FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY NIGHT FF QUICK TAKES (WEEK 10)

November 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Friday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Quick Takes

Passers that are Slingin It

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) The Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott has been on a heater over his last three starts. He is completing 71.4% of his passes averaging 316.7 yards passing per game with 8 touchdowns and a passer rating of 120.73. Prescott and the Cowboys have won two of their last three, falling just short last week against the Eagles. This week with a home tilt against the Giants, Prescott should be considered mid-to-low QB-1.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) The Bengals passer has been on a roll of late finishing in the Top-10 fantasy quarterbacks for the week in three of his last four starts. Through his last four games Burrow is averaging 283.2 yards passing, completing 76.9% of his passes while tossing 10 touchdowns. With a matchup against the Texans secondary ranked 24th against the pass, Burrow is locked in as a low-end QB-1 this week.

Sam Howell (Commanders) The Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been slinging it pretty good over his last three games. During this span Howell has averaged 323.7 yards passing per game with completing over 65% of his passes. With quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa on a bye, Howell is in play this week as a low end QB-1 starter.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 7 STARTS & SITS

October 21st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Week 7 Starts & Sits

The available options off the Wire or from the free agent pool may feel scarce this week with six teams (Cincinnati, Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, Dallas, and New York Jets) on byes, but there are still plenty of streaming options available to fill lineup holes. With CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Derrick Henry, and others taking the week off, fantasy managers will have to check in every nook and turn over every stone to find some fantasy value in Week 7.

Well, that’s why I am doing here. In my search under rocks and behind opened doors, here’s what I have found for the Week 7 slate.

Week 7 Starts

The Passers

Sam Howell (Commanders) Howell has been the fantasy QB3 the past two weeks passing for 539 yards with 5 touchdowns. A Week 7 matchup against a middle of the pack Giants defense puts Howell on the streaming radar.

Jordan Love (Packers) With the Packers coming off their Week 6 bye, Love and company are on the road at Denver. Love did not look good in his last game, back in Week 5, but nothing spells get-well better than the Broncos defense. The Broncos defense has allowed a top-7 performance to opposing quarterbacks in 3 of their last 4 games. The Pack are getting healthy with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones expected to be available, Love is in the streaming mix this week.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) Mayfield versus the Falcons this week would be more of a reach play for fantasy managers in most leagues. The Falcons have allowed 4 passing touchdowns the past two weeks and Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans is now a couple of weeks removed from his hamstring injury before the team’s bye. With a healthier Evans, these two should hook-up for a score.

The Ball Carriers

Brian Robinson Jr (Commanders) Facing the Giants defense that is allowing more than 5-yards per carry this season, including over 140 yards on the ground per game for the last four weeks, Robinson Jr figures to get plenty of work. He’ll be a mid-to-high RB2 this week.

Jerome Ford (Browns) Over the past four weeks, the Colts defense has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Browns running back Jerome Ford should find plenty of success this week. Consider him a strong RB2 this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) The Patriots offense would like to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands, so it’s safe to expect a heavy dose of the run game. In this one Stevenson is the preferred option in the Patriots backfield, now off the injury report. Facing the Bills defense that has been rolled the past two weeks surrendering over 250 yards on the ground and over 4 yards per carry. Stevenson figures as a back-end RB2 this week.

The Pass Catchers

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) The Seahawks secondary has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Brown has been targeted 31 times over his last three games. This week Hollywood shows up.

Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants) The Giants receiver has been seeing a steady diet of targets  the past several weeks. In his last three games he’s been targeted 20 times, including 8 in Week 6. Over the past four weeks the Commanders defense has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing receivers. This matchup sits well for Robinson, he’s a WR3/flex play this week.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) I like this kid a lot this week against the Lions. He’s the clear number one and over the past three weeks, he’s getting 7.7 targets, 4.7 receptions, 59.7 yards per game. Over their last two games the Lions defense has allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing receivers. Flowers is a borderline WR2/WR3 play this week.

Mecole Hardman (Chiefs) Having just been traded back to his old team, Hardman could be a sneaky sleeper play this week. For weeks he was comatose in New York (Jeets), but he returns to a Chiefs team that has yet to find their big play receiver this season.

The tight ends

Cade Otton (Buccaneers) The Bucs have not gotten much production from the tight end spot this season, but fantasy managers with few options might want to take a flier on Otton this week when he faces the Falcons. The Falcons defense has had some trouble this season with the tight ends, allowing the 7th most fantasy points. With fewer options this week Otton, a boom or bust candidate, could score his second touchdown of the season on Sunday.

Michael Mayer (Raiders) Mayer is coming off his most productive game this season a week ago against the Patriots. With Brian Hoyer getting the start for injured Jimmy Garappolo against the Bears this Sunday, Mayer could be in line for continued success. The Bears have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past 4 weeks. Mayer could crack TE-1 scoring this week.

My Week 7 Sits

Russell Wilson (Broncos-QB) The Broncos play host this week and Wilson will get a taste of the Packers defense that allows the 5th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is coming off a poor Week 6 (Thursday night) showing and fantasy managers would be better served to steer clear.

Gus Edwards (Ravens-RB) Already in a crowded backfield that includes quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens running back could struggle this week to find running room against the Lions. The Lions defense allows the 2nd fewest yards per carry and the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. 

Ram backfield - With Kyren Williams placed on IR, the Rams have added pieces and elevated players. It’s just a tough situation to predict and with the return of Cooper Kupp, head coach Sean McVay may place the ball in the hands of quarterback Matt Stafford. I’m avoiding this situation altogether.

Josh Downs (Colts-WR) Downs has been seeing steady work, but this week he draws a tough matchup against a very good Browns defense. The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points, receptions, and receiving yards to wide receivers this season. I am looking elsewhere this week.

Elijah Moore (Browns) Facing the Colts this week, Moore’s outlook is not good. First he’s only caught 6 passes for 39 yards the past two weeks, there’s uncertainty at the quarterback position this week (although Watson may return), and the Colts have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers the past 4 weeks. I’m moving along here.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEEKLY WAIVER WIRE

October 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

The Fantasy Football season can be tumultuous at best and this season has been no different. The past couple of weeks have seen some big names go down, names that include Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, Anthony Richardson, Christian McCaffrey, and Justin Fields. 

As fantasy managers find a way to navigate through the wilderness that is fantasy football season, the Week 7 waiver wire does offer some relief. The pickings aren’t plentiful but the Wire has some value.

The Niners running back Jordan Mason remains the top of the list for pickups this week. Rostered in only 1.5% of ESPN leagues, he definitely looks like the Pickup of the week, especially for Christian McCaffrey owners. When CMC went down on Sunday Mason was inserted as the featured back handling backfield duties, out-snapping teammate Elijah Mitchell 15-7. Mason figures to be the first in line for work if CMC misses any time.

Rostered in only 30.4% of ESPN, the Chiefs rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice should remain a high priority on this week’s waiver wires. Over the past four weeks he has separated himself as the top receiver in KC with 16 receptions (21 targets) for 196 yards receiving and a score. The production continues to increase and he’s part of the Chiefs offense. He’s coming off a 4-receptions, 72 yards receiving performance and has a date with the Chargers in week 7.

Desmond Ridder (Falcons-QB) The Falcons 2nd year quarterback has been playing well of late. The past two weeks he's been the fantasy QB5, averaging 318 passing yards and two touchdowns per game. Consider him a solid play to fill the bye week.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) Another bye week filler, the Commanders quarterback has been very good over the past three weeks. Rostered in only 19.1% of ESPN leagues, Howell has been the fantasy QB5 averaging more than 275 yards passing and 2 touchdowns in his last three games.

Craig Reynolds (Lions-RB) With the Lions losing running back David Montgomery for multiple weeks, Reynolds is expected to slot in what will likely be a committee with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (once he returns). For Montgomery owners, Reynolds can offer some relief as an RB3 or possible flex play.

Latavius Murray (Bills-RB) - Murray seems to be in a full blown timeshare with starter James Cook (30 snaps each in Week 6). While there still seems to be a disparity in production between the two, Murray is closing the gap in opportunities 15 touches to Cook’s 23 the past two weeks. For now Murray remains a cuff, he has yet to reach standalone value.

Curtis Samuel (Commanders-WR) Only rostered in 28.6% ESPN leagues, Samuel is the Commanders leading receiver with 10 receptions, 107 receiving yards and two scores over the last two weeks. Over the past three weeks he’s seen a steady diet of targets (19) so his prospect of continued success looks good. At the very least a nice streaming option to get thru the byes.

Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants-WR) The Giants receiver is quickly becoming relevant, with 18 receptions for 120 yards receiving over his last three games. He’s worthy of flex value, but the continued increased usage and production and low ownership (5.2% of ESPN leagues) means he should be grabbed now.

Luke Musgrave (Packers-TE) Prior to the Packers Week 6 bye, the rookie is coming off one of his better showings this season. Musgrave seems to be a boom or bust candidate catching 6 passes in week 3 & 5, but just one in week 4. He’s likely a stash at the moment and more of a flier play through the byes in deeper leagues.

Michael Mayer (Raiders-TE) Finally utilized in the passing game in Week 6, Mayer collected 5 passes for 75 yards receiving on 6 targets. He should be on fantasy manager radars.

James Robinson (Packers-RB) Just signed by the Packers this week, Robinson’s addition sounds like a call to bench running back AJ Dillon. Starter Aaron Jones is still on the mend and Dillon has not been the answer in his absence. The team could just be adding depth, but Robinson could offer some value at the moment. It's a little too soon to start hyping him up, so he’s a stash candidate for now.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK6)

October 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting 

(Week 6 Takeaways)

There was plenty to take notice of from the games just played. Here’s a look back at week 6 and some fantasy football notes that I believe are worth a take or two.

Jared Goff (Lions-QB) The Lions starter has been better than good over the past three weeks averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game. In his last two starts he’s been even better, averaging 36 pass attempts, 24.9 fantasy points per game, while passing for 294.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. A solid streamer, maybe even starter in deeper leagues.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) The Commanders signal caller has been pretty good for fantasy managers the past couple of weeks. Over his last two starts, Howell is averaging 37 pass attempts, a completion rate of 70.3%, 269.5 yards passing, 2.5 touchdown passes, and 21.9 fantasy points. A great streaming options to get through the byes.

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins-RB) Handling lead back duties in week 6 and expected to continue in this role for the near future, Mostert is cementing himself as a weekly must-start. In his last two starts he has totaled 4 touchdowns (3 run, 1 receive), averaged over 100 yards of offense, and averaged 25 fantasy points per game. He's locked into weekly lineups.

Alvin Kamara (Saints-RB) Over the last two weeks, the Saints running back is the fantasy RB7. He’s averaging 20.5 rush attempts, 74 yards rushing, 26.5 yards receiving, 5 receptions, and 18 fantasy points per game. Another weekly lock and a reliable DFS play.

Travis Etienne Jr (Jaguars-RB) The Jaguars running back has been stellar for fantasy managers over the last two weeks leading all ball carriers in fantasy scoring. Over his past two games, Etienne Jr has averaged 22 rushing attempts, 95.5 yards rushing, 3.5 receptions, 38 yards receiving, two touchdowns, and 29.9 fantasy points per game. A DFS anchor and weekly starter.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions-WR) The Lions wide receiver has been about the most consistent this season. He suffered an abdomen injury that forced him to miss Week 5, but this season St. Brown has caught at least 5 passes in all of his games, including 26 receptions in his last three. He's locked in every week.

Adam Thielen (Panthers-WR) The Old man in Carolina has found the fountain of youth this season. Thielen is currently the fantasy WR6 (points per game) this season and he’s averaging 11.3 targets, 9.7 receptions, 99.3 yards receiving, and 23.8 fantasy points the past three weeks. H has to be started every week.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins-WR) Living in the shadow of Tyreek Hills the Dolphins other wide receiver has been steady the past couple of weeks. In his last two games, Waddle is averaging 9.5 targets, 6 receptions, 43 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 16.3 fantasy points. His upside makes it difficult to sit him anytime, a lineup staple.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons-TE) The Falcons tight end is starting to come alive this season averaging 15 fantasy points in his last two. Pitts has posted back-to-back strong outings with 11 receptions, 130 yards receiving, combined with one touchdown. He's back in the weekly starter conversation now.

Dalton Schultz (Texans-TE) The Texans tight end has been heating up of late. Schultz has scored in three straight and in his last two games he’s averaging 8.5 targets per game, tied for 2nd most among tight ends. He's a safe starter.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES WEEK 6

October 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

NFL Sunday Week 6:

Sunday Heroes

A big week of great performances once again and it’s time to shine a light on some of the fantasy Studs on Sunday. These are some of the dudes we wished we had in our lineups.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) The Commanders quarterback was brilliant for fantasy managers on Sunday against the Falcons. Howell only completed 14 of 23 passes (60.6% completion rate) for 151 yards, but he also connected on three scores. He finished the week as the fantasy QB6.

Kyren Williams (Rams-RB) The Rams running back was a stud on Sunday against the Cardinals. Williams toted the rock 20 times rushing for 158 yards on the ground and adding one rushing touchdown. Williams finished the week as the fantasy RB3.

Cooper Kupp (Rams-WR) The Rams wide receiver is back and looks to be as good as ever. Kupp was once again the leading receiver for the Rams on Sunday, securing 7 passes for 148 yards receiving and a touchdown. Kupp was the fantasy WR4 for the week.

Dalton Schultz (Texans-TE) The Texans tight end was a busy pass catcher on Sunday. Schultz was targeted 7 times and hauled in 4 passes for 61 yards receiving and a touchdown. He finished the week as the fantasy TE2 for the week.

Jordan Hicks (Vikings-LB) The Vikings linebacker was a true menace in week 6 on Sunday. Hicks recorded 5 solo tackles, 5 assists, one pass defense, one interception, one fumble recovery, and added a defensive touchdown to lead the Vikes.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 6 STARTS & SITS

October 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 6: 

Starts & Sits

Each week fantasy owners are going to be faced with the decision of whether to start or sit some of the fringe players whose fantasy scoring of late and for the season is not quite on par as a starter. A slow start this season, a series of bad matchups, or just over-hyped, whatever the reason for the fringe players performances owners will still need to make the call to roll the dice or move along.

There are 14 games on the remaining schedule for Week 6 and 13 are on the slate for Sunday. And don’t forget the early game in London between the Ravens and Titans. Here are my Week 6, Starts and Sits.

Week 6 Starts

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - The Jaguars quarterback has yet to break out this season, but he did have one of his best games for yards last week, passing for over 300-yards. Lawrence will square off against a Colts defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings passer will face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most passing yards this season and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) - He’s coming off a strong Week 5 performance and should have his full complement of weapons this week with the return of Mike Evans.

Sam Howell (Commanders) - In this road matchup with the Falcons, Howell and the Commanders may have to lean more on the passing game. 92 pass attempts for Howell in his past two starts.

Kyren Williams (Rams) - Williams is the fantasy RB11. This week he gets the Cardinals run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) - The Eagles runner has cooled off the past couple of weeks, but a matchup with the Jets could get things heated once again. Jets allow over 4.0 yards per carry and the 9th most fantasy points to opposing runners.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) - The Ravens receiver has been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks and is averaging double digit fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Coming off his best game of the season in week 5 with 8 receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets, Hopkins will look to keep it going against a Ravens secondary that has allowed 6th most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end has been steady averaging 7 targets per game for the last three weeks.

 

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - Ertz has a nice matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Week 6 Sits

Jared Goff (Lions) - A tough road matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The Texans starter came back to earth last week and has another tough matchup this week against the Saints defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) - White has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s best run defenses this season. The Lions have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and 3rd fewest per carry this season.

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (Browns) - Without their starting quarterback, this offense could really struggle and with the 49ers defense playing well, I just don’t trust this backfield.

Amari Cooper (Browns) - It’s not enough that the Browns are facing the 49ers (4th best defense in the league), but they will be without starter Deshaun Watson. It’s hard to sit Cooper, but I wouldn't expect much from him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) - After a hot start this season, Henry has gone cold along with the Patriots offense. For now the bench is the best place until the offense starts to show more consistency.

Darren Waller (Giants) - The Giants will be without the services of starting quarterback Daniel Jones and Waller (groin) popped up on the injury report this week.  It will be tough to trust him if he is able to play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It may not be one of the marquee matchups of the NFL Thursday Night lineup, but this meeting between the Bears and Commanders will carry a bit of fantasy cache for owners. There are still plenty of fantasy favorites involved in this one and there is just enough lack of defense for this to be interesting.

The Commanders up front on the defensive side and going to have their hands full trying to contain the Bears quarterback Justin Fields. On the other side, after seeing how the Broncos were able to pass on the Bears secondary last week, the Commanders receivers could find great success. 

Neither defense has been stellar this season against the run, the Bears are ranked 18th while the Commanders are ranked 21st. While the Bears are ranked 8th in yards per carry average, the Commanders have struggled here ranked 26th, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Commanders backfield may struggle to find holes in the ground attack, but Khalil Herbert and company could enjoy a little running room.

With all of these keys to consider, here are the Five I will drive with, on Thursday Night,.

Thursday's Take Five;

1. Sam Howell (QB) - The Commanders quarterback is coming off strong showing last week against a pretty good Eagles defense and should be able to enjoy similar success tonight against the Bears 27th ranked pass defense. Howell has been a borderline QB-1 (12-team formats) in three of his four starts this season. The Bears allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, so the prospect of number four tonight looks good.

2. Terry McLaurin (WR) - Although his numbers may be slightly down through four weeks, the Commanders receiver is still one of the league’s best. Opposing receivers have had success finding the endzone against the Bears defense. McLaurin leads the team with 26 targets and 21 receptions (an 80.8% success rate). He’ll be featured tonight and should have success. (DK-My Captain)

3. Commanders (DST) - The Commanders defense is pretty good, but they have not played all that well this season. While the Bears offense is coming off a strong showing against the Broncos last week, it was the Broncos defense. The Commanders are in the top 3rd with 13 sacks, 29 QB hits, and 84 completions allowed this season and could give Fields trouble in the pocket. The defense also ranks 1st this season with 27 tackles for loss.

4. Justin Fields (QB) - It sounds like it could be a long day for Fields, but it just might be the opposite. With the troubles the Bears could have throwing the ball, look for Fields to exploit the defense with his legs. The Commanders have surrendered the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Expect Fields to do some damage on the ground and possibly visit the end zone.

5. Cole Kmet (TE) - The Bears tight end is tied for the team lead with 24 targets. He is easily one of Fields' favorites and dependable targets. He’s coming off a big game last week where he scored twice against the Broncos and some of that momentum could carry into tonight. I like Cole to find pay dirt in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega