FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

February 5th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

How Will They Play On Sunday

Super Sunday Forecast

Aaron Rodgers:
With a strong arm and quick release, the Packers signal caller should have little trouble navigating his offense up and down the field through the air. Rodgers finished the 2010 season with nearly 4,000 yards passing and 28 touchdowns, on Sunday the Steelers secondary will see up close much better this kid grown since their 2009 meeting.
(My prediction; 24 of 36 passing, 325 yards passing, three touchdowns, 25 yards rushing)

Greg Jennings:
Jennings has been an unstoppable force the past couple of games with 16 receptions and 231 yards receiving. Jennings caught 12 touchdown passes during the regular season, but has yet to reach pay-dirt in the playoffs. In the 2009 matchup Jennings was big with five catches and more than 100 yards receiving; he was also able to beat the Steelers secondary for a score. He will be a prime target for Rodgers in the red-zone and over the top.
(My prediction; 6 receptions, 105 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Ben Roethlisberger:
The Steelers big-armed quarterback will be called on frequently Sunday to make plays against the Packers 5th ranked defense. While Big Ben has been relatively quiet in the playoffs he did pass for 3,200 yards and toss 17 touchdowns in 12 games during the 2010 regular season. Big Ben set a career high with 503 yards passing last season against the Packers; he may not have another 500-yard game, but he’s going to be a busy man on Super Sunday.
(My prediction; 25 of 40 passing, 275 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception, 15 yards rushing)

Rashard Mendenhall:
The Steelers normally a much better run team ranked just 11th this season on the ground. Running back Rashard Mendenhall led the club with nearly 1,300 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. On Sunday the Black and Gold will lean heavily on Mendenhall early to chew clock, set the tempo, and control the line of scrimmage, but once they fall behind the against the Packers explosive offense they will have to rely more on Big Ben to keep pace.
(My prediction; 18 carries, 75 yards rushing, two receptions 10 yards, one touchdown)

Packers Defense:
The biggest key to a Packers win on Sunday could simply lie with the effectiveness of their pass rush against the Steelers’ offense. The Packers defense finished the 2010 regular season 47 sacks and 24 interceptions ranking second in both categories. On Sunday they will use a complex and aggressive pass rushing scheme to confuse and get to the Steelers’ quarterback. They will surrender some yards, but they will also make some plays.
(My prediction; five sacks, one interceptions, and two fumbles)

Notables to watch…

Tight end Andrew Quarless may not be in line to see a whole lot of passes his direction, but with the Steelers struggles against opposing tight ends, expect head coach Mike McCarthy to try and exploit any mismatches. Quarless is not the same athelete as Jermichael Finley, but he is nearly as big a target and could come up big in the red zone.

The Packers secondary will be looking to take away Steelers’ wide receiver (and Big Ben’s favorite target) Mike Wallace, who has been quiet in the post season, look for rookie receiver Emmanuel Sanders to possibly pick up some of the slack. Sanders has five grabs and 74 yards receiving in the playoffs.

Just my take

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 3rd, 2011 Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

More Fantasy Notes

Could Super Sunday Be a Repeat?

A Look Back at Last Year

The Packers passing offense was explosive in the December 2009 meeting against the Steelers led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. In a game where their running game was pretty much non-existent (60 yards and 22 came Rodgers) it was Rodgers who provided the spark the Packers would need. Against the Steelers secondary the Packer’s signal caller completed 26 of 48 passes for 383 yards in the air and he accounted for four scores; three pass, one run.

Rodgers was complimented with some great talent in the passing game with players like Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Donald Driver, and Jordy Nelson. Jennings led the group with five grabs for a buck-eighteen and a score. Driver was also effective with three grabs for 76 yards while Nelson caught four balls for another 71 yards. Finley was big in the last seasons’ contest, but with him out in this year’s clash, the Packers could be looking for players like Nelson and James Jones (2 catches, 36 yards, one touchdown in the 2009 matchup) to step up.

On the Steeler’s side, it was quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who provided the most memorable performance completing 29 of 46 passes for more than 500 yards. Like his counterpart, Big Ben operated without much of a run game (65 total rushing yards), but he got plenty of help from his friends as he passed for 503 yards against the Packers.

Big Ben’s biggest asset against the Packers was his trusty old companion wide receiver Hines Ward (7 receptions, 126 yards receiving). Wide receiver Mike Wallace was also the team’s most effective weapon with the long ball catching two passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns; he could be huge impact player on Sunday. The Steelers tight end Heath Miller was also big last season against the Pack posting a career high 118 yards receiving with seven receptions. Santonio Holmes (now with the Jets) also grabbed three passes for 77 yards, so the Steelers will be looking to one of their rookies (Emmanuel Sanders and Aaron Brown) to pick up the slack.

While this 37-36 shootout between the Packers and Steelers featured plenty of offense, there was some evidence of defense displayed by the Packers who sacked Big Ben five times. Surprisingly with 94 passes thrown and a total of 131 offensive plays called there were no turnovers in the game.

Sunday will likely not turn out to be exactly like the matchup we witnessed in 2009, but it certainly has all the makings of a great one.

Keep Your Eye On

A couple of notable points to keep in mind, although both team struggled on the ground, there were three rushing touchdowns scored; running backs James Starks (Packers) and Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers) should definitely see a couple of chances at the goal-line on Sunday.

The Steelers pass defense struggled through the post season gainst opposing tight ends allowing 11 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. The Packers tight end Andrew Quarless has been quiet throughout the playoffs, but has a chance to make a difference on the big stage.

Heath Miller has not made much noise in the post season, and while you can’t forget his big game last season against the Pack, you must note the Packer’s secondary has been stifling against opposing tight ends in the playoffs; six catches for 62 yards in three games.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 2nd, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Who’s Hot

Mendenhall Carrying the Load
The Steelers running back has been enjoying plenty of fantasy success this post season with three rushing touchdowns in the two games. Mendenhall has been carrying quite the load for the team’s ground game averaging 25 touches per game in the playoffs. He has also added 167 yards on the ground and 45 yards receiving.

Jennings Too Hot to Stop
The Packers playmaker has been on a recent tear averaging eight catches and over 115 yards receiving in his last two games. With 17 total receptions and 239 yards receiving in the post season, Jennings leads all receivers, but he has yet to find the end-zone.

Rodgers Keeps on Rolling
Since the end of October Rodgers has been a hot fantasy commodity and fantastic on the field; he has 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions. In his three starts in the post season Rodgers has passed for 790 yards and thrown six touchdowns while completing 71 percent of his passes; his passer rating in the playoffs is 109.2.

Nelson is Making a Little Noise
After a quiet Wild Card weekend, the Packers number three receiver has become a steady contributor to the passing game. In his last two starts wide receiver Jordy Nelson is averaging six receptions and 73 yards receiving per game; he’ll be on player watch come Super Sunday.

Starks Keeps Churning Out the Yards
The Packers rookie running back has been steady throughout the playoffs averaging 23 carries and nearly 90 yards per game with one rushing touchdown. Running back James Starks leads all NFL ball carriers in the post season with 263 yards on the ground; he figures to play a big role on Super Sunday.

James Harrison Has Been a Terror
The Steelers bad man has not only been delivering big hits in the preseason, he has also been wrecking havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Linebacker James Harrison has three sacks to go along with 14 total tackles in just two playoff games.

The Wild Man Has Been Playing Like a Beast
Linebacker Clay Matthews has been on a rampage in the playoffs racking up three and a half sacks with 13 total tackles. Matthews finished the year with 13 and half sacks, he’ll likely be in Big Ben’s ear most of day on Super Sunday.

Who’s not

Wallace Has Yet to Breakout
The Steelers big play-making threat, wide receiver Mike Wallace has yet to make noise this post season. In two games he has just four catches and 26 yards receiving with no touchdowns; regardless he’ll certainly be under a watchful eye by the Packers secondary on Super Sunday.

Quarless A Non-factor Up to This Point
The Packers starting tight end Andrew Quarless, who was inserted into the lineup to replace the injured Jermichael Finley has yet to be a factor in the playoffs. Quarless has caught just four passes for 41 yards and he was held without a catch in the NFC Championship.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

February 1st, 2011, Tuesday

Monday Morning Huddle
(Tuesday Evening Edition)

Super Bowl Sunday steadily looms with less than a week away and from a fantasy football perspective it promises to be everything the fantasy faithful could hope for; plenty of explosive offense from both sides in the power running game and the long ball over the top. Although this matchup would seem to offer one big play after another, one thing it will not lack by any means is big hits and plenty of defense.

While the Packers boast a lethal passing attack (ranked 5th in the NFL) and one of the leagues top offenses (ranked 9th overall), like their counterparts on Sunday they will be bringing a formidable defense in its’ own right. The Packers defensive unit ranked 5th overall this season and their 24 interceptions ranked second in the NFL. The pass rush led by linebacker Clay Matthews Jr. and defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins totaled 47 this season, second only to the Steelers’ 48 sacks.

The Steeler’s offense will boast plenty of firepower of its’ own on Sunday with Big Ben, Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, but its’ the defense that many should take notice of; ranked 2nd overall, the Steelers’ defense allowed just five rushing touchdowns all season and ranked third in the league with 35 takeaways. Players like James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Troy Polamalu anchor a stifling defense that can dominate its’ opponent.

Both the Packers and Steelers defense are as good as they get and while they may be over-shadowed a bit this week by their playmaking offenses, these two units will be making plenty of headlines come Super Bowl Sunday.

Top Stories

Brady Earns The Top Honors with AP POY

It came as no surprise that Tom Brady took down the AP Player of the Year honors after his prolific 2010 campaign. Brady finished his regular with 36 touchdowns and just four picks and led the Patriots to a 14-2 regular season record (best in the league). Brady was by far the best fantasy stud in 2010 completing near 66 percent of his passes and throwing for 3,900 yards. His passer rating of 111.0 was the second highest of his career. Brady produced astronomical numbers without the presence of an elite deep threat this past season. If the Patriots keep a lot of the same faces intact for 2011 there’s little doubt that “Terrific Tom” will top most fantasy charts come draft day next season.

Kevin Kolb Has the Talent to Start, But Where?

In limited action we have seen that Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb has the talent and ability to be a starter in the NFL, the only question is where will he be next season? The quarterback seems to be lobbying for his ticker out of Philly and if he gets his way he could easily draw plenty of interest from the fantasy world. Kolb didn’t produce admirable numbers this past season, but he has a career passer rating of 109.6 and has shown modest flashes of brilliance. If Kolb flees “the city of brotherly love” to start elsewhere he likely won’t rank in the top ten next season, but depending on where he lands will definitely impact his value as well as the players he’ll be throwing to.


Just my thoughts.

Fantasy Spotlight Watch

With Sunday fastly approaching there will undoubtedly be plenty of skill players showcasing their talents on the big stage. One such player that may step out from the shadows could be the Steelers’ wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The rookie wideout has plenty of speed and play-making ability to make noise on the big stage. This season he caught just 28 balls, but six were for 20 yards or more. Lining up opposite Wallace and Ward, Sanders could see some favorable matchups downfield and become a factor in the passing game.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: ON THE COVER

January 31st, 2011, Monday

On the Cover

Super Bowl Sunday

Packers & Steelers II

Showdown in Texas

It was just 13 months ago that the same two teams that will meet on Super Sunday got together for one of the greatest games played in the history of the NFL; 73 points scored, almost 1,000 yards of offense combined, with the final play deciding the outcome. As if written by some Hollywood play-write, these two historic franchises with some of the richest history in the game we love so much will take to the field of battle this Sunday on the greatest stage of modern sports ever created.

And while last year’s meeting will have very little impact on this year’s matchup on Super Bowl Sunday, one thing worth noting, both teams have changed very little and will likely do a lot of the same as they did a year ago.

What that will mean to the loyal football fan who is planning on being glued to his set to watch and experience this historic battle of two well respected and very successful franchises (Steelers have 6 SB titles, Packers own three); plan your bathroom breaks carefully and make sure your TIVO is working. You won’t want to miss a thing.

In last year’s memorable matchup, nine touchdowns were scored, one two-point conversion made, two pass plays of 60 yards or more for a touchdown (including an 83 yarder by Greg Jennings), 94 combined passes thrown by both quarterbacks, 46 combined first downs, and 848 total passing yards in the game. The element that was missing from this matchup was the evidence of a ground game; the Packers rushed for 60 yards on 12 carries, while the Steelers picked up 65 yards on 19 carries. This years’ meeting could very well take on the same look and feel as a year ago, but both teams will undoubtedly make a real effort to try an establish some kind of ground control; if anything to at the very least slow down the opposing teams pass rush.

Whatever shape or form this game eventually takes on, one thing we can all be sure of this will most certainly be must-see TV. So get your popcorn ready!

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

January 30th, 2011, Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime
(afternoon edition)

Super Bowl XLV Countdown

Injury notes

The Steelers are looking like a team that may have a few concerns as the Big Dance approaches. Following their big win against the Jets in the AFC Championship the Steelers realized their victory may have come at a significant cost with the possible loss of rookie center Maurkice Pouncey. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, Pouncey is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play in the Super Bowl.

The Steelers could also miss defensive end Aaron Smith who remains questionable for the Big Dance. Smith suffered a triceps injury that has sidelined him most of the season, but the team is hopeful he can play on February 6th. Even is Smith is healthy enough to go, he’d likely split time with Ziggy Hood who has played exceptional in his spot.

The Steelers have a few other notables listed, but no one appears to be in any danger of missing Super Sunday. Troy Polamalu (Achilles), Bryant McFadden (groin), and Emmanuel Sanders (toe) all practiced on Friday and are listed as probable. The biggest concern here would be Polamalu, who was relatively quiet in the AFC Championship; when he is healthy and plays well the Steelers defense has thrived.

The only noteworthy injury at this point for the Packers leading up to Super Sunday is linebacker Eric Walden’s ankle. He sat out of Saturday’s practice to rest the sore ankle, but is fully expected to be ready and would start opposite Clay Matthews Jr.

Fantasy Player Notes

With the Big Show looming ever so closer now (less than a week away), it time to start dissecting matchups and taking a closer look at some of the players that could rise up in the big stage and make a huge contribution.

The Packers passing attack goes four deep at the wide receiver position making all four (Jennings, Driver, Nelson, & Jones) viable plays for Super Sunday. Another pass receiving option that could become a huge factor during the course of the game would be tight end Andrew Quarless.

In last year’s shootout between the Steelers and the Packers, then starting tight end Jermichael Finley was a significant factor in the passing attack. Finley finished the game with nine receptions including a touchdown and against the Jets (tight end) Dustin Keller grabbed eight passes. Quarless is no Finley, but at 6’4” and 250-lbs he can be a very effective redzone target.

The Steelers are not consider to be a passing team, but they will have plenty of weapons should they need to go to the air. One of their lesser known weapons that could make a name for himself on Sunday is rookie wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The kid is second on the team with five catches for 74 yards in the playoffs and has as many targets as Mike Wallace (10). With coverage rolling toward Wallace, Sanders could find a few openings.

Looking Ahead to 2011

Later today in Hawaii many football fans are going to have a chance to see a lot of next season’s fantasy studs showcase their talents. Names that are making their first appearance in the pro bowl and that should be catching the attention of fantasy owners would include;

RB-Arian Foster,…he led the NFL in rushing (1,616 yards rushing in 2010) in just his second year and scored 18 total touchdowns (16 rushing, 2 receiving). Foster also added 66 receptions and 604 yards receiving making him a very attractive overall top fantasy pick in 2011.

RB-Jamaal Charles….following his impressive 2009 season the Chiefs starter came back with a huge 2010 campaign to earn his first trip to the Pro Bowl. Charles finished 2010 with 1,935 total yards (1,467 rushing, 468 receiving) of offense with eight total touchdowns (5 rushing, 3 receiving); he will be a 1st round fantasy pick in 2011.

WR-Brandon Lloyd…..he makes his first appearance to the Pro Bowl this season finishing 2010 with career highs in receptions (77), yards receiving (1,448 yards), and touchdowns (11). He will be an interesting fantasy draft pick, since his quarterback situation could change.

TE-Marcedes Lewis…he emerged as a viable and legitimate redzone scoring threat catching 10 touchdown passes in 2010. Lewis also finished his 2010 campaign with career highs in all three categories; receptions (58), yards receiving (700), and touchdowns (10). He will be a highly rated fantasy TE next season.

By David Ortega