FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Line up

(NFL.com)

I am just like most fantasy football nuts, I love to play the games and all of the games. Every week I take my shots and let the Hail Marys fall where they may and included is the weekly Perfect Lineup on the NFL site. My track record has not been great of late, as I like to play the numbers, mixed in with a little bit gut-feelings and intuition. Last week my team tanked big, but that’s the great thing about fantasy, there’s another week to play until there isn’t. Here are my picks for Week 12;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; The expectation is this offense is going to breakout at some point and while 40 points last week and subsequently a nice passing day from Big Ben (299 yards and 4 touchdowns) would be good indicators, that type of game falls a little short. It’s a great start nonetheless and has generated some buzz, but my gut is telling me this week is the boom week for Big Ben and the offense; bigger than last week.

RB-Kareem Hunt; Last week the hopes were high for Hunt and the Chiefs offense, but unfortunately there was only disappointment. This week owners will be singing a different tune with Hunt and company taking on the (Bills) worst run defense in the league over the past month.

RB-Mark Ingram; The Saints starting running back Mark Ingram is the league’s No.6 RB in standard and PPR, but over the past two weeks he’s number one. Ingram has lead the charge in his last two games with 287 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns and Sunday he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs for the season.

WR-TY Hilton; Over the past month, only one defense against opposing wide receivers has been worse than the Titans. In the last four weeks the Titans defense has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns (6) and fantasy points to opposing receivers. This sounds like a very good matchup for wide receiver TY Hilton and with his quarterback Jacoby Brissett cleared for Sunday, all signs point toward big day.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons receiver is healthy this week or as healthy as he’s been this season and it comes in time for fantasy owners. The Falcons draw the Bucs this week and their 29th ranked pass defense and a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards, most receptions, and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; The Patriots tight end was held in check a week ago with just three catches for 12 yards, but Gronk still managed to find the end zone. I would expect a healthier Gronk to enjoy greater success this week against the Dolphins. Gronk is always a Brady favorite in the red zone and could be looking at one of his multi-touchdown weeks.

PK-Justin Tucker; I am expecting the Ravens offense to have some great success moving the ball and as per usual of the offense this season, they will be calling on the sure footed Justin Tucker.

Steelers Defense; This looks like great matchup for the Steelers defense, a home matchup against a backup quarterback (Brett Hundley) that has been struggling. Hundley is coming off a three-pick performance a week ago. Look for the Steelers defense to turn up the heat and bring lots of pressure, early and often.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday At A Glance

(Just My Takes)

DeAndre Hopkins is a PPR Machine

Through the first four weeks of the season, the Texans leading receiver leads the league with 49 targets and his 31 receptions this season ranks first in the league. With his quarterback starting to emerge as a playmaker and capable signal caller there seems no ceiling for Hopkins going forward. He is the current No.3 fantasy WR in PPR, and looks to continue his climb. He’ll have some tough Sundays ahead, but he’s once again a must start every week.

Jared Goff and Rams offense look legit & 

Gurley is Top-5

We are one quarter of the way through the 2017 season and while it feels like it still may be too soon to say, it’s equally hard to deny how good this Rams team is, especially the offense. Goff still has a lot of growing to do, but he’s on the right track currently ranked as the No.10 fantasy QB. The offense will only go as far as Goff, as will running back Todd Gurley. Goff’s strong play has opened up opportunity for Gurley which he has responded; through 4 weeks Gurley is ranked as the No.1 fantasy RB (in PPR, 2nd in standard).

Le’Veon Bell dominates Week 4; Is he No.1 

Fantasy RB

Not only did the Steelers ball carrier dominate the field of play, he dominated the offense with 39 touches. It’s doubtful that Bell will continue to see this hefty a workload every week, but there’s no question of his durability and toughness. Last week Bell total 186 yards with 2 scores against a tough Ravens defense. Bell is currently the No.6 fantasy RB in PPR, with matchups against the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Bengals next he’ll be looking to climb to the top.

Alvin Kamara is rising to the top

It may look like Adrian Peterson is out of place in New Orleans, but rookie running back Alvin Kamara looks like a perfect fit. Through the team’s first four games Kamara has logged as much time on the field as starter Mark Ingram. Ingram has been the team’s primary ball carrier in the early part of the season, but Kamara has shown his chops in the pass game logging 20 receptions for 147 yards receiving and touchdown. Both Kamara and Ingram are good options in fantasy, with Ingram holding a slight advantage, but the gap is closing and more touches are in Kamara’s future.

Ameer Abdullah is proving to be steady

Over the past three weeks running back Ameer Abdullah has totaled 281 yards of offense, adding 6 catches and a touchdown. He’s not exactly lighting up the board at the moment, but after putting 94 yards on the 5th ranked run defense (Vikings) last Sunday he’s steady. He’s the No.22 fantasy RB in PPR and should be in starting lineups in 12-14 leagues.

Is Giovani Bernard the best back in Cincy?

After a few weeks of watching the Bengals offense struggle their way to a 1-3 record, no question the offense has issues. This past week the Dalton gang got the passing game off the ground and their 23rd ranked running game stalled again. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has taken over the starting duties, but that has not helped the running game get out of first gear. In four games this season Bernard leads the backfield in total yards with 223; 9 more yards than Mixon, but with 37 fewer touches. It may be time to give Bernard a bigger role in the offense.

It’s All Pass and No Run in New England

There’s a lot for the Patriots to worry about on defense these days, but another thing to take notice is the lack of balance of offense. Tom Brady and company are number one in the league in the air and only 20th on the ground. Mike Gillislee (194 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns) has emerged as the only viable (standard league) option in the ground game, while James White (22 receptions and 173 yards) is the PPR play. With Tom Brady (1,399 yards passing) leading the NFL far and way in passing yards, his receiver situation is a little tougher to read. With Amendola, Cooks, and Hogan available, each week it’s not easy to determine a pecking order; they are all in play. Cooks seems to be the deep threat, but even his contributions are guaranteed; just three catches for 38 yards last week and only one big week thus far this season.

The Broncos biggest weakness on defense 

is their Quarterback

Right now the Broncos defense looks pretty formidable; ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (allowing just 2.4 yards per carry best in the league) and of course everyone is familiar with their “No Fly Zone.” The defense is going to give this team a chance to win every week, but where it will struggle is on offense. The Broncos quarterback started out strong this season, but his last two efforts have been forgetful. Siemian hasn’t been terrible, but while the running game has been solid (3rd in the NFL) the passing game is lacking (21st in the league). Until Siemian get the aerial attack off the ground two things; eventually defenses are going to force the offense to be one dimensional and the other Thomas and Sanders will see their numbers drop (as evident on Sunday)

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 15th 2017

Friday Morning Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

As we enter the second week of the NFL there are always little things each week to keep an eye for and to watch. With week 2 quickly approaching, here are five things I’ll be looking for on Sunday;

#1 Quarterback Jameis Winston

If you been watching this season’s “Hard Knocks” you’ve been following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Jameis Winston. The 3rd year signal caller has been working hard and looks poised and ready to take the next step this season. The Bucs are at home this week facing the Bears and I would have to say the expectation is to see great things from Winston. This will be a favorable matchup against a secondary that allowed over 300 yards passing to Matt Ryan in week 1. I am watching Winston on Sunday.

#2 Vikings Offensive line (Sam Bradford)

In week one the headlines were all about quarterback Sam Bradford’s numbers and the passing game, but a big key to his success starts and ends with his offensive line. Bradford is a former number one draft pick (2010 draft), so someone believed the kid could play at a high level. I believe we saw some of that last Monday night. Bradford’s past struggles can easily be connected to playing on poor offenses and bad teams. The Vikings looked to be a complete team Monday night and as long as the line can protect Bradford and keep him healthy, we could see a lot more of repeat performances of week 1. I’ll be watching the Vikings line on Sunday against the Steelers.

#3 Adrian Peterson

The Saints running game last Monday looked like a train wreck. It seemed head coach Sean Payton was too much trying to juggle his three backs (Peterson, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara) and was struggling to figure out how to use them. You’ve read it, heard it, and I’ll say here too, Peterson looks out of place in this offense. Unless Payton commits to using Peterson more, 9 plays isn’t going to do anything for fantasy owners. Last week Payton definitely favored the rookie (Kamara), but Ingram stayed just as involved. I’ll be watching Peterson closely on Sunday against the Patriots.

#4 Jay Cutler & Devante Parker

This will be week 1 for the Dolphins and a passing combination that owners and myself will be very interested in seeing; Jay Cutler to Devante Parker. The Dolphins made an offseason scramble to pick up Cutler to replace their injured starter Ryan Tannehille. The move seemed sensible reuniting with (head coach) Adam Gase and to fantasy owners this offers a lot of upside for Parker ( a speedier version of Alshon Jeffery). There are a lot of questions with Cutler, but what he showed in the preseason left owners with some promise. This Sunday my focus will be on the duo and hopefully we see some of their big play potential.

#5 Kirk Cousins (& Redskins offense)

Lastly, the fifth thing for me to watch on Sunday will be Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousin and the offense. Coming out of the preseason, there were some discussions about their struggles and hints that it could take a while for the pieces to fall into place. This was quite evident in week one against the Eagles as Cousins completed only 57 percent of his passes, was sacked four times, and the offense only scored 17 points. What will be most interesting to watch is Kirk Cousins under pressure this week facing a tough front four that will feature the return of Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Cousins’ is going to have to make good decisions and get rid of the ball quickly, chemistry with his receivers will be at a premium and I will be watching.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 23rd 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

We are inching ever so closer to your fantasy draft day or in many cases your next fantasy draft day. As you prepare for your next draft, even with one or more in the books, you can never get enough fantasy info or nuggets.

Now I can honestly say I didn’t pull any of these off the McDonald’s menu, but I will do my best to keep this as informative as I can. And with that, more players I like to add to your fantasy watch list.

The Lions will see the return of a healthy Ameer Abdullah this season (14 games missed last year). Abdullah is a talented runner that will give the Lions backfield a needed boost; team ranked 30th in rushing last season. There’s only been a small sample size of Abdullah since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft, but a lot of analysts, including this fan like his opportunity and upside this year. Abdullah should be in line for the majority of the early down work this season, but don’t be fooled he’s more than a capable pass-catching back. You can wait on this kid a few rounds, right now his ADP is 5.07, he’s going off the board as the RB26 (according to FFC).

Another running back that you can wait on for a few rounds is the Saints Mark Ingram. With the arrival and influence of Adrian Peterson Ingram has an ADP of 5.09, going off the board as the RB27 (according to FFC). Last season Ingram played in all 16 games and started 14, finishing with 1,043 yards rushing, 46 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns, good enough for the number 10 fantasy running back. Right now he is being greatly undervalued going where he’s currently being drafted, which is why I like Ingram so much.

Even with his three-game suspension to start the season looming, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is making enough noise in camp for me to believe when he returns, he’ll eventually (if not right away) resume his starting duties. Martin is healthy now, coming off an injury-shortened 2016 season, and even though he was not having a great campaign, he was on pace to finish around the RB22 fantasy back. Currently Martin has an ADP of 5.01, the RB23 going off the board (according to FFC), but he has looked very good this preseason and in camp. WE know Martin has upside, finishing as the RB3 in 2015. I am one who believes in his talent and ability and think if you take him this late, there’s plenty of good value here.

Speaking of running back Adrian Peterson, he’s back and with his return there’s a lot of questions and concerns, but this being fantasy football, there’s a lot of hope too. Everyone knows when healthy, All-Day is as good as they come and when healthy he’s a top 10 fantasy running back; top-10 eight times since 2007 (standard leagues according to Fantasydata), including number one in 2012. Peterson is now 32, in a new system, and figures to be in a timeshare with Mark Ingram. His volume is the big question, but there’s little doubt of his talent. I don’t think you can go wrong taking him beyond the 3rd round. Where he’s currently going (ADP of 4.12, the number RB22, according to FFC), puts him around a late RB2 or an early RB3; which is where I like him. He’s a mid-to-late 4th rounder with potential home run upside.

Interesting Late Grabs

There have been quite a few changes in New Orleans in the off-season, but one change that has caught my eye is the addition of Ted Ginn Jr. He joins an offense that has one of the league’s premiere deep ball throwers and accurate passers. Ginn has never really been a high volume receiver, but he is coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 95 targets, averaging 49 receptions. If he can see similar volume this season in New Orleans (last season the Saints number 3 receiver saw 104 targets), he’ll definitely improve his number 47 fantasy receiver from last year. With an ADP of 12.04, going off the board as the WR55, Ginn is virtually free and a late round flier I am high on.

  

Until we see how Jamaal Charles looks on the field, the best we can invest in him is a late round dart throw. He’s healthy now, but the Broncos have yet to turn him loose, so there should be pause. I’d expect when he hits the field, the needle will move a great deal in either direction; shoot up the draft board or go undrafted. If you are drafting before Saturday, he’s one of my favorite picks as a late or last round flier. The current word around the watercooler is he’s not expected to see a high volume of work this season (assuming he makes the team), maybe 8-10 touches, but I believe all this could change if he has success. And the biggest thing currently, with the exception of the team’s 6th round draft selection running back DeAngelo Henderson, there’s not a whole lot going on with the team’s running game.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

August 27th, 2015
Thursday

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

With my next fantasy draft coming up in a couple of days, the emphasis in this next draft is PPR and no position will be more important than my backfield. 

As many of may be hearing and seeing, even with the recent onslaught of injuries and suspensions the wide receiver still seems to be the deepest it's ever been. Quite simply fantasy owners can not escape the fact that the running back is by far the highest contact skill position, providing the biggest risk; drafting depth always is and will once again be a premium in PPR or standard leagues.

With my upcoming draft, I am focusing on production yes, but just as important in my thought process is opportunity. In fantasy, opportunity is the prelude to utilization and production.

What I am looking for in my top targets, touches, targets, and production. With this criteria in mind as I prepare for my draft, here are my top running backs to target;

2014 numbers:
Jamaal Charles, KC - 206 carries, 40 receptions, 59 targets (265 chances)
Le'Veon Bell, PIT - 290 carries, 83 receptions, 105 targets (395 chances)
Arian Foster, HOU - 260 carries, 38 receptions, 59 targets (319 chances)
Mark Ingram, NO - 226 carries, 29 receptions, 36 targets (262 chances)
Lamar Miller, MIA - 216 carries, 38 receptions, 52 targets (268 chances)
Justin Forsett, BAL - 235 carries, 44 receptions, 59 targets (294 chances)
Andre Ellington, ARI - 201 carries, 46 receptions, 64 targets (265 chances)


Last season was a bit of a down season for Charles and based on his total chances in 2014, I only see that number increasing a lot.

Bell was a fantasy stud in 2014 and despite the two game suspension to start this season, he should be able to improve upon these numbers from a year ago.

Foster is someone I am looking at trying to steal early. His numbers may taper back a bit this season due to the early injury, but once he's healthy he'll see volume and produce.

Ingram is someone I think I am likely to value higher than most. I believe he can be a bell-cow in New Orleans and with no Immy Graham, the Saints offense will have a more conservative look this season.

Playing in what should be an improved offense, behind a rising star quarterback I can only see Miller continuing his ascent as one of the more reliable runners in the league.

Forsett is another one of those backs I may be valuing higher than most. I watched a lot of his games last season and I am a believer in his skills. He may lose some goal line touches to a bigger back, but he's still going to see plenty of work in the pass game.

I don't really like chasing sleepers and I am not sure that these backs would be considered, but Doug Martin  (missed 5 games last season) in Tampa and Rashad Jennings (208 chances in 11 games) are a pair that I will target in mid-rounds to add depth.

Just my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
November 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Spiller to Carry the Load
With running back Fred Jackson sidelined this week with a concussion, CJ Spiller will not only start but likely carry the load. Spiller has been a consistent flex option all season, but his new starter status has likely vaulted him to the top of the charts as a lead RB1 option this week. The Bills take play Thursday night and take on the Dolphins 5th ranked run defense, fortunately for owners Spiller has been effective in both the run and pass game; he’s a safe start in week 11.

Run-DMC Likely Out Again
The Raiders will not have the services of running back Darren McFadden once again this week as he nurses his injured ankle. With Run-DMC sidelined full back Marcel Reece is the preferred fantasy selection from the Raiders backfield. With the Raiders set to host the Saints defense this Sunday, Reece has a nice matchup against one of the league’s worst defenses; the Saints also surrender the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.

The Steelers Carrying a Full-House
With Mendenhall returning to a full practice this week, the Steelers are shaping up to have all three of their bruising running backs ready for Sunday. With Mendenhall, Redman, and Dwyer all figuring in the mix; the smart money would be on running back Jonathan Dwyer to get first look. It’s a tough dilemma and a tough read for fantasy owners and one best to avoid if possible.

Sproles Looks Ready to Return 
The Saints running back Darren Sproles returned to practice this week and looks on track to play this Sunday. With the recent strong running of backs Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram, the backfield now appears to be a little overcrowded. Even with the crowded backfield, Sproles is the favorite to see plenty of action, but his best value is in PPR formats.

Vick Likley Out, Foles Expected to Start This Sunday
It’s not official, but all signs are pointing to rookie quarterback Nick Foles starting this Sunday. If Foles does in fact start, the fantasy impact could be a lot of running back LeSean McCoy. While the team will want to see what Foles can do, the rookie will need protection and his safety net could be running back McCoy. The Eagles ball carrier is a dynamic and crafty runner with blazing speed and exceptional vision, but through 9 games this season he has just two touchdowns and eclipsed 20 carries just three times. Expect McCoy to see a lot of work this week.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: PLAY OR PASS

September 8TH, 2011 Thurssday


PLAY OR PASS


Saints versus Packers

There’s not a whole lot of thinking required in tonight’s matchup for fantasy owners. When you have two of the league’s premier offenses taking the field; you have to start just about everyone don’t you?

That may be par for the course, but for the most part it is true. There’s not a whole lot of down side to starting any Packer or Saint in tonight’s marquee matchup. When you look at both offenses, they stock a lot of weapons and plenty of ammo.

Both quarterback Drew Brees and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are locks in fantasy lineups with expectations of big games for both. Their targets may differ slightly, but both will have plenty of options to choose from.

PLAY

It doesn’t take a genius to dissect the strong plays for tonight, so I will keep it simple.

For the Saints, rookie running back Mark Ingram should enjoy a productive night with the absence of defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins (now in Philly). Even Pierre Thomas could be effective catching a few balls out of the backfield, while taking a couple from inside the five. Wide receiver Marques Colston and tight end Jimmy Graham will see plenty of targets tonight and should post strong numbers for fantasy owners.

The Packers boast plenty of playmakers with wide receiver Greg Jennings and tight end Jermichael Finley leading the way. Rodgers will have no trouble spreading the ball around to his many weapons, so do not forget wide out Jordy Nelson who came up big last season in the playoffs.

PASS

Stay away from both defenses; both the Saints and Packers will rack up yardage and post big numbers on the scoreboard. Wide receiver Lance Moore is out, so make sure he’s on your bench. Packer’s wide receiver James Jones has been banged up and could be a little rusty, it also doesn’t help that he has slid behind Driver and Nelson on the depth chart.

The Saints don’t have a great run stopping defense, but then again the Packers are not known to run the ball very well (ranked 24th in 2010). Neither Ryan Grant nor James Starks appear to be a leading candidate, expect to see both receive an equal share of touches tonight. What that means for owners, low productivity and likely no rushing touchdowns.

Just my take.

By David Ortega