FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 6 STARTS & SITS

October 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 6: 

Starts & Sits

Each week fantasy owners are going to be faced with the decision of whether to start or sit some of the fringe players whose fantasy scoring of late and for the season is not quite on par as a starter. A slow start this season, a series of bad matchups, or just over-hyped, whatever the reason for the fringe players performances owners will still need to make the call to roll the dice or move along.

There are 14 games on the remaining schedule for Week 6 and 13 are on the slate for Sunday. And don’t forget the early game in London between the Ravens and Titans. Here are my Week 6, Starts and Sits.

Week 6 Starts

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - The Jaguars quarterback has yet to break out this season, but he did have one of his best games for yards last week, passing for over 300-yards. Lawrence will square off against a Colts defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings passer will face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most passing yards this season and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) - He’s coming off a strong Week 5 performance and should have his full complement of weapons this week with the return of Mike Evans.

Sam Howell (Commanders) - In this road matchup with the Falcons, Howell and the Commanders may have to lean more on the passing game. 92 pass attempts for Howell in his past two starts.

Kyren Williams (Rams) - Williams is the fantasy RB11. This week he gets the Cardinals run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) - The Eagles runner has cooled off the past couple of weeks, but a matchup with the Jets could get things heated once again. Jets allow over 4.0 yards per carry and the 9th most fantasy points to opposing runners.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) - The Ravens receiver has been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks and is averaging double digit fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Coming off his best game of the season in week 5 with 8 receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets, Hopkins will look to keep it going against a Ravens secondary that has allowed 6th most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end has been steady averaging 7 targets per game for the last three weeks.

 

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - Ertz has a nice matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Week 6 Sits

Jared Goff (Lions) - A tough road matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The Texans starter came back to earth last week and has another tough matchup this week against the Saints defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) - White has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s best run defenses this season. The Lions have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and 3rd fewest per carry this season.

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (Browns) - Without their starting quarterback, this offense could really struggle and with the 49ers defense playing well, I just don’t trust this backfield.

Amari Cooper (Browns) - It’s not enough that the Browns are facing the 49ers (4th best defense in the league), but they will be without starter Deshaun Watson. It’s hard to sit Cooper, but I wouldn't expect much from him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) - After a hot start this season, Henry has gone cold along with the Patriots offense. For now the bench is the best place until the offense starts to show more consistency.

Darren Waller (Giants) - The Giants will be without the services of starting quarterback Daniel Jones and Waller (groin) popped up on the injury report this week.  It will be tough to trust him if he is able to play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

With two full weeks in the books, it’s time again to take a look at those rosters and check out the Waiver wire. With several significant injuries this past week and your championship hopes on the verge of being derailed, it might be time to work the wire and make the magic happen.

Week 3 Waiver wire options;

RB-Matt Breida (Giants) - With Saquon going down in week 2 and expected (although not ruled out yet) to miss Thursday night, running back Matt Breida looks to be the next man up. Breida is a career 4.8 yards per carry guy should fill the role fine in the short term. He may not be featured like Saquon, but he could be a low-end RB2/Flex option for the time being. Barkley isn’t expected to be out too long, so go get Breida if you have the need.

RB-Jerome Ford (Browns) - Following the very unfortunate season ending injury to Nick Chubb, Ford stepped in and did more than a commendable job. Ford carried the ball 16 times on Monday night for 106 yards and added 3 catches for another 25 yards. He also added a receiving touchdown finishing the week as RB6 (ppr). Odds are he won’t finish that high by season end, but he certainly looks like a guy he could be a borderline RB1/RB2.

RB-Jaylen Warren (Steelers) - This pickup, if Warren is available in your league, harbors on the fact that running back Najee Harris has just been ineffective the first two weeks of the season (74 rushing yards in two games). As Harris continues to lumber, Warren will continue to see his workload increase (10 touches on Monday night).

WR-DeVante Parker (Patriots) - Right now Parker is a fix for the flex spot in deeper leagues, but he should be owned. He has the talent to be a solid WR2 if he can stay healthy (11 games missed the past two seasons). Parker was targeted 8 times on Sunday night and pulled in six passes for 57 yards.

WR-Tutu Atwell (Rams) - With all the talk deservedly surrounding Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, quietly Atwell has made a case himself to be owned in fantasy leagues. After a week one stat line of 6 receptions for 119 yards, he followed that up with 7 catches for 77 yards this past Sunday. Atwell has been targeted 17 times over the first two weeks of the season. With that kind of volume he remains in the flex mix every week.

TE-Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - The fantasy tight end position can look like a wasteland at times, when you are checking weekly results. It becomes a tough spot to find production. But everyone knows before you have production, you must have that volume of opportunity. Over the past two weeks Ertz has been targeted 18 times. He’s also on the field plenty (72.4% snap share) for those opportunities. If you are streaming tight ends, it’s time to grab Ertz (11 receptions for 77 yards in 2023 - currently fantasy TE9.

A few more notables to consider and at the very least should be on your bench, if not already owned include, (WR) Josh Reynolds, (WR) Tank Dell, (WR) Jayden Reed, (RB) Zack Moss, (WR) Marvin Mims Jr, and (RB) Tony Jones Jr. These players could become steady contributors down the stretch. 

Others that could be in the cards down the road to provide some depth relief for the coming bye weeks and are worth watching now include (RB) Damien Harris, (RB) Roschon Johnson, and (WR) Chase Claypool.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 13th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

In fantasy football luck plays its part, but success is all about chances. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 1

Top 5 WR

1. Tyreek Hill (15)

2. Puka Nacua (15)

3. Stefon Diggs (13)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (13)

5. Justin Jefferson (12)

Stefon Diggs displayed why he’s an elite receiver in the NFL turning in another 100-yard receiving performance with 10 receptions and a score. He will finish as a Top-5 fantasy receiver in 2023 at this pace.

Top 5 TE

1. Zach Ertz (10)

2. TJ Hockenson (9)

3. Logan Thomas (8)

4. Hayden Hurst (7)

5. Cole Kmet (7)

The overall production was a bit light, but with the10 targets on Sunday tight end Zach Ertz could easily bounce back and very soon. The Cardinals air attack may continue to stall a bit here in the early season, but as long the volume is there Ertz could be fantasy relevant soon.

Top 5 RB

1. Roschon Johnson (7)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (7)

3. Bijan Robinson (6)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson (6)

5. James Cook (6)

Running back James Cook was lead back on Monday night and dominated the Bills backfield in snaps and touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and as long as this volume continues, he’s in line for some big games in the future.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 1

Top 5 RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (25)

2. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

3. Nick Chubb (22)

4. Cam Akers (22)

5. Miles Sanders (22)

Cam Akers was ineffective on Sunday against the Seahawks only totaling 29 yards on the ground, but you can't ignore his usage. Despite the tough treading, the Rams stayed with Akers. His 22 carries ranked tied for the most in week 1 and with that kind of work, fantasy owners can expect better outputs from Akers (so long as the workload continues).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 1

Sit’ems

1. Jimmy G, QB (LVR) - This will be a tough road matchup for Jimmy G. And although I am not down on him this season, afterall he has Davante to throw to, I just feel better about other options. I’d prefer to sit Jimmy G here and see how he plays first, and roll in another direction

2. Gabe Davis, WR (BUF) - I will admit, I watched “Hard Knocks” this season and I am a fan of the Jets D. I really believe they will be tough. I’m not so sure about the 85-86 Bears, but they will be a problem for opponents and likely Gabe Davis in Week 1. I see the Bills still taking shots at Sauce Gardner with Diggs, but I also see quarterback Josh Allen spreading the ball all around. Also Davis caught 5 passes for 64 yards in two games against the Jets in 2022.

3. Matthew Stafford, QB (LAR) - With no Cooper Kupp and even questions in my mind about how healthy and strong Stafford is, since returning from a shortened 2022 season due to injury, he’s a wait and see start for me. I like the matchups for quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Jordan Love, and even Baker Mayfield ahead of Stafford who will be on the road.

4. Darnell Mooney, WR (CHI) - The Bears passing game is a low-volume proposition and with the arrival of DJ Moore in the offseason and the addition of Chase Claypool last season, leaves Mooney’s outlook a little murky heading into week 1. I’d rather see how these receivers are used and how much volume Mooney demands before I roll him out. Receivers like Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, and the rookie Jordan Addison have more appeal.

5. Zach Ertz, TE (ARI) - No quarterback Kyler Murray in this one and a banged-up Ertz, does not instill a lot of confidence. There are safer streaming options that I would feel more comfortable with on Sunday, like Juwan Johnson (Saints), Logan Thomas (Commanders), or even Greg Dulcich (Broncos).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
October 19th 2019

Week 7: Fantasy Football Notes

Numbers to Know

The Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (Fantasy WR3) is averaging 11.5 targets and 7.5 receptions per contest this season. His 69 targets leads the league and his 45 receptions rank 2nd through six weeks.

Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette (Fantasy RB9) is averaging more than 19 carries per contest this season and he has also added another 26 receptions on 36 targets; his 36 targets ranks 7th amongst running backs in 2019.

Through six games, the Bengals defense ranks last in fantasy versus opposing running backs, allowing the most fantasy points. The Bengals have also allowed the 3rd most receptions to opposing ball carriers, as well as the most rushing yards; week 7 opponent, Ja

The Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (Fantasy WR15) ranks 5th this season with 56 targets in six games. His 402 receiving yards ranks 20th among receives, but he also has 40 receptions good enough for (tied) 4th best.

The Giants 2019 run defense through six games has allowed the 6th most rushing yards and the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs; week 7 opponent, Arizona.

David Johnson (Fantasy RB5) is second on the team (Cardinals) in receiving this season through six weeks with 30 receptions on 41 targets. His 41 targets ranks 3rd among running backs and his 30 snags ranks 5th. Johnson has also added 298 rushing yards and five total touchdowns (2 rushing, 3 receiving).

The Eagles tight end Zach Ertz has been quiet this season, but his 33 receptions and 366 receiving yards both rank 5th among tight ends. Even with modest numbers, Ertz is being heavily targeted this season; his 54 targets ranks second for tight ends and tied for 9th overall.

The Cowboys have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Through six weeks, the Boys have also allowed the 5th most receptions and the 6th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends; week 7 opponent, Eagles.

All rankings based on PPR scoring, according to Fantasy Data.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
October 12th 2019

DSF Saturday

[Week 6: My Lineup Faves]

QB-DeShaun Watson ($6,700); Over the last three weeks, Watson is the Number 2 fantasy quarterback in scoring with 937 yards passing (ranks 5th), 8 passing touchdowns (ranks 2nd), 74% completions (ranks 4th), and 129.46 passer rating (ranks 1st). Watson will face a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in total defense and could provide plenty of opportunity for another big Sunday.

RB-Mark Ingram II ($6,600); The Ravens running back is the No. 9 fantasy running back (PPR scoring) and is coming off back-to-back modest games in weeks 4 & 5. This Sunday Ingram will get his crack at a Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks. He has a great chance to rebound in a big way.

RB-Chris Thompson ($5,000); The Redskins ball carrier ranks as the No. 23 fantasy running back (PPR scoring) through 5 weeks. Thompson ranks 4th among running backs with 35 targets, 6th with 25 receptions, and 3rd with 268 yards receiving. While the Dolphins have not surrendered a lot in the passing game to opposing running backs over the course of the season, in week 4 they were torched by the Chargers for 97 yards receiving and two scores.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400); Hopkins is due and at his current salary, he plays as a nice stack with Watson. The Chiefs defense has been awful against the run this season, which could open some play action and create some opportunities for Hopkins to do some downfield damage. Hopkins 44 targets through 5 games ranks tied for 7th; he should see plenty of opportunity on Sunday.

WR-Terry McLaurin ($6,000); The Redskins-Dolphins matchup should showcase little defense and open up some potential big play opportunities for both sides. With the return of Case Keenum under center, McLaurin will have a great chance to exploit a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through five games.

WR-Preston Williams ($4,100); In the same matchup, the Dolphins passing game could finally get off the ground this week facing a Redskins defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Williams the No. 58 fantasy receiver this season (PPR scoring) has been a target hog leading the team with 30; this Sunday he’s got a shot to move up the ranks. 

TE-Zach Ertz ($5,400); The Vikings defense has been solid this season against the pass, ranked 6th this season, but if there is a chink in the armor; they have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Ertz lead the team in targets with 45 and ranks 2nd in the league (among TEs). He’ll be a focal point in the pass game on Sunday.

Flex-Joe Mixon ($5,500); The Bengals running back will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. At his current salary, Mixon is almost a must play.

DST-Redskins ($3,200); The Redskins are a value play, facing a turnover prone Dolphins offense this week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 4th 2017

Saturday evening Edition

My Weekly DFS

The Stack

This week I am employing the stack strategy for my Week 9 DFS lineup. I had originally looked at the Texans matchup with the Colts, but the injury to rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson changed that.

My Lineup:

QB-Drew Brees

RB-Mark Ingram

RB-Adrian Peterson

WR-Devin Funchess

WR-Marquise Goodwin

WR-Ted Ginn Jr

TE-Zach Ertz

PK-Jake Elliott

D/ST-Rams

With Watson on IR, I switched my stack to the Saints who are playing at home this week against the Buccaneers. Anytime you have Drew Brees ($8,300) at home, you have to like his matchup and the Bucs have allowed some big games to opposing quarterbacks. Of course with this stack I will lean with Mark Ingram ($7,900) in the backfield to lead in touches and touchdowns this week. Normally I would like to go with Michael Thomas, but lately wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr ($5,700) has trending upward and I love his price.

At the other running back spot I am hanging my hat all over Cardinals running back Adrian Peterson ($6,800). It’s a risky play with quarterback Carson Palmer on Injured Reserve and backup Drew Stanton now under center. Although risky, Peterson is facing a Niners defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs; so I like the matchup.

The Colts will be without Vontae Davis and even though Deshaun Watson is on the IR, I still like wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100) outcome on Sunday. Regardless who is under center, Hopkins will be a focal point and the Colts allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

My only questionable play (I think) is the Niners wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ($4,800). The Niners will be without Pierre Garcon (Injured Reserve) on Sunday and even with the changes at quarterback Goodwin should be a factor in the pass game and could see even more targets.

I am rolling with a favorite at tight end, Zach Ertz against the Broncos. The Denver D has been poor versus opposing tight ends, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points and last week surrendered 7 catches for 133 yards and a score (to Travis Kelce). I like Ertz on Sunday.

My place kicker is the Eagles Jake Elliott ($5,000). The kid has been kicking well and have to play the odds of opportunity; the Eagles at home against the Broncos.

I wrap up the lineup with the Rams defense and special teams ($4,800). The Rams are averaging more than 12 fantasy points per game and have a decent matchup this week against the Giants.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 TE Rankings

Gronk will top my Week 8 list in a matchup that has the potential of being a Sunday Shootout at Foxboro. Gronk has been up and down some this season and this game has the potential of being one of his up games.

I have Redskins tight end Jordan Reed climbing the board to No.6 this week. The Cowboys defense has been solid against opposing tight ends, but the Redskins and Reed will be a big test. Reed has quiet numbers this season as the No.14 fantasy TE (PPR), but over his last two games he’s been targeted 15 times, turning in a stat line of 12/101/2.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Zach Ertz

3. Travis Kelce

4. Hunter Henry

5. Kyle Rudolph

6. Jordan Reed

7. Jimmy Graham

8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

9. Cameron Brate

10. Jason Witten

11. Tyler Kroft

12. Jared Cook

13. Jack Doyle

14. Zach Miller

15. George Kittle

16. Austin Hooper

17. Nick O’leary

18. Vernon Davis

19. Ed Dickson

20. OJ Howard

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 TE Rankings

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jimmy Graham

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jared Cook

7. Jordan Reed

8. Jason Witten

9. Charles Clay

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Eric Ebron

12. Cameron Brate

13. Coby Fleener

14. Ryan Griffin

15. Julius Thomas

16. Jack Doyle

17. Benjamin Watson

18. Evan Engram

19. Jesse James

20. Antonio Gates

21. Austin Hooper

22. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

23. Hunter Henry

24. Vernon Davis

25. David Njoku

As long as he’s healthy and playing Rob Gronkowski tops the list. He’s scored in two straight games and even though by normal standards he doesn’t have a great matchup, this is Gronk. He’s coming off a 10 target game in week 3 and should be in line for a similar workload and that’s why he tops the list.

Travis Kelce, A.K.A Zuess is my number two this week. He’s coming off a very disappointing week 3 (1 target, 1 catch for 1 yard), but don’t let that deter you from rolling with him in week 4. Kelce will definitely see more than a single target this week going up against a Redskins defense that have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

I moved Redskins tight end Jordan Reed into my 7 spot this week. Reed is typically a tough matchup for any defender; his biggest obstacle is usually his health. If Reed plays, expect him to be involved in the passing game. He’s been quiet thus far this season, so there will be no better time for Reed to make noise than Monday night.

I have Coby Fleener seated at the No.13 spot this week. He’s a borderline starter taking on a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a better than 78 percent completion rate. It’s a great matchup, but always tough to gauge since Brees can really distribute the ball and has a lot of mouths to feed.

I have moved Chargers tight end Hunter Henry down to the 23rd spot. Rivers is a gunslinger and with receivers like Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, running back Melvin Gordon, and the other tight end Antonio Gates, just too many cooks in the kitchen. Henry will be tough to trust until we see more consistent involvement in the pass game; zero catches and zero targets.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega