FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

August 24th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

Some Friday Foootball Fun

Week three of the preseason is under way and my first fantasy football draft of the season is less than a day away, so rather than regurgitating a bunch of known information (at least not tonight), how about we talk more specifically about the draft.

Although this first draft is in a custom league with a non-standard scoring format, a lot of the same fantasy football strategy principles still apply here. This league is what we call a quarterback league, but depth at all positions is still the key to winning. Let’s put it this way, the teams with Brees and Rodgers did not win the title.

I am not going to get heavily into my specific strategy or offer any confidential secrets that will guarantee fantasy success, but rather offer my thoughts on those players I will be looking for in this first draft and my subsequent drafts.

The Arms

Everyone already knows about Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, and I am seeing plenty of hype around the new boy from Detroit (Matthew Stafford), so unless I am drafting early in any leagues or looking for a quarterback with my first pick I probably won’t see any of these arms available past mid 2^nd round. Having said that, quarterbacks I like and will be looking at are Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Josh Freeman.

Each has shown the ability to be a big passer and have a big-time target to throw to this season (Andre Johnson, Stevie Johnson, and Vincent Jackson). Fitzpatrick and Freeman were down a bit in 2011 with too many turnovers, but they still finished in the top 13 for passing yards. Schaub was on his way to a big season before going down, I like his chances in 2012 to stay healthy and play big.

The Legs

The running backs at the top of the fantasy food chain will likely be the same familiar names from a year ago (Rice, Foster, and McCoy)and they will likely be sure to go early in most drafts. A few interesting names that I will be watching and targeting past the first round include Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Reggie Bush. These guys will be particularly effective in PPR leagues. All three are top 20 fantasy backs and should be right back in the mix again in 2012.

A couple of ground gainers that could scoop up some easy scores this season are (Broncos) Willis McGahee and (Patriots) Steven Ridley. First I like Ridley to win the job in New England and I think his explosiveness could lead to some big plays and big scores this season. In the Mile High city, I believe Manning’s presence is going to bring an up-tempo style to the offense and create more scoring opportunities for McGahee in Denver.

The Hands

Right now there is no receiver as good as Calvin Johnson, but there a several names I like and players I will be trying to grab in tomorrow’s draft. AJ Green just looks too good and appears ready to build off his outstanding rookie campaign. Like Green, Julio Jones in Atlanta looks ready to breakout big in his second year. If wide receiver Dez Bryant can stay healthy, his size and ability could lead to a huge 2012 season in Dallas. I have never been much of a fan of the offense in Oakland, but with OTAs and a full training camp under their belts, Darrius Heyward-Bey should rekindle some of the late season magic he found with quarterback Carson Palmer last season.

A quiet name I will be looking to add later in the draft are Steve Smith in St. Louis; he is quickly building a nice rapport with quarterback Sam Bradford and could be looking at a nice comeback with the Rams. A not-so-quiet name is Demaryius Thomas, He is another nice mid-rounds pick up that has great upside with a healthy Manning under center; his counter-part Eric Decker also has value should Thomas be taken.

One more name I will throw at there for thought; I like the arrival of Cedric Benson in Green Bay. Their offense has lacked consistency on the ground the past several seasons. Benson gives them a real banger and with the focus in the air, there’s no pressure on Ced. If he can leave his fumbling woes behind, he could be a real factor in fantasy this season.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

August 21st, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

Looking At the 2012 Fantasy Season

Previewing the Big Arms

With several of my own fantasy drafts approaching it’s time to start looking at this season’s studs and talking some serious fantasy football. And there’s no better place to start than right under center.

When we are talking about the quarterback spot, there are no better field generals than the Three Kings of the Gridiron; Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. These guys do it big and have been consistently over the past several seasons; Rodgers has averaged nearly 33 passing touchdowns per season since 2008, Brady has averaged over 34 touchdowns the past three seasons, and Brees has at least 33 passing touchdowns in each of his last four seasons, including 46 last year. Quite simply, these guys are better than good.

If these three are the Kings, than we have to anoint the Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford as one of the league’s top princes. He’s not quite at the elite level yet, but after his 5,000 yards in 2011 with 41 touchdowns he is very close. Eli Manning is another prince in the league flirty with the next level, but his touchdown-interception will need to improve a bit, before he can get real consideration.

Cam Newton and Michael Vick certainly deserve strong consideration as a starting fantasy quarterback, but with their reward and great mobility will come lots of risk. At least Cam has size, but even with his build you’d rather he use his arm more and legs less. Enough can’t be said about Vick when talking about protecting yourself. His mobility has been one of his greatest assets, but also one of his biggest nemeses; staying healthy will be his greatest task in 2012.

A couple of names that could emerge as solid fantasy starters will include Matt Schaub, who should bounce back nicely this season from his injuries of a year ago. Ben Roethlisberger is like Vick, he needs to stay healthy to pay-off for owners. If he can avoid the big hits, with studs like Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown to throw the ball deep to, Big Ben could have a solid 2012 campaign.

Peyton Manning is going to fall on most boards, but as a late QB1, he could prove to be a great value and steal in most drafts. He’s still got a little rust to shake off, but once the regular season gets going he’d going to find his old form; and the weather in Denver won’t make a difference.

Philip Rivers and Tony Romo may both fall a bit this season in fantasy drafts after the disappointing performances from their respective teams last season, but don’t be fooled. These two have plenty left in their tanks and are still surrounded with enough talent to finish as Top 10 fantasy quarterbacks.

On Your Radar 

We've heard the talk before in the past, but this could actually be the season we see the pay off with quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcon’s starter has some new toys and reliable weapons in his arsenal and could be in line for a big 2012 season.

A couple of names that could really breakout in 2012 with big seasons and peak into the Top 10 include; Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jay Cutler. I like Dalton, because with a great receiver like AJ Green (and we’ll get to him in due time), how can you not get better. Fitzpatrick has continually improved and he should greatly improve upon his 23 picks last season; I expect good things from Ryan this season. It’s hard not to like Cutler’s big arm and add that he has his old favorite target in Brandon Marshall back, his 2012 looks too good.

These guys are more than just after thoughts, or roster fillers, they could be a great replacement and starter because of injuries or should any of the big names struggle. Keep them on your radar.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

August 20th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

A New Season and New Faces to Watch

With every new NFL season a new fantasy season begins and with that the new crop faces and names of the payers to watch. This year will be no different. There are going to be some real gems in your fantasy draft that are going to out-perform their draft position (if they are drafted), but the key is identifying these guys early before they become public knowledge and up for grabs in your fantasy leagues.

Rising Stars

Last season a couple of late bloomers that figure to be key performers in the upcoming fantasy season include; Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and Raiders wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. Now of course this is only a short list and there are likely plenty more to talk about, but let’s just start with these.

In only his second season the Steelers newly resigned (just this off-season to a hefty extension) wideout made a very good name for himself in 2011 playing opposite the speedy Mike Wallace. While Wallace often demanded double coverage, Brown exploited the single coverage he faced and produced strong numbers in his sophomore campaign; 69 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving. Entering his third season he looks ready to breakout.

Heyward-Bey, a fourth year player for the Raiders started out slow last season, but finally broke out in week 4 with against the Patriots. Just when it appeared he was finally starting to hit his stride, down went quarterback Jason Campbell; enter Carson Palmer. It took a while for Palmer and Heyward-Bey to gel, but once the two were in sync the Raiders receiver starting to shine. In his last four starts Heyward-Bey caught 26 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns. Palmer is back under center and Heyward-Bey looks ready to rise to the next level.

Another name to consider is the Dolphins running back Reggie Bush, who is no old dog, but seems to still have a few tricks. Not a stranger to fantasy, Bush has been relatively irrelevant the past several seasons falling off many drafts boards come draft day. It’s understandable; he missed 20 games over his last four seasons in New Orleans before joining the Phins in 2011, but after last season’s performance down the stretch he could be experiencing a rebirth in South Beach.

With the Phins making the move to roll with their rookie quarterback, Bush is going to be rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s best friend out of the backfield; and we already know what Reggie can do with the ball in space. A lot of folks are skeptical about Bush’s durability, but if used wisely he can be a monster on offense on the ground and in the air. Last season Bush finished as the leagues’ 13^th leading rusher, coming on strong down the stretch. His last four starts he averaged around 23 touches per game and 150 yards of offense. He definitely looks primed to rise in 2012.

Sleepers Watch

Worthy Hands?

These guys are likely off most radars and understandably so, but I believe they are more than interesting enough to keep a watch for; in Miami wide receiver Roberto Wallace, in St. Louis wide receiver Steve Smith, in Tampa Bay Mike Williams, and in Detroit wide receiver Titus Young.

Wallace is a relative unknown (unless you have been watching “Hard Knocks”), but he has the size and athletic build to be a star. He just needs a young strong arm to believe in him. With the wide receiver position wide open in Miami, he not only has a chance to make the team, but earn significant time. All he needs is opportunity to be a big producer.

A receiver that knows something about being a big producer may have just found himself the best home yet in St. Louis. Steve Smith was highly productive in New York before injuries derailed his ascension. Now with the Rams, this veteran has a chance to build a strong rapport with a very young and confident arm in Sam Bradford. Already he is making an impression with 11 catches in just two preseason games. This recipe certainly has the smell and flavor of becoming something quite tasty for the fantasy world.

Williams and Young are not quite unknown, having had decent 2011 seasons, but playing in the shadows of Calvin Johnson (in Detroit) and Vincent Jackson (former Charger) will certainly improve their chances of continuing with that momentum. Young will enter his second season and still play second fiddle, but with the young Matt Stafford firing the pigskin, he should still get plenty of looks to be more than relevant in 2011. Williams caught 65 balls for the second straight season, but only found the end-zone 3 times (down from 11 in 2010). Jackson’s presence should ensure he produces even better numbers in 2012, including many more touchdowns.

These are just my takes on a few of the up and coming fantasy studs for 2012.

By David Ortega