FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 17th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

My Week 11 Fantasy Favorites

Believe me when I say, there’s no deep research here. I’m not using any algorithms or scientific formulas, but at the same time I am not flipping coins or selecting the more dominant state flowers. I just go by what my eyes see and what the numbers tell me. After 10 weeks of action, these are my favorite plays for Sunday Week 11;

Derek Carr (Oak); I like the Raiders quarterback at home this week against the Patriots. And while some believe the Pats defense is playing much better, let’s not confuse Brock Osweiler with Derek Carr. The talent level and abilities are not comparable. I expect a huge day for Carr.

Latavius Murray (Min); The Rams have not been great against the run this season and their secondary is going to have all they can handle with the Wonder Twins (Diggs & Thielen) on Sunday. Murray should see a healthy number of carries (14-18) this week, enough to do some damage. He could break off a few big runs if he can get to that second level. The Rams safeties won’t be able to cheat up and will likely be making most of their tackles 5-6 yards beyond the line-of-scrimmage.

Melvin Gordon (LAC); Last week was Austin Ekeler outplaying Melvin, but this week look for Gordon to bounce back in a big way against the Bills. Gordon will line up against a defense that has allowed the 6th most rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) this season. Gordon should get plenty of play on Sunday and turn in a great effort.

Michael Crabtree (Oak); With Carr expected to have a big day on Sunday according to me, Crabtree should be one of the big recipients. The Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points, 3rd most receptions, and the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. Crabtree is the No.23 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and will look to climb the board on Sunday.

Nelson Agholor (Phi); The Eagles wide receiver has been a quiet surprise this season, scoring in five of his first seven games. He’s been off the past two games, but he’s got a tasty matchup on Sunday against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers. I am expecting Agholor to make at least one trip to pay dirt.

Travis Kelce (KC); Quite simply the Giants defense has played the worst against opposing tight ends this season. Kelce will matchup against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards (632 yards) and the most touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends; sounds like a big day coming for Travis.

That's My Take.
~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 WR Rankings

Coming off a huge Week 7 performance against the Chiefs, I like Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper on the road this week against the Bills. With Marshawn Lynch sidelined, the Raiders may not feature the run game and rely more on the pass. I also believe the Bills will be tough on the road and force the Raiders to be more one dimension. Cooper played well last week and could continue that momentum this week.

At No.19, I have the Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor. It’s a decent matchup for the Eagles receiver this week against the Niners, who have allowed an average of 20-plus fantasy points versus opposing receivers. Agholor is tied for 2nd this season with 5 receiving touchdowns, so he’ll be threat to score again on Sunday.

The Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson enters the Top-30 this week. He’s been quiet most of the season, but lately he’s been turning heads. His number the past two weeks have been modest, 4 catches, for 50 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be matched up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing receivers; this could be his breakout week.

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown

2. AJ Green

3. Julio Jones

4. Keenan Allen

5. Mike Evans

6. Michael Thomas

7. Dez Bryant

8. Doug Baldwin

9. Brandin Cooks

10. Amari Cooper

11. DeAndre Hopkins

12. Kelvin Benjamin

13. Adam Thielen

14. Chris Hogan

15. Alshon Jeffery

16. Michael Crabtree

17. Pierre Garcon

18. TY Hilton

19. Nelson Agholor

20. Stefon Diggs

21. Devin Funchess

22. Tyreek Hill

23. Demaryius Thomas

24. Mohamed Sanu

25. DeSean Jackson

26. Marvin Jones Jr

27. Ted Ginn Jr

28. Will Fuller

29. Jermaine Kearse

30. Josh Doctson

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 27th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five 

What to Expect on Sunday Week 8

Could be a Boltz Blitz on Sunday

I know the recent numbers against the Patriots may be saying one thing, but I’ve been watching the Chargers this season and weapons they have. Philip Rivers has been steady this season and with Hunter Henry (No.9 fantasy TE) once again emerging along with wide receiver Keenan Allen the Chargers offense is quite potent. Running back Melvin Gordon (No.4 fantasy RB) is having a strong 2017 campaign, but how he’s doing it is a bit surprising; 29 receptions for 228 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. As well as the Patriots have been playing recently, they’ll have their hands full trying to slow down the Boltz.

Wentz Looking to Soar Higher

After a magnificent Monday night performance against the Redskins, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is primed and poised to have another big week. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB and he’s having a terrific season. Last Monday he looked unstoppable and this week he gets the Niners who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks the past four weeks. With Wentz playing at such a high level, everyone on the offense should benefit and be played; Agholor, Ertz, and Smallwood.

Cousins Ready for a Rodeo

And just like that, the Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has elevated himself to the No.7 fantasy QB this season. After a slow start, Cousins has really come on of late with 11 total touchdowns (10 pass/ 1 run) and three 300-yard passing games in his last 4 starts. He’s really been playing well for fantasy owners scoring better than 20 fantasy points in four straight starts. Cousins faces the Cowboys have allowed over 20 fantasy points to the following quarterbacks; Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Trevor Siemian. I like Cousins chances at a big Sunday.

And His Name is Dalton

It has not been the best year for Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (No.27 fantasy QB), but some of that could change on Sunday. Dalton and company will play host to the Colts this week and face a defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 321 passing yards per game with 6 touchdowns. Wide receiver AJ Green could be looking at a big day as well matched up against a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.

Wham, Bam, Time for Cam

The Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (No.8 fantasy QB) has been a little up and down this season. He’s coming off a poor performance last week against the Bears passing for just 211 yards and throwing two picks. This should be his up week with a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Buccaneers who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Not only should Cam be looking at a good day on Sunday, but owners should be looking to play both wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess; the Bucs allow the 2nd most fantasy points and receptions to opposing wide receivers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 12th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

"Newton is rolling, no stopping the Cam train!" by @FantsySprtshome

Not much to say about this. Cam Newton appears to have rediscovered his MVP and over the past two weeks he has again looked like Superman.

"Funchess and Benjamin should find the endzone" by @FantsySprtshome

Both of Cam's targets (Funchess & Benjamin) are huge receivers with solid hands and will be in play in the red-zone.

"Wentz has been good, but a tough road match could slow his roll" by @FantsySprtshome

The Panthers have been tough against the pass and allow the 9th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wentz is too good to be shut down, but the Panthers D is more than capable enough to slow him down.

"I'm looking for Agholor to again be the not-so-sneaky play tonight." @FantsySprtshome

The Eagles receiver broke out last week with a big performance. On the year he has three touchdowns and his 12 yards per targets ranks among the receiving leaders in the league. He's not a heavy volume receiver, but he's effective.

Tonight's matchup should be a pretty good one. According to the numbers this one could be lining up to be a defensive struggle, but I have a feeling we are going to see some fireworks from Cam and Carson. Both bring a nice compliment of weapons and too much talent on offense to be held in check. The running attacks will be modest tonight, look for most of the damage to come from the air.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 10th 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

He is Mr.Under-rated

The Bengals wide receiver AJ Green is probably the best least talked about receiver in the game. And he shouldn't be. When fantasy analysts and Football experts are talking about Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr, most of the time Green does not get mentioned.

The talented receiver has not played a full season since 2015, but when's he's been healthy and on the field it's hard to argue that's there's anyone better. In 2016 Green missed 6 games and in 2014 he missed three, but if you look at his numbers and project them out over a full 16 games here's how they would have likely looked; 2016 numbers, 105 receptions for 1,542 yards and 6 touchdowns (295.2 fantasy points would have ranked 5th), 2014 numbers, 85 receptions for 1,281 yards and 7 touchdowns (255.1 fantasy points would have ranked 13th).

Except for his rookie season, his projected 13th finished would have been his worst finish.

When he's played 16 games, three times in 2012, 2013, and 2015, here's how Green has finished; 2012 he finished with 299.8 fantasy points (ranked 3rd), in 2013 he finished with 306.6 fantasy points (ranked 4th) and in 2015 he finished with .

Now let's look at the first five weeks of this season. Currently Green is the No.3 fantasy receiver in PPR. His 32 receptions ranked 3rd in the league, his 504 yards receiving are second to Antonio Brown's 545, and his 3 touchdowns are ranked 4th (also tied with players like Odell Beckham Jr, Dez Bryant, and Nelson Agholor).

I believe the numbers speak for themselves. Green has proven he's as good as anyone, yet we seem to hear his name as much as we probably should. Maybe the next time we talk about the best receivers in the game we should start with Mr. Underrated (AJ Green).

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 10th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Week 5 Sunday's Heroes

Not-the-Usual Suspects 

It's been a bit of an off year for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, but it was nice to see him among the weekly passing leaders. This week comes just 7 days after a strong performance in Week 4. Against the Giants on Sunday Rivers passed for only 258 yards (3rd best passing yard total this season), but he added three touchdowns. Although it was not his best passing day (only 21 of 44 passing) it was his day in fantasy (20.82 fantasy points). The Chargers signal caller is tough and gritty and as we saw on Sunday very capable. He's got the weapons, so there will be better passing days and more scoring on Sundays like this ahead. Rivers, currently the No.11 fantasy QB is making his case as a fantasy QB1.

After watching the Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz light up the Cardinals secondary, can anyone argue how good this kid has become and leap he's taken from his first year. Wentz finished Sunday completing 70 percent of his passes for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns. On the year the Eagles 2nd year quarterback has 10 passing touchdowns and is averaging 272 yards passing per game. He's the No.6 fantasy QB and a legitimate QB1 that needs to be started every Sunday.

It was not a quiet return on Sunday for running back Marlon Mack. The Colts rookie ball carrier was returning from injury after missing action in week 4. Mack was the No.8 fantasy RB for week 5, finishing his day with 91 yards rushing on 9 carries and adding a touchdown. The performance was enough for his head coach to acknowledge that he's earned a bigger role in the offense, putting Mack in play as a weekly flex.

In Green bay the Packers may have just found their next feature back in rookie Aaron Jones. Against the Cowboys on Sunday Jones was solid with 125 rushing yards on 19 carries (6.5 yards per carry average) and a rushing touchdown. Jones found a way onto the field in Week with Ty Montgomery going down, but his 32 carries for 174 yards rushing have earned his way to staying. Even when Montgomery returns Jones is going to be a factor. But while Montgomery is out, Jones has back-end RB2 value.

With his quarterback quickly rising up the fantasy ranks, Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor has quietly moved up the fantasy tree himself. On Sunday Agholor finished the day with 4 grabs for 93 yards and a score, good enough to push his season totals to 16/266/3. Agholor has been one of the more efficient receivers in the NFL and is currently the No.24 fantasy WR; he should be considered a starter in most formats.

With Greg Olsen on the shelf for the next six weeks, tight end Ed Dickson has emerged as a reliable weapon in Carolina. On Sunday Dickson was huge with 5 catches for 175 yards. It was his second consecutive game with at least three catches and 60 receiving yards. With only a total of 9 targets over the past two weeks, it may be too early to be pushing for Dickson as a reliable TE1. But if he can string his third game in row with good numbers, he's going to get the call.

The second best fantasy tight end (in PPR) on Sunday was the Niners rookie George Kittle. The rookie pass catcher is quickly making an impression in the fantasy world. On Sunday he posted a stat line of 7/78/1, good enough to elevate him to the No.16 fantasy tight end spot after 5 weeks. It was a breakout game for Kittle, but not necessarily a breakthrough. We'll need a larger sample size before we can trust George as a weekly play.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 15th 2017

Friday Afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Here’s my Week 2 lineup for Fan Duel;

QB-Derek Carr ($8,300): The Raiders starter played well on the road last week and this week he gets the lowly Jets who will have to travel across the country. This meeting sets up as a very favorable matchup for Carr. He’s coming off a great 2016 campaign (before getting hurt) and again played well in week one, he’ll likely lead the way again on Sunday.

RB-Melvin Gordon ($7,600): The Chargers running back got plenty of work in week 1 against a tough Broncos defense. He should see similar work in week 2 with greater success playing at home and facing a Dolphins defense that will have to travel across the country. I like Gordon as a top 10 running back this week.

RB-Devonta Freeman ($8,100): Like the Patriots-Saints matchup this week, the Packers-Falcons Sunday night matchup has the prospects of being a high scoring affair. The Freeman and the Falcons will be at home where they seem to be a better team than on the road and this will be a grand-opening of their new stadium. Freeman had a bit of a quiet first week, but in this one I look for him to get plenty of work and put up plenty of points.

WR-Michael Thomas ($8,000) & WR-Brandin Cooks ($7,900): The Saints-Patriots matchup has all of the makings of an old-fashioned western shootout at the O.K. Corral. Both teams have two prolific passers and with secondaries that struggled mightily in week one; need I say more. Both Thomas and Cooks are going to see plenty of shots down the field on each side and could be in for big nights in this Clash of the (quarterback) Titans; Brady versus Brees.

WR-Nelson Agholor ($5,500): The Eagles receiver was effective and open a lot in week one and should remain on his quarterback’s radar in this week 2 road match up with the Chiefs. At his price, he offers great value for a receiver who figures to see his fair share; Agholor was target 8 times turning in a line of 6/86/1 in week 1. Similar numbers could surface on Sunday.

TE-Jared Cook ($5,100): At his price Cook is a great value in a preferable matchup this week. Cook was 5 for 5 (targets & catches) for 56 yards, but could see increased production against a Jets defense surrendered 14.30 fantasy points to the tight end last week. I like him this week as a stack with Carr.

K-Will Lutz ($4,700): With the Patriots coming to town this week, the Sunday affair figures to be a shoot and a lot of points. Lutz should be very busy once again after putting up 14 fantasy points in week 1.

D-Buccaneers ($4,500): I am going with gut instinct here. Bucs will be at home in which should be an emotional game with the recent events. Winston and company should help control tempo and allow the defense to stay aggressive.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 12th 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

It may be too soon to panic for some, for others it’s time to make moves. If you are making a move, these are the players to consider picking up for Week 2;

Tarik Cohen (PPR value) The Bears rookie running back only saw five touches in the backfield, but his 12 targets may be something for owners to follow. The volume may be an indication of his usage going forward.

Shane Vereen (PPR value) The Giants running back saw the bulk of his work come very late in the game as he turned 10 targets into 9 receptions. The Giants running game struggled which could be a recurring theme this season, indicating Vereen could see more work.

Javorius Allen (PPR value) The Ravens lose Danny Woodhead for 2 months and fantasy owners find Buck Allen. Allen is a capable pass catcher and will likely fill the role Woodhead was playing.

Nelson Agholor (PPR value) The Eagles wide receiver saw 8 targets in week and finished with a line of 6/86/1. Likely undrafted if available, Agholor should continue to be involved in the passing game and be a safe play for owners.

JJ Nelson (PPR value) The Cardinals receiver was productive in week 1 finishing with 5 catches for 43 yards receiving and a score on 6 targets. With Davin Johnson sidelined for 2-3 months, the offense may now have to go through quarterback Carson Palmer. Nelson could see even more work going forward.

Cooper Kupp (PPR value) The Rams rookie looked sure handed and reliable on Sunday turning in a line of 4/76/1 on 6 targets. He’s going to be a popular pick up and worthy addition.

Travis Benjamin (standard value) The Chargers deep threat is going to more of a boom or bust play, but has fantasy relevance. He was able to shake loose against a sound Denver secondary, he’s surely to find more success going forward and could be worth a roster spot.

Keep your eyes on.

Jermaine Kearse (PPR value) It may be an early move here, but a new addition to the Jets passing game turned in 7 receptions for 59 yards. Kearse saw 9 targets indicating he could become a mainstay, but owners will have to play this as a wait and see.

Terrance Williams (PPR value) The Cowboys other receiver was busy Sunday night hauling in 6 passes for 68 yards on 7 targets. These are not numbers that jump off the board, but there’s enough there for owners to take notice. He’s a wait and see proposition as well.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega