FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING

October 3rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

With week 4 in the books, a quick look back at what transpired might offer some hints as to what is to come and what could be. I don’t have a crystal ball nor am I able to read any tea leaves, but after watching the games on NFL Sunday week 4, I can offer some observations to consider moving forward.

Raheem Mostert fumbles twice

It’s interesting to note the two fumbles, considering the rookie De’Von Achane’s star is not only on the rise, but it is a fireball barreling towards earth. Achane has been an explosive and dominant runner. Achane has been a part of the rotation the past two weeks and has totaled 304 yards rushing; his season total of 309 yards leads the AFC. He has been the dynamite in the Dolphins backfield, with the loudest bang. I am not a betting man, but I would be willing to wager that week 5, it will be Achane getting some early work and dominating the usage on the ground. 

McLaughlin effective on Sunday

For the Broncos, not a lot has been going right for them this season, but they did squeak out a win in week 4. And although their starting running back Javonte Williams exited the game with a hip injury, the Broncos found a silver lining in rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. The rookie runner finished the week as the fantasy RB10, registering 104 yards of offense, averaging over 10-yards per touch. He was more than an effective fill-in, and after playing as well as he did McLaughlin has likely worked himself into a fixed role in the offense, and even greater should Williams miss any time. He’ll be hot pick up off the Waiver wire this week.

Jones on pitch count

Last week Packers running back Aaron Jones was obviously on a pitch count playing in just 20 snaps (35.1% of the available snaps). His appearance last week was a disaster for fantasy owners that were not aware of the snap count limitation. Jones totaled just 14 yards with one reception for the evening. Fantasy owners will need to see him back as a full participant in practice before they can trust him on Sunday. Since the Packers played on Thursday, Jones will have a few extra days to continue to heal up and return closer to 100%.

Cam Akers runs well in cameo appearance

There wasn’t much to note in the Vikings matchup with Carolina on Sunday. A non-prolific day for Cousins and the passing game, but of course even when Kirk struggles, Justin Jefferson still has a JJ Fantasy day. In the backfield however, it is worth noting one of the newest Vikings, running back Cam Akers, did see the field. Akers was on the field for 14 snaps and was featured in half with 7 touches, averaging over 7 yards per touch. It’s too early to make much of this, especially since starting running back Alexander Mattison had another solid outing. For now Akers is worth stashing as a cuff to Alexander.

Jonnu is more productive

The Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (20 targets in 2023) has been a fantasy surprise this season. While he pitched a donut in week one, he has been a Top-10 fantasy tight end since, overshadowing his teammate Kyle Pitts (21 targets in 2023). Over the past three weeks, Smith has caught 15 passes (ranks tied for 3rd most among tight ends) and registered 179 receiving yards (ranks 3rd most). During this span Smith has been the fantasy TE8, while Pitts is fantasy 29. For the season Smith has more receptions and yards receiving (than Pitts) and should be the tight end owned in fantasy. 

Olave just one catch on Sunday

The Saints offense just looked bad on Sunday and it was apparent that quarterback Derek Carr was not quite right. As a result wide receiver Chris Olave was a non-factor in week 4, being targeted six times and recording a single catch for 4 yards. Fantasy owners can’t afford to sit Olave (just too much talent and ceiling there), so they need to check the practice reports on Carr this week. He needs to be healthy before they can expect Olave to return to his rightful place among fantasy starters.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 10th, 2023

Sunday Morning Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five 

(Draft Kings)

QB-Justin Herbert, LAC ($6,900) - Love the matchup here against the Dolphins. A lot of offense in this one and with the Chargers at home Herbert is a strong play (Dolphins D ranked 31st versus fantasy QB last season). Herbert threw for over 4,700 yards and tossed 25 touchdowns in 2022. Great play today.

RB-Travis Etienne Jr, JAC ($6,900) - At his price, I love Etienne. I like the Jags in this one and believe Etienne could be featured down the stretch to close this one out. Either way, he should be in line for a busy and productive day against the Colts (ranked 22nd versus RBs in 2022).

WR-Chris Godwin, TBB ($5,900) - Godwin seems like a great value safe play. Last season he corralled 104 balls on 142 targets. Even though the team made a change at quarterback in the offseason, expect Godwin to get plenty of work against a suspect Vikings secondary (ranked 31st versus WRs in 2022).

WR-Mike Williams, LAC ($5,700) - This matchup is in line to be a shootout and at his cost, Williams is a great play to pair up with Herbert. Last season against the Phins in week 14, Williams grabbed 6 passes for 116 yards and a score. Strong play today.

TE-Juwan Johnson, NOS ($3,900) -  Johnson could be looking at a big day against the Titans today. Last season the Titans D ranked 30th versus opposing tight ends in fantasy. At his current value, Johnson looks like a great sneaky play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 2nd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 13 Favorite Plays

Kickoff Sunday for Week 13 is just over 12 hours away and I am still shuffling many of my lineups, as this is a huge weekend with a lot on the line. In several of my leagues, a win this week will go a long way (post-season baby). These aren’t necessarily players I have on my rosters, but these are players that I like in tomorrow’s matchups;

CJ Anderson/Devontae Booker; the boys in Bronco’s backfield should be busy tomorrow in a road matchup against the Dolphins. The run game will be the priority, even in a timeshare, these two should get plenty of work.

Adrian Peterson; I can’t imagine the Cardinals not leaning heavy on All-day in the home matchup with the Rams tomorrow. It should be a busy day for Adrian against the Rams 27th ranked run defense.

Keenan Allen; The Chargers receiver leads the team with 67 receptions and 97 yards. He has been big at times this season and tomorrow could be another one of those games. Allen has 23 receptions for 331 yards and 3 scores; he’s on fire and should continue the trend.

Mike Evans; The Buccaneers receiver has slid down the fantasy tree some this season, currently at the No.19 fantasy WR in PPR. Evans has yet to surpass the 100-yard receiving barrier this season, but with 22 targets in the past two weeks and an easy matchup this Sunday and big game looms.

Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end has a juicy matchup and he’s in a few of my lineups tomorrow. Fantasy owners can expect a strong game from Cook with starters Crabtree and Cooper out for Sunday.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Favorite Plays

It’s a critical weekend in the fantasy world in most season-long formats, with just two weeks left before the start of the fantasy playoffs. This Sunday’s slate of games will carry more weight and go a long way for those teetering on the brink. And with so much riding on Sunday, here are a few of the Not-the-Usual-Suspects to consider for those in need of a plug-and-play;

QB-Joe Flacco; The Ravens signal caller has been off the starting fantasy radar most of the season, turning in just four 200+ yards passing games and just two multiple touchdown performances. He’s been No-Go-Joe most of this season, but Sunday against the Texans Flacco could turn things around. The Texans have been awful against the pass all season long and over the past four weeks they have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the most passing yards and touchdowns. This will be a great week for Flacco to succeed.

RB-JD McKissic; I like the Seahawks matchup here against the Niners on Sunday and with running back Mike Davis doubtful the backfield remains wide open. McKissic is the team’s pass receiving specialist out of the backfield and in his last two games he’s averaged 10 touches per game and collected 9 receptions. In PPR formats especially, the Seahawks ball carrier will have flex appeal against a Niner’s defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and (tied for) the 8th most receptions to opposing running backs.

RB-Rex Burkhead; This pick is a little outside the box thinking in my opinion, but if you in need and looking the Patriots running back Rex Burkhead could fill the need. Locked in a timeshare with running back Dion Lewis, Burkhead is the more appealing in PPR formats. Burkhead has played a significant number of offensive snaps over the past several weeks and in his last three games he’s total 14 receptions for 116 receiving yards and a score, while adding 19 carries for 67 rushing yards. On Sunday he’ll lineup against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks.

WR-Jeremy Maclin; With Flacco expected to be highly successful this week against a struggling Texans secondary, Maclin figures to be one of the benefactors. Maclin is easily the team’s leading wideout in an otherwise less than impressive offense, leading in catches (31), yards (343), and tied for team lead in touchdowns (3). The good news, Maclin’s number is regularly called; he has 14 receptions on 19 targets in his last three games. Maclin is not looking at a monster game, but he could find paydirt and offer some fantasy help in week 12.

WR-Kenny Stills; the Dolphins wide receiver erupted last week for a huge game (7 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown) with quarterback Matt Moore under center. With starter Jay Cutler ruled out, Moore will get the nod and Stills is back in play in week 12. The Phins take on the Patriots who have allowed the most receptions and 9th most receiving yards to opposing receivers the past two weeks.

TE-Jared Cook; In what has been a down year for the Offense, the Raiders tight end Jared Cook has been a nice addition to the passing game. He is leading the team with 535 yards receiving through 10 games, but has only scored once. That all could change this Sunday matched up against a struggling Denver secondary. In their first matchup the Broncos defense held Cook in check with just 3 catches for 46 yards, but in the team’s past four games they have allowed the most receiving yards (348) and the most touchdowns (4) to opposing tight ends.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th, 2016
Friday afternoon Edition

Week 12 Fantasy Notes

As the fantasy playoffs approach, fantasy owners will need to be more precise and decisive with their lineups this week and next. When this season started, certain players were viewed as your starters, but recent performances could be shaking your confidence.

Take comfort owners as this week Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is set to bounce back big. After recent struggles, just one game over 15 fantasy points in his last 7 starts, Palmer will be facing a Falcons defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 2,970 yards passing (5th most) and 23 passing touchdowns (2nd most). Palmer has just two games this season with 3 or more touchdowns, but has passed for more than 300 yards four times. This Sunday against the Falcons, fantasy owners can expect Palmer to improve both of those numbers.

It’s unlikely anyone would even think of sitting Rams running back Todd Gurley, especially considering where he was likely selected in their respective fantasy draft, but his recent run of unspectacular has got to be getting tiresome. Well all that is likely to end this week in New Orleans. Gurley and Company will be making a trip to the Big Easy this week to take on the Saints and a defense that allows the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most). And where Gurley could be the biggest surprise is in the PPR format. Gurley is only the 19th ranked fantasy running back and has not been prominent in the pass game, but could see some extra targets this week as the Saints also allow the 5th most receiving yards to opposing running backs; great news for owners. Owners should expect 25 plus touches this week and a big day from the Rams ball carrier.

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega