FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
August 24th, 2019

In These Hands We Trust

Let’s begin with this, my numbers are not scientific, nor are they prophetic, they are merely my opinion based on my eye test and last season’s production. With that much said and not trying to say too much, these are my WR rankings for the start of 2019 season.

At the top of the board is Mr. Number one himself, DeAndre Hopkins (MR#1WR). In full PPR Hopkins finished as the number wide receiver last season, after finishing second by a half point in 2017. Hopkins has hands of glue and he is Mister Consistent. He’ll see his normal 170-plus targets and should be back at the top once again.

Right behind Hopkins, filling the number two slot is the Packers Davante Adams (MR#2WR). I actually like Adams a ton; he could easily unseat Hopkins for top billing. Adams will have the luxury of catching passes from a healthy Aaron Rodgers and after coming off a season with career highs across the board (catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets), he’s a shoe-in to post large numbers in 2019.

Yes, the top two receivers have great outlooks for 2019 and both are appropriately ranked, but my number four fantasy receiver, the Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr (MR#4WR) deserves a huge mention here. It just feels like the perfect storm this season for OBJ, who was traded to Cleveland in the offseason. With the gunslinging quarterback Baker Mayfield under center, it feels like OBJ is going to be on Sportscenter a lot this season.

The First 12 pairs of hands
1.DeAndre Hopkins
2.Davante Adams
3.Julio Jones
4.O. Beckham Jr
5.Michael Thomas
6.Tyreek Hill
7.Smith-Schuster
8.Mike Evans
9.Keenan Allen
10.Antonio Brown
11.Adam Thielen
12.T.Y. Hilton

Leading the second set of 12 is the Buccaneers receiver (MR#13WR) Chris Godwin; in Godwin I trust. He’s been one of the talks of the offseason, I’ve been listening to. Godwin had a very nice 2nd season starting 5 games and finishing with 59 receptions, 842 yards receiving, and 7 touchdowns. Now in his third year with the Bucs, this is expected to be his breakout. In four of his last five games in 2018, Godwin had no fewer than six targets per contest with quarterback Jameis Winston under center; the Bucs starting Quarterback for 2019. Godwin is a rising star.

The two Rams receivers, Brandin Cooks (MR#16WR) and Robert Woods (MR#17WR) are basically bookends; you can flip-flop these two. The Rams high-octane offense presents plenty of opportunity for both, even with the return of Cooper Kupp. Last season Woods finished as the 11th scoring fantasy receiver, with Cooks checking in at 13 (full PPR). I believe the return of Kupp will knock these two down slightly, but both are worth drafting as your WR2.

Ankle surgery has me avoiding Bengals receiver A.J. Green (MR#24WR) in my drafts, but he is going to return at some point this season; expected to only miss a few games. If you can get him late, he has the potential of being a solid late grab and could be a difference maker. But he is coming off surgery, which is always risky.

The Second set of hands
13.Chris Godwin
14.Stefon Diggs
15.Julian Edelman
16.Brandin Cooks
17.Robert Woods
18.Jarvis Landry
19.Amari Cooper
20.Cooper Kupp
21.Kenny Golladay
22.Tyler Lockett
23.Calvin Ridley
24.A.J. Green

Some notables that just missed the cut, Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd (MR#25WR), Chargers receiver Mike Williams (MR#26WR) and Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery (MR#27WR). I really like Williams this season, easily see him cracking the top 24. The same for Boyd, with Green expected to miss time he’ll be the go-to receiver for quarterback Andy Dalton.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 WR Rankings

Coming off a huge Week 7 performance against the Chiefs, I like Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper on the road this week against the Bills. With Marshawn Lynch sidelined, the Raiders may not feature the run game and rely more on the pass. I also believe the Bills will be tough on the road and force the Raiders to be more one dimension. Cooper played well last week and could continue that momentum this week.

At No.19, I have the Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor. It’s a decent matchup for the Eagles receiver this week against the Niners, who have allowed an average of 20-plus fantasy points versus opposing receivers. Agholor is tied for 2nd this season with 5 receiving touchdowns, so he’ll be threat to score again on Sunday.

The Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson enters the Top-30 this week. He’s been quiet most of the season, but lately he’s been turning heads. His number the past two weeks have been modest, 4 catches, for 50 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be matched up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing receivers; this could be his breakout week.

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown

2. AJ Green

3. Julio Jones

4. Keenan Allen

5. Mike Evans

6. Michael Thomas

7. Dez Bryant

8. Doug Baldwin

9. Brandin Cooks

10. Amari Cooper

11. DeAndre Hopkins

12. Kelvin Benjamin

13. Adam Thielen

14. Chris Hogan

15. Alshon Jeffery

16. Michael Crabtree

17. Pierre Garcon

18. TY Hilton

19. Nelson Agholor

20. Stefon Diggs

21. Devin Funchess

22. Tyreek Hill

23. Demaryius Thomas

24. Mohamed Sanu

25. DeSean Jackson

26. Marvin Jones Jr

27. Ted Ginn Jr

28. Will Fuller

29. Jermaine Kearse

30. Josh Doctson

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 8

(NFL.com)

Just a quick week 7 review, Brees was my quarterback last week and he finished No.10, my running backs were McCoy and Freeman, both finished No.2 and No.19 respectively; not bad, but certainly not great. My receivers were Julio and Dez, No.4 and No.9 a vast improvement, and Jimmy Graham (No.6 fantasy TE) wasn’t far off.

For a perfect lineup (standard scoring), a bit off the pace no doubt, but not a bad DFS play (if the salaries work). My Kicker and D/ST were both decent, finishing 7th for Week 7. Final results for week 7, probably not too bad, but we are certainly looking for more from my Week 8 picks;

QB-Carson Wentz; the Eagles quarterback has been on fire of late and with a golden matchup with the Niners at home, he has to be this week’s favorite at QB. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB with 17 touchdowns and 260 yards passing per game.

RB-Le’Veon Bell; the Steelers running back has been the focal point of the offense all season and that’s not changing this week. Bell is averaging nearly 29 touches per game and the Lions

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back has been running like thunder through opposing defenses this season with 560 rushing yards (ranks 5th in the league). He’s only the No.14 fantasy RB (in PPR), but I feel good about his matchup against the Saints this week. Remember, last week the Saints allowed 131 yards rushing to Packers running back Aaron Jones.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals passing game starts and finishes with Green. He’s the No.6 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and looks to improve his ranking this week against the Colts. Colts allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 6th most over the past 4 weeks; looking good for AJ on Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen; the Chargers receiver is one of the most targeted receivers in the league with 68 this season (3rd most). The Patriots have played well this season, but they will have all they can handle trying to cover Allen and the rest of the Chargers receivers. Allen is the go-to, so I expect to see him post numbers on Sunday.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; Gronk has been quiet of late and regardless of the matchup, he’s always has a chance to blow up. I am just taking a shot here and playing the odds. Gronk is still the No.2 fantasy TE this season, but has only scored in double-digit fantasy points in 3 of 6 games and last week he only posted 8.10 fantasy points (in PPR).

PK-Jake Elliott; let’s face it the Eagles are going to score a lot on Sunday against the Niners. I like Elliott’s chances to hit a couple of chip shots and posting double digit points on Sunday.

D/ST-Bengals defense; just playing the numbers with this matchup. The Bengals have a sound defense and they are at home this week. The Bengals will matchup against a Colts offense that ranks 28th in the league in Total Offense and they in turn are the No.2 defense this season. Something’s gotta give, so rolling with Cincy.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 27th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five 

What to Expect on Sunday Week 8

Could be a Boltz Blitz on Sunday

I know the recent numbers against the Patriots may be saying one thing, but I’ve been watching the Chargers this season and weapons they have. Philip Rivers has been steady this season and with Hunter Henry (No.9 fantasy TE) once again emerging along with wide receiver Keenan Allen the Chargers offense is quite potent. Running back Melvin Gordon (No.4 fantasy RB) is having a strong 2017 campaign, but how he’s doing it is a bit surprising; 29 receptions for 228 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. As well as the Patriots have been playing recently, they’ll have their hands full trying to slow down the Boltz.

Wentz Looking to Soar Higher

After a magnificent Monday night performance against the Redskins, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is primed and poised to have another big week. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB and he’s having a terrific season. Last Monday he looked unstoppable and this week he gets the Niners who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks the past four weeks. With Wentz playing at such a high level, everyone on the offense should benefit and be played; Agholor, Ertz, and Smallwood.

Cousins Ready for a Rodeo

And just like that, the Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has elevated himself to the No.7 fantasy QB this season. After a slow start, Cousins has really come on of late with 11 total touchdowns (10 pass/ 1 run) and three 300-yard passing games in his last 4 starts. He’s really been playing well for fantasy owners scoring better than 20 fantasy points in four straight starts. Cousins faces the Cowboys have allowed over 20 fantasy points to the following quarterbacks; Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Trevor Siemian. I like Cousins chances at a big Sunday.

And His Name is Dalton

It has not been the best year for Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (No.27 fantasy QB), but some of that could change on Sunday. Dalton and company will play host to the Colts this week and face a defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 321 passing yards per game with 6 touchdowns. Wide receiver AJ Green could be looking at a big day as well matched up against a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.

Wham, Bam, Time for Cam

The Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (No.8 fantasy QB) has been a little up and down this season. He’s coming off a poor performance last week against the Bears passing for just 211 yards and throwing two picks. This should be his up week with a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Buccaneers who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Not only should Cam be looking at a good day on Sunday, but owners should be looking to play both wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess; the Bucs allow the 2nd most fantasy points and receptions to opposing wide receivers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers

(Week 7)

There is always going to be those weeks when players don't perform, when they get shut down, or when they tank big time. Those are the weeks and the games fantasy owners can only hope to safely navigate their way through, because when you don't these fantasy duds can kill a Sunday lineup. These are the week 7 Lineup Killers;

QB-Cam Newton; the Panthers quarterback looked much better in his postgame, then he did on the field Sunday (at least to most fantasy owners). Newton passed for only 211 yards with no touchdowns and two picks; not the numbers of a QB1.

QB-Eli Manning; the Giants signal caller was just awful on Sunday against the Seahawks. Manning completed just 19 of 39 passes for a mere 134 yards, throwing one touchdown. Without OBJ, Manning has quickly fallen off the QB1 big board and will likely continue to fall.

QB-Marcus Mariota; it was an off week for the Titans starter. It was just one of those games where Mariota could not get his offense out of first; he passed for 203 yards with no touchdowns. Fantasy owners are hoping Mariota can get things turned around soon; he's currently the No.21 fantasy QB.

RB-CJ Anderson; with the struggles of the Broncos offense, go the struggles of the run game and Anderson. It was another subpar week with just 11 touches for 61 total yards. As long as this offense struggles as it has, Anderson is not a great RB2/3 option.

RB-Melvin Gordon; it was another tough matchup against the Broncos defense, and in this case the Broncos won the matchup. Gordon was bottled up most of the day totaling just 44 yards on 19 touches. The good news here, 19 touches and the Chargers won't see the Broncos again this season.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back found little room to run against a tough Panthers run defense on Sunday. Howard totaled just 65 rushing yards on 21 carries. The good news here, Howard once again dominated the touches in the backfield with 21; his 5th straight game with at least 19 touches or more.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals star receiver was held in check on Sunday with just 3 catches for 41 yards. Green only had 6 targets on the day and could never really get going in a matchup pretty much dominated by the Steelers. His 6 targets were a season-low and probably something that won't be repeated any time soon.

WR-Keenan Allen; like his teammate Melvin Gordon, Allen was just a victim of a tough matchup against the Broncos. Allen caught 3 passes for 41 yards on 7 targets. Two things here, the 7 targets by far a season low and like Gordon, he won't face the Broncos again.

TE-Martellus Bennett; with the change at quarterback, there's going to be a lot of growing pains for the Packers tight end; just  2 catches for 17 yards on 3 targets. Bennett is off the fantasy radar for now.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 10th 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

He is Mr.Under-rated

The Bengals wide receiver AJ Green is probably the best least talked about receiver in the game. And he shouldn't be. When fantasy analysts and Football experts are talking about Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr, most of the time Green does not get mentioned.

The talented receiver has not played a full season since 2015, but when's he's been healthy and on the field it's hard to argue that's there's anyone better. In 2016 Green missed 6 games and in 2014 he missed three, but if you look at his numbers and project them out over a full 16 games here's how they would have likely looked; 2016 numbers, 105 receptions for 1,542 yards and 6 touchdowns (295.2 fantasy points would have ranked 5th), 2014 numbers, 85 receptions for 1,281 yards and 7 touchdowns (255.1 fantasy points would have ranked 13th).

Except for his rookie season, his projected 13th finished would have been his worst finish.

When he's played 16 games, three times in 2012, 2013, and 2015, here's how Green has finished; 2012 he finished with 299.8 fantasy points (ranked 3rd), in 2013 he finished with 306.6 fantasy points (ranked 4th) and in 2015 he finished with .

Now let's look at the first five weeks of this season. Currently Green is the No.3 fantasy receiver in PPR. His 32 receptions ranked 3rd in the league, his 504 yards receiving are second to Antonio Brown's 545, and his 3 touchdowns are ranked 4th (also tied with players like Odell Beckham Jr, Dez Bryant, and Nelson Agholor).

I believe the numbers speak for themselves. Green has proven he's as good as anyone, yet we seem to hear his name as much as we probably should. Maybe the next time we talk about the best receivers in the game we should start with Mr. Underrated (AJ Green).

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 10th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My DFS Play Today

So for those of you that play daily fantasy sports (DFS), here’s one of my favorite plays for today

My DFS Lineup (Fan Duel)

QB-Derek Carr ($7,700): The Titans will play tough against the run today, forcing Carr and the offense to stick to the air; which is good for DFS. I like Carr’s price against a secondary that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2016.

RB-Bilal Powell ($6,300): This could be a popular play in DFS today as the Bills were awful against the run last season. Powell may be the Jets best player on offense today and he could see a heavy workload. He’s got a fair value today on Fan Duel and could cash in a couple of scores.

RB-Todd Gurley ($7,300): This should be meaty matchup for Gurley as he could see upwards of 25 carries against a Colts run defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2016.

WR-Michael Crabtree ($6,900): He’s a favorite target of quarterback Derek Carr and is a nice stack at his price. The Colts secondary will be short-handed today without their best cover corner (Vontae Davis); expect Crabtree to find pay-dirt.

WR-AJ Green ($8,400): Green is a beast and should see a hefty volume of targets today. Green did not face Baltimore last season (injury), but in his last five starts against the Ravens Green has scored 6 touchdowns. He loves to torch the Ravens.

WR-Doug Baldwin ($7,500): The Seahawks are on the road to face the Packers in what could be a high scoring affair. Baldwin will line up against a Packers secondary that allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2016. Get him in your lineup!

TE-Zach Ertz ($5,900): This is a great price for Ertz against a Redskins defense that allowed the second most receptions to opposing tight ends in 2016. Ertz is likely to be a popular play, but at his price he’s a must.

K-Dan Bailey ($4,900): To be honest, because you have to start a kicker I am starting Bailey. He has a nice price and the last time he faced the Giants at home he posted 17 fantasy points.

Def-Texans ($5,100): The Texans are at home and draw a very poor Jaguars offense that ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses in 2016. This looks to be a prime matchup for JJ Watt and company.

That’s My Lineup for Week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

Drafting gets you nowhere unless you know who to take and when. I’ve completed a large number of drafts and like when I started, there is just so much to remember. Good thing for you I like to share a lot of useless knowledge that will only confuse and bewilder you, but hey at the very least it may give you some idea what you might expect from some of these players I am about to mention. To continue with my current theme, here are the fantasy wide receivers.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

AJ Green

In Cincinnati there is wide receiver AJ Green and in the Bengals passing there is only AJ Green. Yes, there are a couple of “other guys”, but Green is the only one I am targeting and he’s someone worth taking as early as the number 7 or 8 pick in fantasy drafts. Green only played in 10 games last season, but when he exited he as the No.4 fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with 66 receptions, 964 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns; he was on his way to a monster season. He’s back, he’s healthy, and still quarterback Andy Dalton’s clear cut number one primary. Expect Green to wash, rinse, and repeat in 2017.

Brandin Cooks

No, Cooks is not the next Randy Moss in New England, but he is the first Brandin Cooks and with him he brings a lot of dynamic explosiveness and excitement to the Patriots passing game (especially with Tom Brady under center). Last season Cooks was a fantasy stud in New Orleans finishing as the No.10 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to Fantasy Data) with 78 receptions, 1,173 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Brady is an accurate deep ball thrower and Cooks seems to be a specialist in this field; I like him early and often in fantasy drafts. He’s in the same tier as AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.

Michael Thomas

The Saints 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas is someone whose basket I will be putting a lot of my eggs in. As a rookie he finished in the Top-10 for fantasy receivers in Standard and PPR leagues; he’s a lot of catches guy and a Touchdown-guy with 9 scores last season. With the departure of Cooks, there should be a few more opportunities to score. Thomas’ stock is on the rise and he’s another early receiver that’s going to have a big season. By the year end he could belong in the second tier conversation.

Alshon Jeffery

The big question for new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is can he stay healthy. A fair question yes, and if he can he’s a huge target and can easily be a Top-10 fantasy receiver. I really like Jeffery as a mid WR2 this season with some upside to go, he’s a solid 2nd receiver pick for your fantasy team. I like his quarterback, Carson Wentz (he’s up and coming). Paired with the capable receiving tight end Zach Ertz, Jeffery has a real legit shot to return to top-flite.

Demaryius Thomas

The Broncos wide receiver has been as steady as they come as far as fantasy receivers go; five straight seasons with 90 catches and 1,000 yards. It’s safe to say Thomas is about as safe a fantasy receiver pick as you can find. He’ll have his same quarterback (whom fantasy owner's hope will improve this season), so it’s reasonable to think he can match last season’s totals. Thomas is projected around the No.16 fantasy receiver this season and a favorite of mine as a mid-to-low WR2.

Travis Benjamin

Let me get this out of the way first, I love Keenan Allen and believe he’s back and in line for a big season, but another Charger receiver I am enamored with is Travis Benjamin. Benjamin has got electric speed and with quarterback Philip Rivers already displaying their big play potential in the preseason (the two connected on a 74-yarder in week 3). Benjamin started 8 games for the Chargers last season finishing with a line of 47-677-4. He’s a late round flier with potential upside that I am big on. He’s going to be available on week 1 waiver wires and fantasy owners should keep their eyes on him.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy tight ends