FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 1st, 2010 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

Week 17 Matchups to watch…

Carolina @ Atlanta
….the Falcons will be staking their claim on their first division title since 2004 and there’s no question they will be riding the legs of Michael Turner (1,304 yards, 11 touchdowns). The Panthers rank 23rd against the run and have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns (2nd most in the league) this season. They will have their hands full trying to slow down the Falcons ground game (ranked 11th). In their first meeting this season Turner toted the rock 28 times for 112 yards and crossed the goal line three times.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
…..running back Peyton Hillis has been a fantasy sleeper that has been awoken in 2010. He emerged as the Brown’s featured starter in week 3 and has not looked back. Hillis has rushed for over 1,100 yards this season and ranks second on the team with 60 receptions. There’s no doubt he has brought a fantasy championship to many owners with his stellar play this season, but in week 17 he could be running into a brick wall. On Sunday he’ll face the NFL’s number one rush defense (Steelers), the same club that limited him to just 41 yards on 12 carries back in week 6. The Steelers defense has not allowed a single 100-yard rusher all season and tomorrow doesn’t look like they’ll start.

Oakland @ Kansas City
….the Chiefs ranked number one in the league in rushing and on Sunday against Raiders they figure to do more of what they do so well. With the one-two punch of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, the Chiefs will attack the Raiders 29th ranked run defense. Charles has been tremendous this season with nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and over 450 yards receiving. He figures to get a full work load on Sunday against a Raider defense that he victimized for 100 total yards in week 9. The Raiders did a good job of slowing down Charles in their first meeting (53 yards rushing), but the Chiefs explosive back has been running very well recently averaging over 8 yards per carry in his last two games.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
…..the Saints are still looking for a division title and it never hurts to send a message. Last Monday they showed the Falcons they are still the defending champions and on Sunday they figure to show the Buccaneers as well. Drew Brees and company will roll their 2nd ranked passing offense into the Superdome on Sunday to face the Bucs 6th ranked pass defense. Brees has been solid once again in 2010 with 32 touchdowns, 7-300 yard games, and over 4,400 yards passing. In his first matchup with the Bucs, Brees torched his advisory for 263 yards and three scores; make no mistake Brees won’t leave Sunday to chance.

Buffalo @ New York Jets
….the Jets figure to rest some players on Sunday, but running back Shonn Greene doesn’t look to be one of them. With the league’s 31st ranked run defense in town, Rex Ryan is expected to rest Tomlinson and give his back-up some tune up work for the playoffs. In their first meeting this season against the Bills, both Jets running backs turned in 100-yard efforts. Greene may not hit the dual century mark, but he figures to rack up a lot on the ground.

While the Jets ground game could get loose against the very questionable Bill’s defense, the Jets defense could also have their hands full with shutdown corner Darelle Revis expected to sit. It not official, but with Revis out the Bills passing game, including wide receiver Stevie Johnson could receive a huge upgrade. Johnson did score in the first matchup, but was relatively quiet for the game with just three catches. Since their first meeting Johnson has emerged as the team’s number one receiver and is enjoying a breakout season (77 receptions, 1,001 yards, 10 touchdowns). He will likely be featured on Sunday.

These are just my takes on how I see it on Sunday…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (THE FOUR HORSEMEN)

January 1st, 2011 Saturday

The Four Horsemen

Let’em Ride

Week 16 was not kind to our horsemen as our riders struggled mightily to find pay-dirt. Only quarterback Philip Rivers (256 yards passing, one touchdown) was able to record a touchdown for last week’s horsemen. Both wide receiver Marques Colston (21 receiving yards) and tight end Marcedes Lewis (37 yards) were quiet last week with just a few grabs each and no trips to the end-zone. Only running back Arian Foster had a game worth noting totaling 135 yards of offense, but even he playing against the league’s 31st ranked run defense could not squeeze in a score.

This week our riders will look to change our scoreless trend from a week ago. With the final weekend featuring several absentees the search for our fearless foursome was not easy. When looking over the week 17 schedule, these are our gridiron cowboys that look poised to saddle up and ride on…..

Quarterback:
The Steelers will be leaving it all on the line this weekend with a division title and the number two seed at risk. In their first meeting against the Browns this season quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was solid throwing for 257 yards on 16 of 27 passing. Big Ben made plays with his arm throwing three touchdowns against the Browns and had five pass plays of 20 yards or more. The Browns 13th ranked secondary has not been all bad this season, but they have allowed 23 passing touchdowns and 44 pass plays of 20 yards or more. With so much at stake for the Steelers expect Big Ben to again make plays on Sunday with his arm
(My Prediction: 20 of 32 passing, 275 yards, three touchdowns, 15 yards rushing)

Running Back:
The Eagles may not have a lot at stake on Sunday, but it will still be business as usual for running back LeSean McCoy. The Eagles second year running back has really emerged as a versatile featured back in the offense. McCoy leads the team with 78 receptions and has rushed for more than 1,000 yards. He has quietly elevated his fantasy value to amongst the elite and this weekend against the Cowboys 14th ranked defense he figures to pad his stats; in week 14 he torched the Boys for 149 yards on the ground.
(My Prediction: 18 carries, 105 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 15 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Wide Receiver:
The Jaguars will be without two of their best players on Sunday when they meet the Houston Texans, but they will still have their most productive wide receiver Mike Thomas (65 receptions, 808 yards receiving). The Texans secondary ranked last in the league has struggled terribly all season long allowing 32 touchdowns and 55 pass plays of 20 yards or more. When Thomas takes the field on Sunday, he should still see plenty of balls in his direction even with back-up quarterback Trent Edwards under center. Edwards started the team’s first two games this season and had a nice rapport with Thomas (caught 10 passes in first two games this season).
(My Prediction: 7 receptions, 90 yards, one touchdown)

Tight End:
The Eagles are expected to start quarterback Kevin Kolb on Sunday, giving Michael Vick time to rest. Kolb is no stranger to the offense having started four times this season. Last week tight Brent Celek had the hot hand catching 10 balls for 97 yards in the team’s week 16 loss to the Vikings.The change under center should not hurt Celek this weekend. Last year in back to back starts (week 2 & 3) with Kolb starting the Eagles tight end caught 8 passes for 104 yards in each game. Kolb has shown great chemistry with his other receivers this season, but he is quite familiar with Celek and figures to look his way often this Sunday.
(My Prediction: 6 receptions, 65 yards, one touchdown)

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY FANTASY WATCH

December 31st, 2010, Friday

Friday Fantasy Watch

Shonn Greene: Greene set to get some work

The Jets could be giving some players the day off this Sunday, but running back Shonn Greene does not appear to be one. With reports of running back LaDanian Tomlinson resting on Sunday Greene figures to get the brunt of the load against the Bills.

The Bills are ranked dead last against the run and while he has been splitting carries down the stretch, Greene has actually been the more effective runner in the Jets backfield. Greene rushed for 70 yards on 12 carries last week against the Bears with a touchdown and could see a more productive afternoon this Sunday.

Sunday’s projections against the Bills.
(20 carries, 115 yards rushing, 2 catches, 15 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Matt Forte: All Signs Indicate A Day Off

The Bears have been giving some of their back-up running backs extra reps in practice this week indicating that Forte could share more of the load this week. Forte has been the primary ball carrier this season, but with the division locked up and not much more to gain it would make sense to rest some of the starters.

Forte is having a productive season and has been particularly strong down the stretch, but if Sunday’s contest against the Packers is decided early it’s very possible Forte could see an early exit.

Sunday’s projections against the Packers.
(12 carries, 45 yards rushing, one catch, 10 yards receiving)

Jacoby Jones: Could Be In For Another Strong Outing

The Texans are likely to be without wide receiver Andre Johnson (ankle) this Sunday against the Jaguars. With Johnson listed as doubtful, wide receiver Jacoby Jones is expected to start in his place. Jones has started six games this season and has 46 receptions this season; including 17 in his last three games.

Jones started last Sunday in place of the injured Johnson and turned in a solid performance with five catches for 115 yards on seven targets. This week the Texans meet the Jacksonville and Jones will line up against the leagues 26th ranked pass defense. The Texans are playing for pride this week and will likely ride their sixth ranked passing offense; expect Jones to be a big part of the passing attack.

Sunday’s projections against the Jagaurs.
(5 catches, 105 yards passing, one touchdown)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

December 30th, 2010, Thursday

My Weekly Survivors

It looks like we picked the worst time to have a bad week in our season long chase for a Suicide fantasy football championship. With the season winding down and fewer chances to make a move to the top last week was one to forget.

Week 16 did not go so well with a few of our picks tanking big time. With Marion Barber returning to the field last week, Tashard Choice saw very few touches and totaled only two points. On Monday night Marques Colston turned in one of his quietest games with just two catches for 21 yards (two points). Ben Watson kept our hard luck with the tight ends going another week with a poor fantasy outing last Sunday against the Ravens (2 points). The only highlights of our week 16 team picks were quarterback Matt Schaub (16 points) and place kicker Neil Rackers (11 points).

This week we enter the season finale with all hopes of a run at the top now a distant memory. With one lineup left to submit a lineup and currently residing in the 8th spot, a top five finish still looks possible. This week will offer some unique challenges with the possibility of some players sitting (resting), but like every week we’ll just have to dig a little deeper to find this week’s stars on Sunday.

Here are my picks for week 17….

QB-Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers still have a lot left to play for, so Big Ben should be a busy man on Sunday making plays. In their first meeting versus the Browns back in week 6, Roethlisberger passed for 257 yards and tossed three touchdowns. The Steelers have won five of their last six and a win on Sunday will deliver a division title; expect Big Ben to play a big part.
(Projected: 20 fantasy points/ 250 yards passing, two touchdowns, 25 rushing yards)

RB- Shonn Greene, New York Jets
The Jets have clinched a playoff berth, but have no shot at the division. With Sunday’s meeting with the Bills having very little impact on their playoff seeding it sounds like several Jets could be rested; including LaDanian Tomlinson. With LT likely to see the bench on Sunday it could be a very productive day for running back Shonn Greene (766 yards rushing in 2010).
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 105 yards rushing, 2 catches, 10 yards receiving, one touchdown)

RB-Ryan Matthews, San Diego Chargers
The Chargers’ running back is healthy again, running well, and has seen his most extensive action of this season over the past three weeks. Mathews is averaging 16 touches per game in his last three games and 3.9 yards per carry. With Mike Tolbert ruled out is should be all Mathews against the Broncos’ 31st ranked run defense.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 85 yards rushing, 3 catches, 30 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Mario Manningham, New York Giants
The Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham has been on fire over the past couple of weeks and could be even bigger with Hakeem Nicks not expected to play this Sunday. Manningham has posted consecutive 100 yard receiving games and this week he’ll face the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense in week 17; he looks like a good bet to make it three straight.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 7 catches, 110 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans
The Texans have the sixth ranked passing offense in the league making their receivers look very attractive in week 17 against the Jaguars 26th ranked pass defense. With Andre Johnson inactive last week, wide receiver Jacoby Jones got the nod to start and turned in strong performance with five catches for 115 yards. If Johnson sits, Jones looks to be a good play against a weak secondary. If Johnson decides to go, he would be the preferred play here.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 4 catches, 85 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Kellen Winslow Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winslow leads the team in catches this season with 63 and is coming off a big Sunday with seven grabs and two scores. With the Bucs still in the post season hunt, quarterback Josh Freeman will be sure to look his way often. In their first matchup this season against the Saints, Winslow did not total a lot of yards, but was targeted 10 times and caught 7 passes. He figures to be busy in the rematch.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 80 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts rank 3rd in the league in scoring this season averaging just over 27points per contest, but at home in their last two games have totaled 69 points. With the Titans in town this Sunday, the Colts look like a good bet to post another 30 point effort. Vinatieri has been gold this season making 23 of 25 field goals and he is perfect at home on 13 tries.
(Projected: 12 fantasy points/ three field goals, three extra points)

Last week’s results

(Week 16 Points=41, Total Season Points=1,192, 8th place)
QB-Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
RB- Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys
RB-Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers
WR-Santana Moss, Washington Redskins
WR-Marques Coltson, New Orleans Saints
TE-Ben Watson, Cleveland Browns
PK-Neil Rackers, Houston Texans

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 29th, 2010 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ROBERT MEACHEM BLOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT
One of the Saints big play deep threats has been on and off all season, but Monday night he came up big with his best game of the season. Meachem racked up 10 catches for 101 yards receiving off 13 targets (his most targets in a single game all season).
My Fantasy Read:
The Saints still have a lot to play for with a division title still up for grabs. Although he’s coming off a solid Monday night, Meachem is too inconsistent to be relied upon. Brees has the ability to spread the ball around to any of his receiving options making Meachem a risky play at best.

JOSH FREEMAN HAS A FANTASY SUNDAY
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman saved his best for last (or at least week 16). Last Sunday against the Seahawks Freeman was brilliant completing 21 of 26 passes, throwing five touchdown, and passing for 237 yards in the team’s week 16 win.
My Fantasy Read:
The Buccaneers are still battling for a post-season berth, so Freeman could be a preferred option under center with names like Brady, Vick, and Cutler expected to see limited action on Sunday.

MATT CASSEL IS COOL ON SUNDAY
With a division title hanging in the balance the Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel was cool in the clutch leading his team to their 10th win of the season and their first division title since 2003. Cassel completed 24 of 34 passes for over 300 yards (only the second time this season) an tossed three touchdowns (27 this season).
My Fantasy Read:
Even with the division wrapped up, the Chiefs are not expected to rest their starters this weekend. Although there is not a lot to gain with a win, Cassel will start and should be one of the more reliable starters this weekend.

DANNY WOODHEAD FINDS PAY-DIRT
The Patriots running back Danny Woodhead took advantage of some extra work last Sunday rushing for 93 yards with a touchdown on 13 carries. Woodhead was also effective in the pass game snagging three balls on four targets for 32 yards. His 125 total yards of offense was his most productive game of the season.
My Fantasy Read:
The Patriots’ small package of dynamite continues to be a valuable asset to the offense, but with Woodhead only averaging 10-12 touches per game he typically has limited fantasy value as a flex option. With the Patriots wrapping up the division and home field this past week Woodhead could see some extended action this coming Sunday.

DOMINIC RHODES GETS SOME WORK ON SUNDAY
The Colts running game received a much needed boost last Sunday from running back Dominic Rhodes. It was only his second game back with the Colts, but Rhodes took advantage of the opportunity rushing for 98 yards on 17 carries.
My Fantasy Read:
It was a nice afternoon for the returning Colt, but with Joseph Addai (12 carries for 45 yards) returning to action Rhodes is only going to see fewer touches going forward. His fantasy stardom looks short lived.

FSH NOTEBOOK: ON THE COVER

December 27th, 2010, Monday

On the Cover

Gateway to the West

The Chiefs win the AFC West

With all the talk about the San Diego Chargers in December someone forgot to mention to the Chiefs that they were not supposed to win the West. After defeating the defending West champions on the first Monday night of the season the Chiefs have not looked back.

After 16 weeks of sitting in first place of the AFC West with their decisive win over the Titans this past weekend the Kansas City Chiefs have locked down their first division title since the 2003 season. It really should come as no surprise seeing the Chiefs win the division when you look at how they got it done.

The Chiefs were not expected to contend for the division title this season, but rather the Chargers were the preseason pick. And when the Bolts started to play and look better in December a lot of folks, including myself expected them to take the division as they have time and again. One thing I did overlook was Todd Haley and the Chiefs.

From week one the Chiefs have clearly been the best team in the AFC West with a balanced offense that features the league’s number one ground attack. The Chiefs have proven this season to be a ball control offense with a run first mentality, but their 28th ranked passing offense led by quarterback Matt Cassel should not be overlooked.

Cassel is having a fantastic (3,001 yards passing, 60.2 completion pct) season under center in only his second season with the Chiefs; his 27 passing touchdowns this season ranks 6th in the league, while his five interceptions rank 2nd fewest. The Chiefs signal caller is also the 5th highest rated passer in the league behind names like; Brady, Rivers, Vick, and Rogers.

While some may be surprised by what the Chiefs have managed in only Todd Haley’s second year at the helm, they should not be. What Haley has done is constructed a well balanced club that in many ways mirrors a team from the northeast (that has enjoyed similar success).

The Chiefs play ball control (ranked 8th in the league in TOP) with the league’s best ground attack lead by running back Jamaal Charles (1,380 yards rushing) and Thomas Jones (6 touchdowns), but they also have weapons with players like wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (15 touchdowns) to stretch the field. The secret to their success is playing mistake free ball and their 11th ranked opportunistic defense (three defensive touchdowns this season); their +10 turnover ratio ranks 5th in the league.

At 10-5 the Chiefs will have a chance this weekend to earn their 11th win of the season with a victory over their divisional rival Oakland Raiders. This is quite a turnaround following a season where they won just four games. With a perfect 7-0 record at home this season and their first playoff game since 2003 to be played at Arrowhead Stadium, the under-rated Chiefs might not be done just yet.

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 26th, 2010, Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Today’s injury notes

The Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez practiced Friday and is expected to start today against the Bears according to ESPN. Sanchez is dealing with a sore shoulder, but did not suffer any setbacks this week; he is clear to play and will start.

The Patriots are likely to go after their 13th win and a chance to clinch a division title today without rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. He has been downgraded to doubtful with a hip injury and is not expected to play today, according to the Patriots Twitter feed.

The Jaguars are not expecting running back Maurice Jones-Drew to be available today against the Redskins. MJD missed practice all week and looks doubtful for today’s matchup. Running back Rashard Jennings would get the start if MJD is unable to go.

The Packers will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning to the lineup today against the Giants. Rodgers, recovering from a concussion was cleared earlier in the week to return to the field and practiced well all week with the team this week. He is expected to start.

Before they signs indicated this game could be postponed, the Vikings quarterback Brett Favre was looking doubtful for Sunday night. If the game gets moved, you’d better check back on Favre’s status.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Texan’s are likely to be without wide receiver Andre Johnson (ankle). The Texan’s wideout is listed as doubtful for Sunday, but Johnson will test the ankle during warm-ups; the Texan’s play a late game today.

The Bengals will not have Chad Ochocinco (foot) available today against the visiting Chargers. The team has declared the wide receiver inactive. Rookie receiver Jordan Shipley and Andre Caldwell and expected to start for the injured TO and Ochocinco.

Today’s Matchup

Weather conditions should have little effect on Philip Rivers today, expect to the see the Bolts’ quarterbacks do what he does so well; throw the ball. He should have a big day as one of the top rated quarterbacks in the league.

Rodgers will be a risk and reward play today against the Giants. As long as he is protected he’ll be able to torch the Giants’ secondary, but expect the G-men to come after him with lots of blitzes and pressure. As long as he is standing he’s due for a big passing day.

Rashard Jennings is expected to start in place of the injured MJD, but he is not MJD. The Redskins are however the 27th ranked run defense. Jennings should be productive (90+ total yards), but not likely to have a huge game.

With Andre Johnson ailing, tight end Owen Daniels could become more of a focal point in the pass game against an awful Broncos secondary. Daniels should see plenty of targets today and has a good chance at scoring Sunday.

The Jaguars defense ranks 18th against the run, so expect to see a heavy does of Redskin’s running back Ryan Torain. With Grossman making his second start on Sunday the Redskins would like to get Torain rolling early and see a more balanced attack. Torain leads the team with 616 yards rushing and three touchdowns this season.

By David Ortega