FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 23rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week two was a rough week for DFS picks. The Lions connection (Goff-to-St.Brown) fared well, but Travis Etienne Jr, Darnell Mooney (injured), and Adam Trautman all fell flat in week 2. The Chiefs decided to play good defense on the road and shut down Etienne, Mooney ended up pulling a now show, and Trautman became the forgotten man in Denver. 

Even when you’re down, you gotta look up and move on.

Now looking forward to NFL Sunday, Week 3 I am planning my redemption and huge bounce back with some strong plays. These are players that deserve Week 3 consideration.

QB-Trevor Lawrence ($6800) - I love this game as a great bounce back opportunity for Lawrence and company. Lawrence, currently the fantasy QB22, is home again this week and faces a Texans defense that is allowing a high 76.3 completion rate through the first two weeks. Lawrence and the offense were off last week against the Chiefs defense, but will look to get right in this one by taking advantage of the Texans deficiency in the Red Zone, 7 touchdowns allowed in 9 trips.

RB-Tony Pollard ($8000) - The Cowboys running back is currently the fantasy RB4 with 191 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns. Through the team’s first two games Pollard has been heavily involved with 50 touches (25 avg/game), so I expect to see this continue on Sunday. The Cardinals defense has been stingy thus far in two games this season, but they have also allowed three total touchdowns (1 rush, 2 rec) to opposing running backs. I am betting on Pollard’s volume.

WR-Calvin Ridley ($7200) - I like this stack, Ridley paired with Lawrence on Sunday. Last week the two weren’t in sync, only connected twice for 32 yards on 8 targets. I am betting these two will get this corrected on Sunday and capitalize against the Texans secondary that allows the third highest rate of completion to wide receivers.

WR-Nico Collins ($5300) - Clearly Collins is greatly underpriced, which is our win. Through two weeks of action he ranks as fantasy WR7. Averaging 10 targets per game thus far this season, the volume is there for Collins to produce. I love the matchup in a contest where the Texans could be playing from behind and have to air it out more.

TE-Hayden Hurst ($3800) - The return of the “Red Rifle” (Andy Dalton) this week has me thinking check down and safely value. Enter Hayden Hurst, currently fantasy TE7. He’s more than a capable receiver, as evidenced in his week one outing where he was targeted 7 times, caught five balls for 41 yards and one touchdown. With Dalton under center, I see the tight end getting more usage on Sunday.

These are my favorite plays for Week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 17th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

My Week 11 Fantasy Favorites

Believe me when I say, there’s no deep research here. I’m not using any algorithms or scientific formulas, but at the same time I am not flipping coins or selecting the more dominant state flowers. I just go by what my eyes see and what the numbers tell me. After 10 weeks of action, these are my favorite plays for Sunday Week 11;

Derek Carr (Oak); I like the Raiders quarterback at home this week against the Patriots. And while some believe the Pats defense is playing much better, let’s not confuse Brock Osweiler with Derek Carr. The talent level and abilities are not comparable. I expect a huge day for Carr.

Latavius Murray (Min); The Rams have not been great against the run this season and their secondary is going to have all they can handle with the Wonder Twins (Diggs & Thielen) on Sunday. Murray should see a healthy number of carries (14-18) this week, enough to do some damage. He could break off a few big runs if he can get to that second level. The Rams safeties won’t be able to cheat up and will likely be making most of their tackles 5-6 yards beyond the line-of-scrimmage.

Melvin Gordon (LAC); Last week was Austin Ekeler outplaying Melvin, but this week look for Gordon to bounce back in a big way against the Bills. Gordon will line up against a defense that has allowed the 6th most rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) this season. Gordon should get plenty of play on Sunday and turn in a great effort.

Michael Crabtree (Oak); With Carr expected to have a big day on Sunday according to me, Crabtree should be one of the big recipients. The Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points, 3rd most receptions, and the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. Crabtree is the No.23 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and will look to climb the board on Sunday.

Nelson Agholor (Phi); The Eagles wide receiver has been a quiet surprise this season, scoring in five of his first seven games. He’s been off the past two games, but he’s got a tasty matchup on Sunday against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers. I am expecting Agholor to make at least one trip to pay dirt.

Travis Kelce (KC); Quite simply the Giants defense has played the worst against opposing tight ends this season. Kelce will matchup against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards (632 yards) and the most touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends; sounds like a big day coming for Travis.

That's My Take.
~David Ortega