FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Line up

(NFL.com)

I am just like most fantasy football nuts, I love to play the games and all of the games. Every week I take my shots and let the Hail Marys fall where they may and included is the weekly Perfect Lineup on the NFL site. My track record has not been great of late, as I like to play the numbers, mixed in with a little bit gut-feelings and intuition. Last week my team tanked big, but that’s the great thing about fantasy, there’s another week to play until there isn’t. Here are my picks for Week 12;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; The expectation is this offense is going to breakout at some point and while 40 points last week and subsequently a nice passing day from Big Ben (299 yards and 4 touchdowns) would be good indicators, that type of game falls a little short. It’s a great start nonetheless and has generated some buzz, but my gut is telling me this week is the boom week for Big Ben and the offense; bigger than last week.

RB-Kareem Hunt; Last week the hopes were high for Hunt and the Chiefs offense, but unfortunately there was only disappointment. This week owners will be singing a different tune with Hunt and company taking on the (Bills) worst run defense in the league over the past month.

RB-Mark Ingram; The Saints starting running back Mark Ingram is the league’s No.6 RB in standard and PPR, but over the past two weeks he’s number one. Ingram has lead the charge in his last two games with 287 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns and Sunday he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs for the season.

WR-TY Hilton; Over the past month, only one defense against opposing wide receivers has been worse than the Titans. In the last four weeks the Titans defense has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns (6) and fantasy points to opposing receivers. This sounds like a very good matchup for wide receiver TY Hilton and with his quarterback Jacoby Brissett cleared for Sunday, all signs point toward big day.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons receiver is healthy this week or as healthy as he’s been this season and it comes in time for fantasy owners. The Falcons draw the Bucs this week and their 29th ranked pass defense and a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards, most receptions, and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; The Patriots tight end was held in check a week ago with just three catches for 12 yards, but Gronk still managed to find the end zone. I would expect a healthier Gronk to enjoy greater success this week against the Dolphins. Gronk is always a Brady favorite in the red zone and could be looking at one of his multi-touchdown weeks.

PK-Justin Tucker; I am expecting the Ravens offense to have some great success moving the ball and as per usual of the offense this season, they will be calling on the sure footed Justin Tucker.

Steelers Defense; This looks like great matchup for the Steelers defense, a home matchup against a backup quarterback (Brett Hundley) that has been struggling. Hundley is coming off a three-pick performance a week ago. Look for the Steelers defense to turn up the heat and bring lots of pressure, early and often.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 12th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Week 10 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

With the games set to start in less than two hours, not a lot of time to reflect, so I’ll just give you the short version. The highlights of my week 9 picks include quarterback Drew Brees and his 18.7 fantasy points (not very Brees-like) and the Cardinals defense with 13.0 fantasy points. The low-lights include Titans running back DeMarco Murray (4.1 fantasy points) and Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (6.5 fantasy points). All-in-all, not a good week, so let’s look at Week 10;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; it’s time for Big Ben to breakout this season, and today’s matchup against the Colts to lend to that trend. Ben gets Martavis Bryant back and with JuJu, Antonio, and Le’Veon, he looks poised for a big passing day.

RB-Todd Gurley; the Rams running back is having a solid campaign, he’s the No.1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. The Texans have been good against the run, but Gurley (29 receptions) also contributes in the passing game.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears runner has been solid this season as the league’s number five running back (662 yards rushing). He should see an avalanche of carries today and find the end zone once or twice.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons receiver has been relatively quiet this season, as far as Julio numbers go, today could be a breakout day against the Cowboys. He’s sure to see double digit targets and could put up monster numbers.

WR-Marvin Jones Jr; like the other Jones, this Jones could be a busy receiver today. With the Lions run game pretty much stuck in neutral, I like Jones to continue his upward trending with more targets and big plays today.

TE-Evan Engram; the Giants will be on the road, but against the Niners today may not make much difference. A poor Niners run defense could land the Giants in the red zone a number of times today, setting up some favorable chances for Engram to find paydirt.

PK-Ryan Succop; the Titans offense has struggled with scoring this season and with the lack of a dominant run game, I see a few drives stalling in the red-zone. Succop is the No.6 fantasy kicker having made 21 of 23 field goals this season.

D/ST-Bears; the Bears defense will be facing a backup quarterback with a home game, what’s not to like. Add the fact that the Bears defense has been playing very well of late, this is a tasty matchup.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 5th 2017

Sunday evening Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 9

(NFL.com)

Week 9 has begun and it’s time to roll out my Perfect Lineup for this Sunday, but first let’s see how my team looked last week. From the top to the bottom, here’s what we did; QB-Wentz (finished 8th in PPR scoring), RB-Bell (finished 17th), RB-Howard (15th), WR-Green (finished 22nd), WR-Allen (32nd), TE-Gronkowski (4th), PK-Elliott (11th), and D/ST-Bengals (8th). Overall it was not a great day.

Looking ahead, here we go with week 9;

QB-Drew Brees; you have to love Brees at home where he is always tough and the Bucs have big problems this season versus the pass.

RB-Adrian Peterson; the Cards are going to have to become a run first team and we’ve seen what Peterson can do. The Niners are not good against the run, a big day for Peterson awaits.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back has had extra time to heal up coming off the bye and the Ravens defense has not been shut down against the run. Murray has only one 100-yard game this season, will be looking for his 2nd today.

WR-Dez Bryant; the matchup today with the Chiefs could be a high scoring affair. Even with Elliott in the lineup today, I think Dez is going to be involved in the plan to attack a secondary that has struggled mightily this season.

WR-Michael Thomas; just going to ride the coattails of Drew Brees with this one. Thomas is the team’s leading receiver and if Brees has a big game, there’s a good chance he’ll be a big part.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end is coming off a big game, but has also emerged as a big part of the offense. This could be another big day for Doyle.

PK-Harrison Butker; the Chiefs-Cowboys today, could be a shootout. I happen to think the Chiefs may stumble a couple of times in the red-zone today, allow a few extra opportunities for Butker.

D/ST-Cardinals; the Niners appear to be in rebuild, no Pierre Garcon, questions in the backfield, and CJ Beathard has to know, he’s not the guy. Although it’s a road game for the Cards, I like to defense to have a big game today.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 8

(NFL.com)

Just a quick week 7 review, Brees was my quarterback last week and he finished No.10, my running backs were McCoy and Freeman, both finished No.2 and No.19 respectively; not bad, but certainly not great. My receivers were Julio and Dez, No.4 and No.9 a vast improvement, and Jimmy Graham (No.6 fantasy TE) wasn’t far off.

For a perfect lineup (standard scoring), a bit off the pace no doubt, but not a bad DFS play (if the salaries work). My Kicker and D/ST were both decent, finishing 7th for Week 7. Final results for week 7, probably not too bad, but we are certainly looking for more from my Week 8 picks;

QB-Carson Wentz; the Eagles quarterback has been on fire of late and with a golden matchup with the Niners at home, he has to be this week’s favorite at QB. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB with 17 touchdowns and 260 yards passing per game.

RB-Le’Veon Bell; the Steelers running back has been the focal point of the offense all season and that’s not changing this week. Bell is averaging nearly 29 touches per game and the Lions

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back has been running like thunder through opposing defenses this season with 560 rushing yards (ranks 5th in the league). He’s only the No.14 fantasy RB (in PPR), but I feel good about his matchup against the Saints this week. Remember, last week the Saints allowed 131 yards rushing to Packers running back Aaron Jones.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals passing game starts and finishes with Green. He’s the No.6 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and looks to improve his ranking this week against the Colts. Colts allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 6th most over the past 4 weeks; looking good for AJ on Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen; the Chargers receiver is one of the most targeted receivers in the league with 68 this season (3rd most). The Patriots have played well this season, but they will have all they can handle trying to cover Allen and the rest of the Chargers receivers. Allen is the go-to, so I expect to see him post numbers on Sunday.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; Gronk has been quiet of late and regardless of the matchup, he’s always has a chance to blow up. I am just taking a shot here and playing the odds. Gronk is still the No.2 fantasy TE this season, but has only scored in double-digit fantasy points in 3 of 6 games and last week he only posted 8.10 fantasy points (in PPR).

PK-Jake Elliott; let’s face it the Eagles are going to score a lot on Sunday against the Niners. I like Elliott’s chances to hit a couple of chip shots and posting double digit points on Sunday.

D/ST-Bengals defense; just playing the numbers with this matchup. The Bengals have a sound defense and they are at home this week. The Bengals will matchup against a Colts offense that ranks 28th in the league in Total Offense and they in turn are the No.2 defense this season. Something’s gotta give, so rolling with Cincy.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 19th 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 7 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

No need to mince words. After six weeks, we’ve seen a lot of action and we pretty much know who the studs are and who they are not. Looking ahead to Sunday, here are the studs, with the matchups I like for my Week 7 Perfect Lineup.

QB-Drew Brees

I road with Brees last week and will double-down with the Saints passer again this week. Brees and company are at home again this week and will get a Rodgers-less Packers team this Sunday. Brees is only the No.15 fantasy QB this season, so this could be a good week for him to move up the boards.

RB-LeSean McCoy

The Bills running back is coming off the bye, so he should be well rested and ready to go Sunday against the Buccaneers. McCoy hasn’t been able to break loose this season, just one 100-yard game under his belt. The Bucs were just diced up by Adrian Peterson in week 6 for 134 rushing yards, so McCoy will be hoping to bust out as well.

RB-Devonta Freeman

This has to be one of my favorite picks for the week. The Falcons get a rematch with the Patriots and one thing we’ve seen from New England, they have all kinds of issue on defense. Freeman is a versatile back and will contribute on the ground and in the air. I think he has a big night Sunday night.

WR-Julio Jones

Playing off the Patriots defensive woes, I will double-dip with wide receiver Julio Jones in this week 7 matchup. The Pats allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and it’s time for Julio to break out!

WR-Dez Bryant

The Cowboys travel out West this Sunday to face the Niners. For Dez and company, they get a shot at one of the league’s worst pass defenses and a secondary that has allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Dez has been heavily targeted this season, averaging more than 9 per game. He’ll be involved on Sunday and could be in line for a big day.

TE-Jimmy Graham

Graham is healthy and has a great matchup this week. With the Giants next on the slate, Graham will take his shots at a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including the most receiving yards (432) and most touchdowns (7).

PK-Ryan Succop

The Titans are on the road to face the Browns this week and while I like their matchup very much on Sunday, I expect several trips into the red-zone, but maybe settling for a few more kicks than they would like. Succop has been solid, among the leaders having made 16 of 17 field goals this season.

D/ST-Panthers

I am playing the odds here with this pick, going with the defense facing a rookie quarterback (Mitch Trubisky). The Panthers are on the road this week, but with Cam playing as well as he has been, if they can get up on the Bears that will put a lot of pressure on Trubisky.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 6 Sunday Perfect Lineup

The Weekly Perfect lineup contest is a lot of fun, but usually its always hit and miss and unfortunately I never hit all and usually miss all, Haha. Well here we go with my Perfect Lineup picks for Week 6;

QB- Drew Brees

The trend is always go with good matchups. Maybe the Lions defense has been pretty good this season, but a couple of things here to consider; one Brees is at home, always tough and two, the Lions were just torched by quarterback Cam Newton last week. Whatever deficiencies existing in the secondary, you know Saints quarterback Drew Brees is watching the tape and will look to exploit.

RB-Melvin Gordon

I have Mel G in a couple of leagues, so maybe this is wishful thinking, but Gordon is coming off a great Week 5 game (163 total yards) against a soft run defense and this week he gets the Raiders (ranked 25th against the run). The Chargers ball carrier is the featured back and averaging 18+ touches per game, with a prime matchup on Sunday, only good things.

RB-Todd Gurley

The Rams running back is having a great season, currently the No.2 fantasy RB in PPR. He's the 3rd leading rusher in the league with 405 rushing yards and he has 7 total touchdowns. Gurley gets the Jaguars 31st ranked run defense on Sunday which could mean a big day.

WR-Mike Evans

One of the league’s top talents at the receiver spot, Evans has been quiet the past two weeks and he is currently residing at the No.23 fantasy WR spot in PPR. This week however, Evans will get a crack at a leaky 21st ranked Cardinals pass defense. The Cardinals secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 7 touchdowns.

WR-Keenan Allen

Right now Keenan is the No.13 fantasy WR in PPR, he has 28 receptions on 52 targets. I love his volume and believe the efficiency will improve. This week he faces the Raiders 15th ranked pass defense that's allowed the (tied for) 5th most pass plays of 20 yards or more at 16. It was 2 seasons ago (week 7 2015), but the last time Allen faced the Raiders he pulled in 9 passes for 89 yards.

TE-Austin Seferian-Jenkins

The Jets tight end has collected 15 passes in his three games this season. This weeks matchup against the Patriots is a favorable one. The Patriots allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered 4 touchdowns.

PK-Justin Tucker

The Ravens offense has struggled mightily this season, limiting Tuckers chances through five weeks. However, last week against the Raiders, Tucker was 3 for 3 with three extra points. The Ravens should be able to move the ball against the Bears, but could have to settle for a couple of chips shots once again. Look for Tucker to turn in another solid Sunday.

Broncos defense

The Broncos defense are ranked number one overall, they are number one against the run, Sunday night is a home game against the Giants. The Giants run game has been non-existent and they've lost two of their three top receivers for the season. I'd say, this one looks pretty good.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 1st, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition

My Perfect Lineup

With one week left to play regular season fantasy, here is my Draftday Perfect Lineup.

QB-Matt Ryan - Ryan has been hot all season and today he gets a Saints defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

RB-David Johnson - Johnson has been the Cardinals MVP this season, so you have to wonder how long he’ll play. Regardless, while he’s in there he should dominate touches and could find the end zone a couple of times.

RB-Bilal Powell - Bills run defense has been awful this season, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks and Powell will get his crack at them today.

WR-Julio Jones - With Ryan playing as well as he has, when healthy Jones has been a monster. He’s back today and the Saints defense should be scared.

WR-Jordy Nelson - the Packers wideout has looked like his old self of late and today he faces the Lions defense that has surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

WR-Michael Thomas - the Saints-Falcons games is lining up to be a high scoring affair today and with Brees tossing the pigskin, any of his receivers has a chance at a big game. Expect Thomas to add to his 8 touchdown total.

TE-Travis Kelce - the Chiefs tight end has been a force at times and averaging better than 9 targets per game over his last six, he’s in line for another busy and productive Sunday.

PK-Justin Tucker - the Ravens kicker has been money all season. The Bengals may keep the Flacco and company out of the end zone, but Tucker will put points on the board.

DEF-Broncos - no Derek Carr today, coming off a humiliating loss, and having lost the first matchup with the Raiders this season, expect Wade Phillips to stack the line and turn the dogs loose today.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd, 2016
Sunday Edition

Week 7: Perfect Lineup

Like many of you that play season long fantasy, I also partake in the Daily Fantasy sports and like rolling with the free to play "Perfect Lineup" contest on the DraftDay site (I also play the NFL Challenge).

Here's my week 7 picks for DraftDay;

QB-Rolling with Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has been a cold-blooded assasin in fantasy this season with 4-300 yard games under his belt and 15 touchdowns. He'll get the 24th ranked pass defense today at home.

RB-The Chiefs running back Spencer Ware will get his shot today against one of the leagues worst run defense (the Saints) that also allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 10 rushing touchdowns (most in the league). Ware should get plenty of touches today to do some real damage.

RB-The Titans have a real workhorse now in running back DeMarco Murray. Over his last three starts he's averaging more than 24 carries per game and facing the leagues 25th ranked run defense he could be in for a nice game.

WR-AJ Green. Dalton's favorite will see a truck load of targets today.
WR-Michael Crabtree. He's become a touchdown maker with 5 on the season.
WR-Golden Tate. He's coming off a big game last week, just looking for the encore performance this week. Still one of Staffords' go-to.
TE-Rob Gronkowski. With Brady back the sky's the limit for Gronk.
K-Justin Tucker. He's been money all season; 15 for 15, ranked 4th among fantasy kickers.
DST-Vikings. The defense is just nasty and will get to feast on the rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega