Saturday Edition
December 1st, 2012
Suicide Fantasy Football
Week 13
What a mess it was in my backfield last week with running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Ronnie Hillman. Dwyer becomes part of the fumbling parade and Hillman hardly makes it off the sideline, just three carries for 9 yards.
Despite the disparity at the running back position my week 12 lineup survived with some solid play at the wide receiver position (Dez Bryant-35.10 points, Justin Blackman-18.40 points) as well as a few other spots. Tight end Jacob Tamme chipped in with 14.80 points (4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 touchdown) and the Rams defense was solid with 18 points (2 sacks, 4 interceptions).
All in all my picks last week move my team up the charts and we are back in the top twenty this week at 19. With the season now running out of weeks (just four left) it’s time to make a big push up the charts.
Here’s my week 13 picks;
My Line-up
Quarterback:
The Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been terrific in 2012, but funny his name has hardly made too many waves in some fantasy circles. Brady has thrown for 3,299 yards (5th in the NFL) this season and tossed 24 touchdowns (4th) to just three interceptions. Brady once again ranks at the top with the best passers in the league and with a matchup this Sunday against the Dolphins 26th ranked pass defense he looks to only improve his incredible numbers. The Dolphins defense allows the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, something that will surely rise after Sunday.
Running Backs:
No repeat of week 12 here with Eagles running back Bryce Brown. With LeSean McCoy still laid up, Brown will get the start on Sunday against the Cowboys 13th ranked run defense. Last Monday night Brown tore through the Panthers run defense for 178 yards, something that will be difficult to repeat, but with Mike Vick still on the sidelines the Eagles will once again lean on the ground game. Brown is a safe start this week for my lineup and a nice flex option or low value RB2 against the Cowboys who allow the 16th most fantasy points to running backs.
My other ball carrier this week is the Giants Ahmad Bradshaw and this start could not come at a better time. Bradshaw appears to be the healthiest he’s been all season and with Andre Brown on IR Bradshaw is likely to see extra duties in the red zone. This week Bradshaw faces the Redskins 3rd ranked run defense, a tough matchup, but Bradshaw will contribute on the ground and in the air (61 receiving yards last week); a dual threat Bradshaw is favorable flex.
Wide Receivers:
It’s time to ride the hot hands of Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts and why not, this week he’s facing the Bills 18th ranked pass defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Shorts is riding a three game scoring streak and will have an excellent shot at extending to four against the secondary that has 14 touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
My other wide out this week is Lions wide receiver Ryan Broyles. He had a hot hand last week playing in the shadow of Megatron; Broyles finished last Thursday’s game with six catches for 126 yards. The rookie receiver posted nice numbers that may be difficult to duplicate, but with Megatron on the other side drawing much attention, Broyles figures to see plenty of action (12 targets last week). The Lions face the Colts this week meaning Broyles will have a shot at the Indy’s 19th ranked pass defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to receivers. Megatron figures to take advantage on Sunday, but look for Broyles to grab his share as a low value WR3 or flex this week.
Tight End:
The Giants meet the Redskins on Monday and tight end Martellus Bennett is hoping to have a repeat performance to his week 7 showing (against the Redskins). Bennett has been up and down this season, but could figure prominently against the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends. Bennett is low end TE1 in deeper formats this week.
Place Kicker:
This is always a position that is a tough read most of the time, but this week I will play the odds and roll with the Cowboys place kicker Dan Bailey. Playing at home this week, the Cowboys have not necessarily enjoyed the sweet taste of home cooking, so struggles in the red zone could arise. The Cowboys will face a struggling Eagles team that could give up plenty of yards, but make finding the end zone troublesome; I like Bailey to chip in a handful on Sunday.
Team Defense:
With the offense having to settle for kicks, the Cowboys defense is going to have to come up big on Sunday. This should be something easier done than usual with the Eagles coming to town less quarterback Michael Vick, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson. I am looking for the Cowboys D to pin it’s ear back and make plenty of plays on Sunday against an Eagles offense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
These are my picks for week 13.
By David Ortega
Friday Edition
November 30th, 2012
FSH Fantasy Five
Week 13 Fantasy Picks (all positions)
For a lot of us fantasy fanatics, this is the final week of our regular season as we get ready to enter our postseason. With that said some of us may be tuning up our lineup as we prepare for our post season run, others may be jockeying for position, then there are those of us that are still looking from the outside in. Whether it’s make or break or just looking to improve your roster, week 13 can still offer some immediate help from some (not-so) hidden gems;
Week 13 fantasy help;
Jonathan Dwyer, RB
The Steelers running back Jonathan Dwyer has been on and off the radar much of the season, due to injuries and the over-crowding in the backfield. It finally sounds like head coach Mike Tomlin is going to commit to one back (Dwyer)and give him an honest shake at succeeding as the team’s lead ball carrier. When Dwyer has been featured he’s been highly successful and when’s he’s been in the mix he’s been the most effective ball carrier for the Black n Yella. The Steelers meet the Ravens (ranked 26th against the run) this Sunday in what appears to be an ideal match up for the start of the Dwyer Era in the Steel Town.
Ryan Broyles, WR
The Lions have been putting the ball up in the air at a rapid pace and with Calvin Johnson coming on like Batman, rookie wide receiver Ryan Broyles looks poised to step in as Megatron’s sidekick; “The Boy Wonder.” In his first NFL start last Thursday Broyles was targeted 12 times and turned in a solid 6-catch and 126 yards receiving performance. Broyles is quickly showing a great rapport with his quarterback and clearly Stafford has great confidence in his newest weapons. As long as he continues to start opposite Johnson, look for Broyles to continue his strong showing; he’s a solid flex going forward.
Bryce Brown, RB
The Eagles season is now over and pride is all they have left to play for; maybe spoiler too. With the season in shambles there’s no need to rush back running back LeSean McCoy who has still yet to be cleared from his concussion suffered in week 11. Back up running back Bryce Brown (178 yards rushing against the Panthers) did a more than admirable job last Monday night starting in place of the injured McCoy and will undoubtedly start again this Sunday. While McCoy is out for at least another week, Brown looks to be hot handcuff and worthy start this week facing the Cowboys 13th ranked run defense; ride him while you can.
Knowshon Moreno, RB
The Broncos tripped up most of the fantasy world last week turning to their rarely used prior to Sunday veteran running back Knowshon Moreno. While most of us thought it would rookie running back Ronnie Hillman getting the call, last Sunday against the Chiefs, it was all Moreno finishing the game with 85 yards on the ground. Moreno has the starting gig now and will most likely carry the brunt of the load going forward. This week could be a rough go of it for the Bronco’s ball carrier facing the league’s number one run defense (Buccaneers), but Moreno will be a heavy fantasy favorite with great matchups from week 14-16 against the Raiders (24th vs run), the Ravens (23rd), and the Browns (21st).
Justin Blackmon, WR
The Jaguars rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon had not been much of a fantasy factor leading into week 11, but since quarterback Chad Henne took over for the injured Blaine Gabbert his line has been impressive; 12 receptions, 298 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns. He and Henne definitely appear to be on the same page and with favorable matchups this Sunday (against the Bills) and in the coming weeks, Blackmon is a hot grab off the waiver line (if you can get him). He looks to be a nice WR3 or flex going forward and could be just what doctor ordered this week; if you are in need of a big win to make it to the post season.
By David Ortega
Wednesday Edition
November 28th, 2012
David’s Daily Digest
Broyles Ready to Be Megatron’s Sidekick
The Lions rookie wide receiver Ryan Broyles is not built quite like Optimus Prime, but his play last Thursday (6 catches, 126 yards) in his first start has catapulted him to Decepticon status. Broyles is now implanted as the starter opposite of Calvin Johnson. On an offense that puts the ball up nearly 45 times per game, Broyles is sure to see his share of targets (12 targets in week 12). As long as he continues to start, Broyles is in line to see enough targets to remain a low-end WR3 or strong flex option.
Jennings to Play Sunday Against Vikings
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings has finally returned to practice in full this week and will play Sunday. Jennings has slowly been working his way back and despite the recent success of his peers (Nelson & Cobb) in his absence, he should have little trouble getting back in sync with his quarterback. Don’t look for Jennings to fly out of the gate like a gang-buster in his first game back, but don’t be surprised to see him get back into the act quickly. Coming off a seven game lay-off there likely to be some rust so his involvement and productivity will be gradual; Jennings is likely a safe flex option at best this week.
Dez on the Rise with Austin Slowed
The Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has emerged as a lethal weapon in the Cowboys passing attack this season. Through 11 games Bryant has 65 receptions for 880 yards and six touchdowns. Bryant is also riding a three-game touchdown streak. With Miles Austin limited this week and trying to return from the hip flexor he suffered last Sunday, expect Bryant to continue his hot hand; he’s a must start against the Eagles 15th ranked pass defense that has allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season.
Alexander Primed to Lead the Charge
The Chargers wide receiver Danario Alexander is averaging 5 catches and better than 90 yards per game since becoming a starter in San Diego. Alexander is also averaging almost nine targets (8.6) per game in his last three and is quarterback Philip Rivers’ number one receiver. Look for Alexander’s numbers to continue to rise in the coming weeks making him a solid WR3 today and chart climber going forward into the fantasy playoffs.
These are just a few of my takes on some of the Good-Hands people for week 13.
By David Ortega
Tuesday Edition
November 27th, 2012
David’s Daily Digest
Dwyer to Get the Call in Crowded Backfield
The Steelers may have too many options in the backfield with four healthy running backs; Dwyer, Mendenhall, Redman, and Rainey. Last Sunday proved to be a golden opportunity for one of them to separate himself from the pack, but with 6 fumbles between the four that was hardly the case. Nonetheless the word quickly circulating out of the Steel town is running back Jonathan Dwyer appears to be the favorite and will be the starter on Sunday. Dwyer has been the more effective when given the opportunity and if the rumors are true, look for Dwyer to start and receive the lions’ share of carries on Sunday against Ravens 26th ranked run defense. Dwyer is a safe low value RB2 this week.
McFadden Hopeful to Return to Practice
Running back Darren McFadden has been sidelined for several weeks and has yet to return to practice, but according to head coach Dennis Allen he is hopeful his talented ball carrier can return this week. This is definitely a situation worth monitoring. If McFadden can return to practice this week, check for updates later in the week. If he’s healthy enough to play he could be a nice start this week with the Brown’s 19th ranked run defense coming to town.
Bush A Good Matchup for the Seahawks Game
The Bears running back Michael Bush is built for between the tackles. With starter Matt Forte (ankle) questionable for Sunday’s meeting against the Seahawks, Bush could be a good match up and fantasy play this week. Bush is a no non-sense runner; he’s not going to bounce it outside, but rather take it up the middle and grab what he can. The Seahawks are ranked 12th against the run, so they will likely limit the Bears chances, but Bush will undoubtedly get any red-zone and goal line carries. If you have better options go another direction, but if you are desperate Bush can offer some value (more if Forte sits).
Jackson Shut Down for the Remainder of the Season
The Eagles placed wide receiver DeSean Jackson (rib injury) on the injured reserve ending his season. Jackson started strong this season, but quickly faded into fantasy oblivion taking a nose dive in the last three weeks (just 8 total receptions for 76 yards). With Jackson OUT and questions at the quarterback spot (Foles or Vick), the receiving corp will become more of a committee with no clear cut go-to guy offering significant fantasy value. This is a situation to avoid.
By David Ortega
Monday Edition
November 26th, 2012
David's Daily Digest
Monday’s Fantasy Headlines
Fred Jackson To Take A Backseat
The Bills running back Fred Jackson who made his return to action on Sunday after missing a game because of the concussion he suffered in week 10, will take a back seat to the more explosive and quick CJ Spiller. Jackson should continue to see a steady share of snaps, but through 12 weeks of action Spiller has proven to be the more effective ground gainer and will continue to see a greater share of carries and touches. Jackson can still offer some (not much) as a flex option in deeper 14-16 team leagues.
Ahmad Bradshaw Likely To See Increased Duties
Against the Packers on Sunday night the Giants running back Andre Brown was lost for the remainder of the season with a broken fibula. With Brown out, running back Ahmad Bradshaw who finished with 119 total yards against the Packers, will likely see more touches including in the red zone. The increased work should make Bradshaw a solid play and a mid-value RB2 heading into the fantasy playoffs.
DeSean Jackson Continues to Struggle in 2012
The Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson has been nothing less than a big fantasy disappointment this season. In 11 games this season Jackson has scored just twice and recorded only two 100-yard receiving games. On Monday night Jackson exited early with an injury finishing the game with just one catch for 9 yards. It was the fourth time Jackson has posted three or fewer grabs in game and the sixth time he has had less than 65 yards receiving. Jackson will be questionable for next Sunday against the Cowboys and has fallen to a very shaky low value WR3.
Knowshon Moreno Appears To Be The Man
There was so much speculation last week surrounding the Broncos backfield with running back Willis McGahee going down, but after his performance on Sunday it looks like Knowshon Moreno (85 yards rushing, 26 yards receiving) has locked up the starting gig for now. Rookie running back Ronnie Hillman was expected to step into the starting role and handle much of the workload in the backfield, but obviously there were too many questions surrounding his pass protection skills. The Veteran Moreno was impressive on Sunday and now appears to be the main guy in the Broncos backfield.
Brandon Marshall Back To Form With His Starting QB
With quarterback Jay Cutler out last Monday night, Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall (81 receptions in 2012) was targeted just four times. With Cutler returning to action on Sunday, Marshall was targeted 17 times finishing with 12 receptions for 92 yards. Marshall has blossomed into an elite WR1 option this season reuniting with his old quarterback from his Denver days. As long as Cutler is under center and upright, Marshall remains a top-flight WR1 fantasy option especially in PPR leagues.
Danario Alexander Emerging As The Favorite in San Diego
Since his arrival wide receiver Danario Alexander has wasted little time making noise in the Chargers passing game. In his past three starts Alexander has been targeted 26 times posting a scoring line that includes; 17 receptions, 304 yards receiving and three scores. Alexander has emerged as one of quarterback Philip Rivers favorite targets and is a solid WR2 fantasy option going forward.
By David Ortega
Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012
Sunday Morning Gametime
The Falcons will have wide receiver Julio Jones (will start) today, but playing outdoor and a bad wheel (ankle) he could be a risky play. It’s tough to sit Jones with his tremendous upside and big play potential, so proceed with caution.
The Bills running back Fred Jackson is active and expected to play, but Spiller will get the start and should see the lions’ share of the carries today. Jackson is coming off a concussion and with Spiller being as effective as he has been (all season) it’s hard to imagine Jackson getting worked in too much today; Spiller is still the play in the Bills backfield.
Quarterback Jay Cutler is going to start, that’s good news for Brandon Marshall owners. Marshall is clearly Cutler’s favorite and go to receiver, so he’ll see plenty of work today. Marshall is a WR1 with Cutler in the game.
The Niners are going to roll with quarterback Colin Kaepernick. With Kaepernick’s mobility, he adds another dimension to the offense that could help open up things in the pass game. Tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Michael Crabtree would appear to be upgraded options with Kaepernick in the game.
The Steelers will be without wide receiver Antonio Brown today (ruled OUT). With quarterback Charlie Batch under center expect the Steelers to work the trenches with their ground game. No Brown, no effect, today will be all about the three-headed monster led by running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall.
Just a few notes for today’s games…
By David Ortega
Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012
The Four Horsemen
My week 12 fantasy picks…
Quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick)
There’s not a lot being said about the Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but going on the road to play the Colts, he’s got a nice matchup. Fitz will face the Colts 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns this season to just four picks. The Colts allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Don’t look for Ftiz to throw for a ton, since Spiller and Jackson should be able to carve into the Colts 21st ranked run defense, but the Bills quarterback should be better than effective in the red zone. He’s a good play today if you don’t have better options.
Running Back (CJ Spiller)
The Bills running back CJ Spiller is going to lose a few carries with the return of Fred Jackson today, but that won’t matter. Heading into today’s contest he’s averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and 14 touches per game. Given the fact Jackson is returning from injury (concussion), the Bills will lean on Spiller and he should deliver solid numbers today. Spiller faces the Colts 21st ranked run defense today that has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns and they allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs. Spiller is a must start and top 10 option today.
Wide Receiver (Michael Crabtree)
The Niners wide receiver Michael Crabtree has not had too many big games this season, but he has been on a roll of late finding the end zone in three straight. With the Saints coming to town, Crabtree will get his shot at one of the league’s worst secondary pass defenses; Saints are ranked 31st in the league and allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is likely no higher than a mid WR2 today, but he has a chance at a big game especially if Kaepernick (starting today) can be as effective as he was last Monday night.
Tight End (Brandon Myers, Oak)
The Raiders are on the road today and running into a hot Bengals team, winners of two straight and 59 points scored in their two wins. This could be one that the Raiders end up playing catch up; enter tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders are already heaving it up almost 50 times per game over their last three and Myeres is seeing an average of 10 targets per game. Myers is averaging 6.3 receptions, 57 yards, and a touchdown in his last three starts. In a game that is likely to see a lot of passing, Myers is a top 10 option this week and should deliver.
By David Ortega
