FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Line up

(NFL.com)

I am just like most fantasy football nuts, I love to play the games and all of the games. Every week I take my shots and let the Hail Marys fall where they may and included is the weekly Perfect Lineup on the NFL site. My track record has not been great of late, as I like to play the numbers, mixed in with a little bit gut-feelings and intuition. Last week my team tanked big, but that’s the great thing about fantasy, there’s another week to play until there isn’t. Here are my picks for Week 12;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; The expectation is this offense is going to breakout at some point and while 40 points last week and subsequently a nice passing day from Big Ben (299 yards and 4 touchdowns) would be good indicators, that type of game falls a little short. It’s a great start nonetheless and has generated some buzz, but my gut is telling me this week is the boom week for Big Ben and the offense; bigger than last week.

RB-Kareem Hunt; Last week the hopes were high for Hunt and the Chiefs offense, but unfortunately there was only disappointment. This week owners will be singing a different tune with Hunt and company taking on the (Bills) worst run defense in the league over the past month.

RB-Mark Ingram; The Saints starting running back Mark Ingram is the league’s No.6 RB in standard and PPR, but over the past two weeks he’s number one. Ingram has lead the charge in his last two games with 287 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns and Sunday he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs for the season.

WR-TY Hilton; Over the past month, only one defense against opposing wide receivers has been worse than the Titans. In the last four weeks the Titans defense has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns (6) and fantasy points to opposing receivers. This sounds like a very good matchup for wide receiver TY Hilton and with his quarterback Jacoby Brissett cleared for Sunday, all signs point toward big day.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons receiver is healthy this week or as healthy as he’s been this season and it comes in time for fantasy owners. The Falcons draw the Bucs this week and their 29th ranked pass defense and a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards, most receptions, and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; The Patriots tight end was held in check a week ago with just three catches for 12 yards, but Gronk still managed to find the end zone. I would expect a healthier Gronk to enjoy greater success this week against the Dolphins. Gronk is always a Brady favorite in the red zone and could be looking at one of his multi-touchdown weeks.

PK-Justin Tucker; I am expecting the Ravens offense to have some great success moving the ball and as per usual of the offense this season, they will be calling on the sure footed Justin Tucker.

Steelers Defense; This looks like great matchup for the Steelers defense, a home matchup against a backup quarterback (Brett Hundley) that has been struggling. Hundley is coming off a three-pick performance a week ago. Look for the Steelers defense to turn up the heat and bring lots of pressure, early and often.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 6 Sunday Perfect Lineup

The Weekly Perfect lineup contest is a lot of fun, but usually its always hit and miss and unfortunately I never hit all and usually miss all, Haha. Well here we go with my Perfect Lineup picks for Week 6;

QB- Drew Brees

The trend is always go with good matchups. Maybe the Lions defense has been pretty good this season, but a couple of things here to consider; one Brees is at home, always tough and two, the Lions were just torched by quarterback Cam Newton last week. Whatever deficiencies existing in the secondary, you know Saints quarterback Drew Brees is watching the tape and will look to exploit.

RB-Melvin Gordon

I have Mel G in a couple of leagues, so maybe this is wishful thinking, but Gordon is coming off a great Week 5 game (163 total yards) against a soft run defense and this week he gets the Raiders (ranked 25th against the run). The Chargers ball carrier is the featured back and averaging 18+ touches per game, with a prime matchup on Sunday, only good things.

RB-Todd Gurley

The Rams running back is having a great season, currently the No.2 fantasy RB in PPR. He's the 3rd leading rusher in the league with 405 rushing yards and he has 7 total touchdowns. Gurley gets the Jaguars 31st ranked run defense on Sunday which could mean a big day.

WR-Mike Evans

One of the league’s top talents at the receiver spot, Evans has been quiet the past two weeks and he is currently residing at the No.23 fantasy WR spot in PPR. This week however, Evans will get a crack at a leaky 21st ranked Cardinals pass defense. The Cardinals secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 7 touchdowns.

WR-Keenan Allen

Right now Keenan is the No.13 fantasy WR in PPR, he has 28 receptions on 52 targets. I love his volume and believe the efficiency will improve. This week he faces the Raiders 15th ranked pass defense that's allowed the (tied for) 5th most pass plays of 20 yards or more at 16. It was 2 seasons ago (week 7 2015), but the last time Allen faced the Raiders he pulled in 9 passes for 89 yards.

TE-Austin Seferian-Jenkins

The Jets tight end has collected 15 passes in his three games this season. This weeks matchup against the Patriots is a favorable one. The Patriots allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered 4 touchdowns.

PK-Justin Tucker

The Ravens offense has struggled mightily this season, limiting Tuckers chances through five weeks. However, last week against the Raiders, Tucker was 3 for 3 with three extra points. The Ravens should be able to move the ball against the Bears, but could have to settle for a couple of chips shots once again. Look for Tucker to turn in another solid Sunday.

Broncos defense

The Broncos defense are ranked number one overall, they are number one against the run, Sunday night is a home game against the Giants. The Giants run game has been non-existent and they've lost two of their three top receivers for the season. I'd say, this one looks pretty good.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 26th 2016
Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Lineup

I usually play two Perfect lineups each week, one on NFL.com and the other on DraftDay Fantasy site. Here is my perfect lineup for week 12 on DraftDay.

QB-Tom Brady (NE) - Brady will take his best shots against a Jets secondary that has struggled mightily at times this season. Brady is coming off a big 4 touchdown performance last week and has thrown at least three in four of his six starts. Sunday could be another big day for Tom.

RB-DeMarco Murray (TEN) - Since week 7 Murray has had no fewer than 19 touches and has eclipsed 127 total yards in three of his five starts. Murray is the number 3 scoring fantasy running back and should see a hefty workload on Sunday.

RB-Lamar Miller (HOU) - The Texans ball carrier will face a Chargers defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for second most). Miller should see a lion’s share of touches on Sunday giving him plenty of opportunities to produce.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) - The Giants dynamic wideout was slowed up a week ago, but with 6 games of 10 plus targets this season, expect OBJ to see plenty of work on Sunday. Facing a Browns defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 6th most receiving yards and 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

WR-Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - The Cardinals will host the Falcons on Sunday and Larry Fitzgerald will draw coverage from a defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. FItzgerald will see plenty of chances on Sunday, especially in the red-zone.

WR-Rishard Matthews (TEN) - The Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has been sizzling lately and his favorite wide receiver has been Matthews. The Titans wideout faces the Bears secondary that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver. In his last three games Matthews has totaled 18 receptions on 28 targets for 248 yards and three touchdowns. He should have plenty of chances to improve these numbers on Sunday.

TE-Greg Olsen (CAR) - The heavily targeted Panthers pass catcher is the number fantasy scoring tight end this season. This week Olsen will draw the Raiders defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Olsen has been quiet recently, but this could change Sunday against the Raiders who allow the 9th most receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns (tied for 4th most allowed).

PK-Justin Tucker (BAL) - The Ravens kicker has been solid this season and with an offense that has had it struggles he could see some extra shots from close range on Sunday.

D/ST-Dolphins - The Dolphins are hosting the 49ers who will have to make the long travel across country for the early kickoff start time. This will be a tough matchup for the Niners who are coming off a very poor performance last week against the Patriots.

That’s My Take.

 ~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 20th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 11: My Perfect Lineup

There are few surprises here as I am leaning heavy on some of this weeks' favorites, but here are my picks for the Week 11 Perfect Challenge (NFL).

QB-Ben Roehtlisberger (PIT). Weather may hinder his effort some, but his big arm and his weapons should allow him to make a few big plays today.

RB-DeMarco Murray (TEN). The Titans running back (NFL 2nd leading rusher) has been better than solid this season and today's matchup should continue his upward trend.

RB-LeVeon Bell (PIT). He has a prime matchup and could see an avalanche of touches today.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr (NYG). He's the focus of the pass game, so I expect another big Sunday for the super-talented Giants wideout.

WR-TY Hilton (IND). Hilton has been up and down, but his last matchup against Tennessee he was huge. Can you say repeat.

TE-Delanie Walker (TEN). This kid has lived on the injury report all season, but still produces. Today's favorable matchup could be another productive Sunday.

PK-Justin Tucker (BAL). The Raven's kicker has been solid this season and perfect with 18 of 18 kicks. On the road today the Raven's may have to settle for a few kicks.

D/ST-Dolphins. You have to like a defenses chances when they face a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd, 2016
Sunday Edition

Week 7: Perfect Lineup

Like many of you that play season long fantasy, I also partake in the Daily Fantasy sports and like rolling with the free to play "Perfect Lineup" contest on the DraftDay site (I also play the NFL Challenge).

Here's my week 7 picks for DraftDay;

QB-Rolling with Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has been a cold-blooded assasin in fantasy this season with 4-300 yard games under his belt and 15 touchdowns. He'll get the 24th ranked pass defense today at home.

RB-The Chiefs running back Spencer Ware will get his shot today against one of the leagues worst run defense (the Saints) that also allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 10 rushing touchdowns (most in the league). Ware should get plenty of touches today to do some real damage.

RB-The Titans have a real workhorse now in running back DeMarco Murray. Over his last three starts he's averaging more than 24 carries per game and facing the leagues 25th ranked run defense he could be in for a nice game.

WR-AJ Green. Dalton's favorite will see a truck load of targets today.
WR-Michael Crabtree. He's become a touchdown maker with 5 on the season.
WR-Golden Tate. He's coming off a big game last week, just looking for the encore performance this week. Still one of Staffords' go-to.
TE-Rob Gronkowski. With Brady back the sky's the limit for Gronk.
K-Justin Tucker. He's been money all season; 15 for 15, ranked 4th among fantasy kickers.
DST-Vikings. The defense is just nasty and will get to feast on the rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 9

Saturday Edition
November 3rd, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 9

My SFFL fantasy team has fallen off the pace a bit the past couple of weeks with a couple of sub-par performances, but this week I am looking to improve mightily with some big performances from some big names and a strong showing from a few lesser known. My line-up leads off with a couple of notables (Michael Vick & Brandon Marshall), but also consists for a few intriguing names where I really like their matchups….


My Line-up 

Quarterback:
Despite the ups and downs and the turmoil that exists within the Eagles organization, I still believe Michael Vick is an exceptional athlete with plenty of playmaking ability and on Monday night he’ll have a great opportunity to exhibit plenty. The Saints defense has been awful this season and they have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Vick and the Eagles need a big game and this Monday night is lining up to be their best opportunity.

Running Backs:
In the backfield I am starting the Lions running back Mikel Leshoure this week. The Lions are on the road to face Jacksonville and the Jaguars run defense has not been good against the run this season. The Jags are ranked 25th versus the run and have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns this season; they also allow the 4th most fantasy points to running backs.

My other ball carrier for week 9 is Felix Jones. The Cowboys running back has been running on empty it seems and with DeMarco Murray likely to return to the lineup sooner rather than later, this may be one of his last starts this season. I am not looking for a big output from Felix Sunday night, but the Cowboys need to make a big statement here and will need a solid effort from the ground game. The Falcons defense has not been great against the run this season ranked 26th, so I like for Jones to carry the load and be productive. 

Wide Receivers:
It’s time to call on one of the big dawgs this season, the Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall. the Bears are on the road this week, but for Marshall and company they meet the Tennessee Titans; ranked 29th against the pass. Marshall is off to a great start this season and has a great chance to improve his numbers on Sunday, the Titans are giving up the 15th most fantasy points to wide receiver this season, including 17 touchdowns.

My other wide out for week 9 is going to be DeSean Jackson. It what looks to be a shoot-out on Monday night, Jackson will be lining up against the Saints defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The game will be fast on turf and could be filled with lots of big plays.

Tight End:
The Buccaneers offense, in particular their passing game has shown lots of life over the past couple of weeks, and tight end Dallas Clark has become fantasy relevant again. Clark has quietly become more involved as he and his quarterback Josh Freeman continue to develop a good rapport. In his first five games Clark was targeted 15 times, he has been targeted 9 times in the past two. Although Clark has yet to put up big numbers this season, he is facing the Raiders 21st ranked pass defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends.

Place Kicker:
The Ravens have a very favorable matchup this week on the road against the Browns. Their offense should have plenty of success moving the ball, but could stall a few times in the red zone. I like Ravens kicker Justin Tucker to score big points with several kicks and several extra points.

Team Defense:
With my choices becoming more limited each week, one matchup I like is the Lions defense on the road against the Jaguars. The Jags offense is ranked last in the league, and with no MJD this looks too good to pass. The Jags have really struggled with the pass this season, ranked 32nd and 20 sacks allowed this season and have allowed the 6th most fantasy points versus opposing defenses.

These are my picks for week 9.


By David Ortega