FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEEKLY WAIVER WIRE

November 7th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

Noah Brown (Texans) The former Cowboys wide receiver had a welcome to the party kind of game on Sunday blowing up for 153 yards receiving with a score. Brown is barely owned in ESPN Fantasy Leagues (0.9% rostered) and should be considered a stash candidate and low end flex option with a potential high ceiling.

Keaton Mitchell (Ravens) The Ravens rookie running back had the hot hand on Sunday and exploded for 138 yards rushing on just 9 carries. He’ll figure to see more opportunities going forward and only owned in 1.0% of ESPN Leagues; he's another stash candidate (especially in Dynasty).

Tank Dell (Texans) The Texans rookie wide receiver Tank Dell is owned in just over half (55.7%) of ESPN Leagues), though he seems to be a true boom or bust fantasy play, if he’s available he has a tremendous ceiling and should be owned.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals) The Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd is only owned in 47.7% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues and over his last three games he’s been a solid fantasy WR3. With the Bengals offense starting to heat up and Ja’Marr Chase coming out of Week 9 a little dinged up, Boyd should be on fantasy rosters.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) Even though it may not have looked pretty, the Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing in fantasy starter territory over the past several weeks. During his past three starts Mayfield has averaged 259 yards passing with 5 touchdowns. He’s only owned in 45.4% of ESPN Leagues and offers some streaming value through the remaining Byes.

Odell Beckham Jr (Ravens) After finally reaching paydirt for the first time this season the Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr turned in his best game. OBJ hauled in 5 passes for 56 yards receiving and a touchdown. OBJ is only owned in 42.4% of ESPN Leagues and should be owned. As he starts to look more like the old OBJ, he has a chance for better games being a part of the Ravens 4th best offense in the league.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) The Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (fantasy TE14) blew up on Sunday, recording 5 catches for 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. After a quiet couple of games Smith found his mojo in Week 9. Smith has seen at least 5 or more targets in 6 of his last 8 games this season. He remains involved in the Falcons passing game and only owned in 27.1% of ESPN Fantasy games, he should be owned.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots) Targeted 7 times on Sunday, the Patriots wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster had his busiest game this season, since Week 1. Smith-Schuster finished as the fantasy WR25 for the week.  JuJu is only owned in 29.9% ESPN Fantasy Leagues and while his Week 9 performance wasn’t a breakout, he may offer some relief as a streaming option through the Byes.

Demario douglas (Patriots) The better option out of Foxboro is the Patriots rookie receiver Demario Douglas. Only owned in 21.9% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues, Douglas has been seeing a steady diet of at least 6 or more targets over the past three weeks. His ceiling has not been exceptionally high, but his floor has been steady and safe as a flex play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 6 STARTS & SITS

October 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 6: 

Starts & Sits

Each week fantasy owners are going to be faced with the decision of whether to start or sit some of the fringe players whose fantasy scoring of late and for the season is not quite on par as a starter. A slow start this season, a series of bad matchups, or just over-hyped, whatever the reason for the fringe players performances owners will still need to make the call to roll the dice or move along.

There are 14 games on the remaining schedule for Week 6 and 13 are on the slate for Sunday. And don’t forget the early game in London between the Ravens and Titans. Here are my Week 6, Starts and Sits.

Week 6 Starts

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - The Jaguars quarterback has yet to break out this season, but he did have one of his best games for yards last week, passing for over 300-yards. Lawrence will square off against a Colts defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings passer will face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most passing yards this season and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) - He’s coming off a strong Week 5 performance and should have his full complement of weapons this week with the return of Mike Evans.

Sam Howell (Commanders) - In this road matchup with the Falcons, Howell and the Commanders may have to lean more on the passing game. 92 pass attempts for Howell in his past two starts.

Kyren Williams (Rams) - Williams is the fantasy RB11. This week he gets the Cardinals run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) - The Eagles runner has cooled off the past couple of weeks, but a matchup with the Jets could get things heated once again. Jets allow over 4.0 yards per carry and the 9th most fantasy points to opposing runners.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) - The Ravens receiver has been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks and is averaging double digit fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Coming off his best game of the season in week 5 with 8 receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets, Hopkins will look to keep it going against a Ravens secondary that has allowed 6th most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end has been steady averaging 7 targets per game for the last three weeks.

 

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - Ertz has a nice matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Week 6 Sits

Jared Goff (Lions) - A tough road matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The Texans starter came back to earth last week and has another tough matchup this week against the Saints defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) - White has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s best run defenses this season. The Lions have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and 3rd fewest per carry this season.

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (Browns) - Without their starting quarterback, this offense could really struggle and with the 49ers defense playing well, I just don’t trust this backfield.

Amari Cooper (Browns) - It’s not enough that the Browns are facing the 49ers (4th best defense in the league), but they will be without starter Deshaun Watson. It’s hard to sit Cooper, but I wouldn't expect much from him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) - After a hot start this season, Henry has gone cold along with the Patriots offense. For now the bench is the best place until the offense starts to show more consistency.

Darren Waller (Giants) - The Giants will be without the services of starting quarterback Daniel Jones and Waller (groin) popped up on the injury report this week.  It will be tough to trust him if he is able to play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 5 SITS

October 7th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 5

Sit’Ems

There is a lot to navigate in week 5 with a lot of notable injuries to work around, but just as important as knowing who to insert into your lineup, you have to know who to avoid and sit. Injuries play a part, just as much as matchups when making the start/sit decision.

These are your Week 5 notable injuries;

Jimmy Garappolo (concussion) P

Joe Burrow (calf) Q

Derek Carr (shoulder) Q

Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) D

Javonte Williams (quad) Q

Aaron Jones (hamstring) Q

Saquon Barkley (ankle) Q

Davante Adams (shoulder) Q

Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) D

Tee Higgins (ribs) O

Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) O

These are my Week 5 notable sits.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) - We’ve now had a four week sample size of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He has not looked sharp and the offense has struggled. While it is understandable, Burrow has been dealing with a calf injury, this fantasy owner is growing impatient with the dismal production.

Burrow still has his big play weapon in Ja’Marr Chase available, but after four weeks with little to show, it is probably best for now to move Joe Cool to your bench. We’ll need to see better play from Joe Cool and good health before we can trust him. Sit Burrow.

Najee Harris (Steelers) - Just like Burrow, the Steelers running back Najee Harris has not been productive through the first four weeks and this fantasy owner is getting restless. His week 5 matchup against the Ravens does not look any better and chances are it will be more of the same.

The Ravens defense is ranked 13th against the run, have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, and have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown this season. At this juncture it would be wise to move Harris to your bench until we see better offensive line play and production from the Steelers offense. Sit Harris for week 5.

The Patriots receivers - If you are looking for help at the wide receiver spot for Week 5, you should probably avoid the New England receivers. Other than Kendrick Bourne’s big week one when he scored twice, only one other Patriot receiver has topped double digit fantasy points and that was DeVante Parker with 11.6 (ppr).

The passing game has been inconsistent and unreliable paired with poor play from the QB position. Until Belichick and company can get this rectified, all Patriots receivers should be avoided. Fantasy owners should just move along. Sit the Patriots.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) - There is no question that the Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has talent and ability, but it is just not showing up on the field. Through four weeks, Pitts has yet to score in double digit fantasy points.

Through four games Pitts is actually the second leading receiver at the tight end position for the Falcons. He has been targeted 21 times, has caught 11 passes for 121 yards receiving, averaging less than 6 fantasy points per game in ppr format. Pitts has ability and skill, but fantasy owners are just not seeing it on the field, so for the time being leave Pitts on your bench until we see improved numbers.

If you are going to own a Falcons tight end, Jonnu Smith is the tight end to own. Sit Pitts.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING

October 3rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

With week 4 in the books, a quick look back at what transpired might offer some hints as to what is to come and what could be. I don’t have a crystal ball nor am I able to read any tea leaves, but after watching the games on NFL Sunday week 4, I can offer some observations to consider moving forward.

Raheem Mostert fumbles twice

It’s interesting to note the two fumbles, considering the rookie De’Von Achane’s star is not only on the rise, but it is a fireball barreling towards earth. Achane has been an explosive and dominant runner. Achane has been a part of the rotation the past two weeks and has totaled 304 yards rushing; his season total of 309 yards leads the AFC. He has been the dynamite in the Dolphins backfield, with the loudest bang. I am not a betting man, but I would be willing to wager that week 5, it will be Achane getting some early work and dominating the usage on the ground. 

McLaughlin effective on Sunday

For the Broncos, not a lot has been going right for them this season, but they did squeak out a win in week 4. And although their starting running back Javonte Williams exited the game with a hip injury, the Broncos found a silver lining in rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. The rookie runner finished the week as the fantasy RB10, registering 104 yards of offense, averaging over 10-yards per touch. He was more than an effective fill-in, and after playing as well as he did McLaughlin has likely worked himself into a fixed role in the offense, and even greater should Williams miss any time. He’ll be hot pick up off the Waiver wire this week.

Jones on pitch count

Last week Packers running back Aaron Jones was obviously on a pitch count playing in just 20 snaps (35.1% of the available snaps). His appearance last week was a disaster for fantasy owners that were not aware of the snap count limitation. Jones totaled just 14 yards with one reception for the evening. Fantasy owners will need to see him back as a full participant in practice before they can trust him on Sunday. Since the Packers played on Thursday, Jones will have a few extra days to continue to heal up and return closer to 100%.

Cam Akers runs well in cameo appearance

There wasn’t much to note in the Vikings matchup with Carolina on Sunday. A non-prolific day for Cousins and the passing game, but of course even when Kirk struggles, Justin Jefferson still has a JJ Fantasy day. In the backfield however, it is worth noting one of the newest Vikings, running back Cam Akers, did see the field. Akers was on the field for 14 snaps and was featured in half with 7 touches, averaging over 7 yards per touch. It’s too early to make much of this, especially since starting running back Alexander Mattison had another solid outing. For now Akers is worth stashing as a cuff to Alexander.

Jonnu is more productive

The Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (20 targets in 2023) has been a fantasy surprise this season. While he pitched a donut in week one, he has been a Top-10 fantasy tight end since, overshadowing his teammate Kyle Pitts (21 targets in 2023). Over the past three weeks, Smith has caught 15 passes (ranks tied for 3rd most among tight ends) and registered 179 receiving yards (ranks 3rd most). During this span Smith has been the fantasy TE8, while Pitts is fantasy 29. For the season Smith has more receptions and yards receiving (than Pitts) and should be the tight end owned in fantasy. 

Olave just one catch on Sunday

The Saints offense just looked bad on Sunday and it was apparent that quarterback Derek Carr was not quite right. As a result wide receiver Chris Olave was a non-factor in week 4, being targeted six times and recording a single catch for 4 yards. Fantasy owners can’t afford to sit Olave (just too much talent and ceiling there), so they need to check the practice reports on Carr this week. He needs to be healthy before they can expect Olave to return to his rightful place among fantasy starters.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 4

October 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Afternoon Edition

NFL Sunday Week 4:

Sunday’s Heroes

Another wild weekend in the NFL. 70 points weren’t scored in any games this weekend, but there were plenty of close games, fantastic finishes, Overtime thrillers, and one team returning back to earth.

As is the case in the NFL every weekend there are performances to remember. In Buffalo there were the five touchdowns by Josh Allen (4 pass, 1 run), in Tennessee the return of King Henry (122 yards rushing and a touchdown), and in Indianapolis the Legend of Puka continues (9 receptions, 163 yards receiving, and a touchdown). NFL Sunday Week 4 was just another great day filled with great performances by some great players.

These are just some of those NFL Week 4 Sunday Heroes.

QB, Anthony Richardson (Colts) - In week 4 Richardson was special. He led the Colts back from a 23-point deficit and did it with both his arm and legs. Richardson passed for 200 yards and threw two touchdowns in the comeback, while rushing for 56 yards and scored another touchdown. For the second time this season he has finished as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback, in week 4 he finished the day as the fantasy QB2. There’s some risk of injury with Richardson that we’ve seen this season, but he’s entered the must-start conversation with his leg production.

RB, Kyren Williams (Rams) - The Rams running back was the fantasy RB3 on Sunday, posting Top-10 fantasy numbers for the third time in four games. Against the Colts Williams rushed for 103 yards, added two rushing touchdowns, while catching three passes for another 24 yards receiving. His 28 touches (25 carries and three receptions) were his highest total for the season. We’ve seen enough from Williams this season, he’s the lead back in Los Angeles and a must-start.

WR, Nico Collins (Texans) - The Texans wide receiver rose from the week 3 ashes and had another solid performance on Sunday. Collins has been terrific much of the season and in Week 4 he did not disappoint, putting up Top-3 fantasy receiver numbers. The Texans wideout was targeted 9 times, recording 7 receptions for 168 yards receiving and two touchdowns. A bounce back performance for Nico and a definitive statement, he’s a WR-1, and should be in your lineup every week.

TE, Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons other tight end Jonnu Smith has been surprisingly good for fantasy owners this season. On Sunday he connected with the Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder for 6 receptions, for 95 yards receiving, finishing the day as fantasy TE3. This season Smith has been targeted 20 times (one fewer than tight end Kyle Pitts) and has more receptions (15) and yards receiving (179) than teammate Pitts. Jonnu may be the tight end to start in Atlanta.

IDP-DL, Maxx Crosby (Raiders) - The Raiders pass rushing defensive end had an afternoon on Sunday week 4. Crosby was a disruptor all afternoon, recording 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 2 tackles for loss. His engine had no quit.

IDP-LB, Kahlil Mack (Chargers) - The Chargers pass rush specialist was in full beast mode on Sunday terrorizing the Raiders rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell. Mack sacked the quarterback six times and added 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 1 pass defense and 2 forced fumbles. He was a complete terror on Sunday.

IDP-DB, Antoine Winfield Jr (Buccaneers) - The Buccaneers defensive back was big on the day, causing mischief and raising havoc on the field. Winfield was busy on the afternoon recording 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 pass defense, 1 forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega