 24 targets through the first three weeks of the 2019 season. This weeks he’ll get his shot at the Giants secondary that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. As the team’s primary receiving threat, McLaurin should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; he’s a WR2 play this week.

The Chargers are on the road this Sunday to take on the Dolphins in a matchup that could go south for the Phins early. The Dolphins rookie wide receiver Preston Williams (WR51 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) has been seeing a health share of targets (23) through the first three weeks of the season. If the Dolphins can stay competitive, Williams should be heavily involved and even if this one gets away, he could see a lot of garbage time points (they still count). He’s a bye-week plug or flex play this week.

The Lions rookie tight end TJ Hockenson (TE15 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) started out the 2019 season as a nice fantasy play with a monster opener in week one, but the past couple of weeks he’s been a bit of a disappointment. This week Hockenson draws the Chiefs defense that has allowed the 5th most points to opposing tight ends. The Chiefs have also allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends which should afford Hockenson plenty of opportunities to produce. He’s a borderline TE1-TE2 this week.

The Broncos offense is need of a kickstart this week and their rookie tight end Noah Fant (TE25 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) could be the one to provide the spark. Fant will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Fant’s 11 yards per reception, ranks him 12th amongst tight ends with minimum 10 targets this season. He’s a week 4 sleeper.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2 Four Horsemen

Falcons, QB-Matt Ryan: Week one is history and in the books. After a slow start in the first half against the Vikings, Ryan managed to salvage his fantasy opener throwing for 304 yards with two scores and two picks. This week he’s home and will get to take his shots at an Eagles secondary that allowed 370 yards (ranked 28th in the League) to Case Keenum and the Redskins. With his plethora of aerial weapons, Ryan should enjoy similar success in the Sunday night showdown. While the Falcons would like to get their running game out of first gear in this matchup, I would still look for Matty-Ice to put the rock up in the air 35-plus times in this one. My prediction; 26 of 35 passing, 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Chiefs, RB-LeSean McCoy: I am buying into the narrative that Shady’s back, back again. McCoy reunites with his old coach Andy Reid who is the commander and chief of one of the most explosive offenses in the league today. While his week one return was hardly memorable for fantasy owners, it’s definitely worth noting his effectiveness and production. McCoy finished week one with 11 touches and 93 total yards of offense; that’s a ridiculous 8.5 yards per touch average. That kind of efficiency may be a little inflated, but as his usage increases, so will his production. As good as McCoy looked in week one, it’s hard to imagine not seeing his role grow with each week. The Raiders did a fair job in week one slowing down the Broncos run game (only 95 yards allowed, ranks 13th in the League), but this offense is a juggernaut and should create plenty of running lanes for Shady. My Prediction; 14 carries, 88 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 26 yards receiving, one score (rushing).

Texans, WR-DeAndre Hopkins: On any given Sunday, the Texans wideout is a stud, but this happens to be a match up that garners a little more attention. This week Hopkins, coming off a solid week one performance will be matched up against one of the leagues’ best corners, the Jaguars Jalen Ramsey. Normally a Ramsey matchup is bad news for the opposing receiver, but in the case of Hopkins such may not be true. In the past six meetings, since Ramsey has become a starter in Jacksonville, Hopkins worst performance came in their first meeting; 5 catches for 48 yards. Since that meeting, Hopkins has seen no fewer than 8 targets and averaged 6.5 receptions, 14 targets, and 83.4 yards, with touchdowns in 3 of their last 4 contests. Hopkins has generally been successful, but his skills and connections have just gotten better with each season playing with quarterback DeShaun Watson. My prediction; 8 catches, 94 yards, one touchdown, on 11 targets.

Chiefs, TE-Travis Kelce; I’m rolling with another favorite in Week two and not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs offense is clearly from another planet and even with the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, it’s hard to imagine this scoring machine slowing down. With the absence of Hill, this should open up a few more targets for Kelce who saw eight in week one. Kelce was far from efficient in the opener, only snagging three of his opportunities, but he did turn those into 88 yards receiving. I’d expect the Chiefs tight end to once again see anywhere from 8-10 targets against the Raiders with a far better outcome of completions and production. My prediction; 7 receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown, on 10 targets

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Evening Edition
September 1st, 2019

Sold! Just call me Jack

I wasn’t buying the hype at the start of the NFL Training Camps, but with the social media buzz and 2019 season outlook, it’s really tough for me to stay off the Baker Mayfield bandwagon. Sure expectations are high this season in Cleveland and sure there will be a lot of pressure, but it’s hard to deny Mayfield has the tools and now an elite weapon in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Add OBJ to the likes of wide receiver Jarvis Landry, running back Nick Chubb, and tight end David Njoku and this offense looks loaded. The Browns team may not live up to all of the Super Bowl hype this season, but this offense looks poised to put up serious fantasy numbers and with Mayfield calling the signals, I am drinking the Kool-aid even at his current ADP 66.0 overall (FFC ).

I remember it was either last season or the season before when Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was clocked with one of the fastest open field run times during a game. During week 3 preseason against the Dolphins Fournette looked spry and quick. There’s no doubt, he has the size, the power, and the tools to be a dominant runner in the league, but he needs to stay healthy. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Fournette has missed 11 games. His health would be my only hesitation, but he looked good enough to be worth risk; coming off the board at RB13 with an ADP of 24.5 (according to FFC), I’m buying me some shares.

Despite the arrival of running back Carlos Hyde to the Texans, I still expect to see Duke Johnson to play the role of the lead back. It’s a great situation and opportunity for Duke to finally showcase and prove he can be the featured back. In his college days Johnson was the bell-cow in south beach (University of Miami). In his final season with the Hurricanes Johnson logged 280 touches for 2,073 yards (1,652 rushing, 421 receiving) of total offense. It's a big step up in the NFL, but through his first four season, Johnson has yet to miss a game. I believe Duke has the talent and now the opportunity to be a Top-20 fantasy running back. I’ll buy that.

After watching the Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders return to action this preseason (the team's fourth game) and having seen some of his practice highlight footage, I am sold on the 10 year veteran. Last season Sanders was the number 23 fantasy receiver (full PPR) and returns in 2019, as the team's clear number one option. Even though the team seems to be geared more toward a run-first concept, I believe the combination of quarterback Joe Flacco-to-Sanders could result in some nice production. He’s currently at ADP 87.3, WR34 (FFC), and as good as he has looked with Flacco, he’s moving up my rankings and I will be buying what he’s selling.

I was originally buying into the running back situation in Kansas City, but with the recent changes (addition of LeSean McCoy) in the last 24 hours, I don’t have any idea where I am leaning. With these backs, I am treading lightly, although I have to believe Damien Williams will still be an integral piece of the offense.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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November 25th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

My Week 12 DFS Plays

With an exciting slate of 12 games on the board for Sunday, I am more than excited about playing me some DFS. Here are some of the names that will filter their way to my lineups for Week 12;

Duke Johnson Jr; The Browns running back posted a solid line the last time he faced the Bengals, thinking he can duplicate the type of outcome on Sunday.

LeSean McCoy; The Chiefs defense has not been great against the run of late and Shady is still one of the league’s most elusive and exciting running backs.

Tyrod Taylor; This is a full-on contrarian play for sure, but I like the odds with Taylor after being reinserted into the lineup with his matchup against an over-rated Chiefs defense. I am playing him in a stack with McCoy and Jones.

Martavis Bryant; he’s a risky boom or bust play every week, but the absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster favors his chances.

Kareem Hunt; I’d be expecting a big bounce back day after last week’s dud. Hunt has been too good this season to say quiet two consecutive weeks.

Kenny Stills; I’m not expecting quite the same day he had a week ago, but if he can post a modest 6 catches for 90 yards (or better), at his price I’d be more than happy.

Brandin Cooks; Just playing the numbers and the matchups with Cooks here. I am also making my pick based on what we saw last week. Brady and Cooks are starting to get in sync; look out opposing defensive backs.

Ben Roethlisberger; I am definitely feeling a big game from Big Ben this week. Last week’s 299 yards passing and 4 touchdowns was his best game this season, but this Sunday could be better.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

Week 8 RB Rankings

With a week 8 matchup against the Patriots this Sunday, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is slotted at the number two spot. Gordon, the No.4 fantasy RB (PPR format) has been a dual threat this season and should heavily involved in the offense on Sunday; he’s a favorite this week.

He’s the lead back in the Bengals running game and this week’s meeting against the Colts could finally be breakout week for rookie running back Joe Mixon. The Colts have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points and most rushing touchdowns (8) to opposing running backs. This could be the week Mixon tops his season high 62 rushing yards set back in week 3 and finds the end zone (for the second time this season).

The Niners allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have surrendered the most receptions and receiving yards making Wendell Smallwood a week 8 flex favorite. Smallwood hasn’t done much this season, but this Sunday could be very different.

RB Rankings

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Melvin Gordon

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Kareem Hunt

5. Ezekiel Elliott

6. Mark Ingram

7. Jordan Howard

8. Devonta Freeman

9. Alvin Kamara

10. Christian McCaffrey

11. Joe Mixon

12. Jerick McKinnon

13. Doug Martin

14. Chris Thompson

15. Ameer Abdullah

16. Lamar Miller

17. Carlos Hyde

18. James White

19. Duke Johnson

20. Latavius Murray

21. CJ Anderson

22. Tevin Coleman

23. Jalen Richard

24. Dion Lewis

25. Wendell Smallwood

26. Matt Forte

27. LeGarrette Blount

28. Bilal Powell

29. Tarik Cohen

30. Theo Riddick

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 19th 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 7 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

No need to mince words. After six weeks, we’ve seen a lot of action and we pretty much know who the studs are and who they are not. Looking ahead to Sunday, here are the studs, with the matchups I like for my Week 7 Perfect Lineup.

QB-Drew Brees

I road with Brees last week and will double-down with the Saints passer again this week. Brees and company are at home again this week and will get a Rodgers-less Packers team this Sunday. Brees is only the No.15 fantasy QB this season, so this could be a good week for him to move up the boards.

RB-LeSean McCoy

The Bills running back is coming off the bye, so he should be well rested and ready to go Sunday against the Buccaneers. McCoy hasn’t been able to break loose this season, just one 100-yard game under his belt. The Bucs were just diced up by Adrian Peterson in week 6 for 134 rushing yards, so McCoy will be hoping to bust out as well.

RB-Devonta Freeman

This has to be one of my favorite picks for the week. The Falcons get a rematch with the Patriots and one thing we’ve seen from New England, they have all kinds of issue on defense. Freeman is a versatile back and will contribute on the ground and in the air. I think he has a big night Sunday night.

WR-Julio Jones

Playing off the Patriots defensive woes, I will double-dip with wide receiver Julio Jones in this week 7 matchup. The Pats allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and it’s time for Julio to break out!

WR-Dez Bryant

The Cowboys travel out West this Sunday to face the Niners. For Dez and company, they get a shot at one of the league’s worst pass defenses and a secondary that has allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Dez has been heavily targeted this season, averaging more than 9 per game. He’ll be involved on Sunday and could be in line for a big day.

TE-Jimmy Graham

Graham is healthy and has a great matchup this week. With the Giants next on the slate, Graham will take his shots at a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including the most receiving yards (432) and most touchdowns (7).

PK-Ryan Succop

The Titans are on the road to face the Browns this week and while I like their matchup very much on Sunday, I expect several trips into the red-zone, but maybe settling for a few more kicks than they would like. Succop has been solid, among the leaders having made 16 of 17 field goals this season.

D/ST-Panthers

I am playing the odds here with this pick, going with the defense facing a rookie quarterback (Mitch Trubisky). The Panthers are on the road this week, but with Cam playing as well as he has been, if they can get up on the Bears that will put a lot of pressure on Trubisky.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 6th 2017

Friday evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch This Week

Week 4 was an exciting week filled with brilliant performances (Deshaun Watson’s 5 touchdowns), more disappointment (DeMarco Murray just 31 yards rushing and Dolphins offense zero touchdowns), lots of big plays (Bilal Powell’s 75-yards scamper for six), and plenty of excitement to catch your attention and have you looking forward to Week 5. Here are the 5 things to watch this Week;

Deshaun versus the Chiefs defense.

The Texans rookie quarterback has been brilliant the last three weeks averaging over 23.0 fantasy points per game (the No.3 fantasy QB during this stretch) and leading the Texans to two wins. In his three starts Watson has accounted for 8 total touchdowns; 6 pass, 2 rush. The Chiefs defense has been pretty good, but a stat to note and something to watch on Sunday, Watson’s mobility and ability to run. Watson leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and the Chiefs have allowed 93, 3rd most to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs will need to be careful when in coverage, because Watson has the ability to pull the ball down and take off.

Jay Cutler and Dolphins offense.

After a dismal week 4 performance it’s going to be real interesting for fantasy owners to see what the Dolphins do this week. With players like Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Jay Ajayi, and Julius Thomas, you expect quarterback Jay Cutler and company to product more than zero points. Well there matchup could not have been dialed up any better with Tennessee coming to town. Last week the Titans defense was toasted for 57 points allowed and 445 yards of offense. Landry, Parker, and Ajayi and fantasy household names, so owners will be watching to see if their players can cash in on a reeling defense.

LeSean McCoy and the Bills on the road this week.

The Bills have been on a roll this season, winning three of their first four games, including wins over the Broncos and Falcons. When you think of the Bills, you immediately think Shady and his running prowess. The funny thing is Shady has been doing it more with his hands, than his legs. His rushing numbers are down at the moment (16th ranked fantasy RB in PPR), but he’s elevated his receiving game this season with 21 receptions through 4 weeks (on a pace for 80+ catches). McCoy’s career high in catches is 78 back in 2010. Shady has a tough matchup against a stingy Bengals defense, but could once again have success as a receiver out of the backfield against a defense that has allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing running backs.

Rams-Seahawks matchup will be telling.

This game is going to be a good one to follow this Sunday. The fact it’s a divisional matchup is enough to capture interest, but the direction these two teams have been taking of late is the catalyst that will have many looking in with great interest. The Rams are 3-1 and through 4 weeks, their offense has looked leaps and bounds ahead of last season. On the other side, the Seahawks seem to be in scramble mode pasting and patching things together on the offense side. Poor line play, a struggling running game, and injuries to key skill positions have forced Wilson (the No.3 fantasy QB) to carry the load (41 pass attempts through 4 games). Can Wilson continue to be the offense for Seattle and can the Rams quarterback Jared Goff and his offense prove they are legit. A strong performance on both sides would prove their cases.

Sam Bradford’s return under center.

Quite simply, with Bradford calling the signals in week one, the Vikings offense looked formidable. Since then, the offense and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at times have been a mere shell of themselves. The reports are indicating that Bradford is on track to start Monday night. It’s a divisional matchup with the Bears on the road, so you know it’s not going to be a cakewalk at Soldier Field. The Bears will present a respectable challenge, but with Bradford back under center fantasy owners can feel better about their chances rolling out Diggs, Thielen, and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Another week of exciting DFS and this week I am liking a lot what I am rolling out for Sunday (Week 4) on Fan Duel;

QB-Matthew Stafford ($7,700): At his price I am a big fan of Stafford this week. The Vikings are stout versus the run and the Lions don’t run the ball particularly well, leaving Stafford as the best option. The Vikings defense has allowed the 5th most passing yards this season and the 5th most completions. Stafford has been quiet the past two weeks, but that all could change this Sunday.

RB-LeSean McCoy ($8,300): The Bills running back was held in check last week against the No.3 run defense in the league, but this week Shady gets a crack at the No.8 run defense (Falcons). Through 3 weeks the Falcons defense has faced the 4th fewest carries in the league, but they have allowed 4.8 yards per carry (3rd highest in the league). This plays right up McCoy’s alley. He should see a hefty load of carries on Sunday and bounce back from week 3

RB-Christian McCaffrey ($6,400): This is one of my bargain plays this week. The rookie running back should be plenty involved in the pass game for a second straight week and with a matchup against the Patriots 25th ranked run defense, he could see some daylight on the ground. I’d expect McCaffrey to notch somewhere between 14-16 touches; that should be plenty for him to post double figure fantasy points.

WR-Stefon Diggs ($7,200): The Vikings receiver was huge last week, so can he do it two weeks in a row. I am a believer, but more than that, Keenum has found a groove and the Vikings passing game has new life. Entering week 4, the Lions have allowed the 8th most receptions to opposing receivers. I like Diggs chances to push that total higher this week.

WR-Alshon Jeffery ($7,100): The Eagles are traveling out west this week and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery could be fantasy gold in DFS. That may be a little of an over exaggeration, but he should be a strong play this week against a Chargers secondary that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Jeffery is seeing a steady diet of targets each week, so he should be good to go this Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,300): In the same matchup I am just as high on the Chargers Keenan Allen. The Eagles have played pretty well through the first three weeks, but their secondary is shaky; most receptions to opposing receivers, 7th most receiving yards allowed and 11th most fantasy points. Allen is far and away the number one option in the passing game and this Sunday he should rebound from a sub-par week 3 outing.

TE-Jimmy Graham ($6,200): Last week Graham was questionable leading into the team’s week 3 matchup. He responded with a decent showing, 7 receptions for 72 yards. This week isn’t so much about Graham’s matchup against the Colts, but more rather about his 11 targets last week. The Seahawks ground attack is in neutral, so it’s safe to bet they will rely on Wilson’s arm. Graham is a favorite and should be plenty busy Sunday night.

K-Ryan Succop ($4,600): The Titans should be able to move the ball okay against the Texans this week, but being a divisional matchup this one will likely be close and involve a lot of kicking. I see the Titans entering the red-zone quite often, but may have to settle for a few kicks. At his $4,600 price, Ryan Succop is a favorite this week.

DST-Jaguars ($5,200): The Jags are on the road, but as well as their defense has played, you have to love their matchup against the Jets. The defense leads the league in sacks, and they are ranked 3rd overall. The Jets offense isn’t the worst in the league, but ranked 28th in the league this is a good fit and play for the Jags in week 4.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 RB Rankings

Running Backs (does not include Thurs)

1. Kareem Hunt

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Jay Ajayi

5. Devonta Freeman

6. Todd Gurley

7. Le’Veon Bell

8. Dalvin Cook

9. Leonard Fournette

10. DeMarco Murray

11. Melvin Gordon

12. Marshawn Lynch

13. Carlos Hyde

14. CJ Anderson

15. Lamar Miller

16. Chris Carson

17. Christian McCaffrey

18. Ameer Abdullah

19. Joe Mixon

20. Terrance West

21. Mark Ingram

22. Jonathan Stewart

23. Frank Gore

24. Chris Thompson

25. Isaiah Crowell

26. Mike Gillislee

27. Jacquizz Rodgers

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Duke Johnson

30. Javorius Allen

The Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt has been on fire to start the season and back on the big stage Monday night against the Redskins he’s looking to continue. He may find little space this week against the Redskins 4th ranked run defense, but no way is he sitting. Hunt has the big play knack and with 137 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns he has great value in PPR regardless.

I am running with Bills running back LeSean McCoy in week 4. Last week the Broncos number three ranked run defense had the no.17 fantasy runner boxed up, but this week McCoy gets the Falcons. It should be easier sledding for the Bills ball carrier facing a Falcons defense that ranks 8th, but has seen the 4th fewest carries and allows the 3rd most yards per carry.

I am not down on Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell this week, just keeping his numbers real at No. 7 this week. Bell is currently ranked as the No.15 fantasy running back, but should do well this week facing the Ravens 18th ranked run defense.

I’ve move Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch down a few spots this week, but owners proceed with caution. The Broncos run defense has been stout through three weeks, no reason to see this change. Yards will be hard to find, but Lynch will see the lionshare and could get some goal line work for an short score.

In the same game, I am not real high on Broncos running back CJ Anderson. He’ll likely see his usual workload, but what could derail his efforts is Jamaal Charles. If Charles gets into the game and has early success, he could cut into Anderson’s carries.

I’ve moved Redskins running back Chris Thompson up to No.24 this week, but don’t be surprised if he cracks the Top-20. Thompson has been on fire the past two weeks and as the rest of the offense heats up, Thompson’s upside skyrockets. Last week Thompson recorded 14 touches, expect the Redskins to try and get him to that number again this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega