FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 29th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My Week 8 Injury Takes

Tevin Coleman, RB (knee); the Falcons running back wasn’t listed on the Team’s injury report. No surprise here with Coleman. The Falcons will have their two-headed monster attack available this week against the Jets. Both backs are considered Top-25 this week; Freeman No.8 and Coleman No.22.

Matt Forte, RB (knee); the Jets running back is not on the injury report this week. This is good news for others, as it’s all systems go for Forte, the week 7 No.14 fantasy RB (PPR). He’s a little low on our board this week as our No.26 this week against the Falcons.

Jameis Winston, QB (questionable); the Buccaneers have announced that Winston will start, play all of your Bucs (starters) today.

Marquise Goodwin, WR (questionable); the Niners receiver is expected to play and will help a stalling pass game. Goodwin’s presence as the deep threat could open things up a bit for his counterpart Pierre Garcon, but fantasy owners should keep their expectations in check, after all the Niners are 0-7.

Willie Snead, WR (hamstring); the Saints wideout wasn’t listed on the team’s injury report. Finally looking healthy, we could finally see some production from the Saints slot man.

Melvin Gordon, RB (questionable); the Chargers running back will play today against the Patriots. He’s my No.2 fantasy RB for Week 8, get him in your lineup.

Charles Clay, TE (OUT); the Bills tight end will not play today. Clay’s absence will afford tight end Nick O’Leary another opportunity to improve on his 2/58/0 line from last week.

 

CJ Prosise, RB (doubtful); it’s unlikely we’ll see Prosise this week after suffering a setback last week and not practicing all week. With Prosise in or out, the Seahawks backfield remains muddled.

Golden Tate, WR ( questionable); although it’s being reported that he plans to play, it’s a tough call this week with Tate. Since the Lions play in the late game today. Owners will want to have a backup in place.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR (questionable); the Broncos wideout has a chance to play Monday night, but fantasy owners would be wise to look toward other options. The Broncos offense has been inept of late and Sanders will be less than 100 percent.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 10th 2017

Tuesday Late Evening Edition

Week 5 Sunday Lineup Killers

There are just some days you can't avoid that pot hole in the road and there are some Sundays where you wish you had avoided that lineup killer. And I'm pretty sure there were some of you that really wished you had avoided starting Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Apparently Big Ben wasn't feeling it on Sunday throwing 5 interceptions with zero touchdowns. Big Ben has been a tough read this season with no strong fantasy performances this season and after Sunday's disaster, you'll be regulating the Steelers quarterback to your bench for the time being.

The Rams running back Todd Gurley was as bad as 5 turnovers, but his low production in Week 5 (50 total yards) definitely hurt fantasy owner's chances for a win. Unlike last season's struggles, fantasy owners can chalk this one up to divisional matchup, Seahawks defense, etc, etc. Gurley has been brilliant this season, so there's no need to panic. This will happen with some of these divisional matchups, but Gurley will bounce back and he'll have those big Sunday's owners drafted him for.

And like Gurley, the Lions running back Ameer Abdullah was disappointing in week 5. At home, Abdullah and the Lions were ambushed by the visiting Panthers. Abdullah was completely shut down, limited to just 31 yards rushing and 3 yards receiving. His performance can be attributed to a good Panthers defense and game flow. The Lions fell behind big and in the 4th quarter became one dimensional going with running back Theo Riddick down the stretch. This was just a bad game for the Lions and not the norm, when the offense is operating Abdullah is going to see the Lion's share. No need to worry, he should bounce back strong next Sunday against the Saints.

One concerning trend in the Lions offense this season has been wide receiver Golden Tate. In a game where the Lions trailed big and had to play catchup, fantasy owners would expect to see a heavy dose of Tate in the pass game. Such was not the case, on Sunday Tate caught all of 5 balls for 48 yards receiving; good enough for the No.39 WR in week 5. In three of his last four starts Tate has scored in single digit fantasy points, a trend that needs to change or fantasy owners may need to start looking for more reliable options.

After 5 weeks it's official, time for fantasy owners to put their Steelers toy wide receiver Martavis Bryant away for a while. With the struggles of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Bryant has not been able to put together a solid Sunday since week 2. He has continued to fall down the fantasy tree (just 5 catches for 21 yards in week 5) and landed at the No.46 fantasy WR spot. He can't be trusted for now, it's time to sit Bryant.

Through 5 weeks of the season, the Lions tight end Eric Ebron (currently the No.48 fantasy TE in PPR) has been collecting dust on your fantasy bench. If you didn't start him back in week one, you probably haven't started him all season and every Sunday he keeps giving you reason to sit him. With the exception of week 2, Ebron has been irrelevant every Sunday. In weeks 1, 3, 4, and 5 he has a total of 7 receptions for 51 yards; that averages to 1.7 catches and 13 yards per game. He's off the fantasy radar for now.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

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September 18th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

Tonight’s not exactly what you might call a Primetime matchup, but there’s still plenty of fantasy relevance with names like Stafford, Manning, and Beckham on the slate.

So let’s talk about tonight’s matchup and some of the plays that could have huge impact and implication on your weekly season long league matchups and your weekly DFS lineups.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford, could be in some DFS lineups tonight as well as a likely starter in season long leagues. Stafford is coming off a big week one performance with four touchdowns, but tonight could find slimmer pickings against a tough Giants secondary. Owners needing big numbers could be in for disappointment, but Stafford should come through with standard numbers in the 16-19 fantasy point range.

Wide receivers Golden Tate & Kenny Golladay, should once again be heavily involved in the passing game tonight. The Lions running game is certainly lacking after one week, and Stafford definitively favors his receivers; 25 targets of 41 passes to the wideouts. Tate is the heavy favorite in PPR, but Golladay could the better option in standard with the likelihood of a score tonight. Wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr (2 targets last week) could be the odd man out tonight and may be better off on your bench.

Running backs Theo Riddick & Ameer Abdullah are both in play tonight, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers from either. Riddick is the PPR fave out of the backfield with 7 targets in week one, but Abdullah (4 targets last week) could see enough work in the ground game (15 carries in week 1) against a Giants defense that allowed 129 yards in week one to be lineup worthy.

Tight End Eric Ebron is currently off the radar. He’s a risky start coming off a quiet week one with just 2 catches for 9 yards. Stafford three the ball 41 times in week one and only went Ebron’s way three times. With that ratio, he’s sitting until we see changes in the passing game progression.

Quarterback Eli Manning is probably not in too many lineups tonight and probably a good thing, tough to always predict his outcomes. Last week was not good with just 6.70 fantasy points against the Cowboys, but tonight could fare a little better for Eli at home. He’s still not a lineup favorite, but could put up reasonable numbers in the 14-17 fantasy point range

Running backs Paul Perkins & Shane Vereen should both be plenty active tonight against the Lions. There was no question in week one, the Giants abandon the run with just 11 total carries. We could see a more patient offense tonight, especially if star receiver OBJ is not available. Even with additional touches tonight for Perkins, Vereen (9 receptions in week 1) is the only viable Giant’s running back I am starting, and that’s only in PPR leagues.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is the biggest factor and will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the Giants offense. Amid current rumors it sounds like OBJ could play tonight, but it doesn’t sound like he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. If he plays, he’ll be a huge risky start for fantasy owners. I am avoiding him in DFS, but may roll the dice with him in season long leagues.

Wide receivers Brandon Marshall & Sterling Shepard could see a bump in value is OBJ plays. Beckham Jr’s presence will certainly draw some attention and may allow Marshall and Shepard to operate underneath. Shepard (7 receptions & 88 yards receiving in week 1) is the favorite here, while Marshall may warrant some (but not much) consideration in PPR formats and TD heavy leagues.

Tight end Evan Engram had a decent showing in week 1 for an overall poor performance the Giants offense. The rookie tight end was targeted 5 times, snagging 4 for 44 yards. He’s more than likely in line to see similar numbers and may be worth starting in deeper PPR leagues. At 6’3” and with his athletic talent, he’s also worth a look TD-heavy formats as he’ll likely be featured in red-zone packages.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 16th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Injury Takes

WR-Golden Tate; the Lions wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report this week. Tate is all systems go and should be started with confidence.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings quarterback is trending towards starting Sunday and is expected to play. With Bradford under center, owners can start the Vikings receivers as expected. It’s a tough matchup, so temper your expectations.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr; recent reports suggest OBJ is expected to play. Don’t set your expectations high, but if OBJ is playing owners can’t afford to have him on the bench. It’s a tough call, but the Giants won’t roll him out unless he can be effective.

WR-Jarvis Landry; the Dolphins receiver is also trending toward playing, but owners will have to wait until the afternoon inactives to confirm. Landry is a middle of the road play this week, in my opinion. If safer options are available, that may be the better road traveled. If he’s healthy and a go, he’s likely a better play in PPR formats.

WR-John Brown; the Cardinals speedy receiver has been ruled out for Week 2. Brown is still dealing with quad issues, but his absence will only open more opportunities for Fitzgerald, wide receiver JJ Nelson, and wide receiver Jauron Brown (0 targets in week 1). Nelson (6 targets in week 1) is the play for me this week.

RB-Devontae Booker; the Broncos running back is expected to miss his second week with the wrist injury that’s kept him sidelined. Even healthy he’s likely buried on the depth chart behind Anderson and Charles. The only impact here is, this may give Charles more window to carve out a larger role in the Broncos running game.

WR-Andrew Luck; the Colts are still without their signal caller and there’s no definitive timetable for a return. As long as Luck is sidelined, you have to downgrade the receivers. Only Hilton holds any fantasy relevance, and even his is risky at best (for now).

WR-Danny Amendola; the Patriots will be without Amendola who suffered a concussion in week 1. Brady owners won’t have to worry, he’s still got plenty of weapons. With Amendola sidelined Cooks and Gronkowski will see their normal share, but wide receiver Chris Hogan could see an uptick of involvement on Sunday.

WR-Eric Decker; the Titans wide receiver is off the injury report which is good new for fantasy owners, but he’s probably still a wait and see. Decker saw 8 targets in week one, but only snagged 3; owners should probably wait until we see more production before rolling him out. He’s a very low-end flex option at best this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is practicing full and expected to play on Sunday. Crowder had a poor showing in week one, but may have been slowed by injury. He’s healthy and should be ready to go, but the offense looks out of sync. I might look elsewhere if you have options, but he should be worth starting in PPR formats.

RB-Thomas Rawls; the Seahawks will have Rawls for Sunday who has been removed from the team’s injury report. With Rawls available, the Seahawks backfield is a cluster-bunch and hard read. It will be a tough call for fantasy owners to navigate and might be best avoided until head coach Pete Carroll gets his backfield sorted out.

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega

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September 10th 2017

Sunday Late Night Edition

Sunday Heroes

&

Lineup Killers

Here is the Week 1 run down of those players that may have saved your weekly matchup and scored you some green in DFS and those that cost you chances at both;

Sunday Heroes

Antonio Brown (Steelers-WR) Brown was solid on Sunday as the league’s No.2 wideout as he received a large volume or work finishing with 11 grabs for 182 yards.

Kenny Golladay (Lions-WR) The rookie wideout breaks out in week 1 with 4 catches for 69 yards and two scores. Strong start for Golladay, looks like a weekly favorite as a flex.

Austin Cooper (Falcons-TE) Not a lot of volume for the Falcons tight end just two targets, but  Cooper comes up big with 128 yards receiving and a score. Too soon to jump on this band wagon, but keep tabs on him as a possible bye week fill.

LeSean McCoy (Bills-RB) Just as most figured, Shady received a heavy workload on Sunday and turned in a big day with 159 total yards on 27 touches.

Jonathan Stewart (Panthers-RB) The Panthers starter received 20 touches on Sunday, turning them into 82 total yards and a score to remain fantasy relevant.

Leonard Fournette (Jaguars-RB) The rookie proved to be the new beast of the NFL, at least for this week totaling for 124 yards (100 rushing) and adding a TD.

Todd Gurley (Rams-RB) The Rams ball carrier was not spectacular, but he was productive totaling 96 yards with a score on 24 touches.

Matthew Stafford (Lions-QB) The Lions signal caller started shaky, but finished hot on Sunday passing for 292 yards and tossing four scores.

Golden Tate (Lions-WR) The Lions receiver continues to prove he’s a solid starting fantasy option and one of Stafford’s favorites; 10 catches, 107 yards receiving in week 1.

Cooper Kupp (Rams-WR) The rookie wideout played like a sleeper waking up, grabbing 4 of 6 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. A favorable streaming option and flex play.

Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys-RB) The Cowboys star running back continued to shine Sunday night totaling 140 yards on 29 touches to his fantasy owners delight.

Tarik Cohen (Bears-RB) The Bears rookie (Cohen who?) totaled 113 yards on 13 touches and added a receiving touchdown. You may not know who he is, but you’ll hear his name again next week.

Ty Montgomery (Packers-GB) The Packers starting running back was featured on Sunday, seeing 24 touches totaling 93 yards with a rushing touchdown. As long as he’s healthy he’s needs to be starting.

Lineup Killers

Kendall Wright (Bears-WR) A risky play in a poor offense that did not pay off. Wright only say four targets on Sunday, turning in a line of 3/34.

Bilal Powell (Jets-RB) Like the Jets offense on Sunday, Powell struggled totaling just 39 yards on 12 touches.

Jamison Crowder (Redskins-WR) The Offense struggled just like it did in the preseason and Crowder was nowhere to be found; 3 receptions for 14 yards.

LeVeon Bell (Steelers-RB) Bell returned to camp a week ago, but left his form at home. On 13 touches he totaled only 47 yards.

Martavis Bryant (Steelers-WR) It was pretty obvious he needs more time working with the offense. Bryant and his quarterback were out of sync all day; 2 catches on 6 targets.

John Brown (Cardinals-WR) Too much hype leading into week 1. Owners will need to see more substance before playing Brown in the future; week 1 line 4/32.

Carson Palmer (Cardinals-QB) Palmer showed his age with some poor throws and inconsistency as he really struggled with turnovers (3 interceptions on Sunday).

Kelvin Benjamin (Panthers-WR) Cam Newton did not look accurate with some of his throws. It may be too early to rely on Benjamin as a weekly play, owners will need to see improved play; 1 catch for 25 yards on 5 targets.

DeMarco Murray (Titans-RB) A disappointing outing on Sunday for fantasy owners as Murray registered just 12 carries for 44 yards on the ground and 2 catches for 16 yards. It’s too soon to bail out on Murray, a tough start but he should get it turned around.

Isaiah Crowell (Browns-RB) The Browns running back was unspectacular for owners on Sunday totaling just 66 yards on 19 touches. It was a bad Sunday, but not a time to panic.

Brian Hoyer (Niners-QB) Hoyer’s first start as a Niner was underwhelming as he passed for only 193 yards with an interceptions. He’s not roster worthy at this time.

Frank Gore (Colts-RB) Without Luck the offense will struggle and splitting carries with the rookie Marlon Mack will limit Gore’s ceiling; 11 touches for 52 total yards.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks-WR) Need to see a larger sample size from Lockett. He’s unproven and not consistent enough to start; one catch for 8 yards.

And That’s My Week 1 Take!

~David Ortega

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August 19th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

My Fantasy Favorites

It’s a Saturday night and all I can do think about fantasy football; doing a mock draft and sharing more thoughts on fantasy favorites.

I’ve managed to participate in a few dozen mock drafts myself and have joined several leagues and the following players have been on my list of targets.

Depending on what my strategy has been in some of these leagues I have joined, if the tendency has been the running backs early, a favorite I have been targeting (usually) in the 4th or 5th round (depending on league size) is Lions wide receiver Golden Tate. Since his arrival to Detroit in 2014, Tate has been a machine averaging 93.3 receptions, 1,073 yards receiving, and more than 135 targets in each of the past three seasons. With the departure of Anquan Boldin and his 95 targets from last season Tate should slide into the slot position more and see his volume greatly this season. More targets this season can only elevate him above his 17th fantasy receiver position from a year ago.

Whether I am targeting running backs or wide receivers early, one player I have been eyeing in the early rounds has been the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. There’s no question the big target is the Patriots Rob Gronkowski, but I typically don’t like taking a tight ends in the first two rounds where Gronk is going. Kelce is the 2nd tight end coming off the board which is warranted, since he finished last season as the number one TE with 85 receptions and 1,125 yards receiving on 117 targets. With wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (76 targets last season) now in Baltimore, Kelce is solidified as the Chiefs number one primary target in the passing game. At 6’5” and 255 lbs, Kelce is another Gronk and an ideal candidate in the red zone. Last season he was only targeted 15 times inside the 20, scoring three times; fantasy owners can expect head coach Andy Reid to change those numbers this season.

The Steelers have a not-so-secret weapon in wide receiver Martavis Bryant and even though he’s set to return to action this preseason, he still lingering around the 4th round, coming off the board as the 23rd fantasy receiver in PPR. That may be too rich to take as your number one or two receiver, if you go running backs early, but if you can get him as your third receiver I love his upside. Playing opposite Antonio Brown, he is going to see plenty of favorable coverage and his electrifying speed is just a big play in the making. In 2015 Bryant played in 11 games totaling 50 receptions for 765 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns on 92 targets with most of his damage coming in week 6 through week 15; good enough for the number 10 fantasy receiver (in PPR) during that stretch. He’s a fantasy monster in wait and worth the grab.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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December 31st 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Last Chance to Play in 16

This being the final weekend of the NFL regular season and with most season long redraft leagues having concluded last weekend, this is the final chance to play fantasy football in 2016.

With season long leagues over, what’s left? If your league is complete, don’t forget DFS has weekly games, so there’s still plenty of fantasy left. And don’t forget, the NFL Playoff Challenge, just more fantasy fun.

For some Week 17 fantasy magic where do owners look? Well let’s start with the matchups that will offer fantasy appeal; Giant-Redskins, Saints-Falcons, and Packers-Lions all have much at stake, so starters will be playing til the end in these contests. A couple of other interesting matchups that warrant some appeal; Patriots-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders.

These matchups have the appeal of knowing your starters will play and when looking them over, the standouts start with the quarterbacks. This week DFS players have to love the Packers Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary), since week 6 in his last 10 starts he is averaging 25.31, scoring no fewer than 21.24 fantasy points in 8 of those 10. In his week 3 matchup this season versus the Lions, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns and could be looking at a repeat play this Sunday.

In the backfield, there are two ball carriers that DFS owner should love, the Cardinals “Mr. Everything” running back David Johnson ($9,300 salary), and the Bills LeSean McCoy ($9,100). 

Johnson simply does everything and over his past seven starts he’s tallied better than 24 fantasy points in six of those contests. Johnson sees a steady diet of carries as well as targets making him a fantasy workhorse and solid week 17 bet.

Shady (McCoy) is another running back that has been sizzling of late. In has past five games, Shady has topped 19 fantasy points totaling more than 100 yards (rushing & receivng) in each while registering 6 touchdowns, McCoy could be a lock for another big Sunday.

With a lot of stock going to the backfield, owners will have to go frugal out wide, fortunately there are options available. With Rodgers in play, wide receiver Jordy Nelson ($8,200 salary) has to be a heavy favorite to double-down. Nelson has looked great over the past four weeks scoring no fewer than 15 fantasy points while registering 30 receptions and five touchdowns.

My risky plays for Sunday would include the Lions wide receivers Golden Tate and the Dolphins Kenny Stills. Both plays should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; Tate is averaging 10 targets per game in his last four starts and Stills is averaging better than six targets in his last six games, including 8 targets last week. There’s some risk with these two, but plenty of upside to score as well.

The Saints tight end Coby Fleener has my eye this week with a nice matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Fleener turned in one of his best performances this season back in his first matchup in week 3 against the Falcons. I like his chances on Sunday.

This is the makeup for one of my DFS week 17 lineups.

That’s My Take

~David G. Orrtega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd, 2016
Sunday Edition

Week 7: Perfect Lineup

Like many of you that play season long fantasy, I also partake in the Daily Fantasy sports and like rolling with the free to play "Perfect Lineup" contest on the DraftDay site (I also play the NFL Challenge).

Here's my week 7 picks for DraftDay;

QB-Rolling with Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has been a cold-blooded assasin in fantasy this season with 4-300 yard games under his belt and 15 touchdowns. He'll get the 24th ranked pass defense today at home.

RB-The Chiefs running back Spencer Ware will get his shot today against one of the leagues worst run defense (the Saints) that also allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 10 rushing touchdowns (most in the league). Ware should get plenty of touches today to do some real damage.

RB-The Titans have a real workhorse now in running back DeMarco Murray. Over his last three starts he's averaging more than 24 carries per game and facing the leagues 25th ranked run defense he could be in for a nice game.

WR-AJ Green. Dalton's favorite will see a truck load of targets today.
WR-Michael Crabtree. He's become a touchdown maker with 5 on the season.
WR-Golden Tate. He's coming off a big game last week, just looking for the encore performance this week. Still one of Staffords' go-to.
TE-Rob Gronkowski. With Brady back the sky's the limit for Gronk.
K-Justin Tucker. He's been money all season; 15 for 15, ranked 4th among fantasy kickers.
DST-Vikings. The defense is just nasty and will get to feast on the rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega