FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 22nd, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

Championship Weekend

Aaron Rodgers Set For A Huge Sunday
…no other quarterback has been playing near as well as the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers. He has been simply brilliant on the gridiron over the past month. The Bears have a very fast and swarming defense and will make yards on the ground difficult. The Packers and Bears are no strangers to one another (old rivalry in the league), so it will be no surprise to see the Packers stay with what works.

With one of the leagues’ elite passers, offensive coordinator Joe Philbin likes to use a lot of multiple receiver sets, including four and five receiver formations. The Bears ranked 20th against the pass this season and will face a daunting task of trying to slowdown Rodgers and his Cheeseheads (receivers). The Bears have managed to play Rodgers well this season in two previous meetings, but the third time could be the charm.

Rodgers has six touchdowns this postseason and is completing nearly 80 percent of his throws (49 of 63). He is averaging almost 300 yards passing per game over the past month and has only thrown one interception in his last four starts (128 passes). Even with a little breeze on Sunday, Rodgers has plenty arm to be more than effective against the Bears.
(My thoughts; 25 of 35 passing, 285 yards passing, two touchdown)

James Starks Could Find Paydirt Against the Bears
The Bears boast a formidable run defense ranked 2nd in the league and on Sunday figure to create a lot of problems for rookie running back James Starks to find any space. In their last meeting Starks carried the ball just five times for 20 yards. He’ll get a few more chances this Sunday in the NFC Championsip, but could really struggle to find much more yards.

The Packers offense may not need a whole lot of production out of their backfield on Sunday; they like to throw the ball and will win or lose through the air. Even with the focus on an aerial assault Starks could see some production in short-yardage in the red-zone. The Packers will move the ball against the Bears 9th ranked (overall) defense on Sunday and could set up a few goal-line carries for Starks; he should be able to hit paydirt once.
(My thoughts; 12 carries, 45 yards, one touchdown)

Braylon Edwards Could Be Very Effective On Sunday
The Steelers have an awesome pass rush and will likely be in the face of Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez much of the afternoon on Sunday, but when they aren’t Sanchez could have some success finding wide receiver Braylon Edwards.

The Jets receiver is a large target and could give the Steelers undersized secondary lots of problems; in their first meeting Edwards snagged 8 balls for 100 yards. If the Steelers run defense is able to shut down the Jets ground game, Edwards could become even more of a factor in the pass game.
(My thoughts; 5 catches, 85 yards, one touchdown)

Steelers Defense is Primed to Stall Jets
This game will feature two of the league’s best defenses, but it may be just one that dominates on Sunday. In their earlier meeting this season the Steelers pass rush was held in check (just one sack), but I would expect head Coach Mike Tomlin to turn his dogs loose on Sunday.

With 13 sacks and 8 takeways in their last three games the Steel Curtain looks every bit ready to take the field and dominate. This could be the final episode for Head Coach Rex Ryan and his Jets and on filled with many hardknocks.
(My thoughts; four sacks, two interceptions, two forced fumbles)

Just my take

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY FANTASY WATCH

January 21st, 2011, Friday

Friday Fantasy Watch

Matt Forte: Running For Tough Yards

The Packers don’t boast a formidable run defense (ranked 18th in the league) and in their last meeting with the Bears running back Matt Forte was able shuttle his way through the defense for 91 yards. Even if this matchup turns into a shootout Forte still figures prominent in the Bears attack.

In his last three games Forte is averaging over 150 yards of offense, including 15 receptions and 56 yards receiving per game. Forte caught 8 passes in their last meeting and could be a key element in the pass game for Cutler as he will likely be facing some tremendous pressure from the Packers pass rush and 5th ranked pass defense.

Sunday’s projections against the Packers.
(15 carries, 60 yards rushing, 5 catches, 50 yards receiving, one touchdowns)

Jordy Nelson: Could Be A Big Weapon on Sunday

The Packers are deep at the wide out position and one of their young stars is Jordy Nelson. He played a significant number of snaps last week for the Packers and started the game as the number three receiver.

The Packers ran a lot of their “Bone” formation with Nelson on the field; he’s listed as the number four receiver, but see’s almost as much time on the field any of the other receivers. In the pass-friendly offense of Green Bay Nelson is among the favorites to produce.

Sunday’s projections against the Bears.
(6 catches, 65 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Heath Miller: Could Be Big Ben’s Safety Net

The Steeler’s wide receivers are going to have their hands full trying to shake off the Jets corners, but tight Heath Miller could have an easy time of it matching up with safeties and linebackers. Last week Big Ben did not hesitate to go to his big target over the middle connecting on five throws, including a touchdown.

In their first meeting with the Jets Miller did not play, but his back-up Matt Spaeth did and he was effective catching three passes for 27 yards and a score. Miller has a much better rapport with Roethlisberger and could be much more effective on Sunday.

Sunday’s projections against the Jets.
(4 catches, 55 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Mark Sanchez: No Snow, but Cold Steel in the Forecast

The stars don’t seem to be aligning quite all in place for Sanchez to enjoy a Cinderella ending on Sunday with the league’s best pass rush up next. There’s no question that he and the Jets have managed to clear some very tough hurdles, but Sunday’s could be the size of a steel mountain.

Sanchez played well in their first meeting and he may play well on Sunday, but he’s going to be in a pressure cooker like no other. In their last three games the Steelers defense has registered 13 sacks and 8 takeaways. The Steel Curtain defense is as hot as the Packers offense right now and figures to present a lot of problems for Sanchez.

Sunday’s projections against the Steelers.
(16 of 35 passing, 190 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, sacked four times)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY FANTASY

January 20th, 2011 Thursday

My Weekly Fantasy

Championship Week

Sunday’s Fantasy Lineup

Some quick notes about Sunday’s lineup…..

My Quarterback:

Well Sunday’s pick should be pretty simple; no quarterback has played nearly as well as the Packers Aaron Rodgers over the past month. Rodgers is on fire this post season with six touchdowns in two games and no interceptions; he is also completing 78 percent of his passes and currently owns a 134.5 passer rating. He is a no-brainer start this weekend, but if for any reason you are not able to ride the strong-arm of Rodgers, Big Ben (Roethlisberger) could be a good play.

At home on Sunday Roethlisberger will be looking to continue his own hot hand. In his last five starts Big Ben has not thrown a pick and has six touchdown passes, including two last Sunday against the Ravens. In his previous matchup against the Jets earlier this season (Week 15) Roethlisberger passed 264 yards with a touchdown; he also scrambled for another 25 yards. With the Jets tough run defense (3rd in the NFL), Big Ben will be forced to make some plays in the pass game.

My Running backs:

This happens to be a very rough week for running backs with the number one, two, and three ranked run defenses playing, but if you are looking for some production you could still see plenty. The Packers boast the number 18th ranked run defense making Bears running back Matt Forte an appealing option. Forte has been running the ball particularly well the past month and he’s also become a regular option in the pass game with 15 receptions in his last three games; he’s also averaging over 150 yards of offense.

The Jets don’t figure to run through the Steel Curtain on Sunday, as no runner was able to top the century mark this season against their formidable ground stoppers, but the shifty LT was able to squeak out 49 yards on 11 carries back in week 15. Those aren’t great numbers, but LT could figure significantly in the pass game matching up against the Steelers linebackers and Dick LeBeau’s blitz calling tendencies.

Another back worth taking a hard look at this week would be the Packers rookie James Stark. The Bears have the 2nd best run defense in the league, but they will have their hands full keeping Rodgers and the Packers passing game out of the red-zone; Starks may not see many yards, but could pick up an easy score or two.

My Wide Receivers:

This could be a huge weekend for receivers with very few yards being shed on the ground. The Packers-Bears matchup could be the game with the most fireworks with two gunslingers, Rodgers and Cutler under center. If these two can’t grind out any yards on the ground, you know neither will be shy about putting the ball in the air. Names like Jennings and Driver may call out to fantasy ears, but on Sunday I will roll the dice with a couple of lesser known names like Jordy Nelson and James Jones. The Bears are not deep in the secondary and they just won’t be able to cover everyone; it’ll be pick your poison (they will try and take away Jennings). If Cutler is forced into a shootout, he will be looking downfield a lot; wide receiver Johnny Knox could come up big with several catches over the middle.

In the Jets-Steelers matchup, both teams combined could struggle to reach 100-yards, but their secondaries could be susceptible to a number of big plays. It appears the Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards has really improved his hands this season and with his big size, he’s a safe bet to pull down a few balls on Sunday. With the Ravens really taking away Steeler’s wide receiver Mike Wallace, Big Ben found a new target that could be an effective play on Sunday as well, rookie Emmanuel Sanders (he could be risky, so consider others first).

My Tight End:

Last week to many people’s surprise the under-used Greg Olsen emerged from his hiatus with several big catches to lead the Bears passing attack; he caught three balls for 113 yards and a score. With the Packers tough corners working to take away the deep ball, Olsen could see plenty of work again down the seam early. Olsen may not tally nearly as many yards this week, but he could see a few more throws.

In the AFC contest, my favorite there is not the trusty Dustin Keller who went into hibernation most the regular season, but the Steelers Heath Miller. The Jets corners will be pre-occupied with the Wallace and Ward and Big Ben knows how to use his tight end; last week Miller caught five passes for 39 yards and a score.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 19th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

GREG JENNINGS HAS BUSY SUNDAY AGAINST FALCONS
The Falcons had all they could handle and much more from the Packers passing attack on Saturday night; wide receiver Greg Jennings had little trouble finding space and getting open. Jennings finished the evening with a game high eight receptions and 101 yards to lead the Packers offense. In two meetings against the Bears this season Jennings has 6 catches for 115 yards with a touchdown; in the first meeting at Soldier Field he caught just two balls for 18 yards, but one was for a score.
My Fantasy Read:
The Packer’s playmaking receiver may not have it that easy on Sunday against the Bears at Soldier Field. Charles Tillman, who did a pretty good job on Mike Williams of Seattle on Sunday, will likely draw the assignment of covering Jennings. With all of the weapons Rodgers has at his disposal, if the Bears run help over the top of Jennings, he won’t be shy about looking elsewhere. Jennings could have a quiet afternoon. Tough to sit him, but may not have a productive day.

MARK SANCHEZ HAS HIS BIGGEST GAME AGAINST PATRIOTS
The Jets 2nd year quarterback stepped up his game on Sunday against the Patriots and played anything but like a young quarterback playing in the biggest game of his career (as Head Coach Rex Ryan described it). Sanchez was near flawless completing 16 of 25 passes for 194 yards in the air with three touchdowns. He would also finish with a 127.3 passer rating; the best of his career.
My Fantasy Read:
Sanchez played a great game on Sunday against the Patriots, and from one big game to the next (against the Steelers) his matchup this coming Sunday against the Steel Curtain could come down to how well one player performs; Sanchez. The Patriots don’t have a defense built anything like what the Steelers will be throwing at Sanchez on Sunday; welcome to Blitz-burgh and what will likely be a long day in the cold. Sit him.

JAY CUTLER LOOKS READY FOR PRIMETIME
The Bears will be hosting the NFC Championship for the first time since the 2006 season when they defeated the New Orleans Saints. The reason they have made it this far has been by no accident. Without question their improved defense has played a big part, but no less has been the play of quarterback Jay Cutler (23 touchdowns, 3,274 yards passing). The Bears strong-armed thrower was a big part of their win on Sunday as well with two touchdown throws and two touchdowns runs. The win was his first post season win of his career and surely won’t be his last.
My Fantasy Read:
One of the attractive qualities of having Cutler under center in the windy city is his big arm. He had no problem with the elements completing 15 of 28 passes for 274 yards against the Seahawks, but this Sunday he could have all kinds of problems with the Packers pass rush. The Cheeseheads will be in town this weekend and Cutler can expect a lot of pressure to follow. The last time these two teams met Cutler was dropped six times and threw two picks; something he will more than likely face and have to deal with again. Hard to sit him, but could be a rough day.

AARON RODGERS LOOKS DAM GOOD
The Packers are riding a colossal wave of confidence and why shouldn’t they, they have quarterback Aaron Rodgers. On Saturday against his latest victim Rodgers tossed three more touchdowns and passed for 366 yards completing 31 of 36 throws. It was Rodgers second straight road win and fourth straight overall. His wins have come against the Giants, Bears, Eagles, and now Falcons. Rodgers and company look dam good and pretty unstoppable at the moment.
My Fantasy Read:
Rodgers has been on fire his last four starts throwing 11 touchdowns with just one pick and passing for 294 yards per game. The Bears are an 11-5 team with a pretty good defense, but as well as Rodgers is playing there may be no answer to stop him. Play him.

Don’t fall asleep with this Sunday Sleeper….

Nelson is a Major Player in Big Win
The Packers have a complete host of weapons that quarterback Aaron Rodgers can go to anytime and on Saturday night the Falcons met one they might not have been much familiar with; wide receiver Jordy Nelson. It’s tough to become relevant playing behind starters Greg Jennings, 12-year veteran Donald Driver, and the speedy James Jones, but after Saturday’s performance (8 catches, 79 yards, and a touchdown) Nelson may have just stepped out from everyone’s shadow.

For folks in Green Bay, Nelson is no surprise; this season he caught 45 passes for 582 yards (best of any 4th receiver spot and most thirds in the league). On Saturday against Atlanta he also saw a great deal of snaps as the lone receiver (probably because he is a very good blocker-Ed McCaffrey style). Jennings and Driver will draw plenty of attention in the passing game on Sunday (as will Jones), but the Bears secondary better forget about Nelson. Play him.