FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 17th, 2016
Wednesday

Early Fantasy Sleepers to Consider Late

Well the new fantasy is well under way and if you are like me, you've already had your share of multiple mock drafts as we get closer to to the actual. There's no time of the year quite like this, when fantasy frenzy takes over and consumes all of us fantasy gamers.

The training camps are in full swing and the fantasy rumor mill is churning on high. If you've been paying attention there is a lot of information out there , so just make sure you don't get lost in the clouds and take plenty of notes.

Week 2 of the preseason kicks off tomorrow and before you know it the 2016 season will be kicking off, so let's not waste any time and start talking some fantasy football.

I haven't done too much digging to this point, but looking at some of the changes in the offseason and the new lineups, these are some of my early sleeper picks I will be looking to steal in the mid-to-later rounds of my upcoming drafts....

With the departure of DeMarco Murray to Tennessee, running back Ryan Mathews appears to be pegged as the lead back in Philly now. Durability may be a concern, but if Mathews can stay on the field he's has shown the ability to produce (5.1 yards per carry avg) and could very well improve on his 7 total touchdowns from a year ago. Mathews is should be available from the middle of the third round or later, and that's where I would take him.

There's no question in Pittsburgh there's only one name opposing DB's will need to be concerned with and that's Antonio Brown. But fantasy owners should be keeping an eye on Darrius Heyward-Bey. With Martavis Bryant gone for the season, DHB could be a flyer fantasy owners could target late in their drafts. DHB has the potential for the big play and his 15 yards per catch average last season were his best numbers since his 64-catch, 975-yards, and 15.2 yards average in 2012.

One more quick note for the night, a couple of tightends I like that should go later in drafts (6th-to-7th rounds or later) are Dwayne Allen (Indy) and Martellus Bennett (NE). With Fleener now in New Orleans, Allen inherits the lead role as the primary pass-catching tightend and with Andrew Luck throwing to him, his numbers will improve vastly this season. 

Over in New England, Bennett's arrival returns to quarterback Tom Brady his bookend tightends. Gronk is Gronk and will put up his Gronk like numbers, but expect Bennett to improve his 2015 numbers (53 rec/439 yards/3 touchdowns) with Brady throwing to him. He's a mid-round TE2 pick with a lot of upside potential.

That's my take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition
November 16th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

No Brown on Sunday Could Means More Wallace
The Steelers will operate Sunday night without wide receiver Antonio Brown and going against a weakened Ravens defense could mean more opportunities for the speedster Mike Wallace. Wallace is the team’s homerun hitter, but has been relatively quiet this season; just one 100-yard receiving game this season. The Ravens are ranked 26th against the pass allowing more than 250 yards in the air; even without Big Ben (Roethlisberger) under center expect the Steelers to take their shots downfield. Wallace will be a hit and miss, but hard to sit him when he’s always a threat to take one to the house and still averaging better than 7 targets per game in his last three contests.

Moore Could Be the Hot Pick this Week in Oak-town
With wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (hamstring) likely to be shelved this Sunday against the Saints, wideout Denarius Moore figures to pick up the slack in a big way. Moore leads the team with five scores this season and could add to that total going up against one of the leagues worst pass defense. The Saints have allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season and are giving up the most fantasy points to receivers. Moore is a must start Sunday.

Megatron Could Be Ready for Another Big Sunday
Wide receiver Calvin Johnson may only have a few trips to the end zone on his 2012 resume, but he’s still having a Mega-season; on pace for 115 receptions, 1,731 yards receiving, and 3.5 touchdowns. This Sunday Calvin will face the Packers 19th ranked pass defense, a defense that he owned in their last matchup in 2011; a scoring line of 11/244/1. The Packers also allow the 9th most fantasy points to receivers which should bode well for Megatron owners.

Celek Could Have a Big Game on Sunday
The Eagles tight end Brent Celek could easily end up being rookie quarterback Nick Foles best friend this Sunday. With Foles making his first start, Celek could very well wind up being a hot target and safety net for the rookie. Celek has been quiet the past five games, but Sunday facing the Redskins 30th ranked pass defense could change all that. The Redskins defense allows the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends, including 7 touchdowns. If you have been sitting Celek as of late, this could be the week to put him in.

Campbell Set to Start Monday Night
The Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has been ruled out for Monday night and back up Jason Campbell will get the start. Like was saw last Sunday night when Campbell relieved the injured Cutler, wide receiver Brandon Marshall can expect to be a busy pass catcher. Marshall was Campbell’s go-to much of the second half and this should play out Monday night. The Niners have been stingy against opposing receivers allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points, but Marshall has been dominant much of the season and remains a solid top WR1 every week (even with Campbell under center).


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

August 20th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

A New Season and New Faces to Watch

With every new NFL season a new fantasy season begins and with that the new crop faces and names of the payers to watch. This year will be no different. There are going to be some real gems in your fantasy draft that are going to out-perform their draft position (if they are drafted), but the key is identifying these guys early before they become public knowledge and up for grabs in your fantasy leagues.

Rising Stars

Last season a couple of late bloomers that figure to be key performers in the upcoming fantasy season include; Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and Raiders wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. Now of course this is only a short list and there are likely plenty more to talk about, but let’s just start with these.

In only his second season the Steelers newly resigned (just this off-season to a hefty extension) wideout made a very good name for himself in 2011 playing opposite the speedy Mike Wallace. While Wallace often demanded double coverage, Brown exploited the single coverage he faced and produced strong numbers in his sophomore campaign; 69 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving. Entering his third season he looks ready to breakout.

Heyward-Bey, a fourth year player for the Raiders started out slow last season, but finally broke out in week 4 with against the Patriots. Just when it appeared he was finally starting to hit his stride, down went quarterback Jason Campbell; enter Carson Palmer. It took a while for Palmer and Heyward-Bey to gel, but once the two were in sync the Raiders receiver starting to shine. In his last four starts Heyward-Bey caught 26 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns. Palmer is back under center and Heyward-Bey looks ready to rise to the next level.

Another name to consider is the Dolphins running back Reggie Bush, who is no old dog, but seems to still have a few tricks. Not a stranger to fantasy, Bush has been relatively irrelevant the past several seasons falling off many drafts boards come draft day. It’s understandable; he missed 20 games over his last four seasons in New Orleans before joining the Phins in 2011, but after last season’s performance down the stretch he could be experiencing a rebirth in South Beach.

With the Phins making the move to roll with their rookie quarterback, Bush is going to be rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s best friend out of the backfield; and we already know what Reggie can do with the ball in space. A lot of folks are skeptical about Bush’s durability, but if used wisely he can be a monster on offense on the ground and in the air. Last season Bush finished as the leagues’ 13^th leading rusher, coming on strong down the stretch. His last four starts he averaged around 23 touches per game and 150 yards of offense. He definitely looks primed to rise in 2012.

Sleepers Watch

Worthy Hands?

These guys are likely off most radars and understandably so, but I believe they are more than interesting enough to keep a watch for; in Miami wide receiver Roberto Wallace, in St. Louis wide receiver Steve Smith, in Tampa Bay Mike Williams, and in Detroit wide receiver Titus Young.

Wallace is a relative unknown (unless you have been watching “Hard Knocks”), but he has the size and athletic build to be a star. He just needs a young strong arm to believe in him. With the wide receiver position wide open in Miami, he not only has a chance to make the team, but earn significant time. All he needs is opportunity to be a big producer.

A receiver that knows something about being a big producer may have just found himself the best home yet in St. Louis. Steve Smith was highly productive in New York before injuries derailed his ascension. Now with the Rams, this veteran has a chance to build a strong rapport with a very young and confident arm in Sam Bradford. Already he is making an impression with 11 catches in just two preseason games. This recipe certainly has the smell and flavor of becoming something quite tasty for the fantasy world.

Williams and Young are not quite unknown, having had decent 2011 seasons, but playing in the shadows of Calvin Johnson (in Detroit) and Vincent Jackson (former Charger) will certainly improve their chances of continuing with that momentum. Young will enter his second season and still play second fiddle, but with the young Matt Stafford firing the pigskin, he should still get plenty of looks to be more than relevant in 2011. Williams caught 65 balls for the second straight season, but only found the end-zone 3 times (down from 11 in 2010). Jackson’s presence should ensure he produces even better numbers in 2012, including many more touchdowns.

These are just my takes on a few of the up and coming fantasy studs for 2012.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

September 28th, 2011, Wednesday

Watercooler Chat

Waiver Wire

The wide receiver position in fantasy leagues does not appear to be exceptionally deep this season, so if you are in search of help you may have to look high and low. Normally when looking high you might find depth with teams like the Saints and Patriots, but with both turning to their tight ends more in 2011, searching low may be the way to go.

One of the low places to look could be in Seattle where the Seahawks saw the return of their premiere wide out Sidney Rice. There is some concern at the quarterback position for fantasy owners with (Tarvaris) Jackson under center, but in Rice’s first game back he was targeted 10 times and caught eight passes for over 100 yards. Remember Jackson and Rice have some familiarity playing together in Minnesota and tat already appears to be apparent with two connecting often on Sunday. Rice may struggle to turn in those big games from week to week, but he looks to be a safe WR3 or flex with plenty of upside.

Another struggling passing game where owners may find some light could be in Minnesota with wide receiver Michael Jenkins. The former Falcon was never the go-to receiver, but he is showing lots of potential with the Vikings and is quickly becoming (Donovan) McNabb’s favorite target (17 targets this season ties for team lead). Surprisingly Jenkins is showing sure hands this season nabbing 15 of those targets and with his great speed he has big play capability. He’s a fantasy diamond in the rough, but if you are desperate for help he’s a low risk, high reward as a WR3 or flex play.

“Take of the Week”

There’s no question that if he’s available on the waiver wire, one of this weeks’ best take (out) is Packers running back James Starks. After a disappointing performance last Sunday against the Bears, Starks could be in line for a prime start against the Bronco’s shaky defense. The latest news reports are indicating running back Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) could miss week 4, if he misses that could open the door to a big game for Starks.


Watch List

With the loss of stud receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans have a big void to fill in their passing attack. This week the time inked a deal with former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. Now I am not saying Avery is the answer and will fill that void, but if Avery is healed from his past knee injuries, once he returns to football shape he could give the Titan’s their big-playmaker and deep threat they lost with Britt’s injury. And with a savvy veteran like (Matt) Hasselbeck under center, Avery’s fantasy status could also benefit.

Time for the ”dump”

The Raiders are playing good football at the moment, showing lots of balance with a strong ground game and steady passing attack. With all that is going well in Oakland, there seems to be a missing component or contributor to the success; wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. DHB has hardly been in the mix and even with all the great speed he possesses, he just can’t seem to get out of the starting gate. In three weeks DHB has only caught five passes and was only targeted three times last Sunday (finished with one catch). As the Raiders continue to roll and get better, the more likely it appears DHB will be left behind. If you invested any confidence in Heyward-Bey this summer, now may be the time to part ways and look elsewhere for help at receiver.

Just My take.

By David Ortega

FSH: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (TARGET PRACTICE)

December 3rd, 2010, Friday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

Right now there is no more a sure thing at the wideout spot than the Chiefs Dwayne Bowe. With the frequency that he is seeing balls thrown in his direction, just walking out of the locker room he’s already been targeted several times. In his last three games no other player in the league comes close to his 43 targets and over that time Bowe has been unstoppable.

The Chiefs wide receiver has racked up 465 yards with 32 receptions and seven touchdowns. Bowe may not come close to setting the NFL record for receiving touchdowns, but his 14 thus far this season have already surpassed last year’s top total of 13. Bowe is the hottest scoring fantasy player at the moment, averaging 29 points per game. He’s without a doubt taking advantage of his 14 targets per game.

My Fantasy Notes:

With a big matchup coming up on Monday night with the New England Patriots and their 32 ranked pass defense, wide receiver Santonio Holmes could be licking his chops and looking at a big night. Over the past several weeks Holmes has quietly emerged as the Jets go to receiver. Since his return to action in week five, Holmes leads the team with 56 targets.

In his last three starts Holmes has caught 17 passes for 246 yards on 27 targets. The Jets big play receiver has also scored four times in the past three weeks, including scoring at least once in each of the three games. With the Patriots next on the schedule Holmes looks like a big play ready to happen. The Pats defense has allowed 21 passing touchdowns and 41 pass plays of 20 yards or more; the prospects of a big game for Holmes looks like a lock.

Radar Watch

In My Sites

It appears the Raiders are not going to waste any time getting rookie wide receiver Jacoby Ford into the mix this week. According to the Oakland Tribune, head coach Tom Cable may have hinted Ford would start over Darrius Heyward-Bey this Sunday against the Chargers.

It should not surprise anyone should the Raiders follow through with Cable’s hint. Ford has been a fast rising star in the bay area over the past several weeks. Last Sunday Ford caught four passes for 108 yards and scored on a 44 yard pass from quarterback Bruce Gradkoski; it was Ford’s first career touchdown. It was also his second game of at least 100 yards receiving in his past three games played.

In his last three games, Ford leads the Raiders with 27 targets, 283 yards receiving, and their only touchdown. His 12 receptions also rank second on the team over that span. With a tough matchup with the Chargers this Sunday, Ford may not be primed for a breakout game this week, but with the Jaguars (ranked 27th against the pass) and Bronco’s (ranked 19th) next to follow he could be a nice sleeper play in the fantasy playoffs.

Top 10 Target Leaders for the past three weeks
(unofficial numbers)

1. Dwayne Bowe (43 targets)
2. Larry Fitzgerald (35 targets)
3. Roddy White (35 targets)
4. Steve Johnson (34 targets)
5. Andre Johnson (31 targets)
6. Calvin Johnson (31 targets)
7. Reggie Wayne (31 targets)
8. Jacob Tamme (30 targets)
9. Brandon Lloyd (29 targets)
10.Wes Welker (29 targets)

FSH: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

April 27th, 2009 9:37pm PST

[Evening Edition]

The NFL Draft: A Fantasy Recap

At First Glance....
Okay football fans, now that you have digested plenty of post NFL Draft fodder “ who did well” and “who did not” it’s time to take a deeper look at this year’s picks and offer my take on their immediate fantasy impact or lack of.

Taking a look at some of the early picks…

The Lions new franchise quarterback of the future Matthew Stafford likely won’t earn his $72-million keep right away. There will be growing pains. In Dynasty leagues Stafford could offer hope for fantasy owners in a year or two, but in redraft he’s not going to offer much right away. He could be worth a look as a second half pickup with weapons like TE Brandon Pettigrew and Megatron to throw to.

There was little doubt when the Seattle Seahawks grabbed linebacker Aaron Curry, they were getting a dynamic player that will make an immediate impact in 2009. At Wake Forest Curry was a playmaker and in Seattle he’ll be utilized as a strong side blitzing linebacker that can make plays against the run or in coverage. IDP owners can expect the rookie to very productive.

The City that Never Sleeps may be up a little longer following the big move the Jets made on day one of the draft. With the selection of quarterback Mark Sanchez, the team clearly is putting a lot of their eggs in one basket, but one that could pay-off right away. Head Coach Rex Ryan understands how to bring along a rookie QB (ala Flacco). The big advantage Sanchez has is coming from one of the biggest collegiate schools that employs a pro-style system. His exposure to the big stage every Saturday will also aid his adjustment to playing on Sunday. Sanchez won’t have a breakout rookie season under center, but he could be effective and efficient much in the same manner as Matt Ryan was during his rookie stint.

Certainly a surprise pick at number seven in the draft, Darius Heyward-Bey could actually end up being a nice sleeper in the second half of the season (yes this is Raiders wishful thinking). For the record I am not a Raider fan, but the rookie has blazing speed (although he has raw receiving skills) and in time could be a great compliment to JaMarcus Russell’s huge arm.

One final look at the early picks in this year’s draft; the Niners took wide receiver Michael Crabtree, largely considered by many the best receiver in the draft. Crabtree is sure to be an instant star in this league, but in San Francisco his numbers may not reflect some of the best in the league. In dynasty leagues Crabtree is a first round grab, but won’t be valued as anything more than a mid-level WR3 this season. In redrafts his value won’t be much higher but he could be late season sleeper, as he and his QB get better together.

With more mini-camps ahead and still months away from summer training camps, I’ll continue to offer my take on this year’s draft. Check back again soon!


Remember to check back for more "Monday Morning Huddle!"

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 20th, 2009 9:47pm PST

13 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: Washington Redskins....
By the time you get this deep into any pre draft scenario, it really becomes anyone’s guess. A few weeks ago it may have been easier to sit back and draw analysis from what the team lacked in 2009, but now just days away from the actual draft and the stories are starting to surface everywhere. Just weeks ago, I recall hearing and reading many reports indicating that the Redskins were just fine with Jason Campbell. Now we hear they may make a move up in the draft to target Sanchez.

While Mark Sanchez could be a nice fit for the future, where does that leave Campbell (who is only 27)? If the team targets Sanchez or if the former Trojan should fall to number 13, does Daniel Snyder make this pick?

The team spent a lot of money in the offseason to shore up an already pretty good defense (ranked 4th overall). Does that mean the draft will be all about the offense? Sanchez is not expected to make it to number 13, so if the Skins are interested they'll have to make a push to move up the board. While offense may be on their minds, another position of interest could be the receiver position, one that gets very thin, once you look past Santana Moss.

By this juncture in the draft a couple of names that could be available, Heyward-Bey and Hakeem Nicks. Both receivers are not the proto-typical size "Big receivers", but with each standing over six feet they offer good size and blazing speed to compliment the speedy Moss.

(Photo by Gerry Broome/Ap Photo)

Head Coach Jim Zorn runs a traditional style west coast system that relies on the short passing game to compliment the run. Last season the Redskins were 23rd in passing with only Moss producing at least 55 receptions at the receiver position. Expect Snyder and company to try and upgrade through the draft. And although there seems to be a plethora of talent available in this year's pool, they are likely to find their best pickins at 13.

Don't expect Zorn to wait too long.


Check back every day for more "On the Ticker!"

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 6th, 2009 9:07pm PST

19 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: Oakland Raiders....
Holding the number seven pick in this year's NFL draft, would it really surprise anyone if the Raiders did something out of the ordinary, took a huge leap, or risked their pick on a potential flyer? If I'm a betting man, I say yes and "bet the farm." The recent reports circulating are the team is enamored with and could be targeting one of this year's fastest wide receiver prospects, Darrius Heyward-Bey (University of Maryland).

The Raiders team owner Al Davis has always been a proponent of the vertical game and with quarterback JaMarcus Russell's canon arm, the team needs playmakers he can throw to. Last season the offense ranked dead last in passing averaging a paltry 148-yards per game and had only five pass plays of more than 40-yards in 2008, among the lowest totals in the league.

Wide receiver Javon Walker has been a bust since his arrival to Oakland and Ronald Curry (released in the offseason) fell off the map in 2008 with just 19 receptions. Drafting Heyward-Bey at the number seven spot could help revamp a receiving corp that lacks any real playmaking skill and depth. Currently Walker and Johnnie Lee Higgins would be the teams projected starters. Heyward-Bey has great size at 6'3" and blistering speed (4.30 at the combine). If he lands in Oakland he'll have a legitimate shot at starting for the Raiders.

(Photo By Greg Fiume / Terps Sports Photography)

If the Raiders can control their emotions, this would be a great spot to land one of the top offensive linemen in the draft. Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe are projected to be gone before the draft gets to the Raiders pick, but they'll still have some choices to consider with Alabama's Andre Smith and Michael Oher. Either of these could be safe picks, but then is that the Raider way?

There's no question that Heyward-Bey would be a work in progress, but the old saying is "Speed kills" and you know that is something Mr. Davis loves. It could be a stretch for the Raiders to make this pick considering how much re-work this team really needs in many other areas, but don't put it past Mr. Davis to reach into his bag of tricks on draft day.


Check back every day for more "On the Ticker!"