FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 26th 2017

Sunday morning Edition

My Week 12 Injury Takes

Here is the latest of some key players as the Countdown to Sunday Kickoff winds down;

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end (ankle) is expected to play and should see his normal workload in a juicy matchup against a Niners defense that’s allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s over the past month. Graham needs to be in lineups.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins; the Texans receiver (foot) is expected to play Monday against the Ravens. It’s a tough matchup against a stout Ravens secondary, but Hopkins is a must-start every week.

QB-Jacoby Brissett; Brissett (concussion) has been cleared to play and will start Sunday against the Titans. Brissett should have his full complement of receiving weapons against a Titans defense that’s allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the past two weeks.

WR-Chris Hogan; the Patriots receiver (shoulder) has been ruled out for week 12. His absence continues to open up the target distribution to receivers Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks; over the past 2 weeks Cooks has tallied 12 catches for 223 yards.

WR-Harry Douglas; the Titans have activated wide receiver Harry Douglas from injured reserve. Douglas has been far off the fantasy radar this season, but with Rishard Matthews questionable Douglas could have some sleeper value in deeper leagues.

RB-Ty Montgomery; the Packers running back is doubtful for today and will Aaron Jones still on the shelf, it will be Jamal Williams again with the starting duties. It will be tough sledding today for Williams facing a Steelers defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards the past month.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; Last week against the Raiders, Gronk was quiet, but did manage a score. This week he has been removed from the team’s injury report and will be one of Brady’s primary options today.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. It should be all-systems-go for Julio today against the Bucs.

WR-John Brown; The Cardinals receiver has been ruled out for Week 12. His absence mean receiver JJ Nelson will likely spend most of his time in the slot today. With the Jags Jalen Ramsey expected to play, it’s likely to be a long day for Nelson.

QB-Jay Cutler; The Dolphins will be without quarterback Jay Cutler, ruled out for Week 12. With Cutler sidelined, Matt Moore will get the road start against the Patriots; Moore is a potential mid-QB2 option this week.

WR-Rishard Matthews; the Titans receiver a late add to the injury report, is listed as questionable for Sunday. If he’s out, Corey Davis could see an expanded role in the passing game.

WR-Marqise Lee; the Jaguars receiver has been removed from the injury report this week. Lee leads the team in receiving this season, but he faces a tough matchup against the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson; he’s a low-value option this week in all formats.

TE-Greg Olsen; the Panthers have activated their tight end and he is expected to play. The word is he’ll only play about half of the offensive snaps, but owners can expect most of those to be on passing downs. He’s still part of the TE1 discussion for Week 12.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Line up

(NFL.com)

I am just like most fantasy football nuts, I love to play the games and all of the games. Every week I take my shots and let the Hail Marys fall where they may and included is the weekly Perfect Lineup on the NFL site. My track record has not been great of late, as I like to play the numbers, mixed in with a little bit gut-feelings and intuition. Last week my team tanked big, but that’s the great thing about fantasy, there’s another week to play until there isn’t. Here are my picks for Week 12;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; The expectation is this offense is going to breakout at some point and while 40 points last week and subsequently a nice passing day from Big Ben (299 yards and 4 touchdowns) would be good indicators, that type of game falls a little short. It’s a great start nonetheless and has generated some buzz, but my gut is telling me this week is the boom week for Big Ben and the offense; bigger than last week.

RB-Kareem Hunt; Last week the hopes were high for Hunt and the Chiefs offense, but unfortunately there was only disappointment. This week owners will be singing a different tune with Hunt and company taking on the (Bills) worst run defense in the league over the past month.

RB-Mark Ingram; The Saints starting running back Mark Ingram is the league’s No.6 RB in standard and PPR, but over the past two weeks he’s number one. Ingram has lead the charge in his last two games with 287 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns and Sunday he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs for the season.

WR-TY Hilton; Over the past month, only one defense against opposing wide receivers has been worse than the Titans. In the last four weeks the Titans defense has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns (6) and fantasy points to opposing receivers. This sounds like a very good matchup for wide receiver TY Hilton and with his quarterback Jacoby Brissett cleared for Sunday, all signs point toward big day.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons receiver is healthy this week or as healthy as he’s been this season and it comes in time for fantasy owners. The Falcons draw the Bucs this week and their 29th ranked pass defense and a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards, most receptions, and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; The Patriots tight end was held in check a week ago with just three catches for 12 yards, but Gronk still managed to find the end zone. I would expect a healthier Gronk to enjoy greater success this week against the Dolphins. Gronk is always a Brady favorite in the red zone and could be looking at one of his multi-touchdown weeks.

PK-Justin Tucker; I am expecting the Ravens offense to have some great success moving the ball and as per usual of the offense this season, they will be calling on the sure footed Justin Tucker.

Steelers Defense; This looks like great matchup for the Steelers defense, a home matchup against a backup quarterback (Brett Hundley) that has been struggling. Hundley is coming off a three-pick performance a week ago. Look for the Steelers defense to turn up the heat and bring lots of pressure, early and often.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 TE Rankings

Gronk will top my Week 8 list in a matchup that has the potential of being a Sunday Shootout at Foxboro. Gronk has been up and down some this season and this game has the potential of being one of his up games.

I have Redskins tight end Jordan Reed climbing the board to No.6 this week. The Cowboys defense has been solid against opposing tight ends, but the Redskins and Reed will be a big test. Reed has quiet numbers this season as the No.14 fantasy TE (PPR), but over his last two games he’s been targeted 15 times, turning in a stat line of 12/101/2.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Zach Ertz

3. Travis Kelce

4. Hunter Henry

5. Kyle Rudolph

6. Jordan Reed

7. Jimmy Graham

8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

9. Cameron Brate

10. Jason Witten

11. Tyler Kroft

12. Jared Cook

13. Jack Doyle

14. Zach Miller

15. George Kittle

16. Austin Hooper

17. Nick O’leary

18. Vernon Davis

19. Ed Dickson

20. OJ Howard

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 8

(NFL.com)

Just a quick week 7 review, Brees was my quarterback last week and he finished No.10, my running backs were McCoy and Freeman, both finished No.2 and No.19 respectively; not bad, but certainly not great. My receivers were Julio and Dez, No.4 and No.9 a vast improvement, and Jimmy Graham (No.6 fantasy TE) wasn’t far off.

For a perfect lineup (standard scoring), a bit off the pace no doubt, but not a bad DFS play (if the salaries work). My Kicker and D/ST were both decent, finishing 7th for Week 7. Final results for week 7, probably not too bad, but we are certainly looking for more from my Week 8 picks;

QB-Carson Wentz; the Eagles quarterback has been on fire of late and with a golden matchup with the Niners at home, he has to be this week’s favorite at QB. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB with 17 touchdowns and 260 yards passing per game.

RB-Le’Veon Bell; the Steelers running back has been the focal point of the offense all season and that’s not changing this week. Bell is averaging nearly 29 touches per game and the Lions

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back has been running like thunder through opposing defenses this season with 560 rushing yards (ranks 5th in the league). He’s only the No.14 fantasy RB (in PPR), but I feel good about his matchup against the Saints this week. Remember, last week the Saints allowed 131 yards rushing to Packers running back Aaron Jones.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals passing game starts and finishes with Green. He’s the No.6 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and looks to improve his ranking this week against the Colts. Colts allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 6th most over the past 4 weeks; looking good for AJ on Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen; the Chargers receiver is one of the most targeted receivers in the league with 68 this season (3rd most). The Patriots have played well this season, but they will have all they can handle trying to cover Allen and the rest of the Chargers receivers. Allen is the go-to, so I expect to see him post numbers on Sunday.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; Gronk has been quiet of late and regardless of the matchup, he’s always has a chance to blow up. I am just taking a shot here and playing the odds. Gronk is still the No.2 fantasy TE this season, but has only scored in double-digit fantasy points in 3 of 6 games and last week he only posted 8.10 fantasy points (in PPR).

PK-Jake Elliott; let’s face it the Eagles are going to score a lot on Sunday against the Niners. I like Elliott’s chances to hit a couple of chip shots and posting double digit points on Sunday.

D/ST-Bengals defense; just playing the numbers with this matchup. The Bengals have a sound defense and they are at home this week. The Bengals will matchup against a Colts offense that ranks 28th in the league in Total Offense and they in turn are the No.2 defense this season. Something’s gotta give, so rolling with Cincy.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 21st 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 7 TE Rankings

As no surprise, once again Gronk leads the way for tight ends in my rankings this week with a marquee matchup on Sunday night against the Falcons, but another heavy favorite in my opinion is Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham. The lack of a stable running game may force the Seahawks with Graham to take advantage of the Giants struggles with opposing tight ends.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Zach Ertz

3. Jimmy Graham

4. Evan Engram

5. Hunter Henry

6. Delanie Walker

7. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

8. Kyle Rudolph

9. Jordan Reed

10. George Kittle

11. Cameron Brate

12. Jason Witten

13. Austin Hooper

14. Jack Doyle

15. Zach Miller

16. Benjamin Watson

17. Tyler Kroft

18. Martellus Bennett

19. Ed Dickson

20. Vernon Davis

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 6 TE Rankings

Despite what on paper looks like a tough matchup this Sunday against the Steelers, I have Travis Kelce in as my No.2 tight end this week. He’s a primary weapon in an offense that’s running in high gear. The Steelers have good numbers against tight ends, but they have yet to face this caliber of a tight end. Kelce cleared the concussion protocol and was left on the Chiefs injury report. He’s good to go.

Sliding up to the No.6 spot this week is the Chargers tight end Hunter Henry. He’s moved past Gates in productivity this season and has scored in two straight contests. He’s got a good shot at making it three in a row with a matchup against the Raiders on Sunday. Last season against the Silver and Black, Henry found the end zone in both games played.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3. Delanie Walker

4. Jordan Reed

5. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

6. Hunter Henry

7. Martellus Bennett

8. Evan Engram

9. Cameron Brate

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Coby Fleener

12. Jared Cook

13. Zach Miller

14. George Kittle

15. Benjamin Watson

16. Jack Doyle

17. AJ Derby

18. Ryan Griffin

19. Austin Hooper

20. Vernon Davis

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 TE Rankings

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jimmy Graham

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jared Cook

7. Jordan Reed

8. Jason Witten

9. Charles Clay

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Eric Ebron

12. Cameron Brate

13. Coby Fleener

14. Ryan Griffin

15. Julius Thomas

16. Jack Doyle

17. Benjamin Watson

18. Evan Engram

19. Jesse James

20. Antonio Gates

21. Austin Hooper

22. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

23. Hunter Henry

24. Vernon Davis

25. David Njoku

As long as he’s healthy and playing Rob Gronkowski tops the list. He’s scored in two straight games and even though by normal standards he doesn’t have a great matchup, this is Gronk. He’s coming off a 10 target game in week 3 and should be in line for a similar workload and that’s why he tops the list.

Travis Kelce, A.K.A Zuess is my number two this week. He’s coming off a very disappointing week 3 (1 target, 1 catch for 1 yard), but don’t let that deter you from rolling with him in week 4. Kelce will definitely see more than a single target this week going up against a Redskins defense that have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

I moved Redskins tight end Jordan Reed into my 7 spot this week. Reed is typically a tough matchup for any defender; his biggest obstacle is usually his health. If Reed plays, expect him to be involved in the passing game. He’s been quiet thus far this season, so there will be no better time for Reed to make noise than Monday night.

I have Coby Fleener seated at the No.13 spot this week. He’s a borderline starter taking on a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a better than 78 percent completion rate. It’s a great matchup, but always tough to gauge since Brees can really distribute the ball and has a lot of mouths to feed.

I have moved Chargers tight end Hunter Henry down to the 23rd spot. Rivers is a gunslinger and with receivers like Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, running back Melvin Gordon, and the other tight end Antonio Gates, just too many cooks in the kitchen. Henry will be tough to trust until we see more consistent involvement in the pass game; zero catches and zero targets.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega