FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 6 TE Rankings

Despite what on paper looks like a tough matchup this Sunday against the Steelers, I have Travis Kelce in as my No.2 tight end this week. He’s a primary weapon in an offense that’s running in high gear. The Steelers have good numbers against tight ends, but they have yet to face this caliber of a tight end. Kelce cleared the concussion protocol and was left on the Chiefs injury report. He’s good to go.

Sliding up to the No.6 spot this week is the Chargers tight end Hunter Henry. He’s moved past Gates in productivity this season and has scored in two straight contests. He’s got a good shot at making it three in a row with a matchup against the Raiders on Sunday. Last season against the Silver and Black, Henry found the end zone in both games played.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3. Delanie Walker

4. Jordan Reed

5. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

6. Hunter Henry

7. Martellus Bennett

8. Evan Engram

9. Cameron Brate

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Coby Fleener

12. Jared Cook

13. Zach Miller

14. George Kittle

15. Benjamin Watson

16. Jack Doyle

17. AJ Derby

18. Ryan Griffin

19. Austin Hooper

20. Vernon Davis

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 4th, 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 4 Sunday Lineup Killers

Week 4 was more like Black Sunday for many fantasy owners, as a lot of big names just didn't show up. Leading the way of the demise was the Falcons Matt Ryan. This was his second consecutive sub-par performance. In Week 3 he threw three picks and here in week 4 Ryan finished as the No.27 fantasy QB; not what owners signed up for when they drafted him as the No.4/5 QB.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: 242 pa yds, 1 td, 2 int

Derek Carr: 143 pa yds, 1 td

Matthew Stafford: 209 pa yds, 0 tds

Ben Roethlisberger: 216 pa yds, 1 td, 1 int

It's simple in New England, if running back Mike Gillislee doesn't find the endzone he's going to crush your fantasy lineup. Since his big breakout Week 1 three-touchdown performance, he's only scored in double digits once, back in week 2. The Patriots have been caught up in some high scoring matchups, but they do most of their damage through the air. Gillislee's totals for Week 4, 49 rushing yards. That's not going to help too many fantasy owners going forward

Running backs

Jonathan Stewart: 68 ru yds, 1 Fum

Mike Gillislee: 49 ru yds

DeMarco Murray: 31 ru yds, 2 rec, 4 rec yds

Jay Ajayi: 46 ru yds, 8-yd rec

This is the second consecutive sub-par week and the third in four games for wide receiver Martavis Bryant. He's only topped 50 yards once this season and has had no more than 3 receptions in any game this season. I'm sure Martavis, along with fantasy owners hope he'll break this trend soon, but don't look for it this week. Next up for Bryant is Jacksonville and their No.1 passing defense.

Wide Receivers

Martavis Bryant: 3 rec, 48 rec yds

Rishard Matthews: 3 rec, 49 rec yds

Adam Thielen:5 rec, 59 rec yds, 1 Fum

It's time to put the Chargers tight end Antonio Gates on the shelf. He's definitely fallen down the pecking order behind the trio of Chargers receivers; Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin. Gates may bounce back here and there , but with just 3 catches for 18 yards in Week 4 (the No.28 fantasy TE) he can no longer be trusted as a fantasy starter.

Tight Ends

Delanie Walker: 3 rec, 51 rec yds

Coby Fleener: 2 rec, 21 rec yds

Jack Doyle: 5 rec, 27 rec yds

Antonio Gates: 3 rec, 18 rec yds

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 TE Rankings

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jimmy Graham

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jared Cook

7. Jordan Reed

8. Jason Witten

9. Charles Clay

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Eric Ebron

12. Cameron Brate

13. Coby Fleener

14. Ryan Griffin

15. Julius Thomas

16. Jack Doyle

17. Benjamin Watson

18. Evan Engram

19. Jesse James

20. Antonio Gates

21. Austin Hooper

22. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

23. Hunter Henry

24. Vernon Davis

25. David Njoku

As long as he’s healthy and playing Rob Gronkowski tops the list. He’s scored in two straight games and even though by normal standards he doesn’t have a great matchup, this is Gronk. He’s coming off a 10 target game in week 3 and should be in line for a similar workload and that’s why he tops the list.

Travis Kelce, A.K.A Zuess is my number two this week. He’s coming off a very disappointing week 3 (1 target, 1 catch for 1 yard), but don’t let that deter you from rolling with him in week 4. Kelce will definitely see more than a single target this week going up against a Redskins defense that have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

I moved Redskins tight end Jordan Reed into my 7 spot this week. Reed is typically a tough matchup for any defender; his biggest obstacle is usually his health. If Reed plays, expect him to be involved in the passing game. He’s been quiet thus far this season, so there will be no better time for Reed to make noise than Monday night.

I have Coby Fleener seated at the No.13 spot this week. He’s a borderline starter taking on a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a better than 78 percent completion rate. It’s a great matchup, but always tough to gauge since Brees can really distribute the ball and has a lot of mouths to feed.

I have moved Chargers tight end Hunter Henry down to the 23rd spot. Rivers is a gunslinger and with receivers like Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, running back Melvin Gordon, and the other tight end Antonio Gates, just too many cooks in the kitchen. Henry will be tough to trust until we see more consistent involvement in the pass game; zero catches and zero targets.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Week 2 TE Rankings (PPR)

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jordan Reed

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jimmy Graham

7. Greg Olsen

8. Kyle Rudolph

9. Charles Clay

10. Martellus Bennett

11. Tyler Eifert

12. Coby Fleener

13. Jason Witten

14. Jesse James

15. Jared Cook

16. Austin Hooper

17. Hunter Henry

18. Antonio Gates

19. Cameron Brate

20. Eric Ebron

21. Julius Thomas

22. Evan Engram

23. Jack Doyle

24. Zach Miller

25. George Kittle

He’s the consensus best tight end in the game today and after an uneventful week one, Rob Gronkowski has a mouth-watering matchup this week. He should be featured quite a bit on Sunday and make up for owners his lack of production in week one. The Saints defense has already allowed one touchdown to tight ends this season, I’d expect them to yield at least another.

The biggest riser in my TE rankings this week is Eagles tight end Zach Ertz and the biggest reason was his week one 8 targets. Ertz has a great rapport with his quarterback and is going to see a steady volume of targets week in and week out.

Charles Clay is my No.9 tight end this week. It seems pretty clear he’s going to be Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s security blanket in the passing game. Clay was targeted 9 times in week and was Taylor’s go to in the red-zone connecting for a week 1 score. As long as Clay see’s this kind of action each week, he’s going to be a Top-10 mainstay.

A new name in the Top-20 this week is Raiders tight end Jared Cook; 5 targets, 5 receptions, and 56 yards in week 1. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but paired with quarterback Derek Carr if he can see this kind of work each week, he has a chance to be a viable streaming tight end option and possible low-end TE1 in deep leagues (14-16 teams).

I’ve downgraded both of the both from Los Angeles (Chargers); Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates. Week one was a tough matchup against the Broncos vaunted No Fly Zone, but one thing is clear, there are other weapons available to quarterback Philip Rivers. With the abundance of receivers (and eventual return of rookie WR Mike Williams), the tight ends could be on the short end of the stick when it comes to opportunities (targets).

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 17th, 2016
Saturday

Week 2 Four Horsemen

After quickly glancing at this week's matchups on Sunday, here are a few names that jump off the board as possible fantasy stud plays for Week 2. 

Here are my Four Horsemen for NFL Sunday Week 2.

QB-Philip Rivers (Chargers)
The Chargers lost a tough one in week one letting an 18 point half-time lead slip away and again it was a tale of two tapes. Against a tough Chiefs defense quarterback Philip Rivers started fast completing 16 of 20 passes for 151 yards and a score. In the second half along with the offense is where Rivers struggled. This week look for the savvy vet to rebound and finish strong at home on Sunday. Rivers lost a big weapon with wide receiver Keenan Allen going down, but he'll still have plenty of targets with Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates, and Danny Woodhead. Rivers will be facing a Jaguars defense that allowed 199 yards passing and two scores in week one to the Packers. If Rivers is afforded the time, he'll pick apart the secondary and should post some strong week 2 fantasy numbers; 22 of 29 passes, 277 yards passing, three touchdown passes!

RB-Rashad Jennings (Giants)
Week one was anything but blistering for the Giants running back Rashad Jennings, but for fantasy owners his 19 touches were a big positive. This week the Giants offense will match up with Saints defense that was obliterated for 486 yards of offense in week one, including 169 yards on the ground. Jennings has some success in week one with 75 yards on the ground, but he should definitely improve on his totals and 4.2 yards per carry average against a run defense that allowed 6.4 yards per carry and three scores. This Sunday Jennings should be a top 10 fantasy play; 19 carries, 95 yards, two rushing touchdowns!

WR-Golden Tate (Lions)
The Lions slot man, Golden Tate was perfect in week one, catching 7 passes on 7 targets. This week he could feast even more against a visiting Titans secondary. The match up is not necessarily a fantasy frenzy, the Lions just have a lot of weapons and will present a lot of match up problems for Tennessee. And back in week one, the Titans struggled to keep up with Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs; Tate owners take note. With his seven targets last week, Tate is a big part of the passing game and Stafford looked sharp a week ago; expect similar production with an added score; 6 receptions, 90 yards receiving, and a touchdown. 

TE-Delanie Walker (Titans)
Here's a match up fantasy owners should be all-in on. In week one the Lions pass defense allowed 7 receptions (on 10 targets) for 88 yards receiving, and three touchdowns to the tight end position. This week tight end Delanie Walker and the Titans come to town. Walker has been a rising star at the TE position the past couple of seasons and after a slow start in week one, 3 receptions (on five targets) for 42 yards, expect the Titans to get him going early and often. Last season Walker posted career numbers (94 receptions, 1,088 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns) with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota under center, this season the duo will be looking to improve. Fantasy owners can expect a good start this Sunday; 7 receptions, 85 yards receiving, 1 touchdown.

That's my take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

David's Daily Digest

The Week in Review

Breaking Down my Week 8 Picks

As I do each and every week, it’s time to take a look back and see how I did. Each week you have to look back at the past so you can learn from your triumphs and mistakes.

My Week8 Duds

Week 8 produce quite a few names to make this list and for many fantasy owners, this was not good. Tight end Antonio Gates pulled a disappearing act on Sunday against the Browns turning in a two catch effort. Fantasy owners were hit hard with disappointment, but Gates has no apparent injury that would suggest this type of slump will continue.

Like Gates, the Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown was another disappointment on Sunday. The Steelers wideout snagged four passes for just 38 yards; far below his expected output. Fantasy owners can relax, Brown was still targeted six times and will continue to see plenty of activity his direction. The six targets were a season low, likely because the Steelers were up big and riding the ground game.

The Browns rookie receiver Josh Gordon was a big dud on Sunday after coming off a three-game scoring streak. Gordon was held in check with just three catches for 46 yards. Gordon is second among receivers on the team with 41 targets this season and has been seeing more looks his direction. Unfortunately there is too much inconsistency with the Browns offense at this time to consider Gordon reliable.

My Week 8 Studs

Unfortunately the list here is not long, but it is notable. The Eagles running back LeSean McCoy was his shady self on Sunday finding the end zone twice. McCoy has not had many big games yet this season, but he is the focal point of the Eagles ground attack and has the versatility to be involved in the passing game. Sunday’s performance was just a small taste of more to come.

The Lions quarterback Matt Stafford erupted for a four touchdown performance on Sunday (3 passing, 1 rushing) against a formidable foe in the Seahawks defense. Stafford had not looked very sharp through the first seven weeks, but his monster game on Sunday could be a great indication of what fantasy owners can expect in the second half of the season.

While the Broncos freakish receiver Demaryrius Thomas is grabbing headlines on one side, the Broncos other receiver Eric Decker is quietly holding his own. Against the Saints Decker pulled down just four passes on six targets, but two went for scores. With DT presenting matchup problems for opposing defenses Decker stands to see more games such as this one; he’s a low WR2 going forward.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 8

Saturday Edition
October 28TH, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 8

Before looking ahead to Sunday, here’s a quick look back at week 7. It’s been a steady year thus far, with my team averaging 116 points per week, but in week 7 we fell off the pace a bit scoring just 108 points.

The highlight of my week 7 lineup was undoubtedly the Jackson 2. Running back Fred Jackson was solid last week against the Titans totaling 26 fantasy points which was powered by his 8 receptions a touchdown and 120 yards from scrimmage. The other Jackson, Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson was even greater with 7 receptions for 216 yards and a score.

If my team is going to make any moves this week, I’ll need efforts like this from more than just two players, so let’s take a look at who I am turning to in week 8.

My Line-up

The season is long and there are still plenty of weeks to play, but after falling a couple of spots last week, it’s time to make a big jump up the board and get back into this race. Here’s a look at my lineup for week 8 and the players that will get the job done;

Quarterback:
This week under center it will be “Big Ben” Roethlisberger against the Redskins. Big Ben has faced two teams ranked 25th or higher against the pass and he’s averaged 373 yards passing with 5 touchdowns and just one pick. The Redskins rank 32 versus the pass and allow the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Backs:
I am saddling up with a couple of horses that should run pretty ragged this Sunday. The first is Ryan Matthews; the Chargers ball carrier is looking at the league’s 25th ranked run defense (Browns) that allows the 13th most fantasy points to opposing backs. The Chargers are coming off a horrid collapse on Monday night in week 6; they got away from the run and it hurt them. This week lots of Matthews should lead to a road win.

My other tailback for Sunday is LeSean McCoy versus the Falcons. The Eagles running back currently ranks 16th in fantasy scoring among ball carriers. Fantasy owners are waiting for the real “Slim Shady” McCoy to arrive and this week could be the week. The Falcons defense ranks 28th against the run, allowing seven rushing touchdowns this season, and giving up the 12th most fantasy points to running backs. Look for Shady to break loose this Sunday.

Wide Receivers:
Leading the good hands people in week 8 is the Packers “Mr. Excitement” wide receiver Randall Cobb. With Jennings out, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had to call on his other weapons to step up and over the past several weeks Cobb has been one to answer that call. Since week 5 Cobb leads the team in receptions (19-tied) and receiving yards (273). This week Cobb should enjoy more success against a Jaguars defense that ranks 24th against the pass.

Also lining up out wide this week is wide receiver Antonio Brown. It only makes sense if Big Ben is going to have a big Sunday, than his targets are in line to do the same. With Wallace always a threat to go deep on the other side, Brown has been seeing lots of opportunities averaging better than 9 targets per contest. The Redskins give up the most fantasy points to receivers; Sunday should be a very good day for Brown.

Tight End:
The Browns defense is ranked 26th against the pass this season which should spell good news for Chargers tight end Antonio Gates. The Brown may only allow the 8th fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but Gates is no ordinary tight end. He is coming off his best performance of the season, scoring twice in week 6 against the Broncos, and should be a focal point in the Chargers passing attack.

Place Kicker:
This week I am entrusting the foot of Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski. On the road the Raiders offense could stall in the red zone and Janikowski has the leg to hit it from anywhere. I am expecting at least three field goals on Sunday.

Team Defense:
The Chargers defense has not been much to get too excited about this season ranked 13th overall, but facing a rookie quarterback is always a nice prospect. The Chargers defense ranks 17th in fantasy scoring with 10 sacks, 7 interceptions, and 6 fumble recoveries this season. Sunday they will look to improve upon these numbers.


These are my picks for week 8.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 7TH, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Peyton Manning to miss opener
According to several news outlets and football sources, Peyton Manning (neck) is out for week one. What we are not hearing is for how long. As long as Manning is sidelined, the Colts receivers should be devalued; stay away from the Colts WRs in week one with the exception of Reggie Wayne. Going forward we’ll have to see how back-up quarterback Kerry Collins handles the reigns, before rolling with any of the Colts.

Lance Moore ruled out in week one
With one of Brees favorites on the sideline, step in Marques Colston. The Saints leading receiver should see a few more targets on Thursday with Lance Moore out; fantasy owners should start Colston with confidence.

Antonio Gates close to form?
The Chargers tight end practiced on Wednesday suggesting he is closer to being healthy and ready to return to his Pro Bowl form. Gates was slowed last season by injury, but his recovery has been going well and he is slowly working his way back to form. He should be a safe fantasy start on Sunday.

Arian Foster unsure for Sunday?
That’s a big red flag when the player tells you he doesn’t know if he will go on Sunday. Foster was likely drafted high in most fantasy formats, owners will likely have to wait until game-time before pulling the trigger. If he goes, he should in your lineups, but that is looking like a big “if.”

These are just my takes

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2011 Thurssday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Tidbits

And just for the record, these tid-bits might be more like bite-size or mini-bits, but just the same I am going to share a few notes for thought and observations from the NFL Preseason that is quickly coming to a close. With the 2011 fantasy football season officially on countdown mode and opening kickoff now less than a week away, it’s time to take a quick look at what we have learned thus far or realize we are still clueless.

Some Quick pointers!

In Detroit, what I am hearing (and seeing) third year quarterback Matthew Stafford is quickly making a believer of many with his stellar play through the first three weeks of preseason; and why shouldn’t he the kid has barely completed a full-season of action in his first three years. While that might be true, it’s hard to deny the stars seem to be quickly aligning for the young Mr. Stafford, 24 of 31 passing, five touchdowns, and a passer rating of 154.0; oh yeah, he also had that Megatron kid to throw to.

It may only be a mirage we are seeing in Washington, but I have to say Tim Hightower (170 yards rushing, 6.8 average) is looking like a new running back behind a line that can actually run block (ranked number one in the preseason). The jury may still be out on Hightower, but his stock has quickly risen in the fantasy ranks, taken 20th in a recent custom fantasy draft (was ranked 48th in USA Today). The jury may still be out and it is a little premature to make any bold predictions, but I think we’ve seen enough to feel confident that Hightower ‘Could’ be more than fantasy relevant this season.

In Houston it seems that tight end Owen Daniels may not be getting as much fantasy love as he may deserve. It was only back in 2008 that he caught 70 balls, third most for tightends and this preseason he has looked pretty good collecting seven passes for 64 yards and a score. Unlike players like Gates, Witten, and Finley, Daniels does not appears to be part of a crowded passing attack and could see plenty of opportunity to move his fantasy stock up higher on most draft boards and cheat sheets.

The NFL season is set to start very quickly and looking across the board some of the biggest questions fantasy owners will face as they prepare for their drafts this weekend; who is number one, where do you draft Peyton Manning (neck), when do you take Chris Johnson (hold-out), and is New England a good fit for Ochocinco? There’s no right or wrong answer here, just know it’s going to be a lot of fun learning the truths about these questions and plenty more fantasy related topics over the next 16-17 weeks. Fantasy Football 2011 is here and it’s time to play ball, are you ready some football?


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (THE FOUR HORSEMEN)

December 25th, 2010 Saturday

The Four Horsemen

Let’em Ride

Last week we had a few horsemen riding high through the stomping grounds. Our quarterback Jon Kitna did not disappoint with a big passing day over 300 yards and two touchdowns. Another rider with a big game in week 15 was running back Jonathan Stewart who totaled 137 yards on the ground, but did not find the end-zone. Unlike Stewart our wide receiver Mike Williams did find the end-zone along with six catches for 96 yards; a good day. Only our tight end (Owen Daniels) was M.I.A. in week 15 with just four catches for 45 yards.

This week our horsemen will be riding for gold with many fantasy championships on the line and like “the four winds of the earth” these fantasy play-makers are looking to ride strong bring home a fantasy title for some lucky owner…..

Quarterback:
The San Diego Chargers are still hanging on to playoff hopes by a wing and a prayer and with two games left in the season, they can’t afford any let downs. With his tight end out and wide receiver Malcom Floyd probably out, quarterback Philip Rivers (29 touchdowns, 4,141 yards passing) will need to be at his best. And he just may against the Bengals 18th ranked pass defense. Even with a couple of his weapons missing Rivers and company will give the Bengals’ defense plenty of fits downfield. The Bengals have allowed 20 passing touchdowns and 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more this season. With just 22 sacks this season, if they aren’t able to get any pressure to Rivers he could have a monster day.
(My Prediction: 26 of 40 passing, 335 yards, three touchdowns)

Running Back:
With the 31st ranked run defense (Denver Broncos) next on the slate for Texan’s running back Arian Foster (13 rushing touchdowns), he looks like a shoe-in for a solid game now that he has returned to full-practice this week. Foster was dinged up pretty good a week ago against the Titans missing the last 10 minutes of the game. Foster has been a consistent fantasy point scorer in the Texans’ backfield and the Broncos defense has done nothing but surrender yards and scores this season; allow nearly 160 yards per game and have surrendered 22 rushing touchdowns. Foster is leading the NFL in rushing and figures to extend his lead on Sunday.
(My Prediction: 18 carries, 115 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Wide Receiver:
With so much on the line Monday night, it would be hard to imagine Saints quarterback Drew Brees not looking for his best weapon; wide receiver Marques Colston. The Falcons have been very good at home, but there defense has been suspect ranked 21st against the pass. In their last three home games the Faclons secondary has allowed an average of 250 yards passing and they have surrendred six passing touchdowns. Colston (82 rec, 1,002 yards, 7 Tds) has been steady all season and over his past three road games he has been targeted 24 times grabbed 15 passes for 251 yards with a score. It’s almost a certainty Brees will be looking his way often Monday night.
(My Prediction: 8 receptions, 95 yards, one touchdown)

Tight End:
Last week against the Redskins secondary tight end Jason Witten was huge catching 10 passes for 140 yards and a score. This week Jaguars tightend Marcedes Lewis will get his shot at the Redskins “iffy” defense ranked 30th in the league. Lewis has quietly become a scoring machine in the Jags passing game this season with nine receiving touchdowns. Lewis doesn’t seen many balls in his direction (averages five targets per game), but he makes the most of his opportunities. This week against the Redskins he could see plenty of chances.
(My Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, one touchdown)