FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition

September 15th, 2018

The Fantasy Football 

Season is Underway!

Well my Fantasy Football Week one was brutal. In my season long leagues, I went a disappointing 0-4; disappointing yes, but not all bad.

In two of my leagues, I lost to the weekly high, so what can you do. In the other two leagues, performances were not up to expectations, but not all was bad. Before I look at the what, let’s take a look at the “how I got there.”

Leading up to the new fantasy football season, based on my draft positions there were a couple of pre-draft targets I had my sights on; WR-DeAndre Hopkins, RB-Royce Freeman, QB-Kirk Cousins, and TE-Trey Burton to name a few players.

There were some disappointing performances from all in week one, but plenty of signs to not panic. Although Hopkins did not put up huge numbers he still had 11 targets (nearly 33 percent of passes thrown by Deshaun Watson). And while Freeman did not blow up in week one, he averaged over 4.5 yards per carry and led the Broncos backfield in snaps. There will be better days.

Digging a little deeper into my drafts and players I was looking for; it looks like WR-John Brown (2 touchdowns in 2 games) and TE-Jared Cook (180 receiving yards in week 1) could be huge surprises this season. It’s still early, but if you took late fliers on these two, you have to be happy with what you are seeing.

The season is just getting started with week 2 already underway. Here are 8 players I like for 2018;

QB-Philip Rivers

Waited too long to take him in my drafts, too bad cause he’s going to be top-8

QB-Alex Smith,

I drafted him late, but I think he’ll play well under Jay Gruden.

RB-Tevin Coleman,

He’s going to get some extra duty early this season with Freeman out.

RB-Dion Lewis,

Watched him a little in preseason, I like what I saw.

WR-Stefon Diggs,

Gets a big contract, will have a big season.

WR-Geronimo Allison,

He showed some flash last season. Should be enough targets for him to shine.

TE-Trey Burton,

Drafted him as my No.1 in a couple of leagues; he’ll finish strong this season.

TE-Vernon Davis,

Definitely a dart throw that could play big late in the season.

That’s my first take for 2019.

~David G Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 6 QB Rankings

I’m showing a lot of confidence in Kirk Cousins this week. I saw solid back-to-back games in weeks 3 & 4; if not for a dropped pass in the end zone, Cousins numbers would have looked that much better and the Redskins would be coming off a two game winning streak. Cousins is only the No.16 fantasy QB through five weeks, but I think he’s on the move and I like him as my No.6 QB this week.

Like Cousins, I think Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (No.11 fantasy QB) is set to deliver another strong performance. In his last two starts, Rivers is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game; he has passed for over 600 yards and tossed 5 touchdowns. Rivers is rolling and should continue against a Raiders defense that has yet to register an interception. I have Rivers coming in as my No.8 QB this week.

QB Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Matt Ryan

5. Deshaun Watson

6. Kirk Cousins

7. Carson Palmer

8. Philip Rivers

9. Alex Smith

10. Jameis Winston

11. Matthew Stafford

12. Derek Carr

13. Ben Roethlisberger

14. Trevor Siemian

15. Marcus Mariota

16. Jacoby Brissett

17. Brian Hoyer

18. Josh McCown

19. Jared Goff

20. Case Keenum

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 10th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Week 5 Sunday's Heroes

Not-the-Usual Suspects 

It's been a bit of an off year for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, but it was nice to see him among the weekly passing leaders. This week comes just 7 days after a strong performance in Week 4. Against the Giants on Sunday Rivers passed for only 258 yards (3rd best passing yard total this season), but he added three touchdowns. Although it was not his best passing day (only 21 of 44 passing) it was his day in fantasy (20.82 fantasy points). The Chargers signal caller is tough and gritty and as we saw on Sunday very capable. He's got the weapons, so there will be better passing days and more scoring on Sundays like this ahead. Rivers, currently the No.11 fantasy QB is making his case as a fantasy QB1.

After watching the Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz light up the Cardinals secondary, can anyone argue how good this kid has become and leap he's taken from his first year. Wentz finished Sunday completing 70 percent of his passes for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns. On the year the Eagles 2nd year quarterback has 10 passing touchdowns and is averaging 272 yards passing per game. He's the No.6 fantasy QB and a legitimate QB1 that needs to be started every Sunday.

It was not a quiet return on Sunday for running back Marlon Mack. The Colts rookie ball carrier was returning from injury after missing action in week 4. Mack was the No.8 fantasy RB for week 5, finishing his day with 91 yards rushing on 9 carries and adding a touchdown. The performance was enough for his head coach to acknowledge that he's earned a bigger role in the offense, putting Mack in play as a weekly flex.

In Green bay the Packers may have just found their next feature back in rookie Aaron Jones. Against the Cowboys on Sunday Jones was solid with 125 rushing yards on 19 carries (6.5 yards per carry average) and a rushing touchdown. Jones found a way onto the field in Week with Ty Montgomery going down, but his 32 carries for 174 yards rushing have earned his way to staying. Even when Montgomery returns Jones is going to be a factor. But while Montgomery is out, Jones has back-end RB2 value.

With his quarterback quickly rising up the fantasy ranks, Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor has quietly moved up the fantasy tree himself. On Sunday Agholor finished the day with 4 grabs for 93 yards and a score, good enough to push his season totals to 16/266/3. Agholor has been one of the more efficient receivers in the NFL and is currently the No.24 fantasy WR; he should be considered a starter in most formats.

With Greg Olsen on the shelf for the next six weeks, tight end Ed Dickson has emerged as a reliable weapon in Carolina. On Sunday Dickson was huge with 5 catches for 175 yards. It was his second consecutive game with at least three catches and 60 receiving yards. With only a total of 9 targets over the past two weeks, it may be too early to be pushing for Dickson as a reliable TE1. But if he can string his third game in row with good numbers, he's going to get the call.

The second best fantasy tight end (in PPR) on Sunday was the Niners rookie George Kittle. The rookie pass catcher is quickly making an impression in the fantasy world. On Sunday he posted a stat line of 7/78/1, good enough to elevate him to the No.16 fantasy tight end spot after 5 weeks. It was a breakout game for Kittle, but not necessarily a breakthrough. We'll need a larger sample size before we can trust George as a weekly play.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Week 4 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions: By the Numbers)

Time to check out our report card for last week and I have to tell you, it feels like getting a test back that you already know you didn’t do well. So let’s take a look. At quarterback we tanked with our Rivers picked. Apparently the Chargers move from San Diego to Los Angeles didn’t change a whole lot of things; three picks, no touchdowns

Who would’ve thought the Saints defense would show up in week 3 and on the road nonetheless. Running back Jonathan Stewart was basically held in check limited to just 61 total yards. Our receiver DeAndre Hopkins was busy last Sunday with 7 catches, but finishing as the No.30 fantasy WR (PPR) is not good enough. Tight end Jared Cook wasn’t far off the mark with 43 yards and score, finishing as the No.8 fantasy TE (PPR) last week. Running back Lamar Miller, our flex fared no better than Stewart, finishing with just 63 total yards. And for good measure the Steelers defense ranked 13th in fantasy last week.

Overall Grade D-

There’s no question it was a rough week, but maybe we can bounce back in a big way in Week 4;

Quarterback

It’s not been a good season thus far for picks, but I’m a gambler and I’ll play every time. This week I am riding with the rookie arm of Deshaun Watson. Ever since his debut as the starter in week 2 on Thursday night, I’ve been impressed. He had Mike Vick moves then and last week showed some grit standing toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and the Patriots. He’s still a rookie and going to make mistakes, but I love his upside when you add in his running skills and Bill O’Brien’s play-calling. This week he’ll have more success against the Titans; 20 0f 30 passing, 185 yards passing, 1 TD pass, 1 Int, 45 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD.

Running Back

If I have any real bold picks here, this one will be the boldest of the bunch. This will be Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers last dance in the spotlight (start Doug Martin returns next week) and after a less than dismal week 3 finishing with just 15 yards rushing on 5 carries he’s going to be looking to bounce back in a big way. Last week was not a good week in general for the entire offense, but fortunately for Rodgers and company the Giants roll into town. Through 3 weeks, the G-men have not been good against the run. Let’s look at the numbers; ranked last against the run, allow 4.5 yards per carry, and allow 10th most fantasy points to opposing runners. The Bucs have enough weapons to keep the G-men from stacking the box; 75 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and a score.

Wide Receiver

Bold, maybe not, but playing the numbers yes. Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry was heavily targeted back in week two (15 targets) and followed that performance with 11 more last Sunday. His busy Sundays have yet to produce a lot of yards, 19 receptions for just 126 yards. So I am just playing the numbers on this one, Landry is getting opportunities and his week 4 matchup looks like a good one against the Saints (ranked 31st against the pass). It will be another busy Sunday for Landry; 8 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight End

I’m not going to mince words here with my week 4 tight end pick. What’s the saying, hard to keep a big man down or something like that? At 6’5” Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is nearly larger than life and after a hugely disappointing week 3 (just one catch), he’s bouncing back this week. You can count on Andy Reid making sure of that. It’s a great matchup against a Redskins defense that struggles against opposing tight ends; 7 catches, 75 yards receiving, a touchdown.

Flex

Over the past two weeks the Redskins rising star ball carrier Chris Thompson has been on a roll. I am a believer in the third time’s a charm. Thompson is electric in space, has great hands, and I believe Jay Gruden will game play to get the rock to him on Monday night. He’s my flex this week; 35 rushing yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, and a score.

Defense: And once again we are playing a team defense this week, since we love DFS. This week I am streaming the Jaguars defense. I am not expecting a repeat of last week’s domination, especially since entering this matchup, the Jets offense is coming off a good showing. The Jets are home this Sunday, so I’d expect them to keep some of that momentum this week. I am playing the numbers here and just like the Jags defense (the No.3 overall defense, number one in sacks-13, 2nd in turnover differential) too much to think McCown and company will be able to generate a lot of yards and points.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Week 3 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So a quick look back at Week 2; we didn’t do too bad. I’m never going to jump through hoops or bury my head in the sand, because I know this is not an exact science. But I will admit, it always feels good to get some call right; last week quarterback Jameis Winston wasn’t brilliant, but he didn’t hurt your lineup either.

You’ll notice I always favor my scoring takes and breakdown toward PPR (love this format), so on that note, running back Melvin Gordon (No.8 RB last week), wide receiver Mike Evans (No.6 WR last week), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (No.3 TE last week) all scored very well. In the flex spot, I whiffed with Larry Fitzgerald; 6 targets for 3 receptions and 21 yards (finished outside the Top-50).

You win some, you lose some, let’s see how we do in week 3. Here are my picks for Week 3;

Quarterback

I’m not a Chargers fan by any mean, but I love Philip Rivers grit. The kid is tough as nails and in his 14th season he can still sling it all over the yard. He’s home this week and gets a favorable matchup against a leaky Chiefs secondary that is ranked 29th (before the Thursday Night game) against the pass. Rivers have plenty of weapons and will need to utilize all in what figures to be a shootout. I expect a big day for Rivers; 330 yards passing, 3 touchdowns and a pick.

Running Back

In my backfield this week I’ll be lining up the Panthers Jonathan Stewart. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s been steady currently the No. 26 fantasy RB. He’s a worthy of a flex play, but this week against a soft Saints defense he could put up Top-15 fantasy numbers. Saints do a poor job versus the run ranked 24th, so I expect the Panthers to lean on the ground game. With 33 carries in two games thus far, I expect Stewart to lead the ground charge; 20 carries, 105 rushing yards, 2 catches, 15 receiving yards, and a rushing touchdown.

Wide Receiver

This week I am lining up out wide the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Sure the Patriots know that Hopkins is the only real receiving threat the Texans have, but through two weeks quarterback Deshaun Watson has been able to pepper his favorite target with a heavy diet. Through two weeks Hopkins has been targeted 29 times (leads all receivers) and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. He’s sure to see at least 10 targets on Sunday and the Patriots secondary is not good enough to shut him down. I’d look for a modest line of 7 receptions for 80 yards and a score.

Tight End

My tight end for week 3 is a bit of a risky play The Raiders Jared Cook has seen a steady diet of targets (11 total) in each of the first two weeks, but it has yet to convert into any real production. Cook has just 9 receptions for 81 yards in two games, good enough for the No.18 fantasy TE. This week I expect to see a significant rise in product against a Redskins defense that ranks 28th against the pass (before the Thursday Night game) and has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. This week Cook scores; 6 receptions, 65 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Flex

Going to reach a little, very little with this pick of running back Lamar Miller. The Patriots are not great against the run, currently ranked 26th and the Texans will have to shorten this one if they hope to keep it close. I am expecting the Texans game plan to be run, run, run and the beneficiary will be Miller. He has 40 touches in 2 games and could see a spike in touches on Sunday. I’m not expecting a big day, but a strong stat line of; 18 carries, 90 rushing yards, 3 catches, 20 receiving yards, and a score.

For those of us engaged in DFS or team defense leagues;

Defense; I am running with the Steelers this week. Looking at the numbers, the Bears struggle with keeping their quarterback upright and the Steelers bring pressure (9 sacks in 2 games). The Bears offense also ranks 20th in total offense, buried in the lower half of the league. The Steel Curtain should feast this Sunday.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 22nd 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

For those that may be interested, here’s one of my favorite line-ups for Sunday (Week 3) on DraftKings;

QB-Philip Rivers ($6,400): At this price, I believe Rivers is a great value and I happen to like his week 3 matchup very much as well. The Chiefs defense allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and with their offense putting up points on the Chargers 20th ranked defense that sits well with me. I expect to see Rivers slinging it all over the yard, just trying to keep up with Alex Smith the Sunshine Band.

RB-Lamar Miller ($5,000): Yes, that’s right Miller. Bill O’Brien and the Texans are going to have to shorten this game as much as possible, if they stand a chance to keep it competitive. Miller, the No.19 (PPR) fantasy running back has yet to exceed 20 carries in a game this season (his high is 18), but I expect he’s got a good shot at doing just that this Sunday against a Patriots defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Miller Gold has a nice ring, don’t you think?

RB-Jonathan Stewart ($4,700): Now here’s the bargain of the week, Stewart for $4,700 at the Saints. Through two weeks Stewart has carried the rock 33 times for 105 yards, not a great average. He’ll get a great shot at redemption and much better numbers this Sunday against a Saints defense that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry. The Saints defense has also allowed the 4th most fantasy points (27.00) to opposing running backs, which means both Panthers backs should be productive.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,200): This is the stack play with Keenan and Rivers, but could you blame me? His price is in line, especially following a week 2 with 10 targets for 9 receptions and 100 yards receiving. Allen is consistent and unquestionably Rivers favorite. You should be able to count on another 8-10 targets on Sunday against a Chiefs secondary that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers

WR-Jermaine Kearse ($4,600): Another bargain, with a little risk. But at his price it’s hard to pass on Kearse. Through two games he’s been the most reliable and productive receiver on the field for the Jets. I expect to see his number continue to be called and against a shaky Dolphins secondary he should have lots of success.

WR-Adam Thielen ($5,700): There’s likely no Sam Bradford this Sunday, he’s still dealing with a knee issue. As was the case last week, in the absence of Bradford, backup Case Keenum got the start. Keenum will likely start again and for Thielen owners that’s not all bad. Last week Thielen led the team in receptions (5), but for only 44 yards. Keenum started slow, but didn’t look all bad giving me the belief he may be serviceable this week and Thielen might be playable. At his price and going up against a Buccaneers secondary that allowed over 200 yards to wide receivers last week, you have to take a shot here with Thielen.

TE-Travis Kelce ($6,000): In two games Kelce has been greatly involved in the Chiefs passing game with 17 targets producing a line of 13/143/1. He’s the No.2 (PPR) fantasy tight end and coming off a strong week 2 performance. The way Andy Reid has been utilizing his big tight end through two weeks, the Chargers defense is going to have a tough time handling. And now Kelce has a nice compliment of weapons around him on the field to draw attention away, he should have another busy afternoon on Sunday

Flex-Ty Montgomery ($6,900): With bargain runners I have slotted, I was able to go a little higher with my flex and what a deal! Montgomery has seen plenty of work through two weeks and even if they dial it back a bit, he’ll still see plenty of touches this Sunday against the Bengals. Montgomery is No.4 (PPR) fantasy running back averaging 19.5 touches per game. Expect his workload to remain in line this week with the prospect of Randall Cobb out and Jordy Nelson possibly being slowed with a bruised quad.

D/ST-Steelers ($3,400): Playing by the numbers here. Steelers are well priced and the Bears offense has not played well. The Bears O-line has allowed only 5 sacks, but they have allowed the quarterback to take a ton of hits (18) in two games. And what do the Steelers do well; 9 sacks (ranked 3rd) and hit the quarterback 16 times this season (tied for 2nd most).

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAIVD'S DAILY DIGEST

September 13th 2017

Wednesday afternoon Edition

My Week 2 QB Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Matt Ryan

5. Derek Carr

6. Jameis Winston

7. Marcus Mariota

8. Russell Wilson

9. Matthew Stafford

10. Philip Rivers

11. Cam Newton

12. Alex Smith

13. Sam Bradford

14. Carson Wentz

15. Tyrod Taylor

16. Ben Roethlisberger

17. Kirk Cousins

18. Dak Prescott

19. Carson Palmer

20. Jared Goff

Here are my rankings for Week 2 and of course my top 5 for looks pretty standard; Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Ryan. Packers and Falcons matchup should produce a lot of points as well as the Patriots at Saints.

I’ve moved Stafford up this week, but only to 9 with a road matchup Monday night against the Giants (ranked 20th against pass).

I’ve also moved Philip Rivers into the top 10 (at the number 10 spot). He had a tough road matchup in week 1 against the Broncos, but he’s at home this week against the Dolphins and has too many weapons to be held in check.

I moved the Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger down to 16 with a very tough matchup against a solid Vikings defense. I’m not expecting great numbers from Big Ben, but he’s at home this week and has a lot of weapons himself; would not be surprised if he finished near Top-10.

Lastly one notable ranking, I’ve shown Rams quarterback Jared Goff a little love after a great week 1 start. The Redskins secondary had a lot of holes last week against the Eagles and Goff may be able to take advantage with (Robert) Woods, (Sammy) Watkins, and the kid (rookie Cooper Kupp).

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega